2018 NFL Transactions & News

streeter88

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Apr 2, 2006
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Football Outsiders do a great statistic called Adjusted Games Lost. The 2016 Bears hold the all time record by their calculations with 158.8 AGLs, which simplified massively might be the equivalent of 10 starters missing the entire season. The article explains how they weight for the impact of the player (I.e., importance of position, starter vs. reserve, etc.).

Long article but worth a read, and maybe a check back later in the season to see how your team fared as they also compare to actual performance which makes for interesting charts.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/2017-adjusted-games-lost
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
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Sep 27, 2016
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Pittsburgh, PA
There's also Man Games Lost, which is used commercially by many sports teams, but who publishes their high-level season pictures on twitter. Here's the through-week-5 numbers:


So Atlanta has had fewer man-games lost than most of the league, but those they've had have been very impactful - the total-AV metric has them among the league leaders.

(also: Note the pinned tweet).
 

normstalls

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Mar 15, 2004
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So, it turns out that Josh Allen has a UCL problem in his elbow. They even had it looked at by James Andrews and Andrews says that it could be okay if he sits out at least the next two or three games. Who do the Bills play in two weeks on Monday October 29? The Patriots.

Nathan Peterman.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/10/16/report-josh-allen-wont-need-surgery-out-at-least-2-3-games/

Just saw notification that they are going to start Derek Anderson this week vs. Colts
 
So Atlanta has had fewer man-games lost than most of the league, but those they've had have been very impactful - the total-AV metric has them among the league leaders.
I'm guessing that stat doesn't account for games that are known to be lost in the future - i.e., players put on IR or otherwise declared to be out for the season, etc. But it certainly seems as though Philadelphia has a strong claim to be the most injury-affected team so far this year, particularly if you count Wentz not only missing two games but also only slowly returning to full health in the games he has played thereafter.
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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Patrick Peterson has asked Arizona to trade him per Adam Schefter.
So THAT'S what Gilmore's restructuring was about. I don't blame PP. He's 28 and this organization is a bottom 5 organization in all of sports. His prime is about to be wasted. He'd make a lot of sense for Houston.
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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A Peterson trade would require a Khalil Mack like package. I'm sure they could find a way to fit him in but I remain doubtful that they would pay what it would take to pry him from AZ. I doubt he gets traded but Houston is my pick if he does. They need secondary help and have the cap space. Adding an elite DB to that defense would be quite scary and with Watson still on his rookie deal, now's the time to get aggressive.
 

Ed Hillel

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Dec 12, 2007
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They just restructured Gilmore and got about $3.5m back in cap space, but I doubt it. They've only got $5.1m in cap room
I think about 5.4 and Peterson would be about 6, which I think works if you consider Peterson is taking the salary of another roster spot. It would be pretty easy to fix even if not, you could throw in another player.
 

mcpickl

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Jul 23, 2007
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I think about 5.4 and Peterson would be about 6, which I think works if you consider Peterson is taking the salary of another roster spot. It would be pretty easy to fix even if not, you could throw in another player.
But wouldn't leave enough space to replace injured players the rest of the way, and incentives that get hit.

They'd probably have to restructure Devin McCourty, or maybe Hightower, and swell their 2019 cap numbers to take on significant salary.
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
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Oct 31, 2013
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Saints make the most sense if they had a better cap situation as they have the worst DB situation of the GFIN teams. Upgrading Lattimore and restructuring the insane Brees contract I don;t think is enough. But Drew is not getting younger so if there's a way, they will try.

But all their money is in Brees and their OL, (and Jordan) and they have inflexible contracts for the most part.
 

dbn

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Feb 10, 2007
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I haven't seen Peterson play for a while, so I don't know how to valuate him, but the Patriots have one great CB, and... ? The only reason the Bears didn't score 1,000,000 points last Sunday* was because they had a QB who couldn't throw and WRs who couldn't catch. I'm not necessarily saying they should trade for Peterson, because it might not make sense value-wise on what they need give up, cap-y stuff, etc., but: they could absolutely use another good CB right now -- I think even more so than a good LB.

Regarding Oakland, they aren't going to be good this year or probably next, so banking very early draft picks is wise, IMHO. Sure, wasting another year of Carr, blah, blah, but chasing a year of Carr and failing into the future is a much worse outcome.


* edit: I'm not as down on the NE defense as that post sounds. As I said in the game thread, it seemed like just one of those games where they were off, and expect them to be better going forward. I stand behind the general point, though.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Dec 4, 2005
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I haven't seen Peterson play for a while, so I don't know how to valuate him, but the Patriots have one great CB, and... ? The only reason the Bears didn't score 1,000,000 points last Sunday* was because they had a QB who couldn't throw and WRs who couldn't catch. I'm not necessarily saying they should trade for Peterson, because it might not make sense value-wise on what they need give up, cap-y stuff, etc., but: they could absolutely use another good CB right now -- I think even more so than a good LB.

Regarding Oakland, they aren't going to be good this year or probably next, so banking very early draft picks is wise, IMHO. Sure, wasting another year of Carr, blah, blah, but chasing a year of Carr and failing into the future is a much worse outcome.


* edit: I'm not as down on the NE defense as that post sounds. As I said in the game thread, it seemed like just one of those games where they were off, and expect them to be better going forward. I stand behind the general point, though.
Every team in the league could use another good corner. Problem is if you don’t have linebackers that can cover, you could have a prime version set of Revis, Sanders, Reed and Lott and your still have trouble in this era. IMO right now they need to use any assets and cap space on a RB and a LB. reasonable minds can differ, but LB is a more glaring need to my eye and RB they’re just thin as shit.
 

BigSoxFan

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Saints make the most sense if they had a better cap situation as they have the worst DB situation of the GFIN teams. Upgrading Lattimore and restructuring the insane Brees contract I don;t think is enough. But Drew is not getting younger so if there's a way, they will try.

But all their money is in Brees and their OL, (and Jordan) and they have inflexible contracts for the most part.
Saints can try all they want but they don’t have a 2019 1st or 3rd round pick due to the Davenport and Bridgewater trades so a trade for PP is highly unlikely for them.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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Nov 29, 2005
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Every team in the league could use another good corner. Problem is if you don’t have linebackers that can cover, you could have a prime version set of Revis, Sanders, Reed and Lott and your still have trouble in this era. IMO right now they need to use any assets and cap space on a RB and a LB. reasonable minds can differ, but LB is a more glaring need to my eye and RB they’re just thin as shit.
I doubt that they are in a buyer mode for a RB. With Michel out only a month (+/-), and Burkhead back in 2, I think the only move would be Webb up from the PS, or a street free agent.
Agreed with LB. They could use a Jamie Collins type (sans les freelancings )
 

koufax32

He'll cry if he wants to...
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Dec 8, 2006
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I doubt that they are in a buyer mode for a RB. With Michel out only a month (+/-), and Burkhead back in 2, I think the only move would be Webb up from the PS, or a street free agent.
Agreed with LB. They could use a Jamie Collins type (sans les freelancings )
Is Burkhead really returning in two weeks? Not doubting but do you have a source story the gives a recovery update?
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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No clue how it would work, but if they could end up with Peterson and Gilmore at corner, that vastly improves the defense. No it doesn't solve the pass rush or LB coverage issues. But anytime you can get a prime player it helps. Two lockdown corners in the NFL is a huge asset, period.

Again, I don't see how it can work but I'd be giddy if they can.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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I checked this yesterday. Burkhead went on IR after Week 3. By rule, he is ineligible to return until 8 Weeks have passed. So in theory, he could be back as early as the Jets game in Week 12 (Week 11 is the BYE).
And I am guessing that is where I got the 2 months from... so, apologies for any confusion.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I doubt that they are in a buyer mode for a RB. With Michel out only a month (+/-), and Burkhead back in 2, I think the only move would be Webb up from the PS, or a street free agent.
Agreed with LB. They could use a Jamie Collins type (sans les freelancings )
You're probably right, but I wouldn't be shocked if BB made something like a 6th for a RB and a 7th, from a team out of it or a guy on a short leash - style move that he loves to do so often. Maybe someone like an Alfred Morris; but yes, you're right they'll probably just grab a street guy. I just worry about White getting overused, they could use a bigger back to absorb some hits and Michel obviously even if he comes back has injury concern.
 

Super Nomario

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You're probably right, but I wouldn't be shocked if BB made something like a 6th for a RB and a 7th, from a team out of it or a guy on a short leash - style move that he loves to do so often. Maybe someone like an Alfred Morris; but yes, you're right they'll probably just grab a street guy. I just worry about White getting overused, they could use a bigger back to absorb some hits and Michel obviously even if he comes back has injury concern.
The Patriots have six picks in the first three rounds next year, so late-round picks have even less value than usual. It's going to be tough for a 6th to crack this team in 2019. Could definitely see a move for an RB or a backup for Chung.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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Mar 24, 2008
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The Patriots have six picks in the first three rounds next year, so late-round picks have even less value than usual. It's going to be tough for a 6th to crack this team in 2019. Could definitely see a move for an RB or a backup for Chung.
And I'm sure when the draft rolls around, they'll just end up with 12 picks in the first 2 rounds in 2020.
 

DJnVa

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BREAKING: Broncos QB Chad Kelly was arrested early Tuesday on a charge of first-degree criminal trespassing in Englewood, Colo. He was taken to Arapahoe County Jail. Broncos are aware of the incident.

IN-NO-CENT!
 

Rook05

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Jul 18, 2005
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There’s a lot to love about this Chad Kelly story. Von Miller hosts a Halloween party every year at a Denver theater, and TMZ published it was a “cocaine themed” party. There’s a shot of Sanders dressed up like a Chappelle character and while it’s good tabloid material, they may have the wrong drug of choice for Kelly. Kelly reportedly entered a townhouse, sat down next to someone on their couch, and was generally unresponsive. The husband then chased him out of the house with a vacuum cleaner hose. The cops ID’d Kelly from security footage and located him outside the theater of the Miller party.

As the donkey turns....