2018 Yankees Offseason Discussion
- Thread starter jon abbey
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Yeah, he's going to be an interesting one. He is still young but had absolutely horrendous defensive numbers this past season, like plopping down Andujar in RF with no practice level numbers. He has only hit 2 WAR in 2 of the past 5 seasons (admittedly those were 10.0 and 4.7) and the defense is scary.
I’d like to swap my spouse for Tom Brady. Sometimes I put on my Tom Brady jersey and pretend I’m Tom Brady dreaming of leaving his spouse for me. It’s ok, my wife does the same. It’s what makes it all work.
all the yankees need is 2 SP 1 ace type and 1 3/4 guy i would not add a bat because they will always score runs how much $$ do we have to spend 1 thing we could do outside the box is sign kimbmel to 3y 75 mil trade chapman to lad sign corbin zona to a 6y 150 and rick p 3 y 66 mil
Chapman has a full no-trade clause through next season, which doesn't mean he can't be moved, but not sure why you think a pricier Kimbrel would be an upgrade there. And Porcello is not a FA until after next year.
Machado has to be the FA priority, none of the SPs are sure things (although they still need to sign a couple) and it's really unclear how Harper could fit (not really buying him at 1B for $200M+) unless they move Stanton to the Dodgers with his permission. I thought Machado was the priority even before Didi's injury but now they need him to play SS for the bulk of this season at least, plus that is protection against Didi not coming back the same or leaving in FA after next season. It's quite possible that Didi's injury ends up buying Andujar at least a few more months at 3B, although I am really pessimistic about his chances there as I've stated a lot already.
Machado has to be the FA priority, none of the SPs are sure things (although they still need to sign a couple) and it's really unclear how Harper could fit (not really buying him at 1B for $200M+) unless they move Stanton to the Dodgers with his permission. I thought Machado was the priority even before Didi's injury but now they need him to play SS for the bulk of this season at least, plus that is protection against Didi not coming back the same or leaving in FA after next season. It's quite possible that Didi's injury ends up buying Andujar at least a few more months at 3B, although I am really pessimistic about his chances there as I've stated a lot already.
Harper will be one of the more interesting FA cases of all-time. I think for the most part hes been widely regarded as the best player after Mike Trout, at least before Betts this year. He has the pedigree and a sky high ceiling that he has reached before (9.3 WAR, 197 wRC+ in 2015.) He has 30.7 WAR and a career 140 and he’s still only entering his age 26 season. He’s genuinely one of the top younger players entering free agency in the games history. But he’s had some injuries and solid seasons but on the other hand he’s never had a season between 5.0 and 9.0 fWAR.
You have to wonder if his ego is going to hurt him because he really hasn't shown the maturity that you want in a player who you're about to give $200-300m. Machado, for all his warts, looks like his teammates like him and he's a good clubhouse guy.
The underlying feeling I have with free agents is that I'm incredibly happy that we are building a young and homegrown team but I'm super worried about mega ego stars shitting in the pool.
I want Harper then Machado, unless the Dodgers want Stanton then I want both.
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The way the Sox approached pitching in the Series makes Boone look even worse. God, Lance fucking Lynn.
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The way the Sox approached pitching in the Series makes Boone look even worse. God, Lance fucking Lynn.
It got them a title, but it will be interesting to see how all of those SPs bounce back next season.
The interesting thing is that, in the end, Sale is the one who wasn't overused.
I would definitely take Cora of those three to manage my team, and it wouldn't be close.
Ironically NY advancing past BOS in 2017 allowed BOS to grab Cora while NY was still in the ALCS, but what a dud Cashman ended up choosing out of everyone else (IMO obv).
Yankees supposedly not interested in pursuing Harper.
https://www.sny.tv/yankees/news/sources-yankees-not-expected-to-pursue-free-agent-bryce-harper/299926808
https://www.sny.tv/yankees/news/sources-yankees-not-expected-to-pursue-free-agent-bryce-harper/299926808
NY has three days from the end of the WS to make a decision on Brett Gardner so we'll hear that decision soon, $12.5M for 2019 if they keep him, $2M buyout if they don't. He does still have value defensively and in the clubhouse and if NY lets him go, they will need to figure out a backup CF option behind Hicks, but would be at least a bit surprising if NY picks up the option IMO.
And he may actually be a possibility, Boras said this week he expects to be healthy for spring training.
But if Clint Frazier is past his concussion issues, an OF of Stanton/Hicks/Judge with Clint as the 4th OF seems like the way to go, both Judge and Clint have played some CF, maybe Tyler Wade makes the team too. Not ideal defensively, but workable probably.
No discussion of Eovaldi here? If they can't/don't trade for a young stud SP, then picking up Corbin and Eo makes more sense to me than signing Machado or Harper. (And yes, I realize that it's likely wish-casting to think the Yankees don't pick up ALL of those guys, but there are likely to be a few other interested teams with deep pockets out there!)
We keep having to make this same comment, but they are not mutually exclusive. The Yankees have the budget this year to do basically do whatever they want and still probably stay under the first luxury threshold. Cot's right now has them at $141m after arb. That gives them $70+ million to play with in AAV before getting to the threshold. The Sox, by comparison, are at $210m estimated after arb and will need to fill at least 2 bullpen spots and 1-2 rotation spots. I bring up the Sox as a reference because they have deep pockets but if Cashman wants to get a guy, he's in a position to overpay.
Re: Eovaldi specifically, I'm sure 30 teams are going to bid for his upside. My guess is that he winds up somewhere with a 4/60 deal. He won't be cheap but I think with SP in such high demand, he might wind up with a Mike Leake or Danny Duffy contract.
I think you're forgetting player benefits and players in minors which can add up to about $17 million. Plus the first threshold is at $206 million. So it's more like $48 million give or take.
It's inexact math right now but we have to be careful not to mix up payroll and payroll for LT purposes. Looking at Cot's, the Yankees have $99m (LT purposes) committed after benefits and 40-man roster salaries. The estimated arb is about $40-50m for the Yankees. Cashman is going to trade Gray which will shave off his salary. Give or take, the Yankees are starting from a baseline of about $140 to $145m. They could easily get themselves to the threshold, but I don't think it will be guaranteed that they go over.
Sure they can always adjust the arb bucket by trading away or non-tendering. They also need to weigh the pending arbs of Judge and Sanchez after next season.
Totally, and Mookie and Xander are probably going to help set some precedents. I'm curious to follow what happens with Mookie and when the Sox start engaging on extension talks.
My favorite Yankee follow on Twitter (@Yankeesource) who is or was a NY scout living in Japan, just posted this as his guess for NY's lineup entering spring training:
"Realistic:
Hicks CF
Judge RF
Machado 3B
Stanton LF
Sanchez C
Andujar DH
Torres SS
Voit/Bird 1B
Torreyes/Wade 2B"
I think if this is the plan that you also get Hechevarria back cheaply for SS and keep Torres at 2B, that would be a superb defensive infield trio and they have so much offense already.
"Realistic:
Hicks CF
Judge RF
Machado 3B
Stanton LF
Sanchez C
Andujar DH
Torres SS
Voit/Bird 1B
Torreyes/Wade 2B"
I think if this is the plan that you also get Hechevarria back cheaply for SS and keep Torres at 2B, that would be a superb defensive infield trio and they have so much offense already.
Brett's fate is probably largely decided by, goddammit, the inescapable fact that we have to pay Ellsbury $47 million over the next 2 years, as pointed out in the Post today. sigh
I love the idea of Michael Brantley as the 4th/5th outfielder and I wonder if Cashman can find a 2b option to use through the deadline that we could trade before or after Didi got back. Great way to get value on both ends.
Marwin Gonzalez would be perfect for the Yankees. He could play 2nd while Torres is at SS until Didi comes back. Then he can be a DH/1B/4th outfielder.
Yankees are for some reason bringing Brett Gardner back per Mark Feinsend. Deal is for 1 year at $7.5 million after the team declined his option.
Outfield isn't a problem so I don't see this as an issue for defensive purposes. It was never going to be an area where we saw a big upgrade one way or the other.
Gardy gets a gold-watch in 2020?
McCutcheon's a FA, right?
Seems like Gardy rules against Harper in the OF. Could play 1st.
or they could eat Ells last year, make room for Frazier, and focus on a couple of starters.
McCutcheon's a FA, right?
Seems like Gardy rules against Harper in the OF. Could play 1st.
or they could eat Ells last year, make room for Frazier, and focus on a couple of starters.
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Maybe they think Gardner is an important veteran presence for the position players? Besides Romine, everyone else has been there 4 years or fewer I think.
This is reasonable, probably the best explanation of a move that makes little sense. Maybe they worry that Frazier could concuss himself again and Gardy is insurance.
What's the downside of Gardner? I'm confused. I would have been fine letting him go but what was the alternative we were hoping for? A more expensive Marwin?
It seems like there could be a better use of the roster spot and cash, but of course we need to see the full plan to really know. If Frazier had finished the year healthy, this would make more sense to me because then Frazier could be a big chip for a stud SP (let's not forget in between concussion stints this year he was hitting like the top 20 prospect he'd still be if he hadn't gotten a bit too much time in 2017, easily leading the IL in OPS at 23). Maybe teams will value him like he is, but seeing him do so again would obviously be ideal. Although I guess the opposite is true also, Brett is a bit of Frazier insurance, but it seems like they could have done better, dunno.
This also is not unconnected to Cashman having to include Billy McKinney in the Happ deal (he did not want to but finally relented to finish it), they are really thin in the high minors at OF now unless Florial takes off. I would certainly rather see 2019 Gardner than Shane Robinson, although there could not be a lower bar.
OK, I talked myself into this a bit while going through that, it is not much money, the clubhouse stuff is not nothing, and they can still fit Harper in positionally (Stanton at DH, Harper in LF, Gardner as 4th OF, Clint waiting again in AAA) if the money can work.
Also any game he doesn't start means he is in the dugout the whole time, and Boone and crew could use all the baseball insight they can get. In fact, maybe Brett will be the midseason managerial replacement after NY struggles initially, now that I am definitely down for.
I broached this on nyyfans but if NY could get Harper to go for something like 8/240, I wonder if Cashman could bundle Ellsbury's remaining 2/48 (22/22/4) with the then very blocked Clint Frazier, so that upgrading Clint to Bryce would only add $6M a year for 2019/2020. Clint would be a top 20/30 MLB prospect if he was still eligible and concussion-free, he led the IL in OPS by a lot last year and played the whole season at 23. Maybe the acquiring team would get something out of Ellsbury but even if not there are rebuilding teams where almost everyone is pre-FA, and they could swallow that money if they liked Clint enough.
Clint can do this, in case anyone has forgotten, crushing this massive game--winning HR off a 97 MPH FB in July 2017 off the then dominant Corey Knebel. I love to link this one:
Clint can do this, in case anyone has forgotten, crushing this massive game--winning HR off a 97 MPH FB in July 2017 off the then dominant Corey Knebel. I love to link this one:
You would have to hope they hadn't seen what he looked like.
Freaky fucking ginger monster is terrifying.
Freaky fucking ginger monster is terrifying.