2017 NBA offseason thread

BigSoxFan

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Yes a great defensive big man with exceptional work ethic and shot blocking would be useless on any other team.

McCaw will leave and get a nice deal somewhere imo

Both were well flagged as sleepers. As we're Boldin, Evans, brown it's not their fault teams would rather have worse players than actual role players who can stay on the court
Great. So, we clearly have different opinions of what constitutes a "fringe NBA player". In my mind, basically every 2nd round pick is until proven otherwise.

Are you disagreeing with the larger point that I made?
 

Devizier

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I think it's worth mentioning that the chances of a second round pick even playing a single minute in the NBA is roughly 50%.
 

LondonSox

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I think not all second round picks are equal but moving on.

I think the best second round picks are role players, who can excel in specific areas. So I would agree for most they could not maintain efficiency on much longer minutes.

I think this is your point right?

My drafting philosophy has shifted a lot. I basically think that flawed players with no NBA high end skills, but who performed well in college are dumb picks. They aren't used to playing a small specific role and they suck at their big role.
These guys over and over again go in the second half of the first, and guys who have an actual skill and are potentially very useful depth and role players seem to go on the second. Making them even more valuable due to contracts

I would rather have a team of useful role players while I hunted for my primary creator than a bunch of players who think if they hit enough shots they'll be rewarded.

With the cap you can get one or two stars, and then get lucky or use the first stars to attract a third. Then you need a bunch of role players. But if you can't get the star with your pick don't take a dumb lottery ticket, take something useful.

But you are not wrong as to your point that role players shouldn't get out of their lane
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I think the best second round picks are role players, who can excel in specific areas. So I would agree for most they could not maintain efficiency on much longer minutes.

I think this is your point right?

My drafting philosophy has shifted a lot. I basically think that flawed players with no NBA high end skills, but who performed well in college are dumb picks. They aren't used to playing a small specific role and they suck at their big role.
I think DA has the same philosophy - identify guys with at least one NBA level and hope that the guy can stick with that. Without looking it up, DA seems to be able figure out who is a NBA caliber player.

But you're right. Given the way the NBA has evolved, I'm surprised teams don't load up on guys who can defend and shot 3s. Seems to me that they are pretty easy to identify (Oneleye, Bolden, etc.) but given how valuable they are (see Otto Porter) if you can keep churning these guys out, you have some valuable trade assets.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I think it's worth mentioning that the chances of a second round pick even playing a single minute in the NBA is roughly 50%.
That used to be true however it is no longer the case. Nearly all 2nd rounders now receive some type of guarantee and with 15 man rosters most have a spot locked up......and now with the two-ways the number will only grow higher.

Of last summers 30 2nd round picks, 19 of them played NBA minutes, 7 were stashed and only 4 languished without seeing any NBA time......and one of those 4 was Nader who now has a multi-year guarantee.
 

BigSoxFan

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That used to be true however it is no longer the case. Nearly all 2nd rounders now receive some type of guarantee and with 15 man rosters most have a spot locked up......and now with the two-ways the number will only grow higher.

Of last summers 30 2nd round picks, 19 of them played NBA minutes, 7 were stashed and only 4 languished without seeing any NBA time......and one of those 4 was Nader who now has a multi-year guarantee.
Yes, but outside of a few examples, most of these guys are pretty fungible, which was my larger point. Last year, only 4 guys exceeded 1,000 minutes:

Brogdon
Ulis (due to Bledsoe injury)
McCaw
Whitehead (playing on a terrible team)

If you go down to 500 minutes, the number becomes 6:

Zubac
Zipser

Due to the way that rosters have evolved, I think you're right that more second round picks will be getting inked but I don't expect much more production from them going forward. I certainly don't expect Nader or Ojeleye to get much run at all this year.

Getting back to GS, Bell may have a useful skill set but he's behind better veterans and that doesn't include guys like Damian Jones, Looney, etc. To London's point, at least as I interpret it, lack of run on a great team GS doesn't necessarily mean he's a fringe player by my definition. We will have to wait and see what this year's 2nd round yields.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yes, but outside of a few examples, most of these guys are pretty fungible, which was my larger point. Last year, only 4 guys exceeded 1,000 minutes:

Brogdon
Ulis (due to Bledsoe injury)
McCaw
Whitehead (playing on a terrible team)

If you go down to 500 minutes, the number becomes 6:

Zubac
Zipser

Due to the way that rosters have evolved, I think you're right that more second round picks will be getting inked but I don't expect much more production from them going forward. I certainly don't expect Nader or Ojeleye to get much run at all this year.

Getting back to GS, Bell may have a useful skill set but he's behind better veterans and that doesn't include guys like Damian Jones, Looney, etc. To London's point, at least as I interpret it, lack of run on a great team GS doesn't necessarily mean he's a fringe player by my definition. We will have to wait and see what this year's 2nd round yields.
I agree that most of them are fungible as are older veterans bouncing around the back-end of rosters who cost much more to have around. For years the older non-productive retreads continued being paid while a 2nd round rookie/UFA/D-League call-up/etc would be a marginal downgrade that doesn't affect Wins and Losses but cuts $4-5m off the payroll.......when you factor in the tax this number can become significant.

Take a guy like Andre Miller who was a binky of mine forever who spent the last half dozen years of his career bouncing around the WC as a deep backup non-difference maker making nearly $25m during those 5 years. McCaw fulfilled pretty much this same role in Oakland last year on a $543k minimum deal. As smarter people hold key front office positions and the "old school" types get forced out I feel we will see more and more of teams managing their cap in that manner. We are watching the Celtics do it this year with their backup bigs while moving Bradley to give Rozier and Brown a larger role on their cheaper rookie deals.
 

BigSoxFan

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Agreed. I think roster construction will certainly play a role. Top heavy teams like the Celtics will basically have to supplement the roster with cheap 2nd rounders so as to avoid those monster tax bills. It would be great if all of this culminated in a true minor league system for hoops. It's not quite there yet but I do support the two-way contract idea.
 

Devizier

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We're already seeing the premier league/MLS type relationship with the NBA and the CBA; lots of veterans making more dough in China than they could ever imagine stateside. We'll probably see more of that in the future.
 

ifmanis5

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Good for Phoenix. Irving-Booker-Jackson is a great young core, Chriss appears to have serious bust potential, and Cleveland has no leverage.

As if the Western Conference needs another good team, though...
 

LondonSox

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I think Jackson is a long shot whose value goes a lot lower before potentially higher.
He's not ready. The more I watch the less interested I am. If they want him either their scouting is bad (cough Bennett) or they really are thinking post LeBron.

That said bledsoe obviously makes more sense given the positions.
 

moly99

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Danilo Gallinari has broken his thumb punching an opponent in Eurobasket, but he should have enough time to recover for Clippers training camp.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20203666/danilo-gallinari-los-angeles-clippers-injures-thumb-punching-opponent-european-exhibition-game

I don't know why so many people think punching someone in the skull (a large bone) with the hand (full of fragile tiny bones) is a great idea. If you are going to punch someone aim for the floating ribs. Or better yet walk away.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Wonder if he'll get suspended over here. Wasn't there an NBA player who threw a chair at someone in Europe not to long ago?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Wonder if he'll get suspended over here. Wasn't there an NBA player who threw a chair at someone in Europe not to long ago?
Von Wafer punched or kicked a guy then grabbed a chair from the bench and threw it into the crowd a couple years ago. He was suspended for the remainder of the season there iirc but not banned/suspended from the NBA unless I missed that. I don't think any action that occurs in a non-NBA sanctioned game is required to draw an automatic suspension in the NBA though.

Wafer also got into a fight with Delonte West when they were both with the Celtics so that guy clearly has some anger/aggression issues.
 

mauf

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If they want him either their scouting is bad (cough Bennett) or they really are thinking post LeBron.
Or they have a third team who is enamored of Jackson and will give them a legit 2nd/3rd option for him. (Though I confess there's not an obvious candidate for that 3rd team -- maybe the Blazers if they've secretly decided that Lillard and McCollum don't fit together.)
 

Sam Ray Not

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Today's game of Player A / Player B...

2016-17 stats, per 36 mins.

Player A: 16.7 pts on .575 ts / 3.8 reb / 2.8 ast / 1.2 stl / 1.7 tov
Player B: 19.1 pts on .568 ts / 3.7 reb / 3.0 ast / 0.9 stl / 1.8 tov

Player A (playoffs): 17.9 pts on .630 ts / 4.3 reb / 1.8 ast / 1.0 stl / 1.8 tov (16 games, 219 minutes)
Player B (playoffs): 13.9 pts on .426 ts / 2.9 reb / 1.3 ast / 0.5 stl / 1.8 tov (6 games, 200 minutes)

Player A: 26 years old
Player B: 25 years old

Player A is Ian Clark, who signed yesterday with the Pelicans for one year at the vet min, $1.6M.

Player B is Tim Hardaway Jr., who signed with the LOLKnicks for … 4/$71M.

Worth noting that THJ played more minutes per game, but I'm pretty sure the "Millsap doctrine" completely applies to Ian Clark: he has the youth, athleticism, body type, etc. to easily handle 25-30 mpg if needed. In the one game last season where Kerr gave his middle finger to the NBA-schedulers by benching everyone v. San Antonio, Clark played 34 minutes and dropped 36 points (on 15-21 fg).

I mean, I haven't watched that much Hardaway Jr. (you guys as Eastern Conference fans have probably watched him a lot more) but how different is he from Ian Clark? I feel like the most notable differences that could have led to such a gross disparity in their markets are:

(1) Minutes per game;
(2) Hardaway has a couple inches taller head-height (but only 0.5" better wingspan); and
(3) Knicks are gonna Knick.
 

jon abbey

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That Hardaway contract was terrible, but you can't cite GS individual stats in a vacuum, it's a lot easier to put up numbers when no one is guarding you because you're playing alongside four of the twenty best players in the league.
 

Sam Ray Not

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That Hardaway contract was terrible, but you can't cite GS individual stats in a vacuum, it's a lot easier to put up numbers when no one is guarding you because you're playing alongside four of the twenty best players in the league.
Could be. But I've seen enough of Ian in summer league, garbage time, garbage games (v. the Spurs, e.g.) to think that he's just a really solid NBA player, independent of context. Shooting 37.4% from 3 alone has a lot of value in today's NBA. He's not $18M worthy, of course, but Hardway Jr. isn't that either.

In a market closer to last year's, a feel like a player with Clark's combo of youth, high character, playoff experience, scoring and shooting could/should command roughly the full MLE (~$8M). This market this offseason has just been a lot more fallow than people expected — starting with the lower-than-expected cap number, but even given that I've been surprised to see vet mins for guys like Clark, Speights, Derrick Rose, et al. (Though I think Rose is a potential team cancer who I personally wouldn't want even at the vet min).
 

bowiac

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I'm not gonna wade neck deep into this one since I barely know who Ian Clark is, but I'll note that Hardaway Jr. had a -0.3 BPM to Clark's -2. In other words, even without adjusting for context very much (since BPM is a box-score stat without access to plus/minus data), that's the difference between being close to league average, and being replacement level.

I'm not defending the Hardaway Jr. contract, but there's a pretty healthy difference there.
 

cheech13

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Similarly, 538's CARMELO projection system has Ian Clark as being worth negative value over the next five years but Tim Hardaway at close to $40 million. Doesn't make that Knicks contract any better and it doesn't preclude Clark from beating projections and being a more productive player, but they aren't that similar right now. Clark was extremely protected as a limited minutes player on all-time great team. I do like it as an upside play for New Orleans, however, as they desperately need an infusion of talent.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Toward the end of this season Hardaway got his run versus actual NBA startes. As was noted upthread, Clark was a member of the Warriors bench mob and wasn't typically on the floor going against other NBA starters. I like aspects of Clark's game but he is small and a weak defender.

That doesn't mean that Hardaway is worth $16+mm more than Clark this year but the salary difference is more attributable to the Knicks having no shot of signing anyone else of consequence than a relative value reading between the two players.
 

JakeRae

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Bledsoe, Bender, MIA 2018 for Kyrie https://sports.yahoo.com/report-suns-willing-trade-eric-162130902.html

Seems like a pretty fair deal
I don't see it. Bender is more a negative than a positive after his first season. I say this as someone who liked him going into the draft, but he was just so bad last year it's hard to see him ever being a quality player. The Miami pick is a nice asset, but Miami is likely a playoff team next year, so while there is some upside, it probably is a mid-teens pick and doesn't have extraordinary value.
 

the moops

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I don't see it. Bender is more a negative than a positive after his first season. I say this as someone who liked him going into the draft, but he was just so bad last year it's hard to see him ever being a quality player.
The kid is still just 19 years old. There has gotta be hope left
 

moly99

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I don't even like Kyrie and I wouldn't take that deal if I were Cleveland. Bender gives them nothing next year and will probably be a bust. Miami's pick will not be good enough to help them rebuild.

The worst case scenario for the Cavs is trading Kyrie and ending up with a crippled team that isn't good enough to challenge for a title yet also doesn't have enough resources to complete a quick rebuild. If I were GM of the Cavs I would want 23-27 year old starters in exchange for Kyrie, or I would tear the whole thing down and trade LeBron and Love as well.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Wow, Bender is a bust already. Good thing we didn't pock him or we could start a thread comparing him to Trey Ball.

Funny, he's legit 7'0" and has a very good stroke and can defend at least three positions if not four. (Sound like anyone that some people were saying the Cs should draft at #3?) He was the youngest kid in his draft; is still only 19; has some ability to handle the ball and pass; and is still only 19.

Two years ago, I think most people would have thought Bender had a higher upside than Jackson and the same may be true two years from now. It's just at this point in time, after seeing an 18 to 19 year-old Bender compete against grown men and a 19-20 year old Jackson compete against kids, we hold Jackson in such a high regard.

If I'm CLE, the difference between Bender and Jackson isn't going to hold up making that deal. And if I'm pretty sure LBJ is leaving, I think I want Bender's upside over Jackson's floor.
 

LondonSox

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I think that is a better deal than anything they will see. And a bad one for PHX
Bledsoe is a straight fit for Kyrie and if he can stay healthy maybe not a huge downgrade (if you include him getting on with LeBron better etc too especially)
Bender is a wildcard I'm sure not put on him and his upside is huge. He was always going to be raw. If I were Cleveland I'd move him on, because he needs time and to play and they can't play him much.
And a pick too, depending on protections, Kyrie or no Kyrie they're going to be bad. So could be a good pick.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't even like Kyrie and I wouldn't take that deal if I were Cleveland. Bender gives them nothing next year and will probably be a bust. Miami's pick will not be good enough to help them rebuild.

The worst case scenario for the Cavs is trading Kyrie and ending up with a crippled team that isn't good enough to challenge for a title yet also doesn't have enough resources to complete a quick rebuild. If I were GM of the Cavs I would want 23-27 year old starters in exchange for Kyrie, or I would tear the whole thing down and trade LeBron and Love as well.
LeBron has a no-trade and already said he wouldn't waive it. That proposed Kyrie trade is essentially a straight-up swap in regards to this season and as much of a Bledsoe guy as I've been since his UK season he isn't in the same league as Kyrie in filling that role of elite scorer next to LeBron. Kyrie could put up 35 ppg in that Suns system with the ball in his hands......I think too many people have discounted his offensive growth over the past two years while recalling his 21 and 22-year old seasons as he's now just reaching his prime years
 

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Kyrie to Suns is something I really want. Even if you count on court results as equivalent (though Kyrie has more growth and upside) bledsoe is too much of a risk to miss significant time especially if it's another tank season.

Now if we could figure out how to make the Hawks and Bulls better.
 

NoXInNixon

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The point is that it is assumed he is leaving no matter what.

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I mean this year. Let's say Gilbert is forced to trade Kyrie for 50 cents on the dollar. The best offer he can get would leave him with a team still not close to beating Golden State, so he goes the other way and trades both Kyrie and Love for young players and future draft picks. Then he turns to Lebron and says he wants to go all the way with the tear down and trade Lebron to the Lakers for whatever he can get. Why would Lebron say no to going to LA a year early as opposed to wasting a year on a Cleveland team where he'll be the only legit NBA player?
 

sezwho

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I mean this year. Let's say Gilbert is forced to trade Kyrie for 50 cents on the dollar. The best offer he can get would leave him with a team still not close to beating Golden State, so he goes the other way and trades both Kyrie and Love for young players and future draft picks. Then he turns to Lebron and says he wants to go all the way with the tear down and trade Lebron to the Lakers for whatever he can get. Why would Lebron say no to going to LA a year early as opposed to wasting a year on a Cleveland team where he'll be the only legit NBA player?

If we accept Lebron plans to leave after next year, and this somehow has triggered Kyrie's parachute now, then Cleveland's best option is to raze the team and start again. They now have the opportunity to trade Kyrie, Lebron (and Love) and rebuild:

1) Lebron mournfully accepts Cleveland's request to waive his no trade, whereupon he takes the high road to Klutch Sports West.
2) Kyrie presumably gets 'his' team
3) Cleveland cashes in on all the picks/assets trading Kyrie and Lebron can generate (plus whatever you can get for Love) and start again.

Its possible Lebron and Kyrie could patch things up, but I believe the moves are really just driven by the knowledge they can't beat GSW. Their egos simply won't accept it so they are headed for the exit regardless. Dan Gilbert could also just hold onto Lebron to the last minute, get nothing, then make a series of bizarre and ridiculous statements.
 

Infield Infidel

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Is the assumption that Lebron would pick acceptable destinations, Cleveland would work on a deal those teams, and then Lebron would waive the NTC, and sign a contract extention with the new team? Getting Lebron would be great but if it's only for a year why do that?
 

NoXInNixon

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The assumption is that Lebron knows where he wants to go next year, and would find a way to broker a deal so that he can go there a year early rather than stay an extra year on a rebuilding Cavs. If Cleveland is punting on 2017-2018 anyway, anything they can get back in trade is a positive.
 

mcpickl

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I mean this year. Let's say Gilbert is forced to trade Kyrie for 50 cents on the dollar. The best offer he can get would leave him with a team still not close to beating Golden State, so he goes the other way and trades both Kyrie and Love for young players and future draft picks. Then he turns to Lebron and says he wants to go all the way with the tear down and trade Lebron to the Lakers for whatever he can get. Why would Lebron say no to going to LA a year early as opposed to wasting a year on a Cleveland team where he'll be the only legit NBA player?
Because he doesn't want to decimate the depth on his new team like Carmelo did forcing a trade to NY rather than waiting to sign as a free agent?
 

NoXInNixon

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Because he doesn't want to decimate the depth on his new team like Carmelo did forcing a trade to NY rather than waiting to sign as a free agent?
But why does that have to happen? Lebron could broker a deal where the Lakers give up something like Randle and a future first. That doesn't decimate any depth, and Cleveland does it because it's better than getting nothing when Lebron leaves as a free agent.

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mcpickl

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But why does that have to happen? Lebron could broker a deal where the Lakers give up something like Randle and a future first. That doesn't decimate any depth, and Cleveland does it because it's better than getting nothing when Lebron leaves as a free agent.

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I'd say Dan Gilbert doesn't do it for pennies on the dollar because it would be worth it to him to have one more year of Lebron, and the hope he changes his mind and stays, and be able to make Lebron look like the bad guy if he chooses to walk away again next summer rather than take the hit himself.

I would think, and hope, Cleveland wouldn't settle for getting a pittance back in a theoretical Lebron trade. They'd have to get some serious value back.
 

HomeRunBaker

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But why does that have to happen? Lebron could broker a deal where the Lakers give up something like Randle and a future first. That doesn't decimate any depth, and Cleveland does it because it's better than getting nothing when Lebron leaves as a free agent.

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This is precisely my point why it will never happen. Neither LeBron nor Gilbert are ever going to agree to "lose" such a monumental trade. LeBron will be the one structuring the trade as others mentioned and Gilbert's ego isn't ever going to allow him to take pennies on LeBron's dollar. This is even if LeBron openly lied about not leaving.
 

Devizier

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I honestly think a Lebron-Bledsoe core would actually be pretty strong. If the Cavaliers go that route, they'd be better off getting Chriss or even a role player like Warren than Bender, though.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I honestly think a Lebron-Bledsoe core would actually be pretty strong. If the Cavaliers go that route, they'd be better off getting Chriss or even a role player like Warren than Bender, though.
Of course that LeBron/Love/Bledsoe core would be very strong in the East especially during the regular season. The Cavs were 4-1 last year with LeBron playing and Kyrie out. It isn't like the Cavs are going to turn into the post-Shaq Lakers with Kobe carrying Chris Mihm and Chucky Atkins in the starting lineup all season.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I honestly think a Lebron-Bledsoe core would actually be pretty strong. If the Cavaliers go that route, they'd be better off getting Chriss or even a role player like Warren than Bender, though.
I doubt they'd throw in Chriss. He emerged in the 2nd half and is one of those rare stretch bigs that is also a rim protector. I'm sure they'd throw in Warren without hesitation though.

edit: Warren is younger than I thought. His 3 point shooting is all over the place though. From .400 last year to .265 this year with the same amount of attempts even though he was playing 10 more minutes a game.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I doubt they'd throw in Chriss. He emerged in the 2nd half and is one of those rare stretch bigs that is also a rim protector. I'm sure they'd throw in Warren without hesitation though.

edit: Warren is younger than I thought. His 3 point shooting is all over the place though. From .400 last year to .265 this year with the same amount of attempts even though he was playing 10 more minutes a game.
Warren's 40% from two years ago was only on 70 attempts. He was a horrific jump shooter at NC State, terrible catch-and-shoot mechanics, and also in two of his three NBA seasons. That one season is clearly a one-off from what his norm has been up until this point. He isn't a guy who is going to help you with spacing.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Warren's 40% from two years ago was only on 70 attempts. He was a horrific jump shooter at NC State, terrible catch-and-shoot mechanics, and also in two of his three NBA seasons. That one season is clearly a one-off from what his norm has been up until this point. He isn't a guy who is going to help you with spacing.

All his sample sizes are small from 3. .315 on 143 attempts in college and .312 on 189 in the NBA. He's young enough to improve, I guess. Still better than Marcus Smart... ugh.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Lol, today's silly-season rumor: the Warriors are hot for Paul George.

http://nba.nbcsports.com/2017/08/09/rumor-warriors-to-pursue-paul-george/

Not totally unfathomable to me, since George is a CA guy, Klay and PG13 are besties who have talked about teaming up, and KD has called George "his favorite player." Finances would be tricky, but if it happened, I imagine it would be next summer, and would involve the Ws clearing room by trading Iguodala and Livingston into another team's cap space (as they did with Bogut before signing KD).

Potential death lineup 3.0 for 2018-19: Curry, Thompson, George, Durant, Green

Do it, Bob Myers!