2018 HoF Ballot
- Thread starter Yelling At Clouds
- Start date
He was better than Ortiz. Both should be HOFers. I forgot Frank Thomas really should be a DH though, so he bumps Edgar to 2nd.
believe whatever you want. Didn't initially see/load the top 4/5 of the post, including the headings .
Ridiculous. I guess the good news is that Edgar's, Bonds' and Clemens' totals all went up (Edgar 70.4% from 58.6% last year, Clemens 57.3% from 54.1%, Bonds 56.4% from 53.8%).
About 15 more war depending on which war you look at, 147 vs 141 ops+, better fielder. Obviously Ortiz gets some credit for postseason, but that's partly having more opportunities that Edgar never had so it's hard to knock Edgar for that.
That’s a big showing by Vizquel in his first year on a stacked ballot. Incredible. Never even close to one of the best players in baseball like Rolen, Santana, Jones, Walker etc.
Vlad was one of the most ernest entertaining players I’ve ever seen, right next to Bo Jackson and Pedro. When I could, I’d watch Expos and Angels games just in the hopes of seeing something otherworldly. It’s too bad the inductees get plaques and not highlight reels.
(That fell in for a single.)
That he would swing at anything was all part of the charm.
(That fell in for a single.)
That he would swing at anything was all part of the charm.
I'd gladly give him 5/$125Vlad was one of the most ernest entertaining players I’ve ever seen, right next to Bo Jackson and Pedro. When I could, I’d watch Expos and Angels games just in the hopes of seeing something otherworldly. It’s too bad the inductees get plaques and not highlight reels.
(That fell in for a single.)
That he would swing at anything was all part of the charm.
So Jamie Moyer gets the same amount of HOF votes as Johan Santana. Sounds about right for this sham.
The Baseball Hall of Fame is no longer worth discussing. Another year of denying two of the best players in the history of the game.
Maybe we can start a discussion on an MMA Hall of Fame where Jon Jones is not inducted.
The Baseball Hall of Fame is no longer worth discussing. Another year of denying two of the best players in the history of the game.
Maybe we can start a discussion on an MMA Hall of Fame where Jon Jones is not inducted.
How in the world can you refuse to vote for a DH because he doesn't play half the game and then... go ahead and vote for a closer?
If we're talking only regular season in discussing who the greatest DH is, the best argument for Ortiz is that he laps Martinez in counting stats and beat Edgar in ISO and slugging by a lot. He also had 1500 more plate appearances and saved one of his best seasons for last. Edgar fell off a cliff and was cooked.
The best argument for Edgar as the best DH ever is that .obp is a lot more valuable than slugging - roughly 1.8 times according to this article anyhow. And he beats Ortiz by 38 points (which helps explain the difference in WAR) as well as most rate stats.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/why_does_17obpslg_make_sense/
Edgar slashed .312/.418/.515 with a wOBA of .405 and a wRC+ of 147
Ortiz slashed .286/.380/.552 with a wOBA of .392 and a wRC+ of 140
Funny that the OPS is one point off.
Really it all comes down to preference on rate vs. counting stats which is why either argument has merit.
I think there is a very slight edge to Edgar on who the better pure hitter was in a vacuum, but I'm sure he would have given anything to have had Ortiz' post season career success, and I think that's what the voters will focus on more.
The best argument for Edgar as the best DH ever is that .obp is a lot more valuable than slugging - roughly 1.8 times according to this article anyhow. And he beats Ortiz by 38 points (which helps explain the difference in WAR) as well as most rate stats.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/why_does_17obpslg_make_sense/
Edgar slashed .312/.418/.515 with a wOBA of .405 and a wRC+ of 147
Ortiz slashed .286/.380/.552 with a wOBA of .392 and a wRC+ of 140
Funny that the OPS is one point off.
Really it all comes down to preference on rate vs. counting stats which is why either argument has merit.
I think there is a very slight edge to Edgar on who the better pure hitter was in a vacuum, but I'm sure he would have given anything to have had Ortiz' post season career success, and I think that's what the voters will focus on more.
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How might Edgar fare in his final ballot next year? How about some of the rest of the backlog, aside from Bonds and Clemens? Let's examine the cases of 22 players whose clocks ran for a long time, going back 20 years to the 1998 election. I'll spoiler it for length.
So we can pretty much divide the long-tenured candidates into 4 buckets (* = inducted by VC):
Cults of the Lost Cause: Sustained support below ~25%
9: Miñoso, Lolich, Tiant, Kaat, Concepcion, Parker, Murphy, Mattingly, McGwire
Consideration: Sustained support between ~25-50%
5: Santo*, Garvey, John, Trammell*, Smith
Contenders who Couldn't: Had a run above 50% but couldn't seal the deal
1: Morris*
Campaigners to Cooperstown: Success at election after a lengthy slog
7: Perez, Sutter, Gossage, Rice, Dawson, Blyleven, Raines
So out of 8 players who crossed the 50% mark in a meaningful way, 7 of them (all except Morris) ended up in via the BBWAA (and Morris via the back door). And of the 7 who finally kicked down the door, 2 (Rice and Raines) made it on their final try, Blyleven on his 14th and Sutter on his 13th.
That brings us to look at the vote trends of the current contenders.
Edgar Martinez (now going to his 10th ballot): Started at 36%, and stayed there 4 years. A 2-year dip into the 20s, followed by becoming a cause celebre, which saw him then jump to 43%, 58%, and now 70%. He resembles Blyleven and Sutter in vote patterns, and perhaps Raines, but lacks Blyleven's Q rating. Having avoided the doldrums of the "Consideration" group, it seems he's far likelier to make the cut next year than he is to join Morris.
Mike Mussina (6th next year): Started at 20%, but a jump to 43% in his third try, then 52%, now 64%. Tactical voters might postpone his election for a year if they need ballot space, but he seems closest to the Dawson / Gossage / Perez group who made it on their 9th ballot (Back when it was a 15-year window). Perhaps Gossage most of all, not just being a pitcher but also being stuck in "Consideration" land for a few years, rather than the instant inevitability of Perez. I'd say he's a lock.
Curt Schilling (7th): Started at 39%, then 29%, back up to 39%, and then more Contender-ish numbers the last 3 years: 52%, 45% (loudmouth year), and now 51%. It's too early to say for sure which group he's in, but while Gossage is his bull case, he has a few comps that are more bears (Smith and Garvey), and there's always the possibility of a Jack Morris'ing. He's always been a stronger vote-getter than the likes of Tommy John or Alan Trammell, but it seems he could still go either way.
Larry Walker (9th): Hurt perhaps by the reputation of Coors Field, Walker began his ballots with 3 in the low 20s, followed by 3 in the low 10s. But last year he saw a jump to 22%, and this year all the way to 34%. However, nobody in our analysis group who ever fell as low as Walker has, has ever made up the ground needed. Blyleven's path is the only one close, and he had the benefit of 15 ballots rather than 10, and a platform as a beloved broadcaster. Meanwhile, Walker is much more readily compared to the vote histories of Santo, Kaat, John, and Murphy. At least Santo got in via the VC, but Walker seems bound for Consideration but not Cooperstown.
(we'll leave Bonds and Clemens aside as duo generis)
2017: Tim Raines voted in on his 10th ballot, at 86%. He began at 24.3%, steadily gaining support, hitting 55% on his 8th try. He then jumped to 69.8%, and up to cooperstown the next.
- Also this year, Lee Smith falls short on his 15th, at 34.2%, the last of the grandfathered 15-year guys. Smith never fell below 29.9% and never rose above 50.6%.
2016: Alan Trammell falls short in his last year, at 40.9%. He was in the teens for his first 8 years, then the 20s and low 30s until a jump from 25% to 41% in his final year. He was voted in by the Veterans Committee today.
- Mark McGwire also falls short in his final year, ending with a whimpering 12.3%.
2015: Don Mattingly falls short in his last year, at 9.1%. He started out (in 2001) at 28.2%, as everyone seemingly thought all the cool kids would vote for him. He slowly and steadily trailed off as his mystique faded, spared a drop-out only by an ending of his eligibility.
2014: Jack Morris falls short in his last year, at 61.5%. He was in the low 20s his first 5 years, before a slow and steady momentum gathering, with votes in the 60s his final 3 years, ending with a drop from 67% to 61%. He was voted in by the Veterans Committee today.
2013: Dale Murphy falls short in his last year, at 18.6%. Never really gathered much steam (his best two years were his first two, at 19.3% and 23.2%), but had a devout minority following that kept him on the ballot. He had a final year bump from 14.5% to 18.6%.
2011: Bert Blyleven voted in on his 14th and penultimate ballot, at 79.7%. He had a slow and steady build, initially in the teens (3 years), then the 20s (3 years), and his final 3 going 62.7%, 74.2%, and then the 79.7%. Being as public a figure as he was surely helped.
- Dave Parker also fell short in his 15th ballot, at 15.3%, being between 10-20% for each of his final 13 years.
2010: Andre Dawson voted in on his 9th ballot, the year's only inductee at 77.9%. He started at 45% and gained votes every year but one, making an 11% leap up from 67.0% in 2009 to make the cut the next year.
2009: Jim Rice voted in on his 15th and final ballot, at 76.4%. Initially at 29% and never below that, he had 6 straight years in the 50s, then 2 in the 60s, then 72%, then 76% and in. He benefitted from a media campaign much like Blyleven.
- Also this year, Tommy John falls short in his final year, his best total at 31.7% never coming close. He was below the 20s once, and above it only in that last ballot.
2008: Goose Gossage voted in on his 9th ballot, the only inductee, at 85.8%. He started at 33%, held in the 40s for 4 years, then had a 3 year run up with a 71.2% in his 8th year, jumping way past the post the next.
- Meanwhile Dave Concepcion had a modest bump from 13% to 16% in his final year on the ballot, his second-highest-ever total.
2007: Steve Garvey falls short in his last year, at 21.1%. He had a Mattingly-like slide into bolivian, starting at 42% and in the high 30s / low 40s his first 6 ballots, slowly eroding down to the low 20s by his final few years, but never below 20%.
2006: Bruce Sutter voted in on his 13th ballot, the only inductee that year, at 76.9%. He had a long climb to glory, starting at 23.9%, and not cracking 32% until his 7th ballot, in 2000. Gained momentum steadily after that, with 50% in his 9th, 66.7% in his 12th, before making the cut. Was the only pitcher in the HOF with a losing W-L record, until Hoffman's election today.
2003: Jim Kaat falls short in his last year, at 26.2%. He had a very steady low-20s level of support, starting at 19.5%, never below 14%, never above 29%. His broadcast career appears to have helped him very little.
2002: Luis Tiant falls short in his last year, at 18.0%. Despite a cult following and a strong first ballot at 30.9%, he was at 10% the next year and as low as 7.2%, with his final year total also being his second-best.
2000: Tony Perez voted in on his 9th ballot, at 77.2%. He started out strong at 50% and never fell below that, spending 4 years in the 50s, 4 years in the 60s, and jumping from 61% up to enshrinement in his 9th try.
1999: Minnie Miñoso falls short in his last year, at 14.7%, after a very weird case. A star for the White Sox in the 50s, he had his last good year in 1961 and was done in 1964 at age 38. In 1969, he got just 1.8% of the vote, and fell off. But then in 1976, at age 50, he was brought back by the White Sox for 8 PAs in 3 games, and again in 1980 at age 54 (!) for another 2 PAs, resetting his eligibility. In 1986, his return to the ballot got him 20.9%, and he'd last the full 15 years in the low-to-mid teens.
- Mickey Lolich also fell in his 15th year, with an ignominious 5.2%. The 1968 WS MVP hit the ballot at 19.7%, got as high as 25.5% in his 4th try, but then fell between 5-10% for his last 11 ballots, holding on by a single ballot in 1994.
1998: Ron Santo falls short in his last year, at 43.1%. He got kicked off the ballot on his first go in 1980, but got re-nominated starting in 1985, coming in at 13.4%, rising to 25% by his 5th ballot, getting to 32% on his 9th, and never going below there. He had 6 straight years in the 30s, with a final-year push getting him to his 43%. He was inducted by the Veterans Committee in 2012.
- Also this year, Lee Smith falls short on his 15th, at 34.2%, the last of the grandfathered 15-year guys. Smith never fell below 29.9% and never rose above 50.6%.
2016: Alan Trammell falls short in his last year, at 40.9%. He was in the teens for his first 8 years, then the 20s and low 30s until a jump from 25% to 41% in his final year. He was voted in by the Veterans Committee today.
- Mark McGwire also falls short in his final year, ending with a whimpering 12.3%.
2015: Don Mattingly falls short in his last year, at 9.1%. He started out (in 2001) at 28.2%, as everyone seemingly thought all the cool kids would vote for him. He slowly and steadily trailed off as his mystique faded, spared a drop-out only by an ending of his eligibility.
2014: Jack Morris falls short in his last year, at 61.5%. He was in the low 20s his first 5 years, before a slow and steady momentum gathering, with votes in the 60s his final 3 years, ending with a drop from 67% to 61%. He was voted in by the Veterans Committee today.
2013: Dale Murphy falls short in his last year, at 18.6%. Never really gathered much steam (his best two years were his first two, at 19.3% and 23.2%), but had a devout minority following that kept him on the ballot. He had a final year bump from 14.5% to 18.6%.
2011: Bert Blyleven voted in on his 14th and penultimate ballot, at 79.7%. He had a slow and steady build, initially in the teens (3 years), then the 20s (3 years), and his final 3 going 62.7%, 74.2%, and then the 79.7%. Being as public a figure as he was surely helped.
- Dave Parker also fell short in his 15th ballot, at 15.3%, being between 10-20% for each of his final 13 years.
2010: Andre Dawson voted in on his 9th ballot, the year's only inductee at 77.9%. He started at 45% and gained votes every year but one, making an 11% leap up from 67.0% in 2009 to make the cut the next year.
2009: Jim Rice voted in on his 15th and final ballot, at 76.4%. Initially at 29% and never below that, he had 6 straight years in the 50s, then 2 in the 60s, then 72%, then 76% and in. He benefitted from a media campaign much like Blyleven.
- Also this year, Tommy John falls short in his final year, his best total at 31.7% never coming close. He was below the 20s once, and above it only in that last ballot.
2008: Goose Gossage voted in on his 9th ballot, the only inductee, at 85.8%. He started at 33%, held in the 40s for 4 years, then had a 3 year run up with a 71.2% in his 8th year, jumping way past the post the next.
- Meanwhile Dave Concepcion had a modest bump from 13% to 16% in his final year on the ballot, his second-highest-ever total.
2007: Steve Garvey falls short in his last year, at 21.1%. He had a Mattingly-like slide into bolivian, starting at 42% and in the high 30s / low 40s his first 6 ballots, slowly eroding down to the low 20s by his final few years, but never below 20%.
2006: Bruce Sutter voted in on his 13th ballot, the only inductee that year, at 76.9%. He had a long climb to glory, starting at 23.9%, and not cracking 32% until his 7th ballot, in 2000. Gained momentum steadily after that, with 50% in his 9th, 66.7% in his 12th, before making the cut. Was the only pitcher in the HOF with a losing W-L record, until Hoffman's election today.
2003: Jim Kaat falls short in his last year, at 26.2%. He had a very steady low-20s level of support, starting at 19.5%, never below 14%, never above 29%. His broadcast career appears to have helped him very little.
2002: Luis Tiant falls short in his last year, at 18.0%. Despite a cult following and a strong first ballot at 30.9%, he was at 10% the next year and as low as 7.2%, with his final year total also being his second-best.
2000: Tony Perez voted in on his 9th ballot, at 77.2%. He started out strong at 50% and never fell below that, spending 4 years in the 50s, 4 years in the 60s, and jumping from 61% up to enshrinement in his 9th try.
1999: Minnie Miñoso falls short in his last year, at 14.7%, after a very weird case. A star for the White Sox in the 50s, he had his last good year in 1961 and was done in 1964 at age 38. In 1969, he got just 1.8% of the vote, and fell off. But then in 1976, at age 50, he was brought back by the White Sox for 8 PAs in 3 games, and again in 1980 at age 54 (!) for another 2 PAs, resetting his eligibility. In 1986, his return to the ballot got him 20.9%, and he'd last the full 15 years in the low-to-mid teens.
- Mickey Lolich also fell in his 15th year, with an ignominious 5.2%. The 1968 WS MVP hit the ballot at 19.7%, got as high as 25.5% in his 4th try, but then fell between 5-10% for his last 11 ballots, holding on by a single ballot in 1994.
1998: Ron Santo falls short in his last year, at 43.1%. He got kicked off the ballot on his first go in 1980, but got re-nominated starting in 1985, coming in at 13.4%, rising to 25% by his 5th ballot, getting to 32% on his 9th, and never going below there. He had 6 straight years in the 30s, with a final-year push getting him to his 43%. He was inducted by the Veterans Committee in 2012.
So we can pretty much divide the long-tenured candidates into 4 buckets (* = inducted by VC):
Cults of the Lost Cause: Sustained support below ~25%
9: Miñoso, Lolich, Tiant, Kaat, Concepcion, Parker, Murphy, Mattingly, McGwire
Consideration: Sustained support between ~25-50%
5: Santo*, Garvey, John, Trammell*, Smith
Contenders who Couldn't: Had a run above 50% but couldn't seal the deal
1: Morris*
Campaigners to Cooperstown: Success at election after a lengthy slog
7: Perez, Sutter, Gossage, Rice, Dawson, Blyleven, Raines
So out of 8 players who crossed the 50% mark in a meaningful way, 7 of them (all except Morris) ended up in via the BBWAA (and Morris via the back door). And of the 7 who finally kicked down the door, 2 (Rice and Raines) made it on their final try, Blyleven on his 14th and Sutter on his 13th.
That brings us to look at the vote trends of the current contenders.
Edgar Martinez (now going to his 10th ballot): Started at 36%, and stayed there 4 years. A 2-year dip into the 20s, followed by becoming a cause celebre, which saw him then jump to 43%, 58%, and now 70%. He resembles Blyleven and Sutter in vote patterns, and perhaps Raines, but lacks Blyleven's Q rating. Having avoided the doldrums of the "Consideration" group, it seems he's far likelier to make the cut next year than he is to join Morris.
Mike Mussina (6th next year): Started at 20%, but a jump to 43% in his third try, then 52%, now 64%. Tactical voters might postpone his election for a year if they need ballot space, but he seems closest to the Dawson / Gossage / Perez group who made it on their 9th ballot (Back when it was a 15-year window). Perhaps Gossage most of all, not just being a pitcher but also being stuck in "Consideration" land for a few years, rather than the instant inevitability of Perez. I'd say he's a lock.
Curt Schilling (7th): Started at 39%, then 29%, back up to 39%, and then more Contender-ish numbers the last 3 years: 52%, 45% (loudmouth year), and now 51%. It's too early to say for sure which group he's in, but while Gossage is his bull case, he has a few comps that are more bears (Smith and Garvey), and there's always the possibility of a Jack Morris'ing. He's always been a stronger vote-getter than the likes of Tommy John or Alan Trammell, but it seems he could still go either way.
Larry Walker (9th): Hurt perhaps by the reputation of Coors Field, Walker began his ballots with 3 in the low 20s, followed by 3 in the low 10s. But last year he saw a jump to 22%, and this year all the way to 34%. However, nobody in our analysis group who ever fell as low as Walker has, has ever made up the ground needed. Blyleven's path is the only one close, and he had the benefit of 15 ballots rather than 10, and a platform as a beloved broadcaster. Meanwhile, Walker is much more readily compared to the vote histories of Santo, Kaat, John, and Murphy. At least Santo got in via the VC, but Walker seems bound for Consideration but not Cooperstown.
(we'll leave Bonds and Clemens aside as duo generis)
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Hasn’t pretty much everyone that’s gotten to the 70% threshold gotten in? I understand the new dynamics of the 10 year window, but I think he should be fine next year.
(Advance apologies, I’m out, on mobile and would look myself, not asking anyone to do the leg work just didn’t know if anyone knew off the top of their head. )
(Advance apologies, I’m out, on mobile and would look myself, not asking anyone to do the leg work just didn’t know if anyone knew off the top of their head. )
I had just done the legwork. Jack Morris is the closest to miss this century, maxing at 67.7%. He got in via the Veterans Committee today.
Prior to that, the previous near-miss was Orlando Cepeda, who started in the teens, jumped to the 30s and 40s for ballots 5-12, the 50s for #13 and 14, and hit 73.5% in 1994, his final year of eligibility, missing by 7 votes. He was inducted by the Veterans Committee 5 years later, in 1999.
Jim Bunning got as high as 74.2% in 1988, missing by 4 votes (after getting 70.0% the previous year). He finished his run with a 63.7% in 1991, and was inducted by the Veterans Committee in 1996. I believe he's the closest anyone's come without later getting in via BBWAA.
Prior to that, the previous near-miss was Orlando Cepeda, who started in the teens, jumped to the 30s and 40s for ballots 5-12, the 50s for #13 and 14, and hit 73.5% in 1994, his final year of eligibility, missing by 7 votes. He was inducted by the Veterans Committee 5 years later, in 1999.
Jim Bunning got as high as 74.2% in 1988, missing by 4 votes (after getting 70.0% the previous year). He finished his run with a 63.7% in 1991, and was inducted by the Veterans Committee in 1996. I believe he's the closest anyone's come without later getting in via BBWAA.
oh, and just to give weight to a previous comment, it's not a super-crowded next couple of years, in terms of big-name new entrants:
2019: Rivera, Halladay, Helton, Pettitte
2020: Jeter, Abreu
2021: Nobody, really. Tim Hudson?
2022: A-Rod, Ortiz
Maybe some voters would vote for Halladay, Helton and/or Pettitte over Edgar, but he's unlikely to be bumped off of anyone's ballot for want of room next year. That did cost him a few votes this year, as Thibs' ballot tracker showed.
2019: Rivera, Halladay, Helton, Pettitte
2020: Jeter, Abreu
2021: Nobody, really. Tim Hudson?
2022: A-Rod, Ortiz
Maybe some voters would vote for Halladay, Helton and/or Pettitte over Edgar, but he's unlikely to be bumped off of anyone's ballot for want of room next year. That did cost him a few votes this year, as Thibs' ballot tracker showed.
There is no way ARod is getting in right? If Bonds and Clemens can't get close then I'd think ARod might not even last 10 years.
I was living in Cleveland during the 1997 ALCS, and Mussina's performance in it, although his team lost, will forever be burned in my mind. Damn. 270 wins isn't too bad either. Smart guy, loved to hate him, I'd shake his hand today.
Daddy Vladdy was beast quality for a long time. Waved the bat like a wet rag, swung at everything, but connected a lot.
Edgar was a pretty good third baseman, he just couldn't stay healthy. Ortiz was a DH because he had an iron glove.
2023: Beltran, Ichiro, Hosmer, Moustakas, Martinez, etc.
The shift towards Bonds and Clemens in recent years suggests the exact opposite to me - if the voting body has evolved this much over the course of two or three years, I have to imagine that evolution will continue over the next twelve. Add the image rehabilitation he's undergone thanks to his TV work, and I think he'll make it.
I don't know if he gets in, but A-Rod easily hangs around for 10 years. Every year old farts lose their right to vote, and every year young writers who are markedly less inclined to give a poop about steroids gain their right to vote (Bonds and Clemens got on 90% of the new ballots).
Reaching Bonds/Clemens levels of support might be tough, but Manny is not leaving the ballot anytime soon, and A-Rod has a decent "he got screwed" argument versus Manny simply failing tests, plus he's now a widely respected and popular broadcaster so he's still in the public eye.
Well .. not staying healthy was exactly the reason (according to Theo) that Ortiz was the DH. He had had a checkered injury history with the Twins.
It's a travesty that Edgar can't get in, but a guy who I'm shocked didn't get more support is Andruw Jones. Along with Scott Rolen, those guys prove that the HoF voters are still really selective (i.e random) about how and when they count defense towards the value they put on guys. I don't see how you can discount someone like Edgar Martinez or David Ortiz (even though I'm sure that Miguel Cabrera will waltz right in) because they don't contribute enough defensively, and then turn around and not vote for the greatest defenders and some of the most well-rounded players of their generation because TOO MUCH of their value came from defense.
So Boras' final FA binder on Johnny Damon closing out a Hall of Fame career was just hyperbole? I am shocked.
Actually, the answer is Nellie Fox, who missed by 1 vote (74.7%) in his final year of eligibility in 1985. He later got in by the vet's committee, a year after Bunning.