2017 NBA Draft Thread

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The guy we have a 25% chance of getting would seemingly be Fultz. The most likely individual slot we pick at is 4th at 37% or so. Discussions of any of the Top-4 are legit conversation pieces imo. My concern is if we pick 4th and cannot land any of the Top-3......after that I see a significant dropoff in the certainty of the prospects.
According to this post, Tatum made an adjustment to his jumper that has increased his 3P % to over 40%. That would be something if true. Below is apparently the before and after comparison.


Still, I think Isaac would be #4, except we know DA hates skinny guys.
 

rhopkins2323

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Do you see anything different with Tatum's shot? It's tough because the camera angle is different on each shot and video playing simultaneously.
 

tims4wins

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Shot aside, Tatum has been beastly in the ACC Tournament thus far. On prime time tonight vs. UNC at 7pm ET on ESPN.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Do you see anything different with Tatum's shot? It's tough because the camera angle is different on each shot and video playing simultaneously.
His base is wider now and he lands with his feet more apart. I also think he used to jump backwards in his old shot.

If you click through the link, there's some additional video, though I think some of the video is out of order with the narrative.
 

LondonSox

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Right now I've got Fultz-Jackson-Ball in that order. It's a much different draft for me this year in that I'm having trouble falling in love with value guys like I did last year in LeVert, Zizic, Zubac, Siakam, and Dejounte Murray who I'd have drafted 10+ spots higher in some cases. Only 6-6 combo guard PJ Dozier of South Carolina fits into this group as my binkie. I also don't hate anyone as overrated as I did Bender last year going really high. It was such a natural and confident feeling I had projecting each of these players. The closest I've come are not liking the UK guards Monk and Fox for where they will likely be picked, still hate Ivan Rabb as a pro, don't like Kennard, hate Harry Giles, while viewing Justin Jackson of UNC and TJ Leaf as a value guys but they have both shot up some boards I'm watching.

I think Josh Hart is an NBA player in the late 1st/early 2nd who could be next years Malcolm Brogdon. One kid to keep an eye of is Creighton's Marcus Foster, a thick 6-3 combo guard who can flat out ball and is simply fearless. If I had to pick one guy to be an Isaiah Thomas as a 60th pick this would be the guy, he knows how to put the ball in the basket and has an underrated floor game. I can't complete a post without commenting on FSU's Baconator.......he's interesting to me late 1st/early 2nd as a Keith Bogans-type of wing if he can defend at this level so he could stick. I don't feel his ceiling is very high due to feeling he can't create his own shot against better athletes.....kinda reminds me of Marcus Smart at OkState where he bulldozed his way past smaller weaker players which he won't be able to do in the NBA while his shot and mechanics are wildly inconsistent.

I always have a good feel for certain foreign guys who stick out in both positive and negative ways........I don't yet see that Porzingis guy I drool over or the Hezonja kid where I wonder what the hell the scouts are seeing. Generally speaking I'm bulling on foreign bigs and bearish on the guards which has played out pretty well over the years so there's that to go by if nothing else.

One caveat......I'd say that a minimum of 33% of prospect "picks" panning out or not have to do with the organization that drafts them. How would Okafor, Noel, or Cauley-Stein have developed in our system or the Spurs? Was Dedmon really a better prospect than Noel or WCS? Would Brogdon or Jaylen look this good in Sacramento? The fit is crucial and we simply don't know where these kids are going to land. Right now it's guestimates on how their games translate to the pros and the role they will be asked to play.

I have the top three the same and the same order. After I think I have Smith with Tatum improving behind. After that I'm very divided, probably Isaac next, I don't see Fox as a lottery pick or Monk as a top 10, but they will both be top 10 I expect.
100% agree re Hart, he's a great late 1st early second guy who could Brogdon.
I still like Ntilikina still, I would take him over Fox 100 times out of 100. He's my foreign guy I think is underrated

If I were Giles I'd stay another year and see if I can show it's health related. If he comes out he's a guy to take a flier on last 1st early 2nd too, because it could be injury related. But I expect someone to reach before that.
 

Cellar-Door

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Big game from Tatum against UNC
Huge game from Markanen against UCLA
Another takeaway from that game... Lonzo Ball was straight garbage, Zona chewed him up on both ends of the floor.
 

BigSoxFan

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Big game from Tatum against UNC
Huge game from Markanen against UCLA
Another takeaway from that game... Lonzo Ball was straight garbage, Zona chewed him up on both ends of the floor.
Tatum has moved into my top 4. He has been excellent lately. If he keeps this up in the NCAAs, he might move into the top 3. In other games, Isaac continues to play like shit on offense. I just can't get there with him. To me, it's Fultz, Jackson, Ball, and Tatum. Tatum's emergence is making me less anxious about the ping pong balls. If the Celtics keep the pick, they're getting a good player no matter what happens.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Big game from Tatum against UNC
Huge game from Markanen against UCLA
Another takeaway from that game... Lonzo Ball was straight garbage, Zona chewed him up on both ends of the floor.
Not sure who was worse, Ball or Walton, who couldn't stop calling Ball the future of basketball.
 

chilidawg

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Big game from Tatum against UNC
Huge game from Markanen against UCLA
Another takeaway from that game... Lonzo Ball was straight garbage, Zona chewed him up on both ends of the floor.
Worst game I've seen from Ball, no energy, poor body language on both ends of the court. Made me think he was sick or something, just didn't look like himself.

Be interesting to see if Giles has a late season spurt in him. Looked good in flashes against Carolina.
 

tims4wins

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Giles finally showed something but I think he may come back. I don't see him as a top 10 pick. If he returns to health he could be a top 3 pick
 

southshoresoxfan

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Worst game I've seen from Ball, no energy, poor body language on both ends of the court. Made me think he was sick or something, just didn't look like himself.

Be interesting to see if Giles has a late season spurt in him. Looked good in flashes against Carolina.
Hurt his thumb early in the game
 

nighthob

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Giles finally showed something but I think he may come back. I don't see him as a top 10 pick. If he returns to health he could be a top 3 pick
With those knees the odds are that his career is over by the time he's 30. He needs to get out of the NCAA ASAP.
 

Ale Xander

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Big game from Tatum against UNC
Huge game from Markanen against UCLA
Another takeaway from that game... Lonzo Ball was straight garbage, Zona chewed him up on both ends of the floor.
Markkanen would look good in a Brad Stevens offense. Ignoring tonight, great FT shooter for a 7 footer
 

DJnVa

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Looks like Nets are gonna grab a win tonight--gonna be 8 games back of Lakers.
 

finnVT

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With Dennis Smith not finishing particularly strong, that probably makes Tatum the odds on favorite for the 4th pick at this point, right?
 

LondonSox

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I think it's a lot less certain than we think. Several rumours have Tatum or Jackson at 1 though dubious about that myself.
I think Fultz is one.
Then the tiers plus need will matter. Jackson, ball behind the order Shrug.
Then Smith Tatum.
But Fultz and Smith won't play again so some immediacy bias will likely get them talked down at least
 

finnVT

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So for tourney watching, guys that could reasonably be options for the C's, at least given the worst case scenario (let's say 4th pick)... Fultz & Smith are done, Ball (UCLA) & Jackson (Kansas) are obvious. Tatum (Duke) and maybe Isaac (FSU)? That's probably it, right?
 

mauf

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With Dennis Smith not finishing particularly strong, that probably makes Tatum the odds on favorite for the 4th pick at this point, right?
I don't see Tatum going before Smith or Isaac, but it's hard to say until we have the measurables -- if Isaac is only 6-9 and Tatum has an impressive vertical, then sure, he could go #4. I wouldn't say he's the favorite, though; the conventional wisdom is that he's far less athletic than Smith, and the appeal of a 6-10 athlete who can shoot like Isaac is self-evident.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I'd be surprised if Smith was on Danny's board, even if he had finished stronger. No defense without much potential there (short arms, low effort).
 

mauf

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So for tourney watching, guys that could reasonably be options for the C's, at least given the worst case scenario (let's say 4th pick)... Fultz & Smith are done, Ball (UCLA) & Jackson (Kansas) are obvious. Tatum (Duke) and maybe Isaac (FSU)? That's probably it, right?
I've seen Malik Monk (Kentucky) as high as #4 in some mocks, but I don't buy it -- I think he's behind the six guys you listed.
 

BigSoxFan

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I don't see Tatum going before Smith or Isaac, but it's hard to say until we have the measurables -- if Isaac is only 6-9 and Tatum has an impressive vertical, then sure, he could go #4. I wouldn't say he's the favorite, though; the conventional wisdom is that he's far less athletic than Smith, and the appeal of a 6-10 athlete who can shoot like Isaac is self-evident.
Tatum looks plenty athletic to me. He has been the best player on the floor for most of the last month. Isaac disappears so much that I don't fully trust him. His last few games are a perfect example of this. I can see why people may be enamored with him but I see much higher bust potential here. I can see the intrigue with Smith but hard to tell what his ceiling is - defense scares me. Tatum is also the youngest of the 3 guys as he just turned 19.

I really think Tatum is going to solidify his position as a top 4 guy this month. He looks like a kid who's finally figuring it all out. 3pt shot could use further refinement but at 34% it's not overly concerning.
 

Phragle

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Tatum was unbelievable the last 4 days. By far the best player in the entire tournament
I'm no expert, but of the players I've seen, Tatum is only behind Fultz for me.

I don't see Tatum going before Smith or Isaac, but it's hard to say until we have the measurables -- if Isaac is only 6-9 and Tatum has an impressive vertical, then sure, he could go #4. I wouldn't say he's the favorite, though; the conventional wisdom is that he's far less athletic than Smith, and the appeal of a 6-10 athlete who can shoot like Isaac is self-evident.
What's an impressive vertical for Tatum?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Good question -- I don't have a sense of the raw numbers.

In this context, I think the answer is "at least as good as Isaac, and in the same zip code as Smith."
I would have wanted to compare with Jabari Parker, another Blue Devil who was considered to have a refined offensive game combined with a lack of athleticism*, but Parker skipped the combine.

*To be fair to Parker, he's got about 40 pounds on Tatum.
 

Kliq

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Parker's athleticism was really underrated coming out of Duke. Even after his first knee surgery he was one of the most consistent in-game dunkers in the NBA. He was a regular fixture on NBA Daily Top Tens all last season.
 

nighthob

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The vertical numbers aren't very useful, in game athleticism means a whole lot more.
 

nighthob

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So we shouldn't pay attention to jumping measurements? We shouldn't use all the information we have available?
No, the measurable are important, but only to a degree. Jodi Meeks tested out like a Baby Jordan by the numbers, but you don't really see it in game play, because it's not his game.

Tatum, on the other hand, has a sneaky quick first step and the strength to leverage it and takes guys overplaying the jumper off the dribble and finishes through contact. So no matter where his vertical falls on the scale, I know that he can play like that. Pierce was the same way, I doubt his vertical numbers were elite, but that never stopped him from dunking in traffic.
 

Cellar-Door

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On the jumping issue. Vertical can be important, bad vertical tells you something about a guy (though depending on his game he can still be excellent, see Zach Randolph), but good vertical often can be misleading because the quickness off the floor and second jump are often more important in the actual game than how high a guy can jump from a prep position.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The vertical numbers aren't very useful, in game athleticism means a whole lot more.
Precisely. Didn't Pat Connaughton have a ridiculous vertical and other athletic numbers? I haven't seen those type of athletic numbers from a spot-up shooter since Brent Barry.
 

Drocca

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@HomeRunBaker what do you think of John Collins of Wake Forest? He scored at will during the ACC season and seems to have great footwork and instincts. Listed at 6'10 (I'm dubious, maybe) and 225. Projected mid-teens right now. I think he could be a great pick in that area. He didn't attempt a 3pt which he will probably have to add to his game. He's at 74.5% for FT but I don't know what that really measures in terms of 3pt potential, I just always see it as part of the projection equation when folks talk about non-3pt shooters developing a shot.

I don't know exactly who to compare him to.
 

thehitcat

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Not HRB here and it might have been a single game blip but he didn't stand out at all in the play in loss game. He was completely invisible in the first half before showing a bit in the second but on the whole he got more or less pushed around by a bigger less athletic center from KState. Again I didn't watch him much in the regular season but I didn't like what I saw in an elimination game and I say all this in the full knowledge that the box score shows him as the leading scorer and rebounder for the game. I guess I just like my lottery, even late lottery picks to stand out a bit more.
 

HomeRunBaker

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@HomeRunBaker what do you think of John Collins of Wake Forest? He scored at will during the ACC season and seems to have great footwork and instincts. Listed at 6'10 (I'm dubious, maybe) and 225. Projected mid-teens right now. I think he could be a great pick in that area. He didn't attempt a 3pt which he will probably have to add to his game. He's at 74.5% for FT but I don't know what that really measures in terms of 3pt potential, I just always see it as part of the projection equation when folks talk about non-3pt shooters developing a shot.

I don't know exactly who to compare him to.
I have a strange comp but the guy he reminds me of in many ways is Ben Bentil who left Providence early last year or Marreese Speights. Collins is very very raw yet like Bentil made a HUGE leap in his (presumably) final season due to being extremely active on the offensive end. What he lacks in fluidity he makes up for him being active and aware......Collins knows how to put the ball in the basket. The downside for him which was same for Bentil is that he is truly a horrific defensive player which can be hidden in college but exploited at the next level and doesn't have a good feel for how an offense is run. Once he gets the ball he can put it in the basket but don't ask him to initiate a play from the high post. Him jumper looks really good and his FT% improvement is also a good sign so if he sticks in the league I'll expect him to add a 3-point shot to his arsenal.

I question whether he can stick but he is only 19 and active with a nice face up jumper......so you have a solid base to build upon. How far he goes will depend on whether he can pick up the defensive side of the ball enough to earn rotation minutes like Speights or remain clueless as Bentil has up to this point. He's a flier of the Fab Melo variety......I'd maybe take a shot late 1st round with low expectations long term with zero expectations in his first two years. He isn't close to a lottery guy in my opinion.

Edit: Wow! If this is correct major red flag on this player. 6'8" wingspan? That is 6-7" shorter than others entering draft at his position and a shorter wingspan than Markelle Fultz. I wasn't high on Collins prior to noticing this but his measurements at Combine will be telling.
 
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sox311

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Lorenzo Romar finally fired, not sure how he couldn't ever perform with how well he recruited.

That means that Michael Porter is also probably in play. The potential first overall draft pick in 2018 draft. His dad was on Romar's staff in Seattle. He was hired by Missouri, where his two daughters play....
 

HomeRunBaker

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Lorenzo Romar finally fired, not sure how he couldn't ever perform with how well he recruited.

That means that Michael Porter is also probably in play. The potential first overall draft pick in 2018 draft. His dad was on Romar's staff in Seattle. He was hired by Missouri, where his two daughters play....
Yeah, when Cuonzo Martin left Cal to take the Mizzou job he immediately offered Porter Sr. an Assistant job but I hadn't heard that he accepted it yet. If he did as you say than obviously this places Porter Jr at Mizzou.
 

MarkBT

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Jonathan Isaac is so invisible in these games.
Really? I was just coming in here to post the opposite. He does jump off the screen (though he handled the ball in transition a couple times and had that really nice block at the rim), but look at his stat line: 17 pts / 10 rbs / 5 asts / 3 blk / 2 stl

That was accomplished at 5-8 from 2FG, 1-3 from 3FG and 6-9 at the line. My top 3 of Fultz, Ball, Jackson is unlikely to change, but that mix at #4 is really interesting with Isaac, Tatum and Markkanen
 

BigSoxFan

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Really? I was just coming in here to post the opposite. He does jump off the screen (though he handled the ball in transition a couple times and had that really nice block at the rim), but look at his stat line: 17 pts / 10 rbs / 5 asts / 3 blk / 2 stl

That was accomplished at 5-8 from 2FG, 1-3 from 3FG and 6-9 at the line. My top 3 of Fultz, Ball, Jackson is unlikely to change, but that mix at #4 is really interesting with Isaac, Tatum and Markkanen
He did nothing in the first half. Second half was much better, which is kind of my point. Skills are there to be much more dominant on a consistent basis. Some games he hardly shoots the ball.
 

MarkBT

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He did nothing in the first half. Second half was much better, which is kind of my point. Skills are there to be much more dominant on a consistent basis. Some games he hardly shoots the ball.
Ahh - just noticed the timestamp on your post. Ya he did most of his work in the 2nd half (which I saw more of), so I better understand your point now. Also my post should say "doesn't jump off the screen" (not does)

To me, he's got all the offensive skills/tools that Stevens looks for in his "swings," and I'd imagine that Stevens would know how to maximize that skill set. I go back and forth between he and Tatum, though am starting to lean toward Tatum at #4, as he's showing more consistency and looks much more ready to contribute to an NBA than does Isaac.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He did nothing in the first half. Second half was much better, which is kind of my point. Skills are there to be much more dominant on a consistent basis. Some games he hardly shoots the ball.
This isn't that uncommon for a non-first option who doesn't have the ball in his hand in the college game. There was about a 10 minute stretch where every Seminole possession resulted in either a turnover (bad) or Bacon shooting the ball (good). These tournament games tend to be dominated by guards, in some part because in big games these are your best shot creators and in another part they have the ball and know the lights are on them so they tend to be more aggressive. It's easy for a guy like Isaac to go stretches where he gets lost in the shuffle.

He's a nice player with a great NBA body for him to continue to grow into. I didn't view last night as a negative for Isaac at all despite his teammates not getting him involved much in the first half.
 

rhopkins2323

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He did nothing in the first half. Second half was much better, which is kind of my point. Skills are there to be much more dominant on a consistent basis. Some games he hardly shoots the ball.
I'm starting to agree with you on Issac. To start the year there was a lot to like. His measurables and production were as good as anyone in the country. But once he got into ACC play where the scouting reports are better and the D tightens up, he disappears. I'd have to watch more, but it seems like he scores when he has a lot of space to operate. When that space is taken away he doesn't attack. I'm not sure if it's compete level, if he's deferring to Bacon (who can be awesome at times) or XRM, or if teams are able to take him out by just being physical with him. But either way, it's not a great trait for drafting in the top 5. It just wreaks of Jeff Green. At this point I would rather take Tatum. Isaac is a too much of a risk with a low floor.