Yep. Teams do their own mock draft scenarios sort of like "Choose Your Own Adventure". If such and such happens to Team X, Y, and Z and Player A, B, or C is available what do we do?
The butterfly effect.
I would be very interested to see a cascading series of mock drafts that could reflect the different timelines for each draft pick. Let's say, for example, that each draft pick represents a point in each draft sequence where the mock draft is split into three separate timelines.
Starting with the first pick, you mock three picks to the Browns (for example, Darnold, Allen and Mayfield) and these now represent three separate mock drafts or timelines going into the second pick:
(1) Darnold is not available
(2) Allen is not available
(3) Mayfield is not available
Then with the second pick, you mock three top picks for the Giants in each scenario:
At this point, maybe you have seven or eight timelines for the Jets at the third pick:
(1A) Darnold & Barkley are not available
(1B) Darnold & Mayfield are not available
(1C) Darnold & Chubb are not available
(2A) Allen & Darnold are not available
(2B) Allen & Barkley are not available
(2C) Allen & Mayfield are not available
(3A) eliminated - see (1B)
(3B) eliminated -
see (2C)
(3C) Mayfield & Barkley are not available
Again, you would identify the top three picks for each scenario above.
Obviously, it would be a ton of work, but I think it would very interesting to identify points in the draft where a team's top three choices normalize across a majority of the separate timelines. It would also be interesting to attempt to identify probabilities for which players may be available at any given point of the draft. For example, what chance is there that Derwin James is available at 21?
