2018 NBA Draft Lottery

Marbleheader

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The NBA Draft Lottery is Tuesday, May 15 at 7:30 PM.

The Celtics receive the Lakers pick if it is #2 or #3, otherwise Philly gets the pick.

Odds of Top Picks

Pick No.TeamOddsTop 3Record
1Phoenix25%64.1 %21-61
2Memphis19.9%55.6%22-60
3Atlanta13.8%42.6%24-58
4Dallas13.7%42.4%24-58
5Orlando8.8%29.1%25-57
6Sacramento5.3%18.3%27-55
7Chicago5.3%18.3%27-55
8Cleveland (via Brooklyn)2.8%9.9%28-54
9New York2.7%6.1%29-53
10Philadelphia (via LA Lakers)1.1%4%35-47
11Charlotte0.8%2.9%36-46
12LA Clippers (via Detroit)0.7%2.5%39-43
13LA Clippers0.6%2.2%42-40
14Denver0.5%1.8%46-36


List of Teams That Moved Up From Outside Top 5 to Top 3

1990 Seattle #10 to #2 (3.6%)
1992 Charlotte #8 to #2 (7.1%)
1993 Orlando #11 to #1 (1.5%)
1993 Golden State #7 to #3 (8.6%)
1999 Charlotte #13 to #3 (0.7%)
2000 New Jersey #7 to #1 (4.4%)
2001 LA Clippers #8 to #2 (3.4%)
2003 Memphis #6 to #2 (7.2%)
2005 Milwaukee #6 to #1 (6.3%)
2007 Portland #7 to #1 (5.3%)
2008 Chicago #9 to #1 (1.7%)
2009 Memphis #6 to #2 (8.3%)
2010 Philadelphia #6 to #2 (6.0%)
2011 LA Clippers/Cleveland #8 to #1 (2.8%)
2013 Washington #8 to #3 (4.8%)
2014 Cleveland #9 to #1 (1.7%)
2017 Sacramento #8 to #3 (3.9%)

Best Case Scenario: Celtics Get #2-#3, Brooklyn/Cleveland pick goes down
Nightmare Scenario: Philly gets #1, Brooklyn pick ends up #2-#3
Most Likely Scenario: Philly and Cleveland draft around #8-10, Celtics look ahead to Sacramento's 2019 Top 1 protected pick. If it ends up #1 Philly gets it and Celtics get Philly's pick.

 

TripleOT

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It the Philly/Celtics pick isn't announced when they get to 10, and all the teams before them were as expected, there's going to be all kind of tension from Boston fans.

Will this then be the first time a team and its fan base is rooting to NOT get the first pick?
 

LondonSox

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The worst of these I can remember is the Grizzlies have a shot at first overall, and I think it was LeBron year.
They either got LeBron or nothing and their pick wasn't announced at 3.
And then .... Nothing.
 

The Social Chair

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Will this then be the first time a team and its fan base is rooting to NOT get the first pick?
Memphis could only keep their pick in 2003 if it was number 1 and they got number 2.


Jerry West's face is still brutal to watch. It was Lebron or nothing.
 

djbayko

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Memphis could only keep their pick in 2003 if it was number 1 and they got number 2.


Jerry West's face is still brutal to watch. It was Lebron or nothing.
I kinda wish they didn’t know the results already so we could see the real looks on their faces as the cards are opened (along with a few choice words, I’m sure).
 

NoXInNixon

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I kinda wish they didn’t know the results already so we could see the real looks on their faces as the cards are opened (along with a few choice words, I’m sure).
The people you see on TV don't know the results. A different representative from each team witnesses the actual lottery and is kept in media isolation until the picks are revealed.
 

djbayko

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The people you see on TV don't know the results. A different representative from each team witnesses the actual lottery and is kept in media isolation until the picks are revealed.
Thanks. I thought it was the same reps. I can't believe they don't show a little more emotion. Those ping pong balls can equate to a difference of hundreds of millions of dollars in some cases.
 

Marbleheader

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It the Philly/Celtics pick isn't announced when they get to 10, and all the teams before them were as expected, there's going to be all kind of tension from Boston fans.

Will this then be the first time a team and its fan base is rooting to NOT get the first pick?
I'm sure it's not. Top 1 protection has happened before. I'm more than happy to keep the streak of picking 3rd going another year. It's worked out OK so far.
 

Red Averages

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Took me 48, with us ending up #2. Also twice the 76ers got the 1st overall pick. Don't send me to represent the team!
 

Brand Name

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Moving the Line
3 sims and this. Choose me, Danny. Although the second had Cleveland first overall, so maybe it's all a matter of perspective.

 

Scoops Bolling

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I had the C's getting the #2 pick on my 8th try. Bizarre order overall. It went:
1) Chicago (up 5)
2) Boston (up 8)
3) Orlando (up 2)
4) Phoenix
5) Memphis

Phoenix fans would probably spontaneously implode.
 

moly99

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Should we be rooting for the Kings to land a top 3 pick or not?

I am not certain as it is so hard to predict what Vivek will do with that team. On paper it should be great for the Celtics if the Kings land a top 3 pick as Sacramento could finish tearing down their roster and rebuild around that guy. But Vivek may decide to trade the pick and go for broke next year since he doesn't have his draft pick anyway.
 

DJnVa

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38 tries for me.


Should we be rooting for the Kings to land a top 3 pick or not?

I am not certain as it is so hard to predict what Vivek will do with that team. On paper it should be great for the Celtics if the Kings land a top 3 pick as Sacramento could finish tearing down their roster and rebuild around that guy. But Vivek may decide to trade the pick and go for broke next year since he doesn't have his draft pick anyway.
If he gets a top 3, what kind of player do you think he can land with it that will help him go for broke?

He wants Rozier? I kid, I kid.
 

moly99

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If he gets a top 3, what kind of player do you think he can land with it that will help him go for broke?
It isn't what I think that matters, but what the idiot Kings organization thinks. Is Vivek crazy enough to trade a top 3 pick just to pull the Kings into playoff contention for a couple of years? This is an owner who thought cherry picking would work at the NBA level, so I am afraid the answer to that might be yes.
 

LondonSox

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I think you want the king's to suck.
With the new odds the sixers have a similar chance to get 1st for a range of king's outcomes.

If they are good (as in Lakers type of good 10th with no incentive to tank) that isn't ideal
 

BigSoxFan

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What would people rather have? A lottery pick this year and only the Memphis pick next year or 2 shots at the lottery next year with Sactown and Memphis?
Easy - this year. A lotto pick this year means it’s 2 or 3 and next year Memphis can’t be in top 8 and Sac could easily be 6-10. Also, I want the talent added to next year’s team, which should be in the mix for a title.
 

amarshal2

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What would people rather have? A lottery pick this year and only the Memphis pick next year or 2 shots at the lottery next year with Sactown and Memphis?
Memphis is top 8 protected next year, top 6 the year after, and unprotected in 2021
 

DJnVa

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It isn't what I think that matters, but what the idiot Kings organization thinks. Is Vivek crazy enough to trade a top 3 pick just to pull the Kings into playoff contention for a couple of years? This is an owner who thought cherry picking would work at the NBA level, so I am afraid the answer to that might be yes.
I get that, I'm just unsure who even a crazy GM might think can do that for them that would be available.
 

Big John

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Dec 9, 2016
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This year's draft will almost certainly be better 1-5 than next year's draft. This year its Ayton-Bagley-Doncic-Porter-Bamba (not necessarily in that order), and some folks think Jaren Jackson and Trae Young also merit top 5 consideration.

In 2019 its R.J. Barrett and a bunch of guys named Joe. Zion Williamson has a few fans (not me from what little film I've seen), but that's only two guys, not seven. Of course we're talking about 17 year-olds so that could change, but....
 

Marbleheader

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Should Danny have just taken the Lakers pick no matter what (likely #10 in 2018) rather than rolling the dice on 2019? I have to think he was the one that said if it falls outside the top 5 he didn't want it.
 

djbayko

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Should Danny have just taken the Lakers pick no matter what (likely #10 in 2018) rather than rolling the dice on 2019? I have to think he was the one that said if it falls outside the top 5 he didn't want it.
Maybe he'd like to adjust the Lakers pick to 2-7 protection or something like that. But it's hard to quibble with what he did a year in advance. Hindsight, 20/20 and all that. Most people here loved the protection (except for #1, of course, but obviously that was a concession he had to make). We still have a shot with Sacramento too.
 

LondonSox

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It gives him two shots, you take the chance that the Lakers get a good pick and if not the king's are still bad.
This draft is deep at the top, before the annual tear down of prospects to come.
This draft is of a quality depth comparable to last year, where Mitchell was outside the top 10.
Next year's draft has a lot less top end expectations and from the guys who I follow who watch high school and Europe there is are a couple of eh years coming.

In any normal year you want the ainge deal but if this draft is deep and next year shallow that would be the main reason it could go wrong.

It's also a bit unclear what the new lottery odds do to tanking.
The Lakers (and nets) were the only non tankers at the bottom which is always worth a spot or two in the records.

The kings will be in that situation next year. They have options this year and depends on the development of fox and buddy etc.

At the time the deal ainge got was clearly really good way to increase odds of a top 5 pick.

I'm pretty confident a good player is available at 10 this year, if ainge had the option again I wonder if he'd take the bird in hand this year to add to a hell of a team.

Both the Celtics and sixers can use role players, you obviously would like more but a top quality role player who is cheap for years and controlled for longer is super useful to a team with stars and youth.
 

E5 Yaz

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Should Danny have just taken the Lakers pick no matter what (likely #10 in 2018) rather than rolling the dice on 2019? I have to think he was the one that said if it falls outside the top 5 he didn't want it.
That argument can certainly be made ... but I've decided that next year's top first-year addition is Gordon Hayward, which gives them a season to see what they'll need in 2019

Further out-of-the-loop question: If they miss out on the Lakers pick ... and the Sac pick turns out to be No. 1 next year ... what do they get?
 

amfox1

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That argument can certainly be made ... but I've decided that next year's top first-year addition is Gordon Hayward, which gives them a season to see what they'll need in 2019

Further out-of-the-loop question: If they miss out on the Lakers pick ... and the Sac pick turns out to be No. 1 next year ... what do they get?
Philly's pick
 

nighthob

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This was all Ainge's plan to end up with Fultz in the end anyway. "Hey, keep your pick, send us Fultz."
I've kept making jokes about this and all, but the Sixers really should consider swapping Fultz for Rozier, because Simmons/Rozier would be a lethal combo.
 

DJnVa

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I've kept making jokes about this and all, but the Sixers really should
consider swapping Fultz for Rozier, because Simmons/Rozier would be a lethal combo.
Well, we definitely wouldn't want to make our rivals lethal...
 

Jed Zeppelin

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It gives him two shots, you take the chance that the Lakers get a good pick and if not the king's are still bad.
This draft is deep at the top, before the annual tear down of prospects to come.
This draft is of a quality depth comparable to last year, where Mitchell was outside the top 10.
Next year's draft has a lot less top end expectations and from the guys who I follow who watch high school and Europe there is are a couple of eh years coming.

In any normal year you want the ainge deal but if this draft is deep and next year shallow that would be the main reason it could go wrong.

It's also a bit unclear what the new lottery odds do to tanking.
The Lakers (and nets) were the only non tankers at the bottom which is always worth a spot or two in the records.

The kings will be in that situation next year. They have options this year and depends on the development of fox and buddy etc.

At the time the deal ainge got was clearly really good way to increase odds of a top 5 pick.

I'm pretty confident a good player is available at 10 this year, if ainge had the option again I wonder if he'd take the bird in hand this year to add to a hell of a team.

Both the Celtics and sixers can use role players, you obviously would like more but a top quality role player who is cheap for years and controlled for longer is super useful to a team with stars and youth.
I’ve gone back and forth on it quite a bit. It always felt like too small a window this year and it’s always tough to project a team two full seasons and offseasons ahead of time, even a disaster like the Kings. Not that Ainge hasn’t don’t it before. Have to appreciate him going balls out for a major pick.

One aspect that colors my opinion but probably not Ainge’s, is that the Celtics, even if you take out the SAC/PHI pick, could have up to three 1sts already (Memphis, LAC, and their own). But I think Ainge doesn’t really worry about that sort of thing nearly as much as the fan base—people were howling after the Simmons/Brown draft when he wasn’t able to parlay the extra picks into something better. The LAC pick is probably a relative long shot anyways as it’s lotto-protected.

Guess it’s a balance between having few holes to fill and trying to win. Can that rookie fill a role now on a winning team? I’d have been skeptical before Tatum and Brown. Getting a big under Horford’s wing asap would’ve been fun.
 

uk_sox_fan

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The NBA Draft Lottery is Tuesday, May 15 at 7:30 PM.

The Celtics receive the Lakers pick if it is #2 or #3, otherwise Philly gets the pick.

Odds of Top Picks

Pick No.TeamOddsTop 3Record
1Phoenix25%64.1 %21-61
2Memphis19.9%55.6%22-60
3Atlanta13.8%42.6%24-58
4Dallas13.7%42.4%24-58
5Orlando8.8%29.1%25-57
6Sacramento5.3%18.3%27-55
7Chicago5.3%18.3%27-55
8Cleveland (via Brooklyn)2.8%9.9%28-54
9New York2.7%6.1%29-53
10Philadelphia (via LA Lakers)1.1%4%35-47
11Charlotte0.8%2.9%36-46
12LA Clippers (via Detroit)0.7%2.5%39-43
13LA Clippers0.6%2.2%42-40
14Denver0.5%1.8%46-36
Your 1st picks sum to 101% with the problem being the Knicks should be 1.7% not 2.7%. C's got the No. 2 on my 2nd sim...
 

Vegas Sox Fan

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So if the broadcast gets to 10 and it's not the Lakers pick, do they bring the PHI and BOS reps out for the top 3 announcement? How awkwardly awesome would that be?