2017 Patriots Defense

[Pxer]

It's a little tricky with no 3rd QB on the roster, but can we read any more into the Jimmy G situation if he's not dealt for defensive help?

Is Bill really going to forego a likely draft pick haul (this past spring) and help for an apparent Achilles heel (the defense) just to franchise and trade Garoppolo in the offseason?

All of this assumes a trade market, but if BB doesn't kick the tires, you've got to think that's another notch in the "Jimmy G is the heir apparent" case.

Will be interesting to monitor if the defense continues to struggle.

 

[E5 Yaz]

It's a little tricky with no 3rd QB on the roster, but can we read any more into the Jimmy G situation if he's not dealt for defensive help?

Is Bill really going to forego a likely draft pick haul (this past spring) and help for an apparent Achilles heel (the defense) just to franchise and trade Garoppolo in the offseason?

All of this assumes a trade market, but if BB doesn't kick the tires, you've got to think that's another notch in the "Jimmy G is the heir apparent" case.

Will be interesting to monitor if the defense continues to struggle.

They not trading him in-season ... you have no one in place to replace him for a complicated offense

 

[Stitch01]

Players with four or more seasons have their base salaries guaranteed if they're on a roster Week 1, so cutting those guys isn't saving any money.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/08/31/refresher-on-the-vested-veteran-guarantee/

I don't know why I even bother to point that out, as no one thinks this can or will happen.

Thinking more on the Ryan-for-Gilmore swap, Ryan's role was always pretty underrated. He was a guy with meh physical tools, but he knew every position in the defense - outside CB, slot, he even got the odd rep at safety. He really helped stabilize the D last year, taking on a role where he played slot in nickel or outside in base, which is pretty tough sledding. Moreover, he came from the same Rutgers system as McCourty and Harmon, and he and Harmon were teammates for three years in college, and they played together professionally for years, so those guys were on the same page.

Not only have they replaced Ryan with Gilmore - who does not appear to know the defense or communicate well with the other DBs - from a roster perspective, it seems they've tried to slide Rowe into Ryan's slot duties and it hasn't paid off. On paper, it makes sense - Rowe is a big, agile guy who played some safety in college - but the slot is one of the most complex positions in NE's D (you basically have to know all the CB and all the LB assignments) and he doesn't seem to be getting it either. His tackling was a problem yesterday, too, which is a no-no inside. So now you have two guys who don't really know what they're doing and aren't on the same page, and McCourty is trying to do way too much to compensate and he's screwing up, too, and now no one trusts anyone and no one can just do their job.

Rowe's injury might be a blessing because he seems to be one of the problems. Fixing the slot CB issue will help both the pass and run D - maybe they put Jonathan Jones in there, or maybe it's McCourty or Chung in the slot with the other S (Harmon and Richards I guess) taking on bigger roles. Or maybe they need a PS guy to step up. If they can nail down the slot, then Gilmore a) has a simplified role (outside CB) and b) is the only question mark in terms of communication, and then they can focus on fixing that. That's probably a more realistic recipe than benching the big money man.

Oh of course, even better, that's why the spotrac site was showing no savings, forgot about that rule and the week 1 cuts that we see every year.

I agree its not going to happen. I was trying to show the absurdity of trying to get Gilmore off the roster.

Ryan was somewhat underrated in that he was a useful player who got shit on a lot, but he's probably not a guy worth paying either (not saying you are arguing that he is) and the Titans secondary has been horrendous thus far.

Your potential solutions strike me as both logical avenues to try and unlikely to result in a "good enough" defense.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Doug Kyed pointed out yesterday -- and the beat guys were all over Gilmore, so they've heard something internally -- that the Patriots broke their mold and signed Gilmore w/o him taking a visit with the team.

If true that's a fire-able offense for someone. You don't get so desperate that you give a guy huge money without at least bringing him in. That's a Jets-ian move.

Gilmore's too stupid to pick up on whatever scheme the Pats are running, as evidenced by the numerous references to communications issues. If he can't do anything but play man and only the man in front of him, a pre-signing visit might have sussed that out. As it is he's a goddamn albatross on the entire team. He can't play and they can't move him, and they might have to trade a better player to bring in help to shore up the defense that Gilmore's killing.

As Bill James once said, that's hanging yourself with a custom-fit noose. Not what you want to be doing when it's very likely Brady's final season.

 

[tims4wins]

Seems like, with Rowe healthy, the logical thing to do is have Butler play in the slot in the nickel (aka new base) D, with Rowe and Gilmore on the outside. If Rowe is down for a while, then I guess leave things as is with Jones playing nickel? Too bad Edelman is hurt, ha.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Kyed's film breakdown on Gilmore and his short-lived "benching"

https://nesn.com/2017/10/patriots-panthers-film-review-what-went-wrong-on-coverage-breakdowns/

Doug Kyed‏Verified account @DougKyed 21h21 hours ago
Belichick and the Patriots rarely sign a free agent without hosting him on a visit. Stephon Gilmore was a rare exception.

 

[Stitch01]

BB has pretty much total control over the roster. He's the guy who is accountable for the Gilmore signing.

Dont think its that likely its Brady's final season as of now. He's the best player on the team and is here on a very reasonable contract.

 

[Super Nomario]

Ryan was somewhat underrated in that he was a useful player who got shit on a lot, but he's probably not a guy worth paying either (not saying you are arguing that he is) and the Titans secondary has been horrendous thus far.

Yeah, half of what I mentioned is stuff that makes him more valuable to the Patriots than anybody else, so it's no surprise if he isn't living up to that contract in Tennessee. It is kind of too bad for both sides that they couldn't work something out, but I wouldn't have given him that deal either.

Your potential solutions strike me as both logical avenues to try and unlikely to result in a "good enough" defense.

I guess it depends on what you mean by "good enough." What, 30-40% of Carolina's passing yards yesterday were on broken plays and missed assignments? I would take the performance against the Saints at this point.

 

[esfr]

My guess is they thought losing Butler this season was a real possibility so they signed Gilmore quickly, based on film and pre-draft evaluation they had of him years ago. Physically, they appear correct. He's not beaten often when he has the coverage down. Mentally, there have obviously been issues. If he doesn't have the mental capacity to pick up their systems, maybe they should just try putting him on an island.

It's certainly plausible, but it does not seem like the most likely scenario to me. With what we have seen from their scouting of opponents, I think its fair to conclude they had a reasonable handle on Gimore's physical skills and football IQ. They may have been off a little, but I have a hard time assuming they completely screwed the pooch on that assessment. I think it's a bit more complicated than that...which doesn't make it any easier to fix.

 

[Super Nomario]

Doug Kyed‏Verified account @DougKyed 21h21 hours ago
Belichick and the Patriots rarely sign a free agent without hosting him on a visit. Stephon Gilmore was a rare exception.

This sounds really bad but I think it just the reality of signing guys with the legal tampering period. You have to agree to a deal before the market officially opens, and that means not meeting with players before they sign.

 

[esfr]

ommunications issues comments from members of the secondary points directly at Gilmore. He's the new guy, he's already had several lapses where he's let a receiver go when he had no backing help. To me that's all on Gilmore. Hell we saw him to that last year in Buffalo (Hogan torches him for a TD when he let him go thinking he had over the top help). And 4 games into the season the issues are as bad as they've ever been in the 18 years Belichick's been here and I strongly suspect Gilmore's too stupid to figure this out.

The defense overall is crap, but Gilmore is the major problem IMO

Gilmore hasn't been part of the solution, but I don't see how he's been the major problem. Butler has been terrible, McCourty far below his standard and Gilmore wasn't even on the screen for some of the brutal blown coverages. The penalties, especially the 2nd one wreaked of lack of concentration and discipline for sure - but there is plenty of culpability to go around. Laying the blame at the feet of the guy with the big contract is one of New England's finest traditions (matched only by taking offense to otherwise innocuous post-game comments) but I just don't think this conclusion is logical at this stage.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Gilmore hasn't been part of the solution, but I don't see how he's been the major problem. Butler has been terrible, McCourty far below his standard and Gilmore wasn't even on the screen for some of the brutal blown coverages. The penalties, especially the 2nd one wreaked of lack of concentration and discipline for sure - but there is plenty of culpability to go around. Laying the blame at the feet of the guy with the big contract is one of New England's finest traditions (matched only by taking offense to otherwise innocuous post-game comments) but I just don't think this conclusion is logical at this stage.

He was the only one benched after the first half yesterday. If Rowe hadn't been hurt, who knows how long he would have sat

Making cliche comments about NE's finest traditions is just poor fucking posting

 

[RedOctober3829]

He was the only one benched after the first half yesterday. If Rowe hadn't been hurt, who knows how long he would have sat

Making cliche comments about NE's finest traditions is just poor fucking posting

McCourty has had his fair share of mistakes this year. Ed Dickson looked like Travis Kelce on the seam routes yesterday. I think we can all agree that there have been too many breakdowns and that is on everyone. Pinning this failure on 1 guy is wrong. Maybe they should go to more man to man coverages so that Gilmore can just play where he's more comfortable. He came in here known as a really good man to man corner.

 

[Super Nomario]

McCourty has had his fair share of mistakes this year. Ed Dickson looked like Travis Kelce on the seam routes yesterday. I think we can all agree that there have been too many breakdowns and that is on everyone. Pinning this failure on 1 guy is wrong. Maybe they should go to more man to man coverages so that Gilmore can just play where he's more comfortable. He came in here known as a really good man to man corner.

It seems like they are playing a lot of man-to-man. They just can't seem to figure out who covers whom a) when a guy goes in motion presnap b) when receivers cross post-snap.

 

[esfr]

Making cliche comments about NE's finest traditions is just poor fucking posting

Yikes...a little aggressive ! I could argue fingering the high-priced FA was a cliche or concluding anybody that hasn't played well in 4 career games is too stupid to ever figure it out is a cliche...I don't see any DB playing well or virtually any defensive player playing up to expectations. It strikes me as a little subjective to finger Gilmore as the primary problem thus far when coaches have clearly identified problems with other players...namely Butler, as well.

 

[Ed Hillel]

It seems like they are playing a lot of man-to-man. They just can't seem to figure out who covers whom a) when a guy goes in motion presnap b) when receivers cross post-snap.

If it's a big issue causing confusion, why not just have the DB cover whomever they line up against, regardless of presnap movement?

 

[Super Nomario]

If it's a big issue causing confusion, why not just have the DB cover whomever they line up against, regardless of presnap movement?

Teams will rub route the crap out of them. We saw that against NO, when Gilmore got knocked down in a bunch and his man got wide open for a huge gain.

EDIT: also, with pre-snap motion, it can be difficult to get over to the other side when there is motion across the formation. There are run game implications, too.

 

[Tony C]

Yep, the pile on on Gilmore ignores this was a collective clusterfuck. Rowe may have replaced Gilmore for that one play, but he was absolutely awful -- that was the most pathetic tackling I've seen in a long time.

 

[lexrageorge]

If true that's a fire-able offense for someone. You don't get so desperate that you give a guy huge money without at least bringing him in. That's a Jets-ian move.

Gilmore's too stupid to pick up on whatever scheme the Pats are running, as evidenced by the numerous references to communications issues. If he can't do anything but play man and only the man in front of him, a pre-signing visit might have sussed that out. As it is he's a goddamn albatross on the entire team. He can't play and they can't move him, and they might have to trade a better player to bring in help to shore up the defense that Gilmore's killing.

As Bill James once said, that's hanging yourself with a custom-fit noose. Not what you want to be doing when it's very likely Brady's final season.

Well, I don't think Belichick is going to fire himself, and he's certainly earned enough rope with Kraft and Co that it would take a lot more than this one mistake to result in BB's dismissal. And I don't see how the final decision to sign Gilmore "sight unseen" was anyone but Belichick's.

 

[soxfan121]

Players with four or more seasons have their base salaries guaranteed if they're on a roster Week 1, so cutting those guys isn't saving any money.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/08/31/refresher-on-the-vested-veteran-guarantee/

I don't know why I even bother to point that out, as no one thinks this can or will happen.

Thinking more on the Ryan-for-Gilmore swap, Ryan's role was always pretty underrated. He was a guy with meh physical tools, but he knew every position in the defense - outside CB, slot, he even got the odd rep at safety. He really helped stabilize the D last year, taking on a role where he played slot in nickel or outside in base, which is pretty tough sledding. Moreover, he came from the same Rutgers system as McCourty and Harmon, and he and Harmon were teammates for three years in college, and they played together professionally for years, so those guys were on the same page.

Not only have they replaced Ryan with Gilmore - who does not appear to know the defense or communicate well with the other DBs - from a roster perspective, it seems they've tried to slide Rowe into Ryan's slot duties and it hasn't paid off. On paper, it makes sense - Rowe is a big, agile guy who played some safety in college - but the slot is one of the most complex positions in NE's D (you basically have to know all the CB and all the LB assignments) and he doesn't seem to be getting it either. His tackling was a problem yesterday, too, which is a no-no inside. So now you have two guys who don't really know what they're doing and aren't on the same page, and McCourty is trying to do way too much to compensate and he's screwing up, too, and now no one trusts anyone and no one can just do their job.

Rowe's injury might be a blessing because he seems to be one of the problems. Fixing the slot CB issue will help both the pass and run D - maybe they put Jonathan Jones in there, or maybe Butler bumps inside in nickel, or maybe it's McCourty or Chung in the slot with the other S (Harmon and Richards I guess) taking on bigger roles. Or maybe they need a PS guy to step up. If they can nail down the slot, then Gilmore a) has a simplified role (outside CB) and b) is the only question mark in terms of communication, and then they can focus on fixing that. That's probably a more realistic recipe than benching the big money man.

First, good god no. Please, anything but Richards. He's the destitute man's Tavon Wilson.

I'm gonna backtrack on the idea of benching Gilmore; you can't bench everyone and everyone sorta needs to be benched, so work the problem. Rowe being a part of the problem also explains why they were moderately better vs. NO.

I wonder if the solution is man outside, two deep zone on the inside - it won't help them stop anyone, but it'll stop them from beating themselves and make the other team earn it with repeated conversions. Put Gilmore (and Butler) on an island and tell them "perform."

 

[E5 Yaz]

Mike Reiss ESPN Staff Writer
When asked about what steps the Patriots' defense can take to improve communication, captain Dont'a Hightower started with the word "accountability."

 

[RedOctober3829]

It seems like they are playing a lot of man-to-man. They just can't seem to figure out who covers whom a) when a guy goes in motion presnap b) when receivers cross post-snap.

You’re right.

“The most interesting revelation from rewatching the game — almost all of the Patriots’ coverage breakdowns came in man-to-man, not zone, as many of us hypothesized on Sunday. The Patriots played man coverage for much of the first half, but instead of matching up a cornerback to a specific receiver, they kept Gilmore on the right side and Butler on the left all game as a way to prevent Newton from breaking free on scrambles. When the Panthers’ players went in motion, the Patriots’ defenders stuck to their side of the field, but rotated their coverage. They just didn’t communicate it well.

At halftime, the Patriots switched to more zone coverage, and had fewer breakdowns. We counted zone coverage for 23 passing plays, and man to man for 11.”

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/patriots/2017/10/02/time-hold-belichick-patricia-accountable-for-breakdowns/Ts9tSHvjbkbNeABlk06xUL/story.html

 

[Stitch01]

Newton has some of the worst man/zone splits in the league over the last two years (not sure if its entirely his fault given his receiving corps) and teams play more man against Carolina than expected. So being forced to play zone because the defense can't properly play man was a pretty bad outcome.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-qbs-against-man-schemes-or-zone

 

[DJnVa]

Reiss has you covered. Check out the 3rd pic

The worst part of that is it was 3rd and 4. Had he dumped it short to Funchess, even if he recovers somehow, it's still moving the chains. And when you are giving up big play after big play you have to get off the field if you can.

 

[DJnVa]

If true that's a fire-able offense for someone. You don't get so desperate that you give a guy huge money without at least bringing him in. That's a Jets-ian move.

So, you mean BB? Because there's no way that happened without his input.

 

[ifmanis5]

538 post on defense: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-pats-have-gotten-by-with-bad-defenses-but-this-is-ridiculous/?ex_cid=538twitter

Worst NFL defense since 2006.

 

[dcmissle]

Seems right. The numbers are off the charts in every conceivable category.

Read today that opposing QBs have more TDs, higher completion percentage, and greater yards per attempt than Tom Brady.

 

[Harry Hooper]

They not trading him in-season ... you have no one in place to replace him for a complicated offense

Indeed, see the other thread. JimmyG almost got in the game last Sunday.

 

[EricFeczko]

Seems right. The numbers are off the charts in every conceivable category.

Read today that opposing QBs have more TDs, higher completion percentage, and greater yards per attempt than Tom Brady.

I'm not sure that remains true after controlling for sacks. Sadly, we are doing better (than historically terrible) in sacking the QB.

 

[dcmissle]

Last week it was Cam the apex predator.

Now it's Jameis the boy wonder and Dirk the QB whisperer.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/10/04/belichick-koetter-did-as-good-a-job-with-winston-as-any-coach-in-a-qbs-first-two-years/

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

It's disappointing that the stats tell you what you think your eyes were seeing when what you're hoping is that it's not as terrible as it seems.

There have been some very crappy NFL teams with very crappy players with coaches who couldn't coach their way out of a paper bag that have put together better defenses in the last decade than the Patriots have put on the field in the last 4 games.

It has been just so unbelievably awful. It's hard to believe that you couldn't get 11 guys of barely replacement level talent to do a better job. The Fozzy Whittaker TD where that tight end whose name I never even heard of was also wide open for a TD if he wanted one may be one of the worst plays I've ever seen, and unfortunately, I'm not sure it makes the top 3 for the Patriots this year.

I'm not sure I've even seen stuff like it in college. It's like the shaky video taken from a camera at a high school game where like the state champion is playing sisters of mercy and the game is 58-0 in the second quarter.

It's just absolutely staggering. That it can't get worse is I guess the only thing you can say.

 

[dcmissle]

Good word choices. We're staggered because it's unbelievable.

People are war gaming the rest of the season in the last game goat thread. I find it pointless. Because, for example, if this isn't a dream we wake up from soon, going 6-0 against divisional foes is wish-casting.

I am one-game-at-a-timing everything. Nothing exists beyond tomorrow night. Just give me a win, no matter how ugly, and some improvement on defense. Some, even if it's just a little bit.

 

[Super Nomario]

Good word choices. We're staggered because it's unbelievable.

People are war gaming the rest of the season in the last game goat thread. I find it pointless. Because, for example, if this isn't a dream we wake up from soon, going 6-0 against divisional foes is wish-casting.

I am one-game-at-a-timing everything. Nothing exists beyond tomorrow night. Just give me a win, no matter how ugly, and some improvement on defense. Some, even if it's just a little bit.

I have decided to hedge by starting Jameis and Brate in DFS. If the D doesn't improve, maybe I can make a little money.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

It's disappointing that the stats tell you what you think your eyes were seeing when what you're hoping is that it's not as terrible as it seems.

There have been some very crappy NFL teams with very crappy players with coaches who couldn't coach their way out of a paper bag that have put together better defenses in the last decade than the Patriots have put on the field in the last 4 games.

It has been just so unbelievably awful. It's hard to believe that you couldn't get 11 guys of barely replacement level talent to do a better job. The Fozzy Whittaker TD where that tight end whose name I never even heard of was also wide open for a TD if he wanted one may be one of the worst plays I've ever seen, and unfortunately, I'm not sure it makes the top 3 for the Patriots this year.

I'm not sure I've even seen stuff like it in college. It's like the shaky video taken from a camera at a high school game where like the state champion is playing sisters of mercy and the game is 58-0 in the second quarter.

It's just absolutely staggering. That it can't get worse is I guess the only thing you can say.

I'm oddly comforted by the sheer number of massive breakdowns in coverage. It just doesn't seem possible that a Bill Belichick coached team could keep that up over a whole season. If they were communicating well, playing the scheme, and still getting beat like a drum simply due to lack of talent, I'd be very very worried. While there is probably somewhat of a talent issue with the front seven, a team that is historically awful mainly due to poor communication, lack of familiarity with each other, and lack of focus has a lot more upside, especially when working with a staff that has historically been really good at getting their players to focus and communicate.

At least that is what I'm telling myself these days.

 

[bsj]

What's Nink up to?

Last month it seemed he was still working out and staying in shape, wasn't quite 100% sure he was done. You would think if ever there would be motivation to come back this would be it.

Or he may be 100% sure now.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I'm oddly comforted by the sheer number of massive breakdowns in coverage. It just doesn't seem possible that a Bill Belichick coached team could keep that up over a whole season. If they were communicating well, playing the scheme, and still getting beat like a drum simply due to lack of talent, I'd be very very worried. While there is probably somewhat of a talent issue with the front seven, a team that is historically awful mainly due to poor communication, lack of familiarity with each other, and lack of focus has a lot more upside, especially when working with a staff that has historically been really good at getting their players to focus and communicate.

At least that is what I'm telling myself these days.

I hope there's something to this. I mean, Troy Brown has played championship caliber defense with this head coach at the helm. He doesn't need his players to be super talented.

I guess the thing that worries me is that he does seem to want the right kind of players. And that may mean certain qualities that we lack at the moment. The good news is that Belichick isn't going to let it just happen without a fight and there are no sacred cows. If Gilmore can't do it, he won't be allowed to try forever just because he has a big contract. The contract may be an albatross for years to come, but at least we have a coach that's secure enough in his approach and job that he doesn't give a crap what is or isn't conventional or expected.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I hope there's something to this. I mean, Troy Brown has played championship caliber defense with this head coach at the helm. He doesn't need his players to be super talented.

I guess the thing that worries me is that he does seem to want the right kind of players. And that may mean certain qualities that we lack at the moment. The good news is that Belichick isn't going to let it just happen without a fight and there are no sacred cows. If Gilmore can't do it, he won't be allowed to try forever just because he has a big contract. The contract may be an albatross for years to come, but at least we have a coach that's secure enough in his approach and job that he doesn't give a crap what is or isn't conventional or expected.

Agreed. I'm quietly confident that what we're seeing now is like peak Duane Starks era 2005, everything just going wrong and snowballing after the attempt to integrate some new faces and put other guys in new roles, and that BB/Patricia will eventually figure it out and come up with a defense that is at least minimally competent. I'm not sure that Gilmore is such a problem that he'll get the Starks treatment, especially if all he has to do is play the outside, but I definitely agree BB will do whatever gives the team the best chance to win, regardless of contracts.

 

[soxfan121]

What's Nink up to?

Last month it seemed he was still working out and staying in shape, wasn't quite 100% sure he was done. You would think if ever there would be motivation to come back this would be it.

Or he may be 100% sure now.

He called into Toucher & Rich this week, crying-laughing over their segment on the Western Connecticut football broadcast (specifically, the sideline reporters). He said he'd been dropping his kid off at school, "learning to love my new routine" and listening to T&R on his drive. They didn't ask any Patriots specific questions, but there was a joking reference to "I hope you're still in shape" and Nink laughed, ignored it, and sounded like a guy who is adjusting well to retirement.

IOW, based on a two minute call in to sports radio, I'm gonna guess that Ninkovich is firmly retired and won't be walking through that door.

 

[bsj]

He called into Toucher & Rich this week, crying-laughing over their segment on the Western Connecticut football broadcast (specifically, the sideline reporters). He said he'd been dropping his kid off at school, "learning to love my new routine" and listening to T&R on his drive. They didn't ask any Patriots specific questions, but there was a joking reference to "I hope you're still in shape" and Nink laughed, ignored it, and sounded like a guy who is adjusting well to retirement.

IOW, based on a two minute call in to sports radio, I'm gonna guess that Ninkovich is firmly retired and won't be walking through that door.

Gotcha. I guess the rumblings last month were just that.

 

[dbn]

The New England Patriots Bend but Also Break Defense (I leave it as an exercise to the reader to determine which points are the control sample of non-NE team defenses, 2001-2016; which are NE team defenses 2001-2016; and which is the 2017 NE team defense):

Explanation of the method here.

 

[mwonow]

Zolak gets no further than other media types in trying to dig into what ails the D:

http://www.patriots.com/video/2017/10/04/dunkin-donuts-coffee-coach-104-issues-defense

Cool bit at 3:40, though. There are defensive backfields as clueless as the Pats!

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Zolak gets no further than other media types in trying to dig into what ails the D:

http://www.patriots.com/video/2017/10/04/dunkin-donuts-coffee-coach-104-issues-defense

Cool bit at 3:40, though. There are defensive backfields as clueless as the Pats!

It's interesting that for Zo's first question about defense BB only will say that Zo has touched on some issues, but then he moves right on to call out "missing big plays" on offense and not being effective in the "kicking game." I know that after a loss Belichick is likely just trying to get the hell out of there and back to practice. But defense is such an elephant in the room. What's the motivational or psychological reason for drawing an obviously phony equivalence between what we've been seeing on defense and supposed special teams and offense problems? I mean, I get they are inter-related. If Brady hits Cooks for a TD instead of a field goal on the first drive maybe the Panthers press and make mistakes or whatever. But Brady is not the problem. Ryan Allen has been mediocre but he's not the problem. Is he just saying words that nobody believes just to get out of the room? Or does he genuinely believe the problems right now are total team failure? Or is the idea that he doesn't want to pick on defense specifically because he wants to convey the message to his team (or maybe the league) that it's not really that bad, but just that the team has missed plays overall?

The guy is great when it comes to giving away nothing. But I'm really curious what's at play here. It can't be a refusal to call things out that are poor -- he threw the "kicking game" out there. Is it possible that he doesn't really think there's anything terribly wrong with the defense? I guess that would be a good sign. Just looking for anything to cling to here.

 

[Van Everyman]

I think you're overthinking this. I took Belichick's answer as being a standard dodge of his where he refuses to answer a specific question by commenting on how the team "needs to play better in all three phases of the game."

As for why he's dodging it, my guess is that he doesn't see any advantage to hashing this out in the media -- maybe it's a personnel thing (i.e., Gilmore). Or maybe it's a chemistry thing (i.e., Butler being upset about the contract stuff). Honestly, it could be anything.

 

[mwonow]

It's interesting that for Zo's first question about defense BB only will say that Zo has touched on some issues, but then he moves right on to call out "missing big plays" on offense and not being effective in the "kicking game." I know that after a loss Belichick is likely just trying to get the hell out of there and back to practice. But defense is such an elephant in the room. What's the motivational or psychological reason for drawing an obviously phony equivalence between what we've been seeing on defense and supposed special teams and offense problems? I mean, I get they are inter-related. If Brady hits Cooks for a TD instead of a field goal on the first drive maybe the Panthers press and make mistakes or whatever. But Brady is not the problem. Ryan Allen has been mediocre but he's not the problem. Is he just saying words that nobody believes just to get out of the room? Or does he genuinely believe the problems right now are total team failure? Or is the idea that he doesn't want to pick on defense specifically because he wants to convey the message to his team (or maybe the league) that it's not really that bad, but just that the team has missed plays overall?

The guy is great when it comes to giving away nothing. But I'm really curious what's at play here. It can't be a refusal to call things out that are poor -- he threw the "kicking game" out there. Is it possible that he doesn't really think there's anything terribly wrong with the defense? I guess that would be a good sign. Just looking for anything to cling to here.

I think it's twofold - one, he doesn't want an us good/them bad vibe between units in the locker room (the way other teams seem to have - usually, those with good D/bad O), and the other is (as Van said while I was typing) that he's not going to play anything out in the media. "We handled that internally" is one of those go-to BBisms.

 

[bankshot1]

I just saw Alan Branch did not make the Tampa trip. Are we seeing locker-room "stuff" developing and BB reacting to it?

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

So, you guys are saying he doesn't mean, "it's all going to be fine"?

I think I shouldn't try to read anything into it. I'm kind of dreading tonight's game. I never underestimate this team's ability to turn adversity around. But with two really good WRs, and good TE play, plus a QB who seems to be figuring things out, on the road on a short week, this doesn't seem to be the time where we're going to see something overly dramatic in terms of improvement. I guess just figure out a way to score one point more than them and then take the long mini-bye and figure things out.

 

[Super Nomario]

So, you guys are saying he doesn't mean, "it's all going to be fine"?

I think I shouldn't try to read anything into it. I'm kind of dreading tonight's game. I never underestimate this team's ability to turn adversity around. But with two really good WRs, and good TE play, plus a QB who seems to be figuring things out, on the road on a short week, this doesn't seem to be the time where we're going to see something overly dramatic in terms of improvement. I guess just figure out a way to score one point more than them and then take the long mini-bye and figure things out.

Honestly, the performance to date has been bad enough that we should not expect anything overly dramatic in terms of improvement, period. It is not only the worst four-game stretch to open the season, it is likely the worst four-game stretch at any point in the BB era. There's basically no precedent for a team that has been as bad as NE's defense to rebound to even average. Best-case scenario is probably still the worst Pats D in a couple decades.

 

[Stitch01]

I just saw Alan Branch did not make the Tampa trip. Are we seeing locker-room "stuff" developing and BB reacting to it?

Maybe, but not the first time they disciplined Branch or the first time in recent years they left an underperforming vet home. Would bet its more on the field, but who knows.

Honestly, the performance to date has been bad enough that we should not expect anything overly dramatic in terms of improvement, period. It is not only the worst four-game stretch to open the season, it is likely the worst four-game stretch at any point in the BB era. There's basically no precedent for a team that has been as bad as NE's defense to rebound to even average. Best-case scenario is probably still the worst Pats D in a couple decades.

I partly disgree with this because they've been so bad. Yeah, I dont think they're getting to an average defense, but generic bad defense is a meaningful improvement over what we have seen so far (some of the worst defensive play in modern NFL history) and that does seem like a reasonable goal. The linebacker corps probably is going to stay bad, and the DL probably isnt going to morph into an above average unit, but the secondary should be able to improve the communication issues at some point and not be a tire fire. Getting into the right coverage isnt splitting the atom. That should cut down on the chunk plays and (hopefully) just turn this into a bad defense, but maybe one that wins a lot of track meets.

 

[Super Nomario]

I partly disgree with this because they've been so bad. Yeah, I dont think they're getting to an average defense, but generic bad defense is a meaningful improvement over what we have seen so far (some of the worst defensive play in modern NFL history) and that does seem like a reasonable goal. The linebacker corps probably is going to stay bad, and the DL probably isnt going to morph into an above average unit, but the secondary should be able to improve the communication issues at some point and not be a tire fire. Getting into the right coverage isnt splitting the atom. That should cut down on the chunk plays and (hopefully) just turn this into a bad defense, but maybe one that wins a lot of track meets.

OK, I buy that. Right now they're on pace to be worse than the 2015 Saints and the worst defense in the last 15 years at least - I have confidence they will probably improve to merely bad. Whether that qualifies as an "overly dramatic" improvement is in the eye of the beholder, I guess.

 

[Stitch01]

I think its dramatic because they're a Super Bowl contender with a bad defense, but aren't with the slop we've seen so far.