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2018 Yankees Offseason Discussion

Discussion in 'Yankees Discussion' started by jon abbey, Oct 10, 2018 at 3:22 AM.

  1. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    This is a good question and a topic I'll go into in depth at some point, but some really rough numbers have them around $130M after arb awards and the first luxury tax level line is $206M. If I were Hal, I would give Cashman permission to at least go to the higher level if he wanted (the one BOS went through over the summer, in the $230M range?), but of course there are longer term factors also, Hicks and Gregorius are FAs after 2019 for instance so extensions could be involved also.

    Honestly with the tax rate reset, Cashman might have permission to spend whatever he thinks makes the most sense and NY will deal with whatever penalties from there, but of course I have no actual idea here. 25 year old superstars like Machado and Harper almost never hit FA these days though, it's going to be interesting.

    Edit: Crosspost with Crow, who said what I said in a lot fewer words.
     
  2. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I will be stunned if they don't deal Gray, especially since he will probably be making $8 or $9M and NY can use that in much better ways, but I wanted to trade him last winter and was stunned already when he didn't get moved at the deadline, so who knows. MIL still makes the most sense, they could use SPs and they have his old Vanderbilt pitching coach there. OAK too, but the last thing we need is a rejuvenated Sonny Gray coming back to haunt us in the last year of his deal...
     
  3. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    Well yeah, but that $88 covers Stanton, Tanaka, Ellsbury and Chapman. With an opt out for $2M on Gardner in there. Almost the entire rest of the roster is either a FA or arb eligible outside of a handful of kids like Torres, Judge, Sanchez and Andujar. That’s a nice base to start with but also a lot if holes to fill in a FA market that doesn’t look like it’s going to pan out as expected.

    You guys had a great year, I think it’d be foolish to fire Boone (with full disclosure I didn’t see what you saw on a daily basis, it the guy won 100 games as a rookie manager). I think you’ll likely cash in some prospect currency for a starter, sign one big FA, maybe two and then fill in holes by retaining guys.

    I wholeheartedly hope you rely on Luke Voit as your primary 1B tho, as a Sox fan anyway

    Good to have the rivalry back!!
     
  4. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    They have eight of nine lineup spots filled if 2 of 3 of Andujar/Voit/Bird have spots, plus Clint Frazier, so they're pretty set on the position player side except for a new 3B.

    Pitching they have a bunch of uncertainty, Severino/Tanaka in the rotation and Tarpley/Holder/Green/Betances/Chapman at the back of the bullpen. They've kept all/most of their top prospects but dealt quite a few from the next tiers and so I think Cashman will be hesitant to move too many more unless he is really forced to. They still have a ton of high-level pitching prospects but not much left on the position player side after promotions and deals, with the major exception of Clint Frazier, who could be an Andujar-level impact bat once he gets past his concussion issues. He easily led the International League in OPS this year in the time he played and he just turned 24.
     
  5. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

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    Not in the rotation. Severino was a 4.8 bWAR pitcher this year, Tanaka 2.9, and it goes downhill from there. The Sox’ top 4 ranged from 3 to 7 bWAR. Houston’s is anchored by two guys in the 5-6 range. Starting pitching determined this series just now and the Yankees didn’t have it.
     
  6. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    Supplemented by the highest WAR bullpen of all-time according to FanGraphs. The weakness of the SP could have and should have been managed better.
     
  7. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    Not really arguing that you guys have a bright future. Just wondering how content you are with that combo at 1B (how different is Voit from a Pearce, end of day?) and banking on Machado to come play third seems silly to me.

    Main point was if you want to say 8/9, you have to pick up Gardner’s option and then you’re not at $88 anymore. Everyone else costs more on top and the FAs run the risk of leaving. And then you need to address the pitching staff with a weak field.

    You have it on us in flexibility, but I’d argue that if we resign Kimbrel and add some bullpen pieces with the Pablo money, we’re still ahead.

    Anyway, not trying to be combative and realize fresh wound and all. Not poking just earnest back and forth.
     
  8. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

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    Sure, which makes them a very interesting team. I suppose we have seen bullpens play increased roles, and maybe that would have worked if Boone were sharper, but it’s tempting to read this series as a counter argument to the bullpen strategy. The Sox’ bullpen is their weakness, but three strong starts and it didn’t matter.
     
  9. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    No one is talking about how NY's team will compare to BOS's next year here, there are way too many unknowns for that. Also not sure what Gardner has to do with anything, I have an OF of Stanton/Hicks/Judge with Andujar at DH and Frazier as a 4th OF (this combo is weak in CF behind Hicks, Judge played there once this year and Frazier some in the minors). Add in Sanchez, some combo of Voit/Andujar/Bird for 1st (Frazier can also DH), Torres and Didi, and that is 8 out of 9.

    I don't get the Machado comment either, I think he would jump at the chance to play 3B in NY. Apologies for linking a Heyman column on a Boras client but I think it's still worth doing in this case:

    https://fancredsports.com/articles/inside-baseball-machado-maybe-harper-like-yankee

    Also in general, I feel like people have misunderstood NY's plan and overall position in recent years. In August 2016, they sold off pieces because they were way way way behind BOS and CLE and HOU in terms of putting long-term pieces in place, they had literally none of their young core in place before then (Severino didn't win a spot for good until the next spring training, Sanchez and Judge first came up then). Anyone claiming that NY has jumped past any of those other three teams at any point since is mistaken, the plan since August 2016 has been to put as many pieces in place as possible for this upcoming winter and then try to fill in where needed. We haven't seen Cashman's full plan yet, but by spring training we will. That still doesn't mean that they'll have passed any or all of the three other powerhouses, but they will have taken their best shot to build a team that can.
     
  10. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Also no need to go into BOS specifics here, but since you broached it, Sandoval is still getting paid next year ($18.5M) and a $5M buyout in 2020.
     
  11. gedman211

    gedman211 Member SoSH Member

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    I think Andujar has a better chance of becoming a competent defender than Sanchez does. The gap between Sanchez and Leon/Vasquez was on full display this whole series. It's not a matter of if Sanchez becomes a DH, it's when. Great teams generally prioritize defense at the catching position. A porous backstop could affect the morale of an entire team. I don't believe I've seen Sanchez play first, so maybe that's an option also.
     
  12. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    I’m not sure what you mean...Sanchez caught a great series. You could be right, but this series was not a good example.
     
  13. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Yeah, Sanchez led the AL in defensive runs saved over some stretch of September with six, he will always have occasional issues with letting pitches get by but is very good at the other defensive components of the game. He had a bad year in general for whatever reason, but he is a catcher.
     
  14. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    And Andujar has zero chance of ever being acceptable defensively at 3B IMO, he has multiple issues but the major one is he has the range of a pumpkin, and that’s not going to improve.
     
  15. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    "Miguel Andujar has the fourth-worst DRS for a third baseman on record, and the fifth-worst UZR. on grounders and liners in the vicinity of third base, the Yankees have allowed baseball's highest batting average (.382, with a league average of .224)."

    Those stats started in 2003/2004, so 4th/5th worst in the last 15 years.

    Also, from the comment thread there:

    "Yankees have turned 9 DPs from 3B this season, the lowest total for any full team season since 1963 Houston Colt .45s."

     
  16. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    I am not sure how I feel about Boone, but I will say I am supremely confident in Brian Cashman. This winter is what he has been planning for and I am glad he is at the helm.

    And with Cashman the little moves he makes are often as significant as the big moves he makes.
     
  17. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Much to the sox disgust, I wonder if the Yanks would be interested in bringing Eovaldi back.
     
  18. TheYaz67

    TheYaz67 Member SoSH Member

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    I presume they will give that a look, in addition to trades, to address by far their most glaring need - better starting pitching. Tanaka only throws 150~ innings per year (and is at risk of his arm falling off at any point), and if you bring CC back you will be lucky to get 150 IP out of him. Happ threw 177 innings last year, which was his second highest total in a 11 year career....

    I know it is a good bullpen, but having a whole bunch of starters who are old/injury risks/only throw 150 IP per year is eventually going to catch up with that bullpen, so I assume Cashman will start there and then address other needs. Also, while you can pound the living daylights out of the O's, Royals, CWS and others in the regular season with your great HR hitting prowess and dominant bullpen, relying on only those two facets to carry you through the playoffs clearly does not work usually if you also have shaky starters, which the Yanks just saw....

    Does seem they have sent alot of middle tier prospects out in the last year or two on trades (and gotten some good ones back on other trades admittedly) and don't want to part with their top prospects, so I wonder how much Cashman actually has to try and land some top talent at SP via trades - I guess we will find out!
     
  19. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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  20. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    No Kershaw please. His back problems mixed with this low velocity scare the hell out of me.
     
  21. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    There are only so many Verlander/Sale level aces in baseball, maybe 10 at the most. You can wait for the rare occasions when one becomes available, you can try to develop your own, and in the meantime you can try to back up what you have with the best bullpen possible. Everyone knew NY's rotation was their biggest weakness coming into the season, and NY talked to PIT quite a bit about Cole, but they wanted Gleyber or Andujar and Cashman didn't want to give up either of them for 2 years of Cole, which I think was probably the right call. The rotation will certainly be the priority this offseason, and this year Cashman has a lot more money to spend.

    Can we keep some of the BOS-related discussion out of this thread if possible? This series didn't change what NY should do this winter one bit, they had/have the same issues going forward as they would if they had won the World Series or gotten blown out by Oakland in the coin flip game.
     
  22. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Dream Scenario for Yankees
    Sign Machado to play 3rd, trade Andujar/Sheffield and 2-3 other prospects for Madison Bumgarner, sign Adam Ottavino(native NYer) and sign Patrick Corbin.
     
  23. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    That is a lot to give up for one year of Bumgarner, plus I doubt SF would move him at almost any price until the deadline and maybe not even then.
     
  24. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Quoted from the Post Mortem thread:

    Where is Daniel Murphy playing, 1B? DH? I don't see the need or fit there, but I guess it depends on what else they do.

    Stanton has a no-trade clause but I'm sure would approve a deal to the Dodgers, they have exciting catching prospects to spare and maybe one of them could be a Romine upgrade to pair with Sanchez.
     
  25. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Murphy DH's. With Stanton gone, there's an opening, and he's a "professional hitter" that would probably be terrific in Yankee Stadium. Yes, Stanton to the Dodgers for a catching prospect and a pitcher maybe. Andujar could fetch a ton, I think.
     
  26. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Oh, I see, you are moving both Stanton and Andujar in this scenario? So Clint Frazier plays LF? Gardner is still good defensively but not good enough of a hitter any more to keep (even as a 4th OF I am skeptical) and the only real OF prospect in the system is Florial who had a bit of a lost year and is probably a 2021 option at this point.

    For me the big strength of NY currently (especially with Robertson/Britton as FAs) is that they go nine deep in the lineup at full health, which is very rare (I will always think of the 2003 Red Sox when I think of nine deep). I don't think you start cutting into that unless you have relatively equal offensive replacements, NY is just a Machado signing away from this potential lineup:

    Hicks CF
    Judge RF
    Machado 3B
    Stanton LF
    Gregorius SS
    Andujar DH
    Sanchez C
    Voit/Bird 1B
    Torres 2B

    Frazier can also DH if Andujar plays 1B, that is a crazy set of offensive players to throw out there, and all in their twenties still (Hicks turns 30 next October, I think he is the oldest). I don't think NY moves anyone on that list (except Bird obviously) if they don't have a relatively equal replacement offensively in mind.
     
  27. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    You’re correct, I apologize, I should have said Hanley’s money, not Pablo’s. Brain fart.

    My post you’re responding to isn’t quoting you it’s quoting Crow, so yes, I don’t think my comment about Gardner is on topic when discussing salary commitment (as your OF wasn’t addressed there).

    As to position switch, I don’t get your assurance he’d ‘jump at the chance’ to play 3B for the Yankees, when he’s been adamant about playing SS and played the vast majority of his games there after going to LA. I disagree on the Heyman article being worth quoting but reasonable minds can differ; a ‘friend’ saying he’d do it doesn’t carry a lot of weight with me more than to raise his price tag, as you yourself put it Heyman is a Boras mouthpiece. Nor do I think Harper cares about who his dad rooted for (why wouldn’t he just wear 7? I’m pretty sure he could have gotten it before/fromMark Derosa after Pudge retires and he came up).

    You guys certainly have plenty of dollars to spend, so that very well may end up being the final decider. But you also have not much locked in and some holes to fill. Counting on Machado and Harper (as someone else proposed him moving to 1B) switching positions because of ‘Yankees’ strikes me as a bit smug, but again I’m sincerely not trying to be antagonistic by saying that. I’m just talking it out.

    I think Cashman is great as a GM but it’s tough to see a plan at times. He claims they want get under and doesn’t resign Cano, then blows through and signs Ellsbury and Tanaka. The front office is schizophrenic and has been for a long time; it’s a little hard to see a plan.
     
  28. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Cashman had a bunch of rough years going into 2016, although he did have Judge. Severino and Sanchez on deck at the time (plus Andujar not far behind and some others). There is no question they badly fucked up their first run at getting under the luxury tax, it was worth trying but they needed to jettison the attempt maybe two years earlier when almost all of their pitching prospects had bad or lost seasons.

    This is the reason their new plan which began when they were swept in TB in Aug 2016 and Hal signed off on it (and this current plan couldn't be much more obvious, so not sure what you mean there) has been to put as many pieces in place by this offseason and then try to fill in the gaps. No one (intelligent) at any point has said this is enough to definitely catch BOS (who had so many young core pieces in place at the time) or HOU (same) but he is at least putting them in the general vicinity. There is no question Cashman did not do a great job for a bunch of years preceding Aug 2016, but IMO he has been killing it since then, with the big exception of Boone (again, what he did in the playoffs was the same thing he did all year, just magnified a hundred times more by the situation).
     
  29. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I have rarely been more sure of a free agent's decision without any specific knowledge as that Machado will sign with NY and be their new 3B, happily, but we will see soon enough. It is just too good a fit in every way.
     
  30. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Also this continues to be the busiest few work weeks I've had in years (in a good way) but this is the thread I have been waiting to start since Aug 2016 so excuse me if I am even more gung-ho than usual in it.
     
  31. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    I’m on mobile so tough to bold stuff, but you said it yourself when you questioned what I meant. There’s still Steinbrenner’s involved. So they can sign off on any plan you like but they have pretty short shelf lives. The plan may seem obvious but it’s also not set in stone. You know this. I’m not sure what two years has proven on that front, but hey, it’s your team and you follow more daily.

    I don’t question as man as a GM I question those above meddling. Cashman, only thing I question is why he’s put up with it so long. He’s a great GM and could go anywhere he wanted, tomorrow. I honestly would love to see him in a smaller market to see what he can do without an open checkbook, because I think he’d kill it.

    As to your assurance on Muchado, well, good luck with that.
     
  32. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    I'm gonna take a break from this thread and the subforum. These posts are frustratingly misinformed and read like something from 20 years ago. Not something you'd hear after the Yankees just had the most successful 2 year rebuild imaginable which saw payroll cut by $60m, wins increase, playoff success, farm system jump to top 2, superstar young kids breaking out, and complete roster flexibility take shape. Meanwhile, the Sox have a barren farm and zero payroll flexibility with the top luxury threshold. Yes, they're a great team who also happened to have 2 MVP candidates and a CY young candidate in the same year. To your good luck, I say the same to you next year.
     
  33. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    He has to be the primary target this offseason.

    Also, I love that he doesn’t strikeout that much. I imagine the Dodgers will make a big push to keep him.
     
  34. Just a bit outside

    Just a bit outside Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    If Seager comes back as expected I don’t think the Dodgers will be in on Machado. I think it comes down to
    Phillies and Yankees. Yankees if he wants New York, Phillies if he wants to play shortstop.
     
  35. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    That seems right and my impression is he will be fine with either in the right situation, plus Didi is only under contract through 2019, so who knows what could happen.
     
  36. The Allented Mr Ripley

    The Allented Mr Ripley holden Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Why are you so sure he won't end up with the Yankees? I'm a Sox fan and I assume it's a foregone conclusion that Machado signs there. They have gobs of money to spend and he fills a legitimate need. What other teams will be suitors, and what makes them better bets than the Yankees to land him? The Dodgers aren't re-signing him, that's for sure.
     
  37. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    What I think will be one of the most interesting things to observe this offseason is to see how quickly people sign. We all know that last season was the slowest moving offseason in history. But this is the offseason people have been waiting for and it makes some sense that players and teams may want to reach agreements early. For example, if the Yankees view Machado as their top target, it make sense that they just drop a 300+ million contract in front of him on Thanksgiving Day.
     
  38. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    And then Machado goes into the Sons of Kevin Maas chat room to see how he would like the NYY fans . . .
     
  39. bankshot1

    bankshot1 Member SoSH Member

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    Boone in presser: Didi to have Tommy John for injured right elbow hurt in ALDS game 1 or 2.
     
  40. Max Power

    Max Power thai good. you like shirt? SoSH Member

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    The free agents from last year just weren't that good or young. Teams held out for a long time, and looking at the performances they got, they were right to do so. Top talent is better and younger this year and their market will develop quickly, but the older guys will have to wait it out again.

    Machado will get his dump truck full of money from the Yankees and they'll trade Andujar and some of their prospects away for a pitcher. It makes too much sense not to happen.
     
  41. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Yeah, this is a separate thread, but now they're even more likely to go hard after Machado, if that was possible. ARGH.
     
  42. bankshot1

    bankshot1 Member SoSH Member

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    I was going to start a new thread, but stuck it in here as it seems it should have an impact on off-season news, ie. Machado.
     
  43. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    No surprise here but a bit surprising to see Cashman so up front about this:

    Marc Carig‏Verified account @MarcCarig
    Cashman says he’ll be seeking a trade for Gray, for his sake and the sake of the Yankees. So, on a day when Cashman was pretty guarded about offseason, he was clear on Sonny Gray. If he finds a trade for him, he’s getting moved out of here.
     
  44. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Sonny Gray to the Brewers for Jonathan Schoop might be a good fit all around, both have one year left on their deals at similar money. Schoop to 2B, Gleyber to SS, Machado to 3B, Andujar to DH or elsewhere.
     
  45. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    Yeah, MIL has a lot of interesting pieces. Honestly, I would be OK with having Machado and Hechevarria on the left side of the infield until Didi is ready.
     
  46. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    It’s not that I’m so sure he wont* - it’s not like it would shock me - but I’m also not so sure he will* and I’m far from thinking it’s a foregone conclusion. He’s been pretty adamant about not wanting to play third and to go back to short - and with today’s news about Didi, maybe the calculus is changed and they walk away from Didi to make it happen. Maybe they throw enough money at him to change his mind, it’s not out of the realm, but even the Heyman/Boras piece, the headline even gives you a more likely landing spot - Philly.

    I know it seems like I’m stirring the pot or pouring salt in wounds and I assure everyone I’m not. I just don’t think it’s any more than rumors and, yes, some arrogance. The days that the Yankees could overpay anyone they wanted or they were some special landing spot to guarantee a ticket are over. Everyone can come to the table now on FAs, with the way revenue sharing has changed from the 90s/00s.

    I could see him going to the Phillies, Nats, Brewers. If he’s ok playing third, how do you take the Dodgers out or Braves or Cubs? There’s plenty of teams with the money to pay him.
     
  47. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    This isn’t a dick waving contest I’m trying to start. It’s a conversation about the status of both franchises. If you want to take your ball and go home, knock yourself out. Otherwise grow up.
     
  48. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    In his defense, you've put a lot of half-assed stuff into this thread so far, so maybe you could tone it down a bit too. And this is actually a conversation about the state of just one franchise, although of course it will always leak over.
     
  49. sean1562

    sean1562 Member SoSH Member

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    I just can't imagine Sonny being worth anything to anybody, why would the Brewers trade Schoop for him? Pomeranz and Gray basically had the same year, and Pomeranz was even better than Gray in 2017. I would be surprised to see Sonny returning anything of actual value, everyone knows you want to trade him.
     
  50. sean1562

    sean1562 Member SoSH Member

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