I think that WE created that narrative.
Truth.
More truth.
2018 Patriots OTAs
- Thread starter ifmanis5
- Start date
Not sure that says much...it would be surprising if the CB's were NOT having a great day against Hoyer and Etling.
This is very likely a mutually agreed upon scenario with BB and Brady/Gronk that has been discussed and ironed out well in advance. Maybe it’s not ideal, but if they can work through it their way and field a competitive team, why should I care?
“He [BB] talks about, you think it's just an OTA in the spring time and it's not that important and all those things that probably could enter your mind. The truth is, this lays the foundation for the start of training camp and if you have a good training camp, it usually means a good start to the season,” Brady said, via Patriots.com. “A good start to the season leads to good position entering the second half of the season. Everything ends up having some significance to it. You’re not just out here running plays and going through different things that aren’t going to mean anything."
- Tom Brady
- Tom Brady
Given the 2-2 starts in both 2014 and 2017 and subsequent Super Bowl appearances, maybe he realized this wasn't true.
This is where I'm at right now. I haven't yet seen anything to tell me that all of this isn't largely demand driven by a down fan base in the wake is a disappointing Super Bowl loss.
I'm open to revising that stance with new data once things actually start happening, but thus far, I've seen more narrative than data points.
Do OTAs take place at Foxboro and is every other gym, track or field in the world closed while they do?
Also, various articles have noted that Brady missed some or all of OTAs from 2008-2010 as well. So this isn't the first time - only difference being back then there wasn't the media-created controversy about a supposed "rift" between Brady and Belichick that we haven't seen any actual evidence of (in terms of on-field results, anyway - I couldn't really give less of a shit whether they like each other personally).
Jokes aside - it’s sad and weird to me how many of our local sports reporters and personalities seem to root against our teams.
Well there’s the 2008 torn ACL and Brady playing 2010 with with a stress fracture in his foot. So some inactivity during this general time period would not surprise me.
Would I be surprised if B.B. gave Brady a pass on these OTAs and it’s nothing? No. B.B. almost never is going to explain himself to anyone.
Not would I be surprised if there is something to this.
None of the previous 19 offseasons have been like this one. Including the 2 that followed excruciatimg SB losses. Several people have noted it in several threads — this time seems different. You don’t have to go full Ben Volin on any of this to acknowledge that.
It would be surprising if TB half asses anything he thinks important.
Would I be surprised if B.B. gave Brady a pass on these OTAs and it’s nothing? No. B.B. almost never is going to explain himself to anyone.
Not would I be surprised if there is something to this.
None of the previous 19 offseasons have been like this one. Including the 2 that followed excruciatimg SB losses. Several people have noted it in several threads — this time seems different. You don’t have to go full Ben Volin on any of this to acknowledge that.
It would be surprising if TB half asses anything he thinks important.
True. But whatever motivates him to keep doing this at his age is likely to motivate him to show up whenever he shows up and kick everyone's ass like he always does.
Yeah, if there's one thing that Tom vs. Time showed it's that it kills him when he doesn't play at a high level. If, at his age, he's decided that this is what works now, I trust that. Because I feel pretty sure that at the end of the day, he's going to be harder on himself this season than we could ever be. He doesn't want to just be a top 15ish QB. He gets the benefit of the doubt on this until his performance actually dips.
Well didnt the same thing that motivated him to do this at his age last year also motivate him to show up to voluntary workouts back then?
So does he have that motivation any more or not? I am confused.
It motivates him till it doesnt. Part of what this signals to me is that TB has changed. Maybe its not a big change. Maybe its not a bad change. Maybe it will have consequences maybe it wont. But its a change, and we dont seem to know the reason.
Even though I am one of the more vocal posters so far that something is amiss with Brady I still dread the slew of "If he had been at OTAs he wouldnt have thrown that pick!" Agreed thats nonsense.
My bigger worry is how this impacts the other players and how they work with Brady. Someone above mentioned the "Trust in WRs" thing for instance.
So does he have that motivation any more or not? I am confused.
It motivates him till it doesnt. Part of what this signals to me is that TB has changed. Maybe its not a big change. Maybe its not a bad change. Maybe it will have consequences maybe it wont. But its a change, and we dont seem to know the reason.
Even though I am one of the more vocal posters so far that something is amiss with Brady I still dread the slew of "If he had been at OTAs he wouldnt have thrown that pick!" Agreed thats nonsense.
My bigger worry is how this impacts the other players and how they work with Brady. Someone above mentioned the "Trust in WRs" thing for instance.
He can be just as motivated to reach a result, but choosing a slightly different path. [making shit up alert] "I worked 'x' much with Alex last year and was pretty damn great. Maybe I'll work with him even more during voluntary OTA time and be greater."
As always, on point.
The question, I guess, is what are great days against Hoyer and Ettling worth — especially they are going up against 49ers vintage Hoyer?
Fools gold?
A lot of responsibility. Probably communicating by March if he'll be in for the following year.
But you'll also note: we have absolutely no idea what he has communicated to the team. Those who know (Kraft, BB, McDaniels) don't say. Those who say (given our history with the boston media) clearly don't know.
You haven't made an answer, you've punted on it. Saying "BB would have made it work" ignores basic math. You and I may not be cap experts, but people like Miguel are, and they came to the considered opinion that the >$42M price to tag JG while keeping TB would have been a crippling blow to the team's ability to field a competitive roster. There simply weren't enough available obvious cap casualties.
That was the shared conclusion of the football cognoscenti around here last Nov 1st, if you recall: faced with a surely unsolvable cap problem in trying to retain a backup QB on a franchise tag (that doesn't just sound ridiculous to you?), and the fact that Brady had proven he was healthy and effective and likely to remain that way for 2018 (barring another Pollarding), he chose to get something for JG at the time, rather than nothing after the season. That is the Occam's Razor conclusion, because it means that we don't have to presume BB is a moron, nor presume that there was some bizarre cloak-and-dagger bullshit going on. Anyone pushing an alternative theory has the burden of proof otherwise, Seth Wickersham included.
Wait, so your counterproposal to BB's actions was, punt on the 2018 season, and waste one of the few remaining performant years of your HOF QB (who might well retire in disgust), for the sake of retaining your looks-good-but-no-sure-thing backup? Accept a 4-12 season and a roster with several massive holes on it, for the sake of keeping Garoppolo around?
Playing for the $23.2M 2018 QB franchise tag number, while riding the pine, Garoppolo would have displaced at least 4-5 impact players - starters - from being affordable under the cap. Did you like Jordan Richards getting crunch time plays in the super bowl? Were you enjoying our CB play? Want more Cyrus Jones and less Stephon Gilmore? How did our DL look? Because you should expect that quality play or worse, with the budget cut by $23M. Go look at PatsCap or Spotrac and see what that buys you, because you might not feel it thoroughly enough if you're saying this.
Such a decision, made clearly without regard to competing in 2018, would infuriate both Brady and the entire fanbase, because it would clearly be a move they didn't have to make. The Pats would have had the rarest commodity in the game, a top QB, and had him for half his true market value. And instead of riding that to as much glory as possible, you would have them choose to plow under that rich crop, piss away a perfectly plausible season of contention, and sow the seeds for what might, several years down the line, you hope, become something nearly as good as what you've got already?
Teams in our position ride out that position as long as they can, for both business and competitive reasons. Only when they hit the end of the line, as Seattle did after this past year, do they truly blow it up and start thinking about how to build the next contender. Belichick is known for retooling a year early rather than a year late, and often wisely so. Franchising Garoppolo to spur his team sucking, and/or his still-productive HOF QB retiring on an incredibly sour note, would be Redskins-level dumb. I can't believe that's a serious suggestion.
To address a couple of points made here, I'll start with this link (Volin warning applies):
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/patriots/2018/05/21/skipping-otas-tom-brady-leaves-himself-open-criticism/Dtg1YukHMCluayFtppBQRI/story.html?event=event12
Also, no GM is going to dismantle a team that nearly won a Super Bowl in order to keep their backup QB that has played all of 6 meaningful quarters. They had to make a choice, a difficult one that was forced upon them through no real fault of their own. We do need to simply get over the trade.
Finally, I made the comment about Brady being 16th is salary among QB's. I took a closer look at Spotrac, and I should clarify this a bit. Compared to his peers, Brady is
- 11th in cap hit at $22M. Of course, cap hits can be manipulated up or down for various reasons. That's why JG is #1. Rounding out the top 10 are Stafford, Carr, Flacco, Luck, Brees, Cousins, Wilson (Russell, not Marc), Roethlisberger, and Eli.
- 5th in base salary at $14M, behind Cousins, Rodgers, Wilson, Cam Newton, and only just ahead of Dalton and Alex Smith.
- 18th in total cash at $15M.
- 16th in "average contract value" at $20.5M.
- 17th in "practical guaranteed salary" at $28M, behind notables such as Ryan Tannehill ($45M) and Mitchell Trubisky ($29M). Looking at Spotrac, you can see that Brady is being paid guaranteed money similar to that of Jared Goff, Blake Bortles, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, and Marcus Mariotta.
Just FYI.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/patriots/2018/05/21/skipping-otas-tom-brady-leaves-himself-open-criticism/Dtg1YukHMCluayFtppBQRI/story.html?event=event12
In 2008, he was coming off an injury he suffered in the AFCCG, one which likely impacted him during the infamous 18-1 game. In 2009, we was still rehabbing his torn ACL and would not have done much football anyway. And while he missed the OTA's in 2010, he followed that up with an MVP season.
Also, no GM is going to dismantle a team that nearly won a Super Bowl in order to keep their backup QB that has played all of 6 meaningful quarters. They had to make a choice, a difficult one that was forced upon them through no real fault of their own. We do need to simply get over the trade.
Finally, I made the comment about Brady being 16th is salary among QB's. I took a closer look at Spotrac, and I should clarify this a bit. Compared to his peers, Brady is
- 11th in cap hit at $22M. Of course, cap hits can be manipulated up or down for various reasons. That's why JG is #1. Rounding out the top 10 are Stafford, Carr, Flacco, Luck, Brees, Cousins, Wilson (Russell, not Marc), Roethlisberger, and Eli.
- 5th in base salary at $14M, behind Cousins, Rodgers, Wilson, Cam Newton, and only just ahead of Dalton and Alex Smith.
- 18th in total cash at $15M.
- 16th in "average contract value" at $20.5M.
- 17th in "practical guaranteed salary" at $28M, behind notables such as Ryan Tannehill ($45M) and Mitchell Trubisky ($29M). Looking at Spotrac, you can see that Brady is being paid guaranteed money similar to that of Jared Goff, Blake Bortles, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, and Marcus Mariotta.
Just FYI.
The only actual change that can be proven with what is widely known is that Alex G is no longer welcome at the Pats’ facilities. So if Brady and Gronk spent the off-day at TB12 instead of Gillette- that is probably a driving force in the action.
As long as Brady plays great and the team competes for a SB - none of this will really matter.
So maybe it isn’t that Brady changed, but rather his preferred workout isn’t allowed at Gillette anymore.
But doesn’t this just prove the point that it really doesn’t matter much if Brady attends OTAs or not?
Drama (real or manufactured) aside, the silver lining to Brady being absent is Etling getting more reps. That can't be a bad thing.
I don’t know that one year proves anything, but I’d have to refresh my recollection on the degree of churn in 2010 over the previous year. Got lots of new pieces on offense.
Crossen had zero INTs last year, so a pick today is good.
A couple other things to consider re: Brady missing OTAs. 1) Down the stretch last year, he was missing Wednesday practices a lot. This is pretty common for veterans on other teams - Tony Romo didn't practice Wednesdays like ever - but NE has not typically done this. Brady also missed a bunch of time with the hand issue before the Jacksonville game. Missing OTA might be consistent with a pattern of Brady wanting to save his bullets for live action to the greatest extent possible. 2) Belichick has made exceptions for players before. Parcells famously let Lawrence Taylor get away with a lot when Belichick was DC on those Giants teams. Roman Phifer used to fly to LA after games and only return for Wednesday practices, missing team meetings Mon / Tue. In Junior Seau's last couple years he took off half the season and just showed up down the stretch.
2010 had a ton of skill player churn. You had a completely new TE group with Crumper, Gronk, and Hernandez. Plus they traded away Moss after four games, though Branch was a fresh face when they brought him back. Faulk got hurt and they brought in Woodhead off the street. This year is comparatively stable (or it appears that way now).
I’m ok with Tom missing the first 6 games of the regular season (along with Gronk) Save them for the playoffs. But it is a little strange what is going on in Foxboro these days.
Our worry is the SB record setting QB aged 41 missing some OTAs but still training to get in shape?
Id rather know if the defense showed up to OTAs, I think they need a few more reps.
Id rather know if the defense showed up to OTAs, I think they need a few more reps.
So now we know. Kraft and Brady are teaming up to undermine Belichick. Its just a matter of time before a pissed-off Belichick teams up with Barzini.
No matter what happens, people do need to keep in mind how freaking hard it has been traditionally for the losing team to make it back to the SB.
Not many teams have bucked that trend.
Michael Hurley had a good visual.
Not many teams have bucked that trend.
Michael Hurley had a good visual.
Taking the salary cap era (1994+) into account, the average record of all those teams in the following year is... almost exactly 9-7.
And the time the Pats lost the SB and TB played a full year, they went back to the AFCCG. Ignore missing the playoffs in 2008 after the Scottish game.
So we are back to 'as long as TB plays well this team has a good chance' and that tweet is kinda silly.
So we are back to 'as long as TB plays well this team has a good chance' and that tweet is kinda silly.
Most of those SB losers did not return to play in the AFC East the following year.
The Dolphins and Bills figure to be, short term, worse than last year. The Jets?
The almost 20 year spectacular run of sustained excellence has been fueled by GOATs and continuity. It has been fueled as well by a pitiable AFC East.
The Dolphins and Bills figure to be, short term, worse than last year. The Jets?
The almost 20 year spectacular run of sustained excellence has been fueled by GOATs and continuity. It has been fueled as well by a pitiable AFC East.
From 2001-2017 the Pats won 77.8% of their games in the division (81-23), against the rest of the NFL they won 76.2% of their games (128-40). Maybe the rest of the NFL sucks as well. Data from 2001-2016, I added the 2017 data.
The myth of the Patsy AFC East will never die. It’s one of those zombie lies that never goes out of style.
Or maybe having a fairly easy divisional schedule every year — and Buffalo, Miami and the Jets at home every year, virtual gimme games — bolsters their performance in non-division games.
This wasn’t intended as a criticism. You play the schedule you play, and if other division foes suck, it’s on them.
But I’m not going to be concerned about the dreaded SB loser hangover when they are highly likely to go 5-1 over 37.5 % of their schedule, and when Miami and Buffalo are highly likely to take a step back.
Edit — and in any case that chart does not deliver dreadful news. 8 of the last 10 losers made the playoffs the following year, and the 2008 Pats, one of the two that didn’t, went 11-5.
Making the playoffs then losing would not in my view represent a hangover. Houston and Jax are highly likely to be better this year than last; KC is still KC, Pitts still Pitts.
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I picked up something really useful from Chuck Noll, so eff you and the horse you rode in on.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/05/24/bill-belichick-has-running-back-sony-michel-wearing-no-51-in-practice/
He’s the best and the League the worst.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/05/24/bill-belichick-has-running-back-sony-michel-wearing-no-51-in-practice/
He’s the best and the League the worst.
The Chiefs probably take a step back with a first-year starter at QB, and the Texans’ second-half problems ran deeper than Watson’s injury, but I agree with the broader point — the gap between the Pats and the rest of the AFC has narrowed, and the Pats weren’t 2007-level dominant to start with. Jacksonville, in particular, is close to a co-favorite — my money’s on the Pats in a single game in January (because TB12 >>>>>>> Bortles), but they’re the closest rival the Pats have had since Peyton Manning was playing for Denver.
We'll see. This time last offseason, Oakland was the up-and-coming team the Pats had to watch out for and Jacksonville had been a joke for nearly a decade. I won't be surprised to see Jacksonville take a step back - and maybe someone unexpected take a step forward.
Can somebody explain a rationale for this rule? Are OTAs fair game for other teams’ scouting?? Because, honestly, I cannot fathom why it matters whether players are wearing numbers or not.
The Boston Sports media would only ever be satisfied if every single team in Boston lost every game they played while giving outrageous soundbites and quotes every day. Preferably while having a lot of brown and black skinned players to scapegoat.
You forgot all while handing out lengthy, 9 figure contracts to guys past their prime.