2018 MMA/UFC

luckiestman

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Yeah, I didn't like that either. Dont' get me wrong - it was a great fight. But it seems to me like they gave an inordinate amount of weight to empty takedowns when DJ controlled the overall pace and continuously scored on him.
I don't really think MM outstruck Cejudo that much at all. I thought Cejudo even dropped him once
 

luckiestman

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Cody is a little too crazy. If he doesnt run afte TJ guns blazing, he really had a shot.
 

MikeM

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I don't really think MM outstruck Cejudo that much at all. I thought Cejudo even dropped him once
Yeah, this. I mean no doubt it was a super close fight and of the hard to score variety, but I personally wasn't scoring DJ 3 of those rounds.
 

MikeM

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He did the same thing in the first fight. He's dumb. It's funny to watch him lose.
I been saying for a while that people read too much into that Cruz fight.

Fluky one night where a guy looked better then he'll ever look again and while fighting a perfect fight on the perfect night. He'll never see the title again imo. Too stupid, and not well rounded enough. Pretty much helped carve out a decent career for him now as a "name" though.
 

luckiestman

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I been saying for a while that people read too much into that Cruz fight.

Fluky one night where a guy looked better then he'll ever look again and while fighting a perfect fight on the perfect night. He'll never see the title again imo. Too stupid, and not well rounded enough. Pretty much helped carve out a decent career for him now as a "name" though.

I still think Cody is really good. TJ is just better and it’s only because he is mentally stronger but that matters.
 

Vinho Tinto

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Throwing a chair at a bus? Who gives a fuck?

That wasn’t a chair. It was a hand truck. If it goes through the glass, whoever is on the other side is maimed.

Two fighters had to withdraw with injuries from the glass exploding inside the bus. Rose fought with an injured hand

McGregor is very lucky to have fought Floyd Mayweather. The settlements from this will wipe out a nice chunk of his MMA money.
 
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Phragle

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Totally expected to see them hand that to DJ. Good to see the judges get that right though.
Yeah I did too.

Yeah, I didn't like that either. Dont' get me wrong - it was a great fight. But it seems to me like they gave an inordinate amount of weight to empty takedowns when DJ controlled the overall pace and continuously scored on him.
I don't think the takedowns were empty. He was constantly in a dominant position. Moose is so quick you can't go after him even on the ground. Looked to me like Cejudo was happy with a little ground and pound while he waited for DJ to make a mistake. I think that's how you have to do it, but it's more credit to DJ than a knock on Cejudo tho.

I think the best strikes were the leg kicks, but outside of that I don't think DJ did much. He was always backing into the cage or getting taken down. Honestly that was the first fight I enjoyed at 125 and it was still plagued by the problems it always has. If a fight like that happens at 170 it probably doesn't go to a decision. The little guys just don't hit hard enough and the head movement seems to out quick the hands. The whole division has way too many decisions, the most in the UFC.

I'd love to see TJ vs Cejudo and Moose vs Cruz at 135. You could probably do it soon, and on the same card. Then think about closing the 125 division.

Cody is a little too crazy. If he doesnt run afte TJ guns blazing, he really had a shot.
Maybe, but lets not take too much away from TJ. The guy is amazing. There's really one blemish on his record and IIRC the Cruz fight was close to a coin flip. He has a case that he's the best to do it in his division and will probably strengthen his case in his next fight that he'll be favored in whether it's Cruz or Cejudo.
 

luckiestman

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Woodley used my move. Just taught a class on a bunch of Darce variations yesterday.
 

Phragle

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Schaub said some interesting stuff about Woodley and the UFC brass on his latest podcast. Started just before the 55 min mark and goes on for 30 mins but the meat of it is posted in this
I'm really looking forward to betting Woodley in his next fight. I'd have him as a pretty strong favorite vs anyone they give him next.
 

EvilEmpire

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Ryan Hall will fight BJ Penn at UFC 232. I've been a Hall fan since his TUF stint. I'm a little surprised Dana gave him a "name" fight after Maynard.
 

djbayko

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Schaub said some interesting stuff about Woodley and the UFC brass on his latest podcast. Started just before the 55 min mark and goes on for 30 mins but the meat of it is posted in this
I'm really looking forward to betting Woodley in his next fight. I'd have him as a pretty strong favorite vs anyone they give him next.
I think the problem is that everyone else will agree with you. Many had Till giving Woodley style match up issues and he proved those people wrong. I don't think we're going to see odds that close in his next fight.
 

luckiestman

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Ryan Hall will fight BJ Penn at UFC 232. I've been a Hall fan since his TUF stint. I'm a little surprised Dana gave him a "name" fight after Maynard.

I’ve been waiting for Hall to fight for a long time. I just wish it wasn’t against a god of the sport that should be retired. Penn is something like 1-7 in his last 8 fights.
 

Phragle

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I think the problem is that everyone else will agree with you. Many had Till giving Woodley style match up issues and he proved those people wrong. I don't think we're going to see odds that close in his next fight.
Even tho he's been a dog in most of his recent fights in retrospect I don't regret not betting any of them except for Maia. I'd expect him to stay underrated and a good value even as a favorite. He's probably a favorite vs Covington and a dog vs GSP, and I'll bet him in both.
 

djbayko

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Even tho he's been a dog in most of his recent fights in retrospect I don't regret not betting any of them except for Maia. I'd expect him to stay underrated and a good value even as a favorite. He's probably a favorite vs Covington and a dog vs GSP, and I'll bet him in both.
Oh, I wasn't even thinking about GSP. Yes, those odds would be interesting. I think he's being given for more credit than he deserves as someone who's had one fight in 5 years against a pre-retirement Bisping and was beaten to a pulp in his prior fight.
 

Phragle

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Oh, I wasn't even thinking about GSP. Yes, those odds would be interesting. I think he's being given for more credit than he deserves as someone who's had one fight in 5 years against a pre-retirement Bisping and was beaten to a pulp in his prior fight.
Well I think he'll fight Conor next but only if Conor wins. If Conor loses idk how he avoids Woodley. He won't fight Khabib, and probably doesn't want a piece of Whittaker. Maybe Diaz, but Woodely is making an argument to be the best 170 ever and his timeline is overlapping with GSP's. It's a legacy fight, similar to GSP and Hughes. It almost has to happen.

He's ripped right now btw
 

The Flying Dutchman

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I think GSP would fight kabib or Aldo at LW

I tHink you would need to see woodley win at least one more fight before GSP considers it. I think it would be even odds though. No way woodley is a dog in that fight
 

Gunfighter 09

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Woodley crushing Covington around the New Year and then fighting GSP at fight week next summer makes a ton of sense. I just dont know if Dana can bring him self to give Woodley that much run, even after he has cleaned out the division.
 

luckiestman

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Woodley crushing Covington around the New Year and then fighting GSP at fight week next summer makes a ton of sense. I just dont know if Dana can bring him self to give Woodley that much run, even after he has cleaned out the division.

The funny thing about Colby is he trained with Woodley and wants to make the fight. I always pay attention to that. Otherwise, just looking at their respective body of work, it looks like an easy win for Woodley.

My favorite mma odd couple friendship is that Masvidal and Colby are tight.

 

Gunfighter 09

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That is a really good point, and I think Covington is a good fighter, I really like his pressure / wrestling based style. I just think Woodley is too talented of a wrestler for Colby to take him down and that Woodley's counter punching power sleeps him at some point in the fight.
 

Marciano490

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Nov 4, 2007
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Woodley crushing Covington around the New Year and then fighting GSP at fight week next summer makes a ton of sense. I just dont know if Dana can bring him self to give Woodley that much run, even after he has cleaned out the division.
What’s wrong with Woodley? Lack of aggression at times?
 

Gunfighter 09

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As a fighter, he's near perfect from my view, but I think the reasons Dana White hates him are:

-he fought Wonderboy the way you have to fight him to win, especially when you are short like Woodley, but that shit was boring.

-He tore his labrum in the first round against Maia, and had to fight a very defensive fight to beat the best pure grappler in MMA history. Once again, that shit was boring.

-He is probably a bit of a pain in the ass from the promoter perspective, but I have to imagine most successful champs are not all personality machines like DC. He makes weight, he does well when they put him on the desk on Fox, and fights whoever they ask him to and wins.

-He doesn't get 7 figure PPV buys, so he apparently has to be fun to work with for Dana to support him publicly.
 

Marciano490

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As a fighter, he's near perfect from my view, but I think the reasons Dana White hates him are:

-he fought Wonderboy the way you have to fight him to win, especially when you are short like Woodley, but that shit was boring.

-He tore his labrum in the first round against Maia, and had to fight a very defensive fight to beat the best pure grappler in MMA history. Once again, that shit was boring.

-He is probably a bit of a pain in the ass from the promoter perspective, but I have to imagine most successful champs are not all personality machines like DC. He makes weight, he does well when they put him on the desk on Fox, and fights whoever they ask him to and wins.

-He doesn't get 7 figure PPV buys, so he apparently has to be fun to work with for Dana to support him publicly.
I can see all that, but I enjoy watching him. He’s always got that threat of violence around him. Even in the Wonderboy fights, there was that anticipation knowing the power he has. Plus, he looks the part. I like him, but I can see some finding him dull or risk averse. The resume is getting up there though.
 

Zomp

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I enjoy watching Woodley fight but outside of the Octagon he is a black hole when it comes to charisma and personality. Dana probably isn't crazy about him because he's not a draw, and to be honest he's a bit difficult to market because he's just so...plain? Couple that with fans feeling that he won the title with an undeserved shot and, well, you get Woodley. P4P one of the best fighters in the UFC but someone who'll never be as big as he should be.
 

MikeM

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Love or hate him Jones is the goat, and seeing him back in the octagon is a win for the sport. Guessing AG in his comeback fight, then the trilogy with DC (no way he passes up a 3rd crack at beating Jones after finishing up this easy upcoming circus fight against Lesner).

On a separate note, is it just me or does Connor and UFC seem to be making at lot less overall mainstream effort then usual to hype this upcoming fight?
 

EvilEmpire

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DC should vacate 205 and only fight Jones at HW.
I don't know if it will happen, but yeah, this. Even better if Jones could fight Stipe first while DC messes around with his money fight against Lesnar. Assuming Jones beats Stipe, that would be a great retirement fight for DC. And if Jones doesn't beat Stipe, well, that is kinda OK for DC too.

All that assumes DC is serious about retiring soon.

Edit: I only want to see Juggernaut DC for the rest of his career.
 

Marciano490

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Nov 4, 2007
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Is DC-Lesnar signed? I’d rather see Brock fight Jones.

Also, Connor is beyond annoying now. I really hope Khabib ends up, but he’ll have to do a lot better than his last fight. I’m hoping he played down to his competition.
 

Phragle

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Bellator -- maybe you've heard of it -- actually has great card coming up on Saturday. Mousasi vs Macdonald, Lima vs Koreshkov, and Pico vs a 22-4 Brazilian. It's streaming on something called Dazn. Might be hard to watch but there are certainly some fights worth watching.
 

MikeM

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Most intriguing main event fight Bellator has had in a while. Definitely on par with anything the UFC can offer at that weight range atm/imho.

Let's be honest though. Rampage/Silva will likely be a complete "I just showed up with no cardio to get my check" bout if it lasts more then a minute or 2 lol.
 

Phragle

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Tried to stay up for it but just couldn't swing it with the Ryder cup going on too. Watched some of it, then the rest yesterday. The Dazn app actually worked pretty well and I could watch the replay the next day which was nice.

A few things (with spoilers)
- Pico is a stud. He seems a little too happy to be a prospect, but they way he's going he'll be a lot more than that eventually. Would love to see him move to the UFC.
- Lima vs Koreshkov, with all the talent was disappointing, and was a bit of a throwback looking fight where Usada was clearly not involved.
- Yes, Rampage - Silva was what we thought it was.
- Mousasi keeps proving that's he's as good as it gets at 185. Macdonald looked flat and a little outmatched, panicked, pulled guard, and got smushed. Should stay at 170.

And in UFC news Greg Hardy quickly vaporized another guy to go to 6-0, all first round knockouts. Seems like most of it is toughness and genetics but also inevitable he's going to do something in the UFC.
 

Marciano490

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Nov 4, 2007
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Locked in Khabib -150.

Currently seeing -170.

Still rooting for Conor.
Man, I dunno how to bet this. It’s an odd fight in that Khabib’s strengths play to Conor’s weaknesses and vice versa.

Like, Khabib doesn’t move his head for shit and Conor is long and accurate and has a great sense of distance and angles. I don’t know how good Khabib’s chin is, but I think he’s going to get hit a lot in the first round or two.

Of course, I don’t think Conor can wrestle for a damn and his endurance always craps out about midway through, so if he doesn’t crack him early, Khabib will maul him. I might not bet this one.
 

djbayko

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If you asked me two weeks ago, I would have said Khabib, but I've changed my mind. Conor gets a lot of shit, but he's a very intelligent fighter. He's shown an ability to stuff take downs in the past fairly well. Granted, he's never faced a grappler quite like Khabib before, but it's not like he has no idea what he's getting into. I really like the fact that he refused to do promotion so that he could focus on training. That really says a lot, especially considering how much he loves the limelight. Conor will most likely be taken down at some point, so it will be vitally important that he somehow find a way to get back on his feet - but we've yet to see anyone be able to do that against Khabib as of late. I think what really does it for me is Conor's excellent ability to manage distance combined with his punching accuracy and power. Khabib has had the tendency to walk through punches to close distance, and that would be extremely dangerous against Conor.

One knock people have had against Conor is that he appears to duck dangerous match-ups. Well, no one can argue that's happening here.

Undefeated 26-0 champion vs. UFC poster boy in a legacy-defining fight. Whatever happens, this one is going to be a lot of fun.
 

Gunfighter 09

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If you asked me two weeks ago, I would have said Khabib, but I've changed my mind. Conor gets a lot of shit, but he's a very intelligent fighter. He's shown an ability to stuff take downs in the past fairly well.
Is this true? He stuffed multiple take downs from a woozy Alvarez, but the only other primary grappler he has faced, Mendes, took him down at will until he gassed.


I have no idea on this one. This could look like the Connor - Alvarez fight, or it could look like the Khabib - Barbosa fight, with probably equal likelihood of each outcome.

For me it comes down to trusting Javier Mendez & Bob Cook to have a better plan than team Connor. I’ll take Khabib in 3 with a submission. I think Connor is tough as hell, but he doesn’t strike me a late tapper if Khabib gets something locked in.


Marciano, if you need to scratch the betting itch, the odds on the Pettis / Tony fight are way out of whack, you can get good value (+350) on Pettis with Furgeson coming back super early from a bad knee injury. Seeing how Pettis has awesome kicks and has submitted some of the best BJJ black belts in MMA, that’s a great value bet.
 

djbayko

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Total Stake: $8,076.26
  • WILL CONOR MCGREGOR MAKE WEIGHT? - YES -900
  • Bruce Buffer's Tie for Main Event - Bow Tie -150
  • Will McGregor bring a bottle of his whisky (Proper No. Twelve) in the walkout? - No -160
  • McGregor to do the Billionaire Strut - Yes -250
  • McGregor and Khabib Touch Gloves - No +200
  • Will they touch gloves at the start of Round 1? - Yes +275
  • NOT Nurmagomedov wins in round 1 -750
  • NOT Nurmagomedov wins by TKO/KO -515
  • CONOR MCGREGOR BRINGS AN IRISH FLAG INTO THE CAGE - NO +3000
  • KHABIB NURMAGOMEDOV WEARS PAPAKHA INTO THE CAGE - NO +3000
  • Fight By Decision +320 (hedge of the above 2 props - if one wins ITD, then one of those things most likely isn't happening)
  • MCGREGOR BRINGS BOTTLE OF PROPER 12 INTO THE CAGE - NO +145
  • McGregor / Nurmagomedov draw +8500
  • McGregor at Post Fight Octagon Interview - Under 2½ F-Bombs -120
  • Will there be an altercation after the fight? - No -500
  • McGregor at Post Fight Press Conference - McGregor Does Not Wear Sunglasses -250
  • McGregor at Post Fight Press Conference - No Bottle of Proper Twelve Whiskey +140
  • Dana White at Post Fight Press Conference - How many times will Dana White say literally? - Under 4½ Literally -120
  • MCGREGOR VS NURMAGOMEDOV TOTAL PPV PURCHASES - UNDER $3.3 MILL -130
  • Total PPV buys (millions) for UFC 229. Total PPV buys (millions) for UFC 229 - Under 2.5 million -222
 

Marciano490

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Nov 4, 2007
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Thanks for the tip. What do people use for betting nowadays? I had a private bookie with an online site but notice recently he was double booking my losses and so need a new handler.
 

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
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Wait - you got 8k up in prop bets? Damn dude.
Yeah, this is a side job for me. For example:
  • 12k on Kavanaugh
  • 17k on Emmys
  • 23k on Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
  • 14k on NBA Draft
  • 24k on the Super Bowl
  • 19k on Oscars
  • 2k on Nobel Peace Prize
  • 5k on midterm elections (so far)
  • Etc.
Thanks for the tip. What do people use for betting nowadays? I had a private bookie with an online site but notice recently he was double booking my losses and so need a new handler.
Bovada and Bookmaker are probably the safest, but I play everywhere. Most of those lines and/or odds won't still be available now.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
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Nov 4, 2007
62,317
Yeah, this is a side job for me. For example:
  • 12k on Kavanaugh
  • 17k on Emmys
  • 23k on Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
  • 14k on NBA Draft
  • 24k on the Super Bowl
  • 19k on Oscars
  • 2k on Nobel Peace Prize
  • 5k on midterm elections (so far)
  • Etc.


Bovada and Bookmaker are probably the safest, but I play everywhere. Most of those lines and/or odds won't still be available now.
You ever use different books in different countries for better odds? Like when Conor fought Mayweather, I was seeing someone in Belfast and had her place my bet on Floyd at much better odds than I could’ve gotten through my guy.
 

djbayko

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You ever use different books in different countries for better odds? Like when Conor fought Mayweather, I was seeing someone in Belfast and had her place my bet on Floyd at much better odds than I could’ve gotten through my guy.
Of course. That's one of several reasons I have money everywhere. That, plus having a wider variety of lines to choose from, diversification to spread my risk around, and having the ability to take advantage of arbitrage scenarios across books.

If you want to shop for the best odds in combat sports, you need to bookmark these links:
https://www.bestfightodds.com/
https://www.proboxingodds.com/