2017 Playoff Position Thread

Blue Monkey · Nov 27, 2017

I know the Eagles look unbeatable right now but don’t sleep on the Vikings. I think they would have a decent shot to beat Philly. Not hoping for that by any means as it would be a home super bowl game for them. It would drive the ticket prices through the roof and as a Pats fan in MN that would be less than ideal.

BaseballJones · Nov 27, 2017

It's amazing how things have changed. Four games into the season...

- Buffalo led the AFCE at 3-1.
- NE was at 2-2, having lost two home games, one in blowout fashion to the Chiefs, and the other to Carolina, who had not been playing well offensively up til then.
- KC was 4-0, having beaten NE and Philly convincingly, and who had also beaten the Chargers on the road.
- Meanwhile the Chargers were 0-4. And Denver was 3-1.

Now, Buffalo is 6-5. New England is 9-2 and dominating. KC is 6-5 having lost 5 of their last 7. The Chargers are 5-6 and right on the heels of the Chiefs. Denver has lost 7 straight.

It's crazy. And a reminder that what happens in September doesn't necessarily determine your whole season.

m0ckduck · Nov 27, 2017

BaseballJones said:
It's crazy. And a reminder that what happens in September doesn't necessarily determine your whole season.

It would be interesting to know at which week in an average NFL season do the current year's standings actually become more predictive of final record than the previous year's final standings.

j44thor · Nov 27, 2017

This has to be the deepest the NFC has been in quite some time. 1-6 are all very capable of going to the dance and winning. Certainly much stronger than the AFC 3-6.

tims4wins · Nov 27, 2017

I've been saying it for a few years, but September is the new preseason. It matters in that the games count and the record counts, but you have to throw out the performance. It literally has not mattered at all for the 2014, 2016, or 2017 Patriots.

BaseballJones · Nov 27, 2017

tims4wins said:
I've been saying it for a few years, but September is the new preseason. It matters in that the games count and the record counts, but you have to throw out the performance. It literally has not mattered at all for the 2014, 2016, or 2017 Patriots.

You're right in that it doesn't matter when trying to determine how good a team will be. But it does matter in that a loss in September might very well cost you HFA in the playoffs, which might end up costing you a chance at a Super Bowl championship.

tims4wins · Nov 27, 2017

BaseballJones said:
You're right in that it doesn't matter when trying to determine how good a team will be. But it does matter in that a loss in September might very well cost you HFA in the playoffs, which might end up costing you a chance at a Super Bowl championship.

Absolutely, no argument here.

RedOctober3829 · Nov 27, 2017

The Philly/Seattle game on SNF this week is going to be a great game. This is going to be a real test to see how good Philly really is.

Boston Brawler · Nov 27, 2017

RedOctober3829 said:
The Philly/Seattle game on SNF this week is going to be a great game. This is going to be a real test to see how good Philly really is.

I think it'll be a great game too, but is it really going to be a test? Seattle has lost to Atlanta and Washington at home this month, the defense is pretty depleted, and their offense is basically Russell Wilson.

Philly is clicking, but I guess the schedule has been relatively easy for them. Other than Carolina and the Chiefs, they haven't faced good teams. I still don't think this Seattle team is as big a test as their game @LAR on 10 Dec.

RedOctober3829 · Nov 27, 2017

Boston Brawler said:
I think it'll be a great game too, but is it really going to be a test? Seattle has lost to Atlanta and Washington at home this month, the defense is pretty depleted, and their offense is basically Russell Wilson.

Philly is clicking, but I guess the schedule has been relatively easy for them. Other than Carolina and the Chiefs, they haven't faced good teams. I still don't think this Seattle team is as big a test as their game @LAR on 10 Dec.

In terms of going into a hostile environment against a quality opponent, it will be a good test. They went into a tough crowd at KC and lost. Since then, they've played at Washington, LAC, Carolina, and Dallas. None of those places can be considered that tough to win in. Yes, the Seahawks have not been as great at home this year but they'll certainly be up for this game.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Nov 27, 2017

Ravens somehow would be in wild card if they win tonight. Plus they have a pretty favorable schedule other than @ PIT.

Buck Showalter · Nov 27, 2017

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Ravens somehow would be in wild card if they win tonight. Plus they have a pretty favorable schedule other than @ PIT.

And they would actually scare me a little in the playoffs.

It's simply a franchise / coach (one of the few) that doesn't fear the hoodie.

Toe Nash · Nov 27, 2017

We heard that a million times before the game a year ago, and that one was never particularly close.

The Ravens play us well because they've generally been a good team with a good to great defense, a good offensive line and good coaching. They can usually pressure Brady, especially up the middle, make tackles, and cover receivers, get a few deep plays on offense and they have an all-time kicker. But this (and last) year they look to me to be pretty average. They have dominated some bad teams but they don't have any impressive wins.

"Fear" or lack thereof of the Patriots has nothing to do with it. DeShaun Watson should have been scared of the Patriots but he was great. KC should have been scared and turtled after their rookie RB fumbled on his first NFL touch. Etc., etc.

If Baltimore sneaks into the playoffs by virtue of beating up on the Bengals and Browns, and getting Green Bay, Houston, Indy and Miami without their top QB, I say, bring them on.

loshjott · Nov 27, 2017

They'd have to win on the road first to get to Foxboro. Sure, likely against Jax, Titans, or the flotsam that emerges from the AFC West, but still....

dbn · Nov 27, 2017

m0ckduck said:
It would be interesting to know at which week in an average NFL season do the current year's standings actually become more predictive of final record than the previous year's final standings.

Neat idea. I just did it for the 2015 to the 2016 seasons, and was surprised at first at how early it was. The RMS team-by-team win totals difference from '15-'16 was 3.8. The RMS using the teams' current winning %, game-by-game (n.b., not week-by-week), compare to their final win % was 7.3 after games 1, 5.4 after games 2, 4.1 after games 3, 3.7 after games 4. So the answer for those consecutive seasons was game 4 is the break-even point.

Here are how the RMS using current win %s change over the course of the season:
1 7.29
2 5.38
3 4.13
4 3.72
5 2.96
6 2.23
7 1.66
8 1.48
9 1.57
10 1.36
11 1.15
12 1.07
13 0.83
14 0.68
15 0.45
16 0.00

The thing is, the games already played count both towards the current winning % and the total winning % for that season. I guess I could calculate how well a current winning % predicts only future winning % for the rest of the season, but I'm not sure how useful that is in a season that is only 16 games.

dbn · Nov 27, 2017

Actually, here is a quick-and-easy if not entirely satisfying substitute for calculating directly how well a current win % predicts win % the rest of the way. I simply multiplied the above deviations by 16 and divided the result by the number of games remaining. I'm not sure exactly how to interpret the numbers, but it kind of gives an idea of how well you can predict a teams record, but graded on a curve.

1 7.776
2 6.14857
3 5.08308
4 4.96
5 4.30545
6 3.568
7 2.95111
8 2.96
9 3.58857
10 3.62667
11 3.68
12 4.28
13 4.42667
14 5.44
15 7.2

Seems after games 7 or 8 is the sweet spot.

BusRaker · Nov 27, 2017

How about the correlation between the winners and losers each week as opposed to their overall record at the end of the year ... for example (I don't have NFL in my database)

Week 1 Winners: .567 for season
Week 1 Losers .433 for season
....
Week 15 Winners: .639 for season
Week 15 Losers: .361 for season

Week 16 and 17 might be skewed with teams having less than the playoffs to play for, or are locked into their seed.

dbn · Nov 27, 2017

BusRaker said:
How about the correlation between the winners and losers each week as opposed to their overall record at the end of the year ... for example (I don't have NFL in my database)

Week 1 Winners: .567 for season
Week 1 Losers .433 for season
....
Week 15 Winners: .639 for season
Week 15 Losers: .361 for season

Week 16 and 17 might be skewed with teams having less than the playoffs to play for, or are locked into their seed.

Not much to see. The percentages vary little week-to-week, with no correlation. Winners have a typical end-of-season winning % of 0.575 and therefore losers of 0.425.

DJnVa · Nov 27, 2017

dbn said:
Actually, here is a quick-and-easy if not entirely satisfying substitute for calculating directly how well a current win % predicts win % the rest of the way. I simply multiplied the above deviations by 16 and divided the result by the number of games remaining. I'm not sure exactly how to interpret the numbers, but it kind of gives an idea of how well you can predict a teams record, but graded on a curve.

1 7.776
2 6.14857
3 5.08308
4 4.96
5 4.30545
6 3.568
7 2.95111
8 2.96
9 3.58857
10 3.62667
11 3.68
12 4.28
13 4.42667
14 5.44
15 7.2

Seems after games 7 or 8 is the sweet spot.

Bring this to the survivor pool thread next season.

Boston Brawler · Dec 4, 2017

RedOctober3829 said:
In terms of going into a hostile environment against a quality opponent, it will be a good test. They went into a tough crowd at KC and lost. Since then, they've played at Washington, LAC, Carolina, and Dallas. None of those places can be considered that tough to win in. Yes, the Seahawks have not been as great at home this year but they'll certainly be up for this game.

I can certainly say I was wrong here. Kudos.

DJnVa · Dec 5, 2017

If Shazier is out for a few weeks that's really going to be a blow to the Steelers defense. What's their depth like at that position?

DeadlySplitter · Dec 5, 2017

it's nice that both TEN/JAX will get a taste of the playoffs this year, barring a shocker.

RedOctober3829 · Dec 5, 2017

DrewDawg said:
If Shazier is out for a few weeks that's really going to be a blow to the Steelers defense. What's their depth like at that position?

Not good since his backup Tyler Matakevitch got hurt last night too. They signed Sean Spence today off the street. The Patriots should shred this defense next week.

johnmd20 · Dec 5, 2017

RedOctober3829 said:
Not good since his backup Tyler Matakevitch got hurt last night too. They signed Sean Spence today off the street. The Patriots should shred this defense next week.

Pitt is actively going to try to injure Brady.

KiltedFool · Dec 5, 2017

They're down Haden and Mitchell in the defensive backfield, and two of the four inside linebackers on the roster were hurt last night. Shazier is an impact player, his backup not as much, and even that guy is hurt. The absence of Mitchell hasnt been looked at nearly as much as Haden.

WV Sox Fan · Dec 5, 2017

Add on the suspension of JJSS if it stands and Baltimore is looking like a much tougher win for Pittsburgh. Edit: because I’m a knucklehead.

E5 Yaz · Dec 5, 2017

WV Sox Fan said:
Add on the suspensions of JJSS and Iloka (if they stand) and Baltimore is looking like a much tougher win for Pittsburgh.

Why would the suspension of a Cincinnati player make it tougher for Pittsburgh to beat Baltimore?

Cousin Walter · Dec 5, 2017

WV Sox Fan said:
Add on the suspensions of JJSS and Iloka (if they stand) and Baltimore is looking like a much tougher win for Pittsburgh.

Iloka plays for the Bengals.

Section15Box113 · Dec 5, 2017

Cousin Walter said:
Iloka plays for the Bengals.

You’ll have to talk to the Bengals.
/Jimy

DennyDoyle'sBoil · Dec 5, 2017

It looks to me as though the most significant issue for the Patriots and the post season other than the Steelers game is the Jaguars.

The Patriots would clinch the first-round bye with two wins against any of their four remaining opponents unless the Jags were to win out. In that case, the Patriots would need three wins. (If the Jags win out and the Patriots go 2-2 in their remaining games then the Jags would take the tie breaker by virtue of a better conference record.)

Monday's game seems like a big deal to me. No Gronk. Without Hogan that starts to look a little bit scary in terms of the offense having a hole that is tougher to plug. Hopefully he comes back. The Dolphins found some rhythm last week and it's not exactly like we're dynamite down there, plus prime time can distort things in terms of opponent intensity. Jags are good. Their schedule is tough and they are a longshot for a bye, but the Patriots need to take care of business without Gronk Monday or they could be looking at needing to win out after that to control their own destiny.

Ed Hillel · Dec 5, 2017

The Jags have Seattle and @Tenn remaining, I wouldn’t be super concerned about them winning out. They are probably 10% or so to do so.

Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt · Dec 5, 2017

Is it definite that Haden will be out for the December 17 tilt with the Pats?

Kenny F'ing Powers · Dec 6, 2017

Below our DVOA Bowl participants, the DVOA ranks stay mostly the same, but the ratings themselves do not. Pittsburgh may still be No. 4 and New England may still be No. 7, but the Steelers dropped 2.8% when they barely beat Cincinnati while New England improved 2.8% by easily dismissing Buffalo. The difference is even bigger in weighted DVOA, where that Week 1 loss to Kansas City is now long ago for the Patriots. New England has passed the Steelers, No. 4 in weighted DVOA with the Steelers one spot behind. The difference between the teams is enough to make the Patriots our new Super Bowl favorites. With so much less competition in the AFC for that trip to Minneapolis, whichever team is favored to win the AFC is going to have the best Super Bowl odds. For the first time since early September, that's New England again.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/week-13-dvoa-ratings

NYCSox · Dec 6, 2017

KiltedFool said:
They're down Haden and Mitchell in the defensive backfield, and two of the four inside linebackers on the roster were hurt last night. Shazier is an impact player, his backup not as much, and even that guy is hurt. The absence of Mitchell hasnt been looked at nearly as much as Haden.

Yes. Ever since Haden got hurt they have been exposed to at least one or two long pass plays every game. As long as Haden and Shazier (hopefully) return for the playoffs they'll be fine. But it will be a huge hill to get the #1 seed.

wilked · Dec 7, 2017

What's the best case of Pats getting #1 seed with a Steelers loss...

Steelers (10-3) lose to Ravens, Pats (11-2) beat Miami.
Steelers (11-3) beat Pats (11-3)
Steelers (11-4) lose to Texans, Pats (12-3) beat Bills
Steelers (12-4) beat Browns, Pats (13-3) beat Jets

Steelers just aren't losing to Browns last game of the season, so you rely on them losing to Ravens and Texans.

They are a 5 point favorite this week (~67% chance of winning). They are @HOU, should be in the same neighborhood I think. Add it up and I think you are talking about 10% chance or so of them dropping both.

All of which is to say what we already know... winner of that H2H gets HFA with at least 90% probability

dcmissle · Dec 7, 2017

Yup. The ship sailed on the alt route with the Bengals failing to keep things together, after a couple of other teams did the same in recent weeks vs the Steelers. Baltimore winning in Pittsburgh is more than plausible. Pittsburgh losing to the Texans after beating the Pats is not plausible, IMO.

Rudy's Curve · Dec 7, 2017

The Steelers lost to the 4-10 Ryan Mallett Ravens two years ago to lose control of their playoff destiny and only got it back when the Jets lost to the Bills the last week. Combine that with needing huge comebacks to beat the Bengals and Colts while barely getting by the Packers (and their general recent history of playing down to competition), and it's entirely possible they could lay an egg in Houston.

wilked · Dec 7, 2017

Rudy's Curve said:
The Steelers lost to the 4-10 Ryan Mallett Ravens two years ago to lose control of their playoff destiny and only got it back when the Jets lost to the Bills the last week. Combine that with needing huge comebacks to beat the Bengals and Colts while barely getting by the Packers (and their general recent history of playing down to competition), and it's entirely possible they could lay an egg in Houston.

I think each is possible, but the combo (Ravens and Texans winning) in the 10% range

Royal Reader · Dec 7, 2017

Can't wait for the narrow Steelers win (a field goal or less), month of talk about the Steelers, then TB12 handing out an all time asskicking on the same field in the AFCCG.

DJnVa · Dec 7, 2017

You guys go ahead and talk about a loss then a revenge win over Pittsburgh and all just think about beating them twice.

tims4wins · Dec 7, 2017

DrewDawg said:
You guys go ahead and talk about a loss then a revenge win over Pittsburgh and all just think about beating them twice.

Seriously. How will the Steelers react if the Pats put down a 31-13 type beat down next weekend

koufax32 · Dec 7, 2017

DrewDawg said:
You guys go ahead and talk about a loss then a revenge win over Pittsburgh and all just think about beating them twice.

I’ve said it elsewhere but since PIT has focused on next week so much and basically said that all their SB hopes depend on HFA that if NE can beat them, they’re done. From a mental standpoint, any potential playoff matchup is already over.

I say we Sun Tzu the fire out of them and take that two-for-one offer.

RedOctober3829 · Dec 7, 2017

koufax32 said:
I’ve said it elsewhere but since PIT has focused on next week so much and basically said that all their SB hopes depend on HFA that if NE can beat them, they’re done. From a mental standpoint, any potential playoff matchup is already over.

I say we Sun Tzu the fire out of them and take that two-for-one offer.

Everyone’s talking about 2 matchups. I’m waiting for the Jacksonville-New England AFCCG.

snowmanny · Dec 7, 2017

We haven't had one of those in twenty years.

PC Drunken Friar · Dec 7, 2017

Kenny F'ing Powers said:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/week-13-dvoa-ratings

I don't understand how I should take DVOA seriously... The Patriots have let up an average of 11.8 points a game the last 9 weeks (best in the NFL) and have climbed from 31st in the league in D to... 29th.

Is this the same metric that said Jae Crowder was the 10th best player in the NBA last year?

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