2017 NFL draft discussion/mock drafts

jsinger121

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Keep seeing Jabrill Peppers to the Pats in various mocks. What do people think of him? Clearly a great athlete but seems to be a bit of a project at safety. But the thought of Belichick getting a kid with that kind of raw talent intrigues me.
Love Peppers. Play maker on defense and special teams. Can impact the game in many ways. If the Pats get him I would be really happy.
 

E5 Yaz

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Keep seeing Jabrill Peppers to the Pats in various mocks. What do people think of him? Clearly a great athlete but seems to be a bit of a project at safety. But the thought of Belichick getting a kid with that kind of raw talent intrigues me.
Defensive players are more and more hybrids. Peppers' size and speed (he's basically 10 lbs lighter than Deion Jones), used creatively, could be an asset in the right defense. Plus the special teams possibilities.

I just don't see him falling to the bottom of the round
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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I think Peppers is a lot like Ramsey from last year but maybe more athletic. I would love to see what Bill could do with him. His health scares me a little though.
 

GammonsSpecialPerson

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Jimmy G + Nate Solder + 2018 4th round pick to CLE

#33 (2017), #52 (2017), LT Joe Thomas + conditional 3rd round pick in 2018 (rising to 2nd round if JG starts 10-12 games, 1st round if the Browns make the playoffs) to NE

Solder has one year remaining on his current contract, with a cap hit of $11M. Trading him creates a ~$4M dead money hit on the 2017 cap. Thomas is owed $8.8M in salary for two more seasons (2017 & 2018) - his remaining bonuses would seem to create no dead money cap hit, but the Browns might need to pay out his remaining $3M in bonuses. This would result in the Patriots adding ~$2M to their 2017 cap but also (potentially) push off any need to address LT this season in the draft or spend real money on a Solder extension/bonus.

JG nets two current year 2nd round picks, as well as a (likely) third 2nd rounder next season. Cleveland adds two impact players in the first round, gets their QB1 of now and future, and only slightly downgrades their LT spot. They can more than afford to extend the younger Solder after 2017 if he's amenable.

Thomas remains one of the best LT in the NFL; Solder is good - Thomas is better. And while Thomas is older, he also has yet to show any signs of decline AND he pushes off the need to draft a potential replacement for Solder OR spend a lot of real money (and cap money) on a Solder extension in 2017. They certainly could address the position in the 2017 draft if they wanted, but with the extra year, they would not need to draft a tackle this year.

In this scenario, they almost certainly trade down and/or out of 2017's first round - banking another future 1st or 2nd in return in 2018 or 2019. Further, they own the catbird's seat on the 2nd round, possibly getting even more value from some team looking to move up for DeShaun Watson or another player at the top of the round. In any trade down (either 32 or 33), they would also add a few later round picks (like an extra 4th in 2018) - which also bolsters the cupboard and mitigates the pick sent to CLE as part of this trade.

On draft day, the Pats would have Joe Thomas (All-Pro quality LT), plus #32, #33, #52, #64, #96 in the first three rounds, plus an extra high round pick in 2018.
 

bowiac

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I love Peppers, and think he'll succeed in the league, but he's more of a "make a play" rather than a "do you job" guy. He has a lot of freedom to freelance at Michigan, which resulted in a few blown overages from time to time. He doesn't strike me as a Belichick guy.
 

Marbleheader

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I know the Pats can make cold decisions, but I don't see them trading Solder to Cleveland and taking him away from his son's cancer doctors and treatment.
 

BigSoxFan

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I know the Pats can make cold decisions, but I don't see them trading Solder to Cleveland and taking him away from his son's cancer doctors and treatment.
Cleveland Clinic is one of the best cancer hospitals in the world. He'd be in good hands there.
 

MarkBT

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I love Peppers, and think he'll succeed in the league, but he's more of a "make a play" rather than a "do you job" guy. He has a lot of freedom to freelance at Michigan, which resulted in a few blown overages from time to time. He doesn't strike me as a Belichick guy.
Granted, the logo to my left lets you know where my allegiance lies... but having watched a lot of TTUN this year, I think this is a fair assessment. Peppers is an otherworldly athlete, but the production is a bit underwhelming on defense. Belichick / Patricia may like the projection of what Peppers could become, but I can't see them investing a 1st round pick on him
 

MarkBT

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He also has the Patriots getting what looks to be a freefalling OJ Howard at #32. That's a bit far for Howard to be falling IMO.
Agreed... but wouldn't that be a feather in Belichick's cap? Howard would be a great fit. He'd have to get a really high grade, I'd suspect. I remember reading an article that discussed the Pats' philosophy in the first round that suggested they only target "premier" positions: CB, OT, DL/Edge Rush
 

ZMart100

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I remember reading an article that discussed the Pats' philosophy in the first round that suggested they only target "premier" positions: CB, OT, DL/Edge Rush
That sounds wrong to me. Mayo, Graham, Maroney, Meriweather, Watson and Graham would all have to be exceptions.
 

Super Nomario

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Agreed... but wouldn't that be a feather in Belichick's cap? Howard would be a great fit. He'd have to get a really high grade, I'd suspect. I remember reading an article that discussed the Pats' philosophy in the first round that suggested they only target "premier" positions: CB, OT, DL/Edge Rush
Yeah, I suspect you have this precisely backwards. Ras-I Dowling is the only pure CB they used a top 50 pick on, with McCourty and Eugene Wilson moving to S. Solder's the only pure OT they've taken in the first. They have taken a ton of DTs (close to literally). No team has used fewer top 50 picks on pure edge guys (Chandler Jones is the only one).
 

MarkBT

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That sounds wrong to me. Mayo, Graham, Maroney, Meriweather, Watson and Graham would all have to be exceptions.
Yeah, I suspect you have this precisely backwards. Ras-I Dowling is the only pure CB they used a top 50 pick on, with McCourty and Eugene Wilson moving to S. Solder's the only pure OT they've taken in the first. They have taken a ton of DTs (close to literally). No team has used fewer top 50 picks on pure edge guys (Chandler Jones is the only one).
I'm trying to find the article, but am not having much luck (maybe I did imagine it).. but if it DID exist I remember the discussion centering around a shift in philosophy wherein 1st round picks "should" be players at premium positions, following the team's philosophy on allocating cap resources. If you look at the 1st rounders since 2009, it's all CB/OT/DL/Edge (small sample, admittedly):

2009 No pick
2010 Devin McCourty
2011 Nate Solder
2012 Chandler Jones; Dont'a Hightower
2013 No pick
2014 Dominique Easley
2015 Malcom Brown
2016 No pick
 

dbn

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I'm in the "no" camp on Peppers. I don't think he has much of a NFL position in that he's neither a CB nor big enough to play LB. I guess he could be used in a Chung-like big safety way, but the Patriots still have Chung. If he plummeted I'd be happy with a late rounder being used to take him, have him return punts, back-up Chung and maybe see if he finds a place on the team, but I suspect some other team will fall in love with his athleticism and draft him early in the second round, mis-use him, and his career never takes off.
 

Zososoxfan

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I'm in the "no" camp on Peppers. I don't think he has much of a NFL position in that he's neither a CB nor big enough to play LB. I guess he could be used in a Chung-like big safety way, but the Patriots still have Chung. If he plummeted I'd be happy with a late rounder being used to take him, have him return punts, back-up Chung and maybe see if he finds a place on the team, but I suspect some other team will fall in love with his athleticism and draft him early in the second round, mis-use him, and his career never takes off.
I think dbn is right and that Jabrill's best position for the time being is a hybrid space player to cover TEs, offer run support, and rush QBs. Yes, Chung currently does this well, but JP is faster, harder to block, younger, and cheaper. I think their coverage (weak) and tackling (excellent) is close to a wash. JP may be able to add the ability to cover slot WRs with more practice in coverage and coaching, which would really differentiate him from Chung. As others mentioned, JP would also be a real asset on ST, which we know BB values highly.

I don't pretend to know how the cap works, but Chung's cap hit is slated to be $5.4M this year - 7th highest on the Pats. If JP is there at 32 on draft day, I think BB will certainly consider him - he's incredibly talented. Also, if Jake Butt is still there at 64, I think BB will take a hard look.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/cap/
 

pappymojo

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I'm in the "no" camp on Peppers. I don't think he has much of a NFL position in that he's neither a CB nor big enough to play LB. I guess he could be used in a Chung-like big safety way, but the Patriots still have Chung. If he plummeted I'd be happy with a late rounder being used to take him, have him return punts, back-up Chung and maybe see if he finds a place on the team, but I suspect some other team will fall in love with his athleticism and draft him early in the second round, mis-use him, and then trade him in his third year to the Patriots.
FTFY
 

BigSoxFan

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Who would everyone's target be at #12 if Pats can get the pick for Jimmy? And assuming we kept the pick.
 

Shelterdog

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See ... I don't think we can make that assumption. But I'd go for an edge rusher
I'm sure they'd like to--but only if they like the player who's available at 12. Solomon Thomas might slide to 12 but he's not really an edge guy, maybe they'll like Barnett but he's not particularly athletic or big, Tim Williams is smallish and has off the field question makers--I just don't see a DL/OLB that makes sense at 12.

Some of the wideouts look decent in that range but that hasn't been BB's style. There are a couple of good looking defensive backs who make sense in that range, particularly since Ryan will almost certainly leave, Harmon very well might, and Butler may not be here for more than another year or two. Marlon Humphrey looks like the best fit but Peppers and Lattimore both would be decent fits.

I'm in love with Reuben Foster and McCaffrey, but Foster is probably gone by 12. Folks would consider McCaffrey an overdraft at 12 but he would just be perfect, particularly since James White is going to be a free agent in a year.

Like everybody else I assume that if we get 12 we trade it down because someone will be willing to overpay to draft a QB/WR/RB at 12.
 

E5 Yaz

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I'm sure they'd like to--but only if they like the player who's available at 12. Solomon Thomas might slide to 12 but he's not really an edge guy, maybe they'll like Barnett but he's not particularly athletic or big, Tim Williams is smallish and has off the field question makers--I just don't see a DL/OLB that makes sense at 12.
Agree completely, which is why the original question is difficult. If under the assumption that they keep the pick, I guess they go BPA; I just don't believe that if they get the 12, that they stay there. It's been a few years now since NE has had the capital to move up and down the board as much in the higher altitudes as they once did. Getting a Top 15 pick this year could set them for 2-3 drafts, if they were to make multiple trades
 

dcmissle

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Since we're marking time with hypotheticals, what would you do with the Bears' no. 3 overall pick? That can't be ruled out if the market develops aggressively.
 

Saints Rest

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Who would everyone's target be at #12 if Pats can get the pick for Jimmy? And assuming we kept the pick.
I'm sure they'd like to--but only if they like the player who's available at 12. Solomon Thomas might slide to 12 but he's not really an edge guy, maybe they'll like Barnett but he's not particularly athletic or big, Tim Williams is smallish and has off the field question makers--I just don't see a DL/OLB that makes sense at 12.

Some of the wideouts look decent in that range but that hasn't been BB's style. There are a couple of good looking defensive backs who make sense in that range, particularly since Ryan will almost certainly leave, Harmon very well might, and Butler may not be here for more than another year or two. Marlon Humphrey looks like the best fit but Peppers and Lattimore both would be decent fits.

I'm in love with Reuben Foster and McCaffrey, but Foster is probably gone by 12. Folks would consider McCaffrey an overdraft at 12 but he would just be perfect, particularly since James White is going to be a free agent in a year.

Like everybody else I assume that if we get 12 we trade it down because someone will be willing to overpay to draft a QB/WR/RB at 12.
Here's BB's history at New England when picking in the middle of the 1st. (I'll define that as #10-#20)
2003 -- Ty Warren #13
2008 -- Jerod Mayo #10 (started out as #7 pick, and was traded down to #10)
2011 -- Nate Solder #17

It's rare for the Pats to have any picks in that range. Even looking at picks traded away, they were usually in the 20's.

I'm not that up on the overall draft depth this season, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pats draft another DT, LB, or OT, if they do end up at #12.

(Sidenote: The Pats 2007 draft sucked.)
 

Shelterdog

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Since we're marking time with hypotheticals, what would you do with the Bears' no. 3 overall pick? That can't be ruled out if the market develops aggressively.
Assuming you can't trade if for a ten? Allen from Bama if he slides, otherwise Hooker if his medical is ok, otherwise the LSU safety.

It looks to me like there are four really special prospects this year (Garret, Allen, Hooker, Adams) so I'm fine with any of those four.
 

dcmissle

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Assuming you can't trade if for a ten? Allen from Bama if he slides, otherwise Hooker if his medical is ok, otherwise the LSU safety.

It looks to me like there are four really special prospects this year (Garret, Allen, Hooker, Adams) so I'm fine with any of those four.
That would be awesome; we have not had a pick in this range since the very beginning with Seymour.

Considering Brady's age risk, Brissett's performance risk and the apparent shaping market for JG at this point, I'll be a bit disappointed if he does not return this pick or its equivalent. What BB does with it is his business, but we'll be giving a lot if we deal him.
 

Shelterdog

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It's a weak year for OL. If they are aiming to draft Solder's heir, they'd be better off trading out to next year.
Drafting a Solder replacement isn't in the cards but a swing tackle somewhere between the second and fourth round makes a ton of sense; you need three pretty good tackles and in my mind we're at two (Solder and Cannon).
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Drafting a Solder replacement isn't in the cards but a swing tackle somewhere between the second and fourth round makes a ton of sense; you need three pretty good tackles and in my mind we're at two (Solder and Cannon).
Agreed, I was just responding to Saints Rest. There's very little chance they'd use a top pick on OT. Just not the year.
 

BuellMiller

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Here's BB's history at New England when picking in the middle of the 1st. (I'll define that as #10-#20)
2003 -- Ty Warren #13
2008 -- Jerod Mayo #10 (started out as #7 pick, and was traded down to #10)
2011 -- Nate Solder #17

It's rare for the Pats to have any picks in that range. Even looking at picks traded away, they were usually in the 20's.

I'm not that up on the overall draft depth this season, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pats draft another DT, LB, or OT, if they do end up at #12.

(Sidenote: The Pats 2007 draft sucked.)
In their defense, they did get Moss, Welker, and Mayo with their 2007 picks.
 

MarkBT

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Who would everyone's target be at #12 if Pats can get the pick for Jimmy? And assuming we kept the pick.
Here's three prospects I like in that range:

Solomon Thomas, DL, Stanford. Big, strong, and athletic with solid production. The scouting report indicates he's sort of a "tweener" as opposed to a true end or tackle. But with some uncertainty on our DL with Long, Sheard and Branch, this guy would be nice to add to the younger core of Brown, Valentine and Flowers.

OJ Howard, TE, Alabama. A complete tight end who creates problem in the passing game, and comes from a program where he contributed in the run game. Would provide necessary depth at the position and can hopefully grow into a starting role.

Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State. I watched this kid every weekend. He possesses rare playmaking ability, and has exceptional ball skills (he made some of the most impressive INT's I've ever seen this season). Would provide nice leverage negotiating with Harmon, and since he's really only had one year starting, should grow into leader of secondary as McCourty begins his decline.
 

DJnVa

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Mike & Mike with Tom Waddle discuss this very scenario this morning (begins at the 9 minute mark)

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=18683224
Jesus, could Golic miss the point any more than he did?

The guy said "if you think JG is worth a top 3 pick, why wouldn't you trade that for him?" with the caveats about his contract.

And Golic kept saying "But if his grade isn't that high, why would you do that?"
 

snowmanny

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The dumbest argument they brought up on that (and every other show I've heard this week) was that Ryan Mallet, Brian Hoyer, and Matt Cassel didn't turn out to be great quarterbacks so why will Jimmy Garoppolo be one?
 

tims4wins

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This is all so dumb. If you think he will be a good NFL starter you would have absolutely no problem giving up a first round pick and quite possibly the first pick in the draft.
 

MarkBT

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This is all so dumb. If you think he will be a good NFL starter you would have absolutely no problem giving up a first round pick and quite possibly the first pick in the draft.
This. How a team/analyst that is willing to draft/advocate for Mitch Trubisky in the 1st round, admits JG is a solid NFL starter, but then concludes JG is also NOT worth a 1st round pick is beyond me...
 

Red Averages

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This. How a team/analyst that is willing to draft/advocate for Mitch Trubisky in the 1st round, admits JG is a solid NFL starter, but then concludes JG is also NOT worth a 1st round pick is beyond me...
Yes, plus Goff got 4yrs, 30mm w/27.4mm guaranteed...

JG is due 1mm in his final year.
 

Ed Hillel

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Or if you don't want to listen "a 2 and a 4", based on Matt Cassell's trade and having played in more games.
None of the college kids are ready to step in and play (Watson is closest but still not ready), which might boost this to a mid 1st rounder, although he'd swallow hard to do it.
I like this theoretical game where teams get to choose which pick in the first round they're going to give up as if they're in charge of picking all 32.
 

BigSoxFan

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Patriots media machine? Lolz, Bill. A 2 and 4 for a starting-caliber QB who is dirt cheap next year? The media members who aren't part of Kraft's expansive media machine are simply going to lose their shit when they see what we get for Garoppolo.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I like this theoretical game where teams get to choose which pick in the first round they're going to give up as if they're in charge of picking all 32.
Agree with your point, but there is the scenario that, say, Chicago wanted him, they might be able to find a trade partner in the middle of the round, trade the #3 down and pick up some quality asset and then flip the first for JG.

Not that I in any way think Polian meant that, but it's a thought to add to the discussion. If we think CLE, SF and CHI aren't going to pay such high price as a top 3 pick - and further that while a deep draft, there is only a handful of true impact players, maybe they could swing deal, pick up pick around #10 and a 2nd or 3rd rounder to soften the blow?
 

Untold

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Walter Football - and I have no idea on the quality or legitimacy of their sources - write that "NFL managers" think JG is only worth a 'second day' pick. There is no way I think that NE trades him for just a second round pick. NFL Live has a quant (statistician, think Nate Silver) who thinks that because Cleveland is reported interested the number of picks they have actually increase JG's value. I can't see the three primary teams (CHI, SF and CLE) giving up their 1st (although if they think JG is their answer at QB logic dictates they should.) I wouldn't discount HOU, but instead of picks they might give up a player (Pats reportedly tried to trade Collins for Hopkins or Joseph.) I can't begin to guess how this goes down - I think most likely we end up keeping him - but if we get a 1st it will probably involve JG and our first, that or we get a 2nd + late round this year and a conditional 2018 pick.
 

DJnVa

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The dumbest argument they brought up on that (and every other show I've heard this week) was that Ryan Mallet, Brian Hoyer, and Matt Cassel didn't turn out to be great quarterbacks so why will Jimmy Garoppolo be one?
The Pats released Hoyer and traded Mallett for a 6th round pick. They weren't exactly blowing smoke up anyone's ass about them.
 

pappymojo

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I think a lot of the recent comments would have been more appropriate for the Jimmy G Dilemma thread.