2017 Patriots FA & Trades Thread

Jnai

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I don't really know a ton about the economics of this, but imagine that you were on a completely level playing field with every other team and had $15 to spend on either Butler's salary or $15 to spend on other players.

Supposing you can spend $15 on other players that will return equivalent value as Butler (either individually or in aggregate), and supposing those players have no draft picks attached, it's foolish to spend the $15 on Butler, because you can either spend $15 on other players and receive a #1 pick in compensation, or spend $15 on Butler and receive no compensation.
 

dbn

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The Butler tender is news that I've been waiting on, but it isn't even a little bit surprising that they placed a 1st round tender on him, is it? I can't think of any reason for them to have made any other decision.
 

Spelunker

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I don't really know a ton about the economics of this, but imagine that you were on a completely level playing field with every other team and had $15 to spend on either Butler's salary or $15 to spend on other players.

Supposing you can spend $15 on other players that will return equivalent value as Butler (either individually or in aggregate), and supposing those players have no draft picks attached, it's foolish to spend the $15 on Butler, because you can either spend $15 on other players and receive a #1 pick in compensation, or spend $15 on Butler and receive no compensation.
Does that leave out that a chunk of that $15 is allocated to paying for the outcome of that #1?
 

esfr

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I don't really know a ton about the economics of this, but imagine that you were on a completely level playing field with every other team and had $15 to spend on either Butler's salary or $15 to spend on other players.

Supposing you can spend $15 on other players that will return equivalent value as Butler (either individually or in aggregate), and supposing those players have no draft picks attached, it's foolish to spend the $15 on Butler, because you can either spend $15 on other players and receive a #1 pick in compensation, or spend $15 on Butler and receive no compensation.
Except you can't get equivalent value players for just the $ cost of Butler. Butler's $ cost is reduced by the value of the draft pick compensation. In other words he is not paid at fair market value because he's not a free agent.
 

Stitch01

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Hard to say what the Pats do with a Butler offer until an actual one appears. At some price they probably let him walk, hard to say what that level is until we see what else is part of the offseason plan.
 

E5 Yaz

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Hard to say what the Pats do with a Butler offer until an actual one appears, at some price they probably let him walk.
Agreed, and that depends on a team out there in the middle to second half of the draft that has a desperate need at corner, decent cap room, and the thought that weakening the Patriots would be in their immediate best interest. Teams such as Pittsburgh, indianapolis and Miami come to mind.

On the other hand, it's just as likely that he gets no other offers at all.
 

Ed Hillel

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With Ryan, Bouye, and Gilmore available, I think there's enough CB talent that a contender would rather give up just the money than money and a pick. If there's one team I'd watch for, it would be Oakland. They could perhaps justify the move because they are a contender, have a relatively late pick, and it takes away from a conference rival. Pitt would fit that same bill, but they don't really have the cap space.
 
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Reverend

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FO did a pretty large study on fumble rate a couple years back, and found that fumble distribution is largely luck. The overriding rate is meaningful (and guys like Curtis Martin who fumbled once every 136 touches over roughly 4000 touches, during a time when RB generally fumbled much more than they do now, clearly have a skill), but year to year data is pretty much meaningless.

It's possible that something changed with Peterson in '15, but it's more likely that he just had an unlucky year and internalized it.
This is accurate, but it's also well established that Belichick doesn't agree with that assessment of fumbling even though he is aware of the data.
 

boca

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Agreed, and that depends on a team out there in the middle to second half of the draft that has a desperate need at corner, decent cap room, and the thought that weakening the Patriots would be in their immediate best interest. Teams such as Pittsburgh, indianapolis and Miami come to mind.

On the other hand, it's just as likely that he gets no other offers at all.
Teams are slow to give up 1st rounders in trades for QBs so I can't see a busy market for Butler given the price.
 

tims4wins

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Teams are slow to give up 1st rounders in trades for QBs so I can't see a busy market for Butler given the price.
This is a great point. Posters are skeptical that Jimmy would fetch a first, yet Butler is worth one? I realize that teams could lock up Butler whereas Jimmy would still be a UFA next year, but still
 

BaseballJones

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Well, and Butler has been really, really good for two whole years running, while JG has been really good for a game and a half.

On the flip side, a franchise QB is far more important than a #1 corner.
 

BigJimEd

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Butler has a couple years at pro bowl level play.
If there was a QB on the market with Butlers resume he'd be worth a lot more than a single first.

I would not be at all surprised if Butler gets an offer. If he was on another team, I wouldn't mind if the Pats made an offer.

If they are willing to give up 32 for Cooks, I'd think they'd prefer Butler to a late first.
 

amfox1

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Agreed, and that depends on a team out there in the middle to second half of the draft that has a desperate need at corner, decent cap room, and the thought that weakening the Patriots would be in their immediate best interest. Teams such as Pittsburgh, indianapolis and Miami come to mind.

On the other hand, it's just as likely that he gets no other offers at all.
Won't happen, but the team that should make an offer is GB. $40mm cap room, #29 pick, glaring need at CB.
 

j44thor

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When was the last time an RFA with a 1st round tender was signed by another team? Especially hard now that the NFL has eliminated the poison pill rules.
Quick google search didn't show any.

I'll be very surprised if Butler gets any offers. If they do it may be a blessing in disguise since NE has ample cap room to match any offers.
 

JohnnyK

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When was the last time an RFA with a 1st round tender was signed by another team? .
From Reiss:
Historically, one has to go back to 2003 to find an example of a team giving up a first-round pick to sign a restricted free agent; the Washington Redskins did it with receiver Laveranues Coles.
 

Red Averages

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When was the last time an RFA with a 1st round tender was signed by another team? Especially hard now that the NFL has eliminated the poison pill rules.
Quick google search didn't show any.

I'll be very surprised if Butler gets any offers. If they do it may be a blessing in disguise since NE has ample cap room to match any offers.
This is a tough comparison because there aren't many players that go from UDFA/late draft pick to probowler in their first years in the league.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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If Butler were available at say 20 in this year's draft would he be taken?

I think he might. Now that's not a great comparison because you get rookies under team control and you actually have to pay Butler whatever you have to offer him to make the Patriots not match. Still, as unlikely as RFA offers are, I wouldn't be shocked if Butler got an offer.

In completely unrelated news, the Cardinals just extended Gresham, which was a surprise to me. I thought they might be looking at Bennett. I guess they don't have cap room.
 

Saints Rest

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If Butler, as is, was somehow a member of the draft class I doubt he's there at 20.
In that same regard, is there any doubt that JG would go 1/1?

This is supposed to be an excellent draft class for CBs; I think that detracts from the value that Butler would carry as an RFA.

Conversely, it's a weak draft for QBs so that boosts the value of JG (as well as other NFL vets). I think that's why there is more talk of the teams needing QBs looking at Romo, Cousins, JG, Glennon, and Taylor (once he becomes available) as opposed to the top college guys.
 

bakahump

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If I understand.....

If I was another team and I make a sizeable but limited offer just to mess with the Patriots. Say 4 years 28 million.

Wouldnt that force the Pats to either Match the 4/28 (which they could do no problem) or take my 1st.

IMHO I think they rather have Butler so they match.

I think you do that just to keep the Pats from having a Pro Bowl CB making 550K for the next 2 years.

For you its really no lose. You get a pro bowl or close CB for peanuts at a pretty low price even if you do lose your 1st rounder. Thats pretty the "Downside" for the bidding team.

Its like the old joke about asking to sleep with a woman for a dollar and getting slapped. Then asking if she will do it for a million.

The key is "how high do you make the Patriots go" so they will match and now "Pay more for something they already bought".
 

Red Averages

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If I understand.....

If I was another team and I make a sizeable but limited offer just to mess with the Patriots. Say 4 years 28 million.

Wouldnt that force the Pats to either Match the 4/28 (which they could do no problem) or take my 1st.

IMHO I think they rather have Butler so they match.

I think you do that just to keep the Pats from having a Pro Bowl CB making 550K for the next 2 years.

For you its really no lose. You get a pro bowl or close CB for peanuts at a pretty low price even if you do lose your 1st rounder. Thats pretty the "Downside" for the bidding team.

Its like the old joke about asking to sleep with a woman for a dollar and getting slapped. Then asking if she will do it for a million.

The key is "how high do you make the Patriots go" so they will match and now "Pay more for something they already bought".
Well for one Butler is getting $3.91mm because of the 1st round tender. Secondly, you run the risk of pissing off other executives/owners if you go around bumping up players salaries by offering contracts you know teams will match.
 

steveluck7

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If a team offers him 4 / $28m, I think BB laughs and jumps at the opportunity to lock up Butler for 4 years at $7 million per.

The Patriots do not have him at $550 k for the next 2 years. They've tendered him so, at the very least, he'll be making ~ $4mil this year and he's UFA after this season.

Making a 4 /$28m offer is kind of a favor to the Patriots
 

ZMart100

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I doubt Butler signs an offer sheet at 4/28. Maybe 4/48, but even that may be a little low.
 

Super Nomario

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If a team offers him 4 / $28m, I think BB laughs and jumps at the opportunity to lock up Butler for 4 years at $7 million per.

Making a 4 /$28m offer is kind of a favor to the Patriots
Only if Butler accepted it, which he obviously would not.

I don't see a team paying a first round pick and big-time money for Butler instead of drafting a guy and getting him cheap.
 

shoosh77

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Well for one Butler is getting $3.91mm because of the 1st round tender. Secondly, you run the risk of pissing off other executives/owners if you go around bumping up players salaries by offering contracts you know teams will match.
This also assumes Butler would sign that deal. Is the whole $28mm guaranteed?
 

bakahump

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Thanks. I was not aware that the 1st round Tender already bumped his Salary up for the Pats.
 

TheoShmeo

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I realize that not many first round RFA have been signed by other teams.

But if you're a team with cap room and the need at corner, why not sign Butler to a high end of the market kind of deal? You either get one of the better corners in the NFL and hurt the Patriots in the process or force them to use perhaps more cap room than they would have liked to retain him. To a team like the Dolphins, that seems like a no lose situation.

I remain surprised that Bill has let Donta and Malcolm go this far. It's REALLY hard for me to question BB given his track record. But I'll admit to doing a little questioning now.
 

pedroia'sboys

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What am I missing with Terrelle Pryor
I haven't seen anything written about him.

Pats clearly looking for a receiver.
BB gushed over him before the browns game.
Lombardi said it was a big mistake letting him leave the building without a contract when he visited.
 

Stitch01

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The Patriots are going to have to give Butler something that looks like a high end of the market deal, franchise him, or he'll be gone in 2018. Giving the Patriots the choice to take a 1st round pick instead of matching an offer on Butler doesnt seem like a great way to spite them to me.

BB isnt above criticism or questioning, but I dont really understand it before the offseason even starts. He cant wave a wand and force Butler and Hightower to sign long-term deals, both are still pretty likely to be on the team next year, and if they both arent on the team is going to have lots of cap room and trading capital to work with in the six months before the next meaningful game is played.

Just to make one hypothetical example: if Hightower leaves and Butler signs an offer that the Pats dont match and they end up with Campbell, Bouye, and a 1st round pick for Butler instead would it be that bad of an outcome?
 

RIrooter09

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What am I missing with Terrelle Pryor
I haven't seen anything written about him.

Pats clearly looking for a receiver.
BB gushed over him before the browns game.
Lombardi said it was a big mistake letting him leave the building without a contract when he visited.
He wants over $10mm per year
 

TheoShmeo

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The Patriots are going to have to give Butler something that looks like a high end of the market deal, franchise him, or he'll be gone in 2018. Giving the Patriots the choice to take a 1st round pick instead of matching an offer on Butler doesnt seem like a great way to spite them to me.

BB isnt above criticism or questioning, but I dont really understand it before the offseason even starts. He cant wave a wand and force Butler and Hightower to sign long-term deals, both are still pretty likely to be on the team next year, and if they both arent on the team is going to have lots of cap room and trading capital to work with in the six months before the next meaningful game is played.

Just to make one hypothetical example: if Hightower leaves and Butler signs an offer that the Pats dont match and they end up with Campbell, Bouye, and a 1st round pick for Butler instead would it be that bad of an outcome?
I don't see it as spite. I see forcing the Pats to pay more than they would like OR adding a valuable piece and taking one away from a rival as a good strategic move.

You're reading criticism when it's really questioning. I come to the conversation with endless respect for Bill and well earned deference. At the same time, after dealing away Jones and Collins, and with all this cap space, I would have thought Bill would find a way to de-risk the situation with assets as proven and valuable as Hightower and Butler (never mind Branch).
 

Stitch01

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Jets did that with Revis in 2015. Older player, but it turned out to have some downside and that didnt even involve moving a 1st round pick.

If a team thinks trading a 1st rounder for market value Butler is a good move they should do it, but I dont see it as some sort of no downside move guaranteed to hurt a rival. Pats are going to have to give Butler something that looks like a market deal anyways a year from now, and a first round pick isnt a bad consolation prize.

Im sure the Pats would have signed Butler and/or Hightower by now if the price was right. Negotiations are a two way street and evaluating their own players is the place where BB gets the most deference IMO.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I realize that not many first round RFA have been signed by other teams.

But if you're a team with cap room and the need at corner, why not sign Butler to a high end of the market kind of deal? You either get one of the better corners in the NFL and hurt the Patriots in the process or force them to use perhaps more cap room than they would have liked to retain him. To a team like the Dolphins, that seems like a no lose situation.

I remain surprised that Bill has let Donta and Malcolm go this far. It's REALLY hard for me to question BB given his track record. But I'll admit to doing a little questioning now.
Why not sign Bouye or some other upper tier FA corner and keep your first round pick instead?

Giving up a first rounder for the right to sign a guy to a huge deal comparable to what he could attain in FA just doesn't make a lot of sense unless the player is so special that you couldn't find somebody reasonably comparable in the free agent market.
 

tims4wins

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Why not sign Bouye or some other upper tier FA corner and keep your first round pick instead?

Giving up a first rounder for the right to sign a guy to a huge deal comparable to what he could attain in FA just doesn't make a lot of sense unless the player is so special that you couldn't find somebody reasonably comparable in the free agent market.
Right, or put another way, you can wait a year until Butler is a UFA and then just sign him then instead and keep your first round pick. I would think that Butler in 2018 + 2017 first round pick is worth more than Butler in 2017 through whenever his contract would be up
 

Curt S Loew

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Right, or put another way, you can wait a year until Butler is a UFA and then just sign him then instead and keep your first round pick. I would think that Butler in 2018 + 2017 first round pick is worth more than Butler in 2017 through whenever his contract would be up
Unless he's locked up before then. This is why the rules are what they are. You need to pay a significant price if you want him now.
 

tims4wins

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Unless he's locked up before then. This is why the rules are what they are. You need to pay a significant price if you want him now.
Right but it doesn't sound like the Pats are going to extend him any time soon. And I highly doubt they will franchise him next year.
 

lexrageorge

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I realize that not many first round RFA have been signed by other teams.

But if you're a team with cap room and the need at corner, why not sign Butler to a high end of the market kind of deal? You either get one of the better corners in the NFL and hurt the Patriots in the process or force them to use perhaps more cap room than they would have liked to retain him. To a team like the Dolphins, that seems like a no lose situation.

I remain surprised that Bill has let Donta and Malcolm go this far. It's REALLY hard for me to question BB given his track record. But I'll admit to doing a little questioning now.
There was no expectation that these situations would play out any differently.

Hightower is going for what is likely to be his first, last, and only chance at a big contract with guaranteed coin. And, as much as the Pats would love to have him back, and as much as Donta apparently wants to return, money talks. And as good as Hightower is, he's not exactly the generational LB that you back up the Brinks truck for a-la Von Miller. If some other team wants to do that, then Bill is right to let them do that.

As for Butler, he's definitely in a unique position. As an RFA, his leverage is limited. At the same time, he could play for the $4M this year, and play for the franchise tag equivalent in 2018. So he has little incentive to accept a big discount from the Pats or anyone else. From the Pats perspective, it's best to wait until the rest of the free agent market shakes out, both in terms of other team's UFA's and their own, before working on a long term contract for Butler. That approach would be typical of how they've operated in the past. There is certainly the risk that the Pats hand could be forced. But, as noted, you would need a team with a draft pick outside the top 10 to offer Butler enough guaranteed money for him the sign the offer sheet. And if it's enough money that it makes the Pats cap situation uncomfortable, it means the signing team is also dedicating a big chunk of cap resources to one player, and losing a first round pick to boot. Which is why the probability of this happening is not huge. The Dolphins defense is also aging a bit; bringing in a 27 y/o on a 5 year deal while sacrificing a first round pick is not the best way to get younger.
 

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BigJimEd

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There was no expectation that these situations would play out any differently.
As others have pointed out it takes two to sign on the dotted line.

With Hightower the Pays could have used the tag. That might have made it almost certain that he'd be back next year. It also might have lessened the chance he'd be in Foxboro long term.
Now both sides can see what the actual market for Hightower is. It is risk for sure but it could help also help them agree.


Butler is in a different situation. The x factor there is how much teams value the pick. Assuming the contract offer is lower than he would be if he was a UFA, will it still be enough that the Patriots won't match.
I think that's why some teams stay away from RFAs. They don't want to set the market for the current team to match. You need to out bid and give up a pick.

Still wouldn't surprise me to see a team take a look at Butler. Probably after Bouye is off the market. Plenty of teams with money to spend this off season. Patriots have plenty as well so hopefully any offer isn't too high for the Pats match.
 

ZMart100

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It's probably in both Butler's interest and the team's to see what the market for Butler truly is. I am not worried that there is neither a deal nor talk of a deal being close yet. See what the interest level in Butler is. See what other CBs on the market are getting and asking for, then make a decision.
 

djbayko

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It's probably in both Butler's interest and the team's to see what the market for Butler truly is. I am not worried that there is neither a deal nor talk of a deal being close yet. See what the interest level in Butler is. See what other CBs on the market are getting and asking for, then make a decision.
I'm trying to think of how this is possible. In theory, doesn't one side inevitably get the better of that gamble?

Unless you're taking external forces into account, I suppose, such as what players might become available via trade and what teams might suddenly require defensive help. It's possible that both sides end up better off in the end with more information, but that is unknowable in advance.
 

Red Averages

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Think of it like a hard to value asset. One side thinks it's worth X and the other Y, generally a wide difference in the two with little motivation or proof that either side is correct. Once that value is easier to value (either through other teams offers for similar assets or the same asset) it's a much more fluid process to close the gap. Both sides benefit as it improves the odds of a deal getting done rather than stalemate from the added information on the asset.

Of course that is if both sides want a long term deal in place...
 

j-man

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Cooks is exactly the guy I want them targeting. I'd give up second round value for two seasons of Cooks at below market value.

If they're rebuilding, any chance Jimmy is on their radar? They could flip Brees to Denver or something.

i wouild LOVE Brees but no shot loves NO and will want at least 18 mil a season
 

djbayko

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Think of it like a hard to value asset. One side thinks it's worth X and the other Y, generally a wide difference in the two with little motivation or proof that either side is correct. Once that value is easier to value (either through other teams offers for similar assets or the same asset) it's a much more fluid process to close the gap. Both sides benefit as it improves the odds of a deal getting done rather than stalemate from the added information on the asset.

Of course that is if both sides want a long term deal in place...
Okay, maybe it's semantics then. Because your description fits the intention of my original post perfectly. The sides are far apart and one side is usually proven "right" (or perhaps more right than the other).
 

Reverend

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Think of it like a hard to value asset. One side thinks it's worth X and the other Y, generally a wide difference in the two with little motivation or proof that either side is correct. Once that value is easier to value (either through other teams offers for similar assets or the same asset) it's a much more fluid process to close the gap. Both sides benefit as it improves the odds of a deal getting done rather than stalemate from the added information on the asset.

Of course that is if both sides want a long term deal in place...
This is a pretty huge caveat.
 

Reverend

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Then I would put forth there isn't one.

That is literally begging the question. Like, if people knew what it meant and used the expression correctly.