2017 Raiders: Vegas baby, Vegas!!!

[Gunfighter 09]

If the NFC East continues to look as mediocre as they have so far, I think 3 AFC West teams getting in is pretty likely. I wouldn't be surprised if the three AFC West teams win 3 of 4 against their NFC opponents. This is especially impactful since the AFC East should be at least 3 wins for each of the Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos. Those six wins, combined with splitting in the division and winning at least one of the other AFC games gets the AFC West teams to 10 wins each and at least 7 conference wins.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

This is probably $2-3M less than 26 year old Gabe would have gotten on the open market next spring, but is no bargain.

I like it, though it is an interesting strategy of the Raiders to tie up so much cap in the interior offensive line with Osemele, Hudson and Jackson. Hudson's deal has scaled way back from the balloon payments on the first year, and Osemele's deal will do the same after next year, but they will have around $29M of cap tied up in the interior offensive line in both 18 &19. I think their hope is that by paying tackle whisperer OL coach Mike Tice, they can man the tackle positions effectively on the cheap. They also play with an extra tackle more than any team in the league, so perhaps the prioritization of the G/C positions is tactics based as well. Of note, they let T Menelik Watson go to Denver for around $5.5M per year, half of what they are paying Jackson.

And I was dead wrong here. Reggie is not trying to man the tackle position on the cheap, though he did draft two Tackles this year. He just paid Donald Penn $21 for 18 & 19, taking the Raiders to over $40M committed to the offensive line in those seasons. Considering how shitty offensive line play has been across the league this year, this seems like a smart use of resources.



[URL]http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2733101-donald-penn-raiders-reportedly-agree-to-2-year-21-million-contract[/URL]

 

[InstaFace]

It's good to have the old Raiders back...

Raiders DT Donald Penn confronts fans in parking lot after loss to Baltimore.

(he claims the fan threw a bottle at his car, and seems to have been the more mature one in this incident by a good distance, but still...)

 

[EvilEmpire]

Great win last night against the Chiefs. Fun and frustration in almost equal parts, but the result was good, so no need to vent about dropped balls and questionable officiating.

Of more interest to me right now is exactly what the hell is going on with Marshawn Lynch?

http://www.espn.com/blog/oakland-raiders/post/_/id/19866/even-with-feel-good-win-raiders-have-a-marshawn-lynch-dilemma

The question? Who, exactly, was Marshawn Lynch running on to the field to protect when a skirmish broke out in the wake of Raiders quarterback Derek Carr getting blasted by Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters in the second quarter? It was a hit that drew not only a flag, but the wrath of Raiders offensive linemen Donald Penn and Kelechi Osemele.

If it was Peters, Lynch's close friend from Oakland, then there are issues that a team meeting may not be able to resolve. Especially not with Lynch reportedly leaving Oakland Coliseum before halftime.

What a strange game.

 

[Marciano490]

Peters isn't just a close friend; they're cousins.

 

[jmm57]

I didnt know the connection last night, but it looks like Lynch helped him out in High School and then while Peters was at Washington he was basically living in Marshawn's house.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

Great win last night against the Chiefs. Fun and frustration in almost equal parts, but the result was good, so no need to vent about dropped balls and questionable officiating.

Of more interest to me right now is exactly what the hell is going on with Marshawn Lynch?

http://www.espn.com/blog/oakland-raiders/post/_/id/19866/even-with-feel-good-win-raiders-have-a-marshawn-lynch-dilemma



What a strange game.

The Raiders relationship with Lynch is interesting. They clearly have minimal control over his actions, but both parties are benefitting from the relationship. It is hard to capture just how beloved Beast Mode is in the local community, and Raiders need that right now with the move coming and the team being slightly worse performance wise and much less lucky than last year. The number of Lynch jerseys from Cal or high school that you see in the stands is quite noticeable at Raider home games. The town loves him, especially when he does silly shit like ride BART home after last night's game.


The other interesting aspect is the team's business relationship with Lynch. It is startling when you go into a Raider Image store or on the website store and see how many of Lynch's Beast Mode brand items they are selling in prominent places in the store. He is clearly making a significant amount of coin from the arrangement.

In the field, I don't see how you maximize the value of Lynch giving him the ball 10-12 times a game. They don't have the defense or offensive commitment to the running game to get him the 20+ carries a game that maximizes the effect he has on a defense. He has also regressed as a receiver and route runner, so he is a bit of a square peg in the offense. Perhaps later in the season when they have cold weather games in KC and Philly the Lynch experiment will be more than a marketing success, but that is all it is at this point.

 

[InstaFace]

Great post, GF. Had no idea the extent to which a rostered player could be such a marketing impact without also being a longtime team fixture or star on the field. I just figured all teams shared in merchandising at the NFL level, the way they do for TV revenue.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

Great Bay Area writer Marcus Thompson captures it better than I can:

https://theathletic.com/132870/2017/10/20/thompson-this-too-is-part-of-the-raiders-marshawn-lynch-experience/


“Like roses with the divorce papers” is a great line that sums it up perfectly.

 

[The Needler]

Great Bay Area writer Marcus Thompson captures it better than I can:

https://theathletic.com/132870/2017/10/20/thompson-this-too-is-part-of-the-raiders-marshawn-lynch-experience/


“Like roses with the divorce papers” is a great line that sums it up perfectly.

Subscription only content.

 

[Bowhemian]

One thing is for sure, Marshawn Lynch is one interesting dude.

 

[EvilEmpire]

I'm glad to hear that Peters is Lynch's cousin. I also like that Lynch is even more a man of the people in Oakland than I thought. Thanks for posting that Marciano, Gunfighter.

 

[Boston Brawler]

Marshawn suspended one game

 

[j-man]

the raiders look like a 9-7 team to be fair so does denver unless denver wins sunday the AFC east couild get 3 teams in the playoffs NE Buff and the NYJ/MIA week 7 winner

 

[Gunfighter 09]

The AFC East plays the AFC West this year. If either division gets 3 playoff teams they will have done it at the expense of the other. So far they are split 2-2:
Chefs over Pats
Bills over Broncos
Phins over Chargers
Raiders over Jets

 

[RedOctober3829]

Sources: The #Raiders have fired defensive coordinator Ken Norton, per @MikeSilver and me. Big change.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

another team broken by the Pats. Denver fired their OC as well

 

[j-man]

the loser might be in better shape for a 2018 rebound
because the 3rd place AFC West team has to play Hou while the 4th gets INDY

 

[j-man]

another team broken by the Pats. Denver fired their OC as well

the giants broke us win that game and denver is 5-5 or 6-4 that loss was inexuble

 

[54thMA]

the giants broke us win that game and denver is 5-5 or 6-4 that loss was inexuble

Well try to look on the bright side J-Man; at least Denver didn't lose two Super Bowls to these assholes..............hope you are well, take care.

 

[loshjott]

Well try to look on the bright side J-Man; at least Denver didn't lose two Super Bowls to these assholes..............hope you are well, take care.

They did lose one....back in 1987.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

The defense looked better yesterday, even though it was against the Donks and Paxton Lynch, so certainly not a good barometer.

More important than the results (for analysis sake) is they used more creative blitzing (I can't remember the last time I saw a zone blitz from the Raiders before yesterday), stunting with the front 4/5, a tighter coverage with the secondary. Given that KC has fallen off the cliff, the Raiders can still make a run at this division if their defense improves under Pagano.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

Double Post

 

[j-man]

Well try to look on the bright side J-Man; at least Denver didn't lose two Super Bowls to these assholes..............hope you are well, take care.

lost 3 to the NFC East the 86 loss did hurt had phil simmis not had the game of his life denver wins by 10 hell denver almost won in NY that season but george martin made a unbealive play for a pick 6
denver blew that first haif shouild have had at least 10 more pt and a 20-7 HT lead
1 the refs missed a 1st down catch by TE C Kay that even madden and summall said was a catch that wouild had stopped the NYG Saf and i think denver wouild had got a fg

2 karles denver K had a awful game missing 2 easy fg's

 

[j-man]

The defense looked better yesterday, even though it was against the Donks and Paxton Lynch, so certainly not a good barometer.

More important than the results (for analysis sake) is they used more creative blitzing (I can't remember the last time I saw a zone blitz from the Raiders before yesterday), stunting with the front 4/5, a tighter coverage with the secondary. Given that KC has fallen off the cliff, the Raiders can still make a run at this division if their defense improves under Pagano.

the raiders will lose to philly and etiher dal or @kc

had the raiders won 24-7 or 21-7 then maybe but allowing a late denver td and 1 play away from denver getting the ball back to go for the tie had tailb not lost his mind in the first q denver had a 50/50 shot

what happhed was i overrated denver esp at qb and def
every break denver got in 2015 they are playing for this season denver is more like a 7-9 8-8 team that will be 4-12 5-11

the reason denver will improve next year
-16 in to
hopefully a josh rosen or a josh mccown teddy bridgwater at qb
haveing pittburgh at home as pitt always play down to comp
getting 2 OL Starters plus a good WR is a must
fixing the MLB Convge and getting CB that can play zone too is a must
with the weakness of the afc someone is going to go from 4-12 to 9-7 next year

this broncos team reminds me of 1999 a littie

u can laugh and doubt but with better QB Play ol play and inside pass rush
a easyler sch pitt sea lar all at home no pats assiuming denver goes 0-8 on the road next year mission will be relearning how to win road games and hopeing for a 3-5 4-4 road rec

 

[Gunfighter 09]

They made it back to .500 and tied for first in the division after winning 3 of 4. Of course they did it beating three of the worst teams in football in Miami, Denver and the Giants, playing back up QBs in two of those games, all sandwiched around the bye and getting hammered by the Patriots.

Derek Carr and the offensive line look much better lately and the defense has been something approaching nearly competent over the last two weeks after promoting John Pagano and firing Ken Norton Jr. I think Carr is getting back to health after the back injury and the running game has improved recently as well. They get Michael Crabtree back against KC this week, and might get Amari Cooper back as well. That will give them an entirely healthy offense, which is rare this time of year.

They have the toughest remaining schedule of the three 6-6 AFC West teams:

-@ KC
- Dallas (No Zeke) on SNF
-@ Philly on MNF Christmas night
- A home game in LA against the Chargers.

It boils down to this for the Raiders: Win the two division games, and all they have to do is split with the two NFC East teams. I think the most likely scenario is 2-2 and that probably won't get it done, or at best case, would set up a winner take all showdown with the Bolts in week 17.

 

[Marciano490]

Also seems Lynch is running better lately. At least according to the stat sheet and highlight reels.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

Reading the DVOA rankings today, the story of the Raider's season can be summed up by their DVOA rankings, and they are 21st overall / 19th weighted:

Offense: 9th, despite an EJ Manuel start, Carr recovering from a broken back, and the second most drops in the league.

Defense: 32nd, and they are so bad that the 31st ranked team is closer to the 25th ranked team than they are to the Raiders. How a team with Khalil Mack could be this bad on defense is beyond my comprehension.

ST is 13th, which sounds about right a team with competent coverage, a decent kicker and the greatest punter to ever live.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

It is amazing how Derek Carr finds new and spectacular ways to suck in Arrowhead every year. They got exactly the defensive effort they needed to win this game and watched the offense absolutely lay an egg of bad protection, dropped passes, terrible quarterback play and ridiculously bad play calling.

Season over.

They are now playing for coaches' jobs. An interesting question is whether or not losing out would get Del Rio fired after one year of a new four year deal and one season after winning 12 games. I don't think Mark Davis has the cash to pay DelRio an $4-5M per on top of another coach over the next three years.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

The one coaching move they have to make is dumping Downing. He's been horrible. What's with all of the 3-5 yard outs and hitches?

I'm not sure what JDR's strengths are as a coach at this point. Clearly he's not an X and O's guy. He's a solid game manager and perhaps a good leader of players, but he absolutely needs quality coordinators to cover his weakness, yet he stuck with Norton for over two years, and now his choice of Downing over Musgrave is equally damning. Downing will probably be gone, but does it matter if Del Rio will be back and choosing Downing's replacement?

 

[Hoya81]

Schefter and Mort are saying that Mark Davis may offer an ownership stake try and pull Gruden back into coaching.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21921030/oakland-raiders-preparing-pursue-jon-gruden-possibly-offer-ownership-stake

 

[Old Fart Tree]

If I'm Gruden I take that deal in a cocaine heartbeat.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

About to be an interesting city to play in, solid young qb in need of coaching, Mack, some skill player talent. Pretty good opportunity if you trust ownership...which is the big if

 

[dcmissle]

That piece raises an interesting point I had never considered. HC compensation, though healthy, has remained essentially capped. It has not risen with revenues, the cap, player salaries.

 

[EvilEmpire]

I like Chucky. Good situation for him. I hope it happens. I don't think Davis the Younger would be a bad guy to work for.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

Would make things really uncomfortable in the building if the coaching arrangement ends on a sour note while he doesn’t go anywhere as far as being a minority owner.

 

[dcmissle]

I like him too, think he’s a good coach, and would prefer him in the NFC. QB is good and on a good contract; the front office has done good work in recent years building the team.

It doesn’t take much to connect the dots — heavy rumors re Tampa, rumors re Chucky reaching out to potential staff, Tampa gives Koetter assurance re next year, rumors re Raiders heat up. It would appear Raiders won bidding war.

 

[dynomite]

I had totally forgotten that Gruden was 39 (!) when he won the 2002 Super Bowl with the Bucs. That’s crazy.

In any event, he’s only in his mid-50s now. He could easily coach for a few years and then retire into the owner’s box and front office oversight.

But I don’t totally get why Gruden would want to be a head coach at this point. He has a seemingly great gig at ESPN, good relationships around the league, and a Super Bowl ring in a box at home. Does he really want to go back to the grind and intense pressure of leading a team in the NFL?

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

He's been out of coaching for the better part of a decade, and even though I'm sure he's stayed current on players and schemes as part of his announcing gig, I'd imagine it's not quite the same level of intensity as coaching. He also had some not great seasons in Tampa before getting the boot from there. I can certainly see him being better than the Del Rio or some of the other retreads that always seem to get second and third chances (seeing the news that Jim Schwartz is the front runner for the Giants gig comes to mind), but is he really worth a piece of the team and whatever else Davis is supposed to be paying?

 

[Ale Xander]

I had totally forgotten that Gruden was 39 (!) when he won the 2002 Super Bowl with the Bucs. That’s crazy.

In any event, he’s only in his mid-50s now. He could easily coach for a few years and then retire into the owner’s box and front office oversight.

But I don’t totally get why Gruden would want to be a head coach at this point. He has a seemingly great gig at ESPN, good relationships around the league, and a Super Bowl ring in a box at home. Does he really want to go back to the grind and intense pressure of leading a team in the NFL?

If he wins even one, they will erect a statue for him. Just hopefully not in time for the LV stadium opening.