2018 Yankees Offseason Discussion
- Thread starter jon abbey
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I can't argue with a hunch, but 3/39 is not really a big commitment and he is a good fit on paper, especially being a lefty. Also he is not really blocking anyone and NY doesn't have great prospect impact reliever depth right now, I will bump the bullpen thread in a minute.
Other than the money aspect, I'm not sure performance is gonna be an issue. He's one of 3 bullpen aces on the team with a likely 4th incoming. Cashman loves to stockpile arms in the pen.
If he returns to form it’s a steal. Obviously they know his medicals. I wouldn’t lose sleep over it, I think it’s a good signing, especially if the team can bail after two years. It’s a lot for a setup guy, sure, but I’m not sure you’ll regret it.
To me there were a handful of guys right around the same level this winter, Kimbrel will still presumably end up with the biggest deal (love that NL East dogfight) but I think NY was and is in on everyone below that and I trust that they know about a billion times more than me about those guys specifically, so will target the ones who are the best bets/fits.
Cashman has said all winter he expects to add two relievers, and I have assumed that means one lefty/one righty if possible since the only lefty they have besides Chapman is Tarpley, who looks promising but you prefer as AAA depth to start the season if you can. So now Britton is your lefty, and NYC native Ottavino will hopefully be the righty, I have Herrera as an option behind that and then it seems to drop off real fast (Cody Allen!).
Also this is the second action this week to show they (thankfully) don't expect to play Andujar at 3B anymore, first essentially guaranteeing Tulo the SS spot until Didi is back (for a few months anyway) and now signing a lefty reliever who leads MLB in ground ball percentage every year. So now 3 of NY's rotation and 2 of their top 3 relievers are lefties, this is why you want Machado at 3B gobbling up anything near him and not my man Miggy Two Bags, whose nickname unfortunately applies to both sides of the ball ('past a tilting Andujar').
Cashman has said all winter he expects to add two relievers, and I have assumed that means one lefty/one righty if possible since the only lefty they have besides Chapman is Tarpley, who looks promising but you prefer as AAA depth to start the season if you can. So now Britton is your lefty, and NYC native Ottavino will hopefully be the righty, I have Herrera as an option behind that and then it seems to drop off real fast (Cody Allen!).
Also this is the second action this week to show they (thankfully) don't expect to play Andujar at 3B anymore, first essentially guaranteeing Tulo the SS spot until Didi is back (for a few months anyway) and now signing a lefty reliever who leads MLB in ground ball percentage every year. So now 3 of NY's rotation and 2 of their top 3 relievers are lefties, this is why you want Machado at 3B gobbling up anything near him and not my man Miggy Two Bags, whose nickname unfortunately applies to both sides of the ball ('past a tilting Andujar').
This is when we remind people of some key off-field parts of Ottavino, grew up in Park Slope, went to his first Yankee game at 7, currently trains in Harlem a mile or two from Yankee Stadium and is best friends with Tommy Kahnle from their COL days. Here he is with his dad in 1995:
https://www.denverpost.com/2018/05/06/adam-ottavino-new-york-state-of-mind/
https://www.denverpost.com/2018/05/06/adam-ottavino-new-york-state-of-mind/
I don't see anything not to like about Britton for two or three years. The money looks fair and the Yankees have some familiarity and a pretty good idea of what they are getting.
And this is when we remind people that they were saying the same things about Patrick Corbin...until he signed with the Nats.This is when we remind people of some key off-field parts of Ottavino, grew up in Park Slope, went to his first Yankee game at 7, currently trains in Harlem a mile or two from Yankee Stadium and is best friends with Tommy Kahnle from their COL days. Here he is with his dad in 1995:
https://www.denverpost.com/2018/05/06/adam-ottavino-new-york-state-of-mind/
If another team offers Ottavino more money/years/a closer!s role, none of what you posted about may matter in the slightest. Tima will tell.
Corbin doesn't train in Harlem, but more importantly, WAS offered Corbin $40M more than NY was willing to go (6/140 to 5/100), that's probably around what Ottavino's full deal will be. NY has been rumored in on Ottavino constantly for weeks now and again tonight, same as they were Britton, we'll see soon enough as you said.
And it pushes everyone else back a notch, Tarpley specifically, curious to see what the opening day Scranton pitching staff ends up as.
No obvious 40 man spot move like Cole was for Tulo, I am guessing maybe Higashioka who no one will probably claim anyway, and if they do, they have Lavernaway on a minor league deal and can try to trade for an upgrade which they really should do anyway.
And its secret Chapman insurance in case his knee isn't better. If he has the same knee issues as last year, he's useless.
Yeah, not that I know anything, but not thriilled if he didn't get that surgically fixed this winter and I didn't hear anything about that.
Ottavino is shaping up to be one of the more interesting relief signings of the off-season (mostly as one of the last players unsigned).
My understanding is that he doesnt care about closing (a strong point in his favor IMO, I’d rather the Sox sign a relief ace than someone who has to pitch the 9th), but he’s not going to take a hometown discount either. He’s been in baseball long enough to understand it as a business and is not going to compromise his one big guaranteed FA payday.
I’d be very surprised if anyone got him for less than the Yankees signed Britton for (which still seems pretty reasonable - the relief market isn’t nuts; I wonder if Chapman isn’t the high water mark for RP contracts for awhile).
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Britton or Brasier as your 8th innning guy? I would have loved to see the Sox take a flyer on Brittons bounce back years. Heck he could close at a fraction of what Kimbrel wants.
Maybe a fraction of what he wants, but possibly not far off from what he ends up getting.
I think Ottavino will get around the same basic deal of 3/39, maybe 3/36. I had Britton at 4/52 and Ottavino at 3/39 a few days ago, somewhere around there would be my guess.
Kimbrel is gonna be around 4/64ish if I had to guess. His market won't fully develop until Ottavino signs but I hardly think the Red Sox are going to find themselves in the same position as they did with JDM as the only suitors. Braves, Phillies, or Angels could all be in on him.
You ask that question facetiously, but 13m vs league minimum?
Britton is good, but that's a chunk of change and relievers are (mostly) volatile. Who may the next Brasier be?
Yeah they’re volatile, but I’d rather pay $13M for a 31 yo guy that didn’t have to go play in Japan for five years then the minimum for one who did.
Me too but not at that price. The Yankees have more headroom than the Sox so the they can afford more coin on that slot and for him to not ever regain his pre-injury form with greater ease.
As of now, Yankees more engaged on Adam Ottavino than Manny Machado. Machado sweepstakes still moving at glacial pace as far as this lil ol reporter can tell. Pen market is moving and Ottavino could sign soon
What about if the 31 year old guy is coming off an injury and hasn't fully regained his form yet? The minimum is peanuts. Getting good production for the league minimum > getting great production at premium prices. Brasier is especially valuable to the Sox given how tight they are elsewhere payroll-wise.
It makes all the sense in the world for the Yankees to throw $$$ at Britton, as Britton is better with a longer track record than Brasier. However, if you deleted Brasier off the Sox roster and Britton off the NYYs, then asked the Sox to pick the one of their choosing, given their payroll constraints, that's a tough call.
I'm not shitting on the Britton signing. Again, he's good and they have more than enough cash for him, so it makes all the sense in the world. Just trying to point out that those Sox fans whining about DD sitting pat and about Brasier effectively being the 8th inning guy on the roster at the moment are lacking perspective. I fully expect the Yankees to get Ottavino as well, then the Sox to start searching for potential high-value options that may have been overlooked at non-premium pricing, like say, a Brach or an Allen.
This is a false dichotomy. There are 7 bullpen slots. The Red Sox weren’t choosing between Brasier and Britton. If they signed Britton, he’d be replacing the worst pitcher in the bullpen, not the guy currently slotted as the 2nd best —shudder.
What would you guys think if the yankees used Joel Sherman's suggestion for a contract for Machado or Harper at the link below?
https://nypost.com/2019/01/05/boras-client-may-show-creative-way-to-reach-harper-machado-deals/
https://nypost.com/2019/01/05/boras-client-may-show-creative-way-to-reach-harper-machado-deals/
His AAV suggestions are ludicrous, neither of those guys is worth $35M or $40M a year no matter how short the deal. Honestly he needs a vacation, thankfully for him he is currently taking one and hopefully it works.
Mark Feinsand wasn’t just on MLB Tonight. He wouldn’t be surprised if Sonny Gray starts spring training with the Yankees.
I have no idea what's going on with Machado, I think there are some NY front office people against getting him (I would love to know their proposed alternative) and some for going after him hard, and they seem to be both leaking different info to different writers at different times.
That being said, people need to stop acting like a $250M deal is an insult, especially if it is the place he has wanted to play all along. Machado is going to end up signing one of the five biggest deals in history yet somehow it seems like both he and a good chunk of the fan base will end up salty about it. He is a really really good player but if you were choosing guys (ignoring salary completely) for the next five years, I don't think he'd be in the top 10, I am guessing both he and Harper would be around 11-15 currently, both are supremely talented and still 26 but both have their well-known warts also.
It's too bad there's not alternative universes where we could play out the exact same 2019 season with Machado at 3B for NY and with Andujar there, because assuming Machado is still as good there as he has always been, I really think it's at least a 3 WAR upgrade just on 3B defense, from a guy who is historically bad (Miggy can and should still DH, his bat is special already and the guy bumped is Gardner back to 4th OF where he should be) to a guy who is historically good. That's not even totally factoring in the lefthandedness of the pitching staff (3 SPs if CC is ok and 2 of the top 3 relievers, Britton leads MLB in GB% every season and CC is constant soft contact to the left side, they benched Miggy down the stretch in his games) plus losing Didi's ability to cover for him a bit for at least half a season. But Tulo is very surehanded, it would be a great defensive trio with the range of Machado and Gleyber on each side of him.
But you have to actually sign Machado. Thanks in advance, Brian.
That being said, people need to stop acting like a $250M deal is an insult, especially if it is the place he has wanted to play all along. Machado is going to end up signing one of the five biggest deals in history yet somehow it seems like both he and a good chunk of the fan base will end up salty about it. He is a really really good player but if you were choosing guys (ignoring salary completely) for the next five years, I don't think he'd be in the top 10, I am guessing both he and Harper would be around 11-15 currently, both are supremely talented and still 26 but both have their well-known warts also.
It's too bad there's not alternative universes where we could play out the exact same 2019 season with Machado at 3B for NY and with Andujar there, because assuming Machado is still as good there as he has always been, I really think it's at least a 3 WAR upgrade just on 3B defense, from a guy who is historically bad (Miggy can and should still DH, his bat is special already and the guy bumped is Gardner back to 4th OF where he should be) to a guy who is historically good. That's not even totally factoring in the lefthandedness of the pitching staff (3 SPs if CC is ok and 2 of the top 3 relievers, Britton leads MLB in GB% every season and CC is constant soft contact to the left side, they benched Miggy down the stretch in his games) plus losing Didi's ability to cover for him a bit for at least half a season. But Tulo is very surehanded, it would be a great defensive trio with the range of Machado and Gleyber on each side of him.
But you have to actually sign Machado. Thanks in advance, Brian.
I can't believe I am citing Wallace Matthews, but this part at least passes the smell test for me:
"sources within the Yankees organization tell me the expected range for a Machado deal will be between $220 million and $270 million, probably for no more than seven years, and there is no guarantee the Yankees will be in if the numbers wind up in the upper half of that range."
His column is about Manny's wife Yainee preferring NYC, who knows.
https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/ny-sports-manny-machado-yankees-bryce-harper-20190107-story.html
"sources within the Yankees organization tell me the expected range for a Machado deal will be between $220 million and $270 million, probably for no more than seven years, and there is no guarantee the Yankees will be in if the numbers wind up in the upper half of that range."
His column is about Manny's wife Yainee preferring NYC, who knows.
https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/ny-sports-manny-machado-yankees-bryce-harper-20190107-story.html
Geez, I'll be really surprised if NY doesn't go to 8 yrs/$240-256 for him. That flexes their financial muscles without setting any records. And his age is what makes him particularly attractive, not just his skills (which are excellent but not "generational"), so going a little longer with him is relatively less risky.
Of course, they don't absolutely need him. They don't need another power RH bat. They could sign one more good glove utility guy for the late innings. They could move Tulo to 3rd if he's playing well when Didi comes back mid-year. They could trade mid-year. They've got options.
Of course, they don't absolutely need him. They don't need another power RH bat. They could sign one more good glove utility guy for the late innings. They could move Tulo to 3rd if he's playing well when Didi comes back mid-year. They could trade mid-year. They've got options.
Yeah, I feel like they're waiting him out to sign at terms they're comfortable with. It is slightly reminiscent of the JD Martinez FA last winter, where there were numbers floated early on that were entirely unrealistic from anyone, so that is slowing down everything. The difference here is that there are multiple bidders and BOS seemed to be the only ones really in on JDM seriously, but that might be counterbalanced by Machado's poorly hidden long-term preference for NY.
In other news, RAB lists some reasons this AM why NY should still be pursuing Ottavino and they don't even get to 'keep him away from BOS'. If NY signs Ottavino, I think Kimbrel gains some leverage with BOS, as he would become really the only impact guy remaining. (I know I said to keep this thread NY-centric, but this one I think is connected to both teams).
http://riveraveblues.com/2019/01/four-reasons-yankees-pursue-adam-ottavino-even-signing-zach-britton-182686/
In other news, RAB lists some reasons this AM why NY should still be pursuing Ottavino and they don't even get to 'keep him away from BOS'. If NY signs Ottavino, I think Kimbrel gains some leverage with BOS, as he would become really the only impact guy remaining. (I know I said to keep this thread NY-centric, but this one I think is connected to both teams).
http://riveraveblues.com/2019/01/four-reasons-yankees-pursue-adam-ottavino-even-signing-zach-britton-182686/
Cashman had said that he was waiting on CC to pass followup medical tests this month before going back to actively looking to move Gray, so this may be what he meant.
"LHP CC Sabathia underwent a scheduled follow-up stress test earlier today. He has now been cleared to begin working out, which will include baseball activities."
"LHP CC Sabathia underwent a scheduled follow-up stress test earlier today. He has now been cleared to begin working out, which will include baseball activities."
1. He will cost more, maybe a lot more in the end (I don't really know why this is, although I honestly think there is a good bit of racism in there which I'll elaborate on if it's not obvious to someone.)
2. Machado's defensive ability and versatility is a huge need for NY right now, especially with Didi out. Harper was a horrendous defender last year, as was Andujar. If you sign Harper, both of those guys are playing defense for you (although maybe Harper is the primary DH), if you sign Machado, neither is.
3. A big left-handed bat in the middle of the lineup would indeed be nice, but Machado and Harper had very similar numbers against RHP last year.
4. I just noticed "plays hard". This is what I mean by racist (and I am honestly not directing this to you, Big John, it is something I continue to see everywhere). Harper dove for ONE BALL ALL SEASON last year, and he slid for just three (MLBN posted these numbers the other day). He was the worst defensive outfielder in baseball in 2018. He is either a horrendous defender at a young age (in which case you'd be paying $350M or whatever for a DH) or he simply didn't try on defense all season while his team was fighting to make the playoffs, which they ended up not making despite the highest payroll in the NL.
Yet Machado, who has sat out only 11 total games IN THE LAST FOUR SEASONS COMBINED and played spectacular defense for most of those 159-games-on-average seasons is the one who is labelled as 'not hustling' (and yes, I know about the interview he gave). I have thought and thought about this and all I can come up with is one is white and one is Dominican.
What’s funny is Harper, if my memory is correct, played catcher in high school.
I'd like him better if he could play catcher too.*
*I still love Sanchez though. Hope he takes up yoga or something and his mobility behind the plate improves a little.
Andujar is Dominican, yes? I love his bat. Hire a coach to hit him 1,000 ground balls a day. It's not as if he can't improve defensively. Voit/Bird is a decent platoon at !B. And just for the record, Machado is not Dominican by birth. He was born and raised in FL, like his idol, ARod.
They are both great players. I just prefer the left handed bat. One of them is probably going to hit behind Judge. Which one will give Judge more protection? I really don't know the answer, but maybe Cashman and his minions do.
I've thought all along that Harper was going to get a contract which will have a monetary value in excess of Harper's baseball value. That's because someone is going to see him as a huge famous star who drives TV ratings, and maybe they are correct. (That team seems unlikely to be the Yankees.) How much of that is "racism" I'm not sure. When I was a kid I was acutely aware that the biggest star in the game, Pete Rose, was far from the best player in the game. Or, usually, on his team. And that he was the biggest star because he played on a great team, ran to first on walks, dove for balls that most players would catch without effort, was always in contention for the batting title, slid headfirst into bases, and, most importantly, was white.
Yeah, it's a complicated topic, and I agree that star power is a real thing. I just don't get how Harper isn't getting dinged more for his horrible, seemingly minimal effort, defensive season. And even worse, WAS doesn't seem to care, they want him back even though their OF is full already (to be fair, Harper and Soto and Robles could be an alltime great OF, sorry Eaton).
I think the perception is that Harper is better than he was last year and better than he's been during his less productive years. Not agreeing or disagreeing, but people think of Harper's potential as a top 5 player in the game, though he hasn't been one consistently.
I love watching him hit and was pushing for him to get a chance with NY well before he did, but I honestly don't think he can improve enough to play adequate 3B defense for a title-hopeful team, no. He has now played 680 professional games defensively (541 minors, 139 majors), all of them at 3B, and he was only getting worse at the end of last season, to the point where they only played him for about half of the ALDS even though he was one of their best few hitters. He has so many issues there, reflexes, range, footwork, release angle on his throws, slow release, I just don't think it's fixable. There were 40 3B last year with 300+ ABs, look how much worse his defense was than all of the other 39.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=300&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,a
One article I read compared him to Ryan Braun, who played his entire rookie year at 3B and has not played another game there since. I think he could be a superb DH (I think his hitting would only get better if it was his only focus), maybe a passable LF or 1B, but he is not a 3B.
Which I even understand from a fan's perspective, the guy was unanimous MVP when he was 22.
But we're not talking about being elected to the ASG, we're talking about businessmen making nine figure commitments to players. The 'top FA' articles this winter have had Machado ahead of Harper more often than not in terms of ranking them as assets, it's going to be interesting to see how big the final difference in contracts is (although admittedly that may be in large part because Boras has 93 year old Ted Lerner hypnotized).
I'm convinced that the Yankees are done shopping except for someone like Neil Walker.
So much buildup for this offseason just for the owners to pocket the money.
So much buildup for this offseason just for the owners to pocket the money.
It would definitely seem like they're cheaping out but just like Corbin, I don't want them overpaying. And count that double when it's overspending for 8 or 10 years. If you wanna give a pitcher an extra $3M for 4 years, no big deal. Machado or Harper AND Stanton on top of the eventual long-term agreements with Judge and Co is a scary thought. Can't just have 5 players making $30m.
But isn’t this the time to pay FA a premium? You have a lot of cost-controlled guys already and payroll space. What’s the point in not maximising the payroll room?
I can see the argument both ways. There's a part of me that thinks Machado is a luxury and not something the team needs, so why pay above market? If a stronger case could be made that this team needs more offense, I'd buy into it. However, I'd just as fast save the ammunition, get an Asdrubal Cabrera type for the infield, pick up another arm, and go to battle with an improved 100 win team.
Houston and Boston's complacency this offseason so far is also taking some pressure off of NY IMO.