2018 NFL Draft Round 1 Game Thread NO SPOILERS PLEASE
- Thread starter tims4wins
- Start date
Chuckled a bit at this one.
I just watched Gettleman's and Shurmur's Saquon Barkley presser. Highlight for me was Gettleman mimicking an analytics nerd by typing on an imaginary keyboard, while a half-awake Shurmur watches his fingers. Good luck, Giants fans.
I just watched Gettleman's and Shurmur's Saquon Barkley presser. Highlight for me was Gettleman mimicking an analytics nerd by typing on an imaginary keyboard, while a half-awake Shurmur watches his fingers. Good luck, Giants fans.
A strong(er) OL and a stronger Running game (and the confusion a true 3 down back would cause the defense) will not only make life easier for the Next QB Joe Followgreatness, but also for Brady himself moving forward. Its kinda the Elway retirement/succession plan. Remember that version of the Broncos D was only top 1/3 in the league. Can the Patriots D get there in the next year or 2 and give Brady a couple more chances assuming he regresses?
I think Wynn and Michel are ways to help with that offensively.
I think Wynn and Michel are ways to help with that offensively.
They were transparent about Barkley as the Pats were cagy about Lamar, and the criticism built the past couple of weeks. Gettleman is venting.
There would be a withering counter-attack here, but pick # 31 makes it a bit awkward.
There would be a withering counter-attack here, but pick # 31 makes it a bit awkward.
I see a pretty big difference between taking a RB at 2, when you have a rare opportunity to add talent at premium positions, and taking an RB at 31, when you have a choice between a (potentially) terrific player at a less-premium position and a second- or third- tier player at a premium position. Positional value is real, but I don't put a lot of stock on it after the top 15-20 picks of the first round, and apparently neither does Belichick (who has consistently invested in non-premium positions like safety and TE).
Yeah but here's the thing. Elite RBs make more than 2m a year after they hit free agency. Good RBs make more than that usually (again post free agency). Saquon is going to make $31,489,725 over the course of his contract while the bill for Sony Michel is $9,698,868. Sure, it's not the kind of *potential* value gap you'd get if you selected a premiere 3-down defensive tackle at 31 but it's also not in the same league of bad decisions as paying 31 million dollars to draft an RB.
Edit: potential. None of this is ever guaranteed and that was implied but I think stating it is necessary.
Interesting post, SMU. It makes me wonder - in baseball, we have WAR and we have a pretty good idea what one "win" is worth in terms of dollars. Right now, roughly $7.5 million. Is there a football equivalent that can help us determine a player's value? For example, given what you just posted, it means that Barkley will cost of the life of his contract 3.24 times as much as Michel. Can we measure, at the end of five years, whether Barkley produced 3.24 times the value as Michel? How is this done in football? Any idea?
http://www.footballperspective.com/how-to-determine-the-appropriate-salary-cap-values-for-veterans-part-ii/
This is probably the best methodology I've seen, but is subject to flaws and questions in the AV system.
The Jaguars offense that just one week before put up 45 on a Steelers defense that was on a role for the last half of the year?
The defense needs help, but they are getting back a ton of talent from injury and will probably get some more help at some point in the draft + who they signed in FA.
Things are not as dire as people are making them out to be.
Cool, thanks. But jumping in, I have a serious question right off the bat. It says, "Each NFL team generates about 201 points of Approximate Value per season, or 6,440 points of AV per season in the 32-team era."
How can that possibly be true? How can a 13-3 Patriots team produce the same AV as 0-16 Cleveland?
I probably would have gone with Chubb at 2. Nobody can convince me they “had” to go with a QB, even though the Giants have picked this high maybe 5 times in the common draft era.
Trade out of 2? Sure, but none of us know who was offering what, if anyone was offering anything. And you have no assurance if you trade down, the guy you want will be there. We hear this common sense defense almost every year when B.B. “reaches” for a guy or, worse, reaches with a trade up. “Don’t be critical — someone could have grabbed the guy the Pats wanted. How do you know.”
There were other things going on in NY which led me to believe Barkley was their guy all along. One is a massive kiss-and-make up with Eli. I think this aspect is probably delusional — I don’t think they have closed the gap with Philly. But their offseason moves clearly flagged their belief they can GFIN.
Another relates to team culture. They got rid of all the knuckleheads except one — and they put that Uber talented knucklehead on notice. Barkley, I think, they see driving that culture change.
Would I have approached the offseason and draft this way? No. I would probably have started over — though if they thought all the QBs were dicey, that must give you pause.
But it’s far from a massive eff up IMO. Barkley could well be a transformational player.
I hope you are right. But that Steelers defense sucked ass, especially after Shazier went down. Poor example.
I think he phrased that incorrectly; I don't think it's true. You can read more about AV at:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html
The Steelers D was up-and-down. FWIW Jacksonville had a fumble return TD, another TD drive that was 18 yards after a TO, and a FG drive that was 9 yards after a turnover on downs, so it was more like 28 points (albeit on fewer drives). That's still very good, but it's not the dominant offensive performance 45 suggests.
Is it dire? No, they will be fine against bad offenses, and the offensive efficiency will continue to make the defense look better than it is. But they have problems. I'm not seeing "a ton of talent" coming back from injury. It's Hightower and a bunch of question marks. Hopefully a couple pan out, but I'd love a couple dice rolls via the draft also - especially athleticism up front, which has been a problem for years.
Best reaction I have seen from Bills fans. (NSFW)
Thread Title: Why Josh "Fucks" Allen is the best QB we could have taken
Let's fucking talk about this shit. A lot of motherfuckers in this sub are pissed we took Josh "Fucks" Allen. Well, hold on to your lily white butts because you guys are fucking wrong. Admittedly, I was pissed initially but then I did the Buffalo thing I drank a fuck ton of beers and realized shit isn't awful
First off let's looking at this big motherfucker. This man if 6 feet and 5 inches tall in Freedom units. To all you non US losers, that's freedom units for fucking big. This man is a large, sexy man. Now go back to picture, and look at that hair. One fucking hair flips of that mop and your bitches labia will be melting quicker than ice cream on a hot Cheektowaga day.
This man is 233 pounds, this is one big fuck. Buffalo is fucking cold, we need a big guy to survive here, he's built like a fucking polar bear with an RPG for a fucking arm. How fucking terrifying is that. Do you want to be an AFC East defense just to have the last time to see before you die is Josh Allen fucking your corpse with a flat footed 95 yard TD. You don't even need fucking receivers, janitors, hot dog guys, your shitty kid who strikes out looking in tee ball, doesn't fucking matter, just get open and he'll toss that shit in there.
This motherfucker came from Wyoming, some people don't even know where the fuck Wyoming is. Quite frankly the best thing that piece of shit has ever producing is Josh Allen. We've waited millions of years for evolution to get its shit together to make the ideal human. Josh is short for Joshua, that's a Bible name, because he'll have your bitch shouting 'Oh God' when he tossing touchdowns and salad while you fucking jabroni doubters sit there and wallow in sorrow
Wanna see some more shit? Look at these fucking hands, motherfuckers are like frying pans. Look at those fuckers, must be 13 inches wide. Dude's gonna try to beat off one day and just rip his dick right off his body. Look at how he holds that ball, those are soft fucking hands. You need a guy to lug a keg up some stairs, it's this motherfucker. You wake up drunk and realize you've ordered 31 cases of beer off Amazon and need to drink it all before the wife gets home. Who you gonna call? Sam "Just Water Please" Darnold, or Josh "I'm a Lightweight Bitch" Rosen? Fuck no, you call Josh Allen, he'll wake his ass up and run over wearing nothing but a blow up duck floatie on his waist. This man was born ready to chug beer and throw footballs
And I bet you've come this far and wonder "BUT HE SAID BUFFALO WINGS THEY'RE JUST WINGS". Fuck yeah they're just wings, but this motherfucker added Buffalo into the sentence to show how much he loves this fucking city. You can get wings a lot of places, but those motherfuckers are from Buffalo. It's like a dog pissing on a tree, you gotta claim your fucking territory. AND HE USES BLUE CHEESE NOT LIKE THAT FUCK TOM BRADY WHO USES RANCH LIKE A BITCH. Josh Allen 1, Tom Brady 0.
Now, the most important part. It's December, Bills are 5-9, you got tickets, no fucking chance of playoffs. HA I'm just fucking with you, we going 16-0. But you're here to go fucking nuts, you want to drink for breakfast and smash tables. Suddenly a man in a Spiderman mask jumps off a tour bus onto 3 flaming tables after drinking three beers. That man gets up and ITS JOSH FUCKING ALLEN
Is Rosen gonna go through the table? Fuck no, he'd hit the ground and get a concussion, probably be out for the season. What the fucks he gonna drink, his parents are doctors, probably told him not to drink and avoid fried foods. This man is anti-Buffalo.
What about Sam Darnold. Nah, no fucking way he does it. He'd probably throw himself off the bus and get intercepted. This motherfucker's mole is big, JOSH ALLEN IS JUST BIG. Sam Darnold and Rosen come from California, probably never even seen snow, Josh Allen lived in the woods in Wyoming hunting grizzly bears and salmon for three years, and he occasionally played QB too. This motherfucker knows about barren wastelands, he's perfect
What about Baker Mayfield? This little 6 foot pipsqueak with his stupid haircut. Now 6 feet is code for actually 5 foot 11 like a bitch. Josh Allen has 6 inches on this dwarf. He's also six inches taller. And have you seen this motherfucker run from cops, he looks like a gazelle ran into a flashbang. Josh Allen doesn't run, he is a machine built for evasion. Dude is a shifty motherfucker, fuck the police, stiff arm one motherfucker, hurdle another. There he's gone, but oh shit, back up, out comes a 300 pounder from the force. But Allen's already down the street, he's gone. BUT then he turns back to disgrace this man's family by running 233 pounds of beef down over his limp carcass. Josh Allen don't give a fuck
So for all you jabroni naysayers, fuck you, Josh Fucking Allen is Buffalo personified. I'm angry it took us this fucking long, why didn't we have scouts out in buttfuck Wyoming looking for this motherfucker when he was 8 slinging passes and dick in Wyoming summer ball.
Josh Allen is the fucking man. 6 foot 5 inches of pure muscle, he burns clean, no PEDs in this motherfucker, just pure red, white and blue and a mix of Bud Light and Chicken. So when you see him naked at tailgate slamming Nattys and breaking tables, don't fucking say anything, this is how he warms up to throw 500 yards and 8 TDs on the Pats asses. What's a fucking drought, he can't even count to 17, and the only letter he knows is W. This man is part alcohol, part arm and the epitome of Buffalo. Fuck the Pats
TLDR: I'm drunk and Josh "Fucks" Allen is a Buffalo Bill and that's why.
Let's fucking talk about this shit. A lot of motherfuckers in this sub are pissed we took Josh "Fucks" Allen. Well, hold on to your lily white butts because you guys are fucking wrong. Admittedly, I was pissed initially but then I did the Buffalo thing I drank a fuck ton of beers and realized shit isn't awful
First off let's looking at this big motherfucker. This man if 6 feet and 5 inches tall in Freedom units. To all you non US losers, that's freedom units for fucking big. This man is a large, sexy man. Now go back to picture, and look at that hair. One fucking hair flips of that mop and your bitches labia will be melting quicker than ice cream on a hot Cheektowaga day.
This man is 233 pounds, this is one big fuck. Buffalo is fucking cold, we need a big guy to survive here, he's built like a fucking polar bear with an RPG for a fucking arm. How fucking terrifying is that. Do you want to be an AFC East defense just to have the last time to see before you die is Josh Allen fucking your corpse with a flat footed 95 yard TD. You don't even need fucking receivers, janitors, hot dog guys, your shitty kid who strikes out looking in tee ball, doesn't fucking matter, just get open and he'll toss that shit in there.
This motherfucker came from Wyoming, some people don't even know where the fuck Wyoming is. Quite frankly the best thing that piece of shit has ever producing is Josh Allen. We've waited millions of years for evolution to get its shit together to make the ideal human. Josh is short for Joshua, that's a Bible name, because he'll have your bitch shouting 'Oh God' when he tossing touchdowns and salad while you fucking jabroni doubters sit there and wallow in sorrow
Wanna see some more shit? Look at these fucking hands, motherfuckers are like frying pans. Look at those fuckers, must be 13 inches wide. Dude's gonna try to beat off one day and just rip his dick right off his body. Look at how he holds that ball, those are soft fucking hands. You need a guy to lug a keg up some stairs, it's this motherfucker. You wake up drunk and realize you've ordered 31 cases of beer off Amazon and need to drink it all before the wife gets home. Who you gonna call? Sam "Just Water Please" Darnold, or Josh "I'm a Lightweight Bitch" Rosen? Fuck no, you call Josh Allen, he'll wake his ass up and run over wearing nothing but a blow up duck floatie on his waist. This man was born ready to chug beer and throw footballs
And I bet you've come this far and wonder "BUT HE SAID BUFFALO WINGS THEY'RE JUST WINGS". Fuck yeah they're just wings, but this motherfucker added Buffalo into the sentence to show how much he loves this fucking city. You can get wings a lot of places, but those motherfuckers are from Buffalo. It's like a dog pissing on a tree, you gotta claim your fucking territory. AND HE USES BLUE CHEESE NOT LIKE THAT FUCK TOM BRADY WHO USES RANCH LIKE A BITCH. Josh Allen 1, Tom Brady 0.
Now, the most important part. It's December, Bills are 5-9, you got tickets, no fucking chance of playoffs. HA I'm just fucking with you, we going 16-0. But you're here to go fucking nuts, you want to drink for breakfast and smash tables. Suddenly a man in a Spiderman mask jumps off a tour bus onto 3 flaming tables after drinking three beers. That man gets up and ITS JOSH FUCKING ALLEN
Is Rosen gonna go through the table? Fuck no, he'd hit the ground and get a concussion, probably be out for the season. What the fucks he gonna drink, his parents are doctors, probably told him not to drink and avoid fried foods. This man is anti-Buffalo.
What about Sam Darnold. Nah, no fucking way he does it. He'd probably throw himself off the bus and get intercepted. This motherfucker's mole is big, JOSH ALLEN IS JUST BIG. Sam Darnold and Rosen come from California, probably never even seen snow, Josh Allen lived in the woods in Wyoming hunting grizzly bears and salmon for three years, and he occasionally played QB too. This motherfucker knows about barren wastelands, he's perfect
What about Baker Mayfield? This little 6 foot pipsqueak with his stupid haircut. Now 6 feet is code for actually 5 foot 11 like a bitch. Josh Allen has 6 inches on this dwarf. He's also six inches taller. And have you seen this motherfucker run from cops, he looks like a gazelle ran into a flashbang. Josh Allen doesn't run, he is a machine built for evasion. Dude is a shifty motherfucker, fuck the police, stiff arm one motherfucker, hurdle another. There he's gone, but oh shit, back up, out comes a 300 pounder from the force. But Allen's already down the street, he's gone. BUT then he turns back to disgrace this man's family by running 233 pounds of beef down over his limp carcass. Josh Allen don't give a fuck
So for all you jabroni naysayers, fuck you, Josh Fucking Allen is Buffalo personified. I'm angry it took us this fucking long, why didn't we have scouts out in buttfuck Wyoming looking for this motherfucker when he was 8 slinging passes and dick in Wyoming summer ball.
Josh Allen is the fucking man. 6 foot 5 inches of pure muscle, he burns clean, no PEDs in this motherfucker, just pure red, white and blue and a mix of Bud Light and Chicken. So when you see him naked at tailgate slamming Nattys and breaking tables, don't fucking say anything, this is how he warms up to throw 500 yards and 8 TDs on the Pats asses. What's a fucking drought, he can't even count to 17, and the only letter he knows is W. This man is part alcohol, part arm and the epitome of Buffalo. Fuck the Pats
TLDR: I'm drunk and Josh "Fucks" Allen is a Buffalo Bill and that's why.
I guess this is the crux of my issue. I don't really believe in a RB as a "transformational player." Or any non-QB; maybe you could talk me into a dominant DL, or a LB in the kind of defense like Carolina's that's really dependent on the position. There's a great chance Barkley is a terrific RB and an excellent special teams player. That will help, but he is only one of 22(/46/53), and there are a lot of needs on a team that went 3-13 last year. If I'm picking that high, I need a player at a premium position, or I want to trade down like Indy did and pick up multiple picks to add talent in multiple places. Maybe the offers weren't there; I don't know. I thought Gettleman was terrific in Carolina but I have not been a fan of his moves so far in NY/NJ.
Yeah, Schrager said this about 20 mins ago on NFLN. Pats met with him, in case he fell.
What are we arguing here? The Patriots made average quarterbacks look amazing last year because they couldn't generate any pass rush and couldn't cover backs. Maybe Derek Rivers and the FA signings help that, maybe not.
But we saw enough of Kyle Van Noy as a key contributor last year to know that steps should be taken to avoid that happening again.
They have like four LB who are fine as long as they are the second-fast LB out there (Hightower, Van Noy, Roberts, Flowers) but the problem is they don't have anyone faster.
I think they're very high on Langi who was pretty quick at the combine in the shuttles. If he comes back 100% that's another linebacker with some speed.
Why do you think that? Is that based on anything or is it just wishful thinking? Clearly, they liked him enough to sign him as a UDFA (with big guarantees), but not enough that they made sure to get him by using a draft pick, then we saw nothing from him, then he got in that terrible car accident and we have no idea where he's at. By actions, I'm not seeing anything more than Zach Moore or Steve Beauharnais or any number of redshirt guys. IMO expecting much from him is wishcasting, but I guess they haven't brought in any competition.
So the Pats entered the draft with four picks in the first two rounds. They ended up using three of them. Here are the trades they made:
Give: #95
Get: OT Brown, #143
Give: #43
Get: #51, #117
Give: #51
Get: #105, 2019 2nd round pick
Give: #63, #117
Get: #56
So the net result is:
Had:
#23
#31
#43
#63
#95
#198
#210
#219
Now have:
#23 - OL Wynn
#31 - RB Michel
#56 - CB Dawson
#105
#143
#198
#210
#219
OT Brown
Chicago's 2nd round pick in 2019
Same number of picks in 2018 as before, but basically instead of #43, #63, and #95, they have #56, #105, and #143. Significant steps back in the draft order on all three counts. But in exchange for dropping back in those three rounds, they added a very, very good offensive tackle in Brown, plus Chicago's 2nd round pick in 2019. And it seems they drafted quality players they wanted in Wynn, Michel, and Dawson.
So you can kind of view it as a pick = a player. They had opportunities the first two days to add four players. Well, they've added four players. Two excellent offensive linemen, a stud RB, and a solid corner. And now they have five picks today, and they originally had just four picks scheduled for today. Plus they added Chicago's 2nd round pick next year, which could likely be a top 5, maybe top 10 pick in the round.
Seems like a solid way to do the draft if you ask me.
Give: #95
Get: OT Brown, #143
Give: #43
Get: #51, #117
Give: #51
Get: #105, 2019 2nd round pick
Give: #63, #117
Get: #56
So the net result is:
Had:
#23
#31
#43
#63
#95
#198
#210
#219
Now have:
#23 - OL Wynn
#31 - RB Michel
#56 - CB Dawson
#105
#143
#198
#210
#219
OT Brown
Chicago's 2nd round pick in 2019
Same number of picks in 2018 as before, but basically instead of #43, #63, and #95, they have #56, #105, and #143. Significant steps back in the draft order on all three counts. But in exchange for dropping back in those three rounds, they added a very, very good offensive tackle in Brown, plus Chicago's 2nd round pick in 2019. And it seems they drafted quality players they wanted in Wynn, Michel, and Dawson.
So you can kind of view it as a pick = a player. They had opportunities the first two days to add four players. Well, they've added four players. Two excellent offensive linemen, a stud RB, and a solid corner. And now they have five picks today, and they originally had just four picks scheduled for today. Plus they added Chicago's 2nd round pick next year, which could likely be a top 5, maybe top 10 pick in the round.
Seems like a solid way to do the draft if you ask me.
Accurate assessment excepting it is important to note the usage of the 95 on Brown only nets them 1 year of guaranteed control versus the standard rookie contract (plus the 2019 2nd rounder you accounted for). This as mentioned above may be strategic given the likely compensation (3rd round?) if Brown exits via free agency.
Yep, good point. Or heck, maybe they sign him to an extension...who knows? He's just 25, and he's already really good. Might not be the worst use of $$. We shall see. I just feel like it's important (for me anyway!) to size up what's actually happened so far because as "boring" as the first day was (the Pats just...uh...used their picks and that was that), yesterday was pretty hectic with the trades, and I wanted to see where it all shook out. I think they're in really good shape.
Patriots only had 4 picks last year, now maybe they could have traded in, but that's not something they usually do. He came in as the highest bonus UDFA of the year and made the 53, that in itself shows they liked him quite a bit. Additionally they seem to plan to keep him this season as well having cut McClellin instead of him.
It tells me they liked him enough to bring him in as a UDFA and enough to keep him on the roster for a few weeks anyway (was his accident definitely serious enough that he couldn't come back - or did they just decide to redshirt him once they had an excuse to). It doesn't tell me anything about his chances of making the 2018 team, and it certainly doesn't tell me anything about his chances of playing a role this year. We've seen guys do zero year one and make an impact year two, but for every Trey Flowerses there are probably ten Steve Beauharnais / Justin Francis / Chris Jones / Darryl Roberts / Geneo Grissom / etc.
McClellin was waived with a failed physical designation; I'll be kind of surprised if he plays in the NFL again given he missed a year with concussions and is apparently still having issues. His release has zero do do with Langi. Guys getting cut in August has to do with Langi; guys getting cut in March has to do with those guys.