2019 Draft Megathread

[128]

From: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26092152/nba-draft-lottery-deep-dive-rankings-odds-intel

Grizzlies-Celtics

The Grizzlies owe their pick to the Celtics if it falls outside the top eight. If not conveyed, the pick falls to top-six protected in 2020 and then becomes unprotected in 2021.

• Chances Memphis keeps its pick: 55.6 percent
  
  
• Chances Boston gets a top-10 pick from Memphis this year: 43.2 percent

Kings-Celtics-76ers

The Kings owe their pick to the Celtics unprotected, but the 76ers will get the selection if this becomes the No. 1 pick. In that scenario, Boston would get Philadelphia's pick.

• Chances Philadelphia gets the No. 1 pick from Sacramento: 1.0 percent
  
  
• Chances Boston gets a top-four pick from Sacramento: 3.8 percent

So...do we want the Memphis pick to come to Boston this year, or is it preferable to wait til 2020 or even 2021?

Conventional wisdom seems to hold that it's better for the C's if the pick rolls over to 2020, when it's top-6 protected, or 2021, when it's unprotected, but I'm not convinced.

The Grizzlies' whole identity is based on grit and competitiveness, and it's hard for me to see them going full-on tank. Who's to say they won't rebuild around Jackson and Conley and end up with, say, the No. 12 pick in 2020 and something better than that in 2021? We saw with the Kings this season that teams sometimes far exceed expectations.

Now, is a top-6 protected 2020 pick a better trade chip than the No. 9 pick in what's seen as a weak 2019 draft? Maybe so.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Congrats to the New York Knicks on landing Zion Williamson! What a great result for such an impeccably well-run franchise.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Also want to congratulate the Sacramento Kings for only losing the 14th pick to the Celtics. Just a drop in the bucket for a franchise on the up and up!

My condolences to the Memphis Grizzlies for losing their 2019 draft pick to the Celtics. Better luck next year, Memphis!

 

[NomarsFool]

Really hard to get value on those (relative to the NFL), just because there the gap between even 5 draft slots is so massive in terms of expected outcomes, and no one will trade anything unprotected anymore. The Celtics would have loved to do this in 2016, but had to settle for draft+stashing Yabu and Zizic.

If you want to turn a current draft pick into future assets and you like your coaching/player development, you're better off drafting the best guy you can, developing him, and then rolling him into a star or future picks--if he has a lot of upside, that's when you might be able to get unprotected stuff.

The Celtics had executed that to a degree with Jaylen: he likely would have been enough last summer to get a Kawhi deal done. The problem is that young guys with high upside are so valuable that teams hate eventually dealing them when things work out perfectly like that.

It's interesting to me how incredibly rare it is for low draft picks to have much of a career in the NBA. Especially when you consider how increasingly young players are drafted. Of course there are always super rare situations - like Giannis growing a couple of inches after he was drafted at #15 - but it usually seems like (if you're lucky) a late round draft pick could be a role player. It'd be interesting to see a meta-analysis of what proportion of players make an All-NBA team by draft position.

 

[128]

It's interesting to me how incredibly rare it is for low draft picks to have much of a career in the NBA. Especially when you consider how increasingly young players are drafted. Of course there are always super rare situations - like Giannis growing a couple of inches after he was drafted at #15 - but it usually seems like (if you're lucky) a late round draft pick could be a role player. It'd be interesting to see a meta-analysis of what proportion of players make an All-NBA team by draft position.

There are many more misses than hits, but the list of late-round discoveries is not insubstantial. For example:

* 2017: John Collins at No. 19, Kuzma at No. 27, Sterling Brown at No. 46, Monte Morris at No. 52.

* 2016: LeVert at No. 20, Siakam at No. 27, Dejounte Murray at No. 29, Brogdon at No. 36.

* 2015: Devin Booker at No. 13, Bobby Portis at No. 22, Larry Nance Jr. at No. 27, Kevon Looney at No. 30, Montreal Harrell at No. 32, Pat Connaughton at No. 41, Norman Powell at No. 46.

* 2014: TJ Warren at No. 14, Gary Harris at No. 19, Clint Capela at No. 25, Joe Harris at No. 33, Spencer Dinwiddie at No. 36, Jokic at No. 41, Jordan Clarkson at No. 46.

Unfortunately for the C's, they passed on a number of those players, including Jokic.

 

[Jimbodandy]

There are many more misses than hits, but the list of late-round discoveries is not insubstantial. For example:

* 2017: John Collins at No. 19, Kuzma at No. 27, Sterling Brown at No. 46, Monte Morris at No. 52.

* 2016: LeVert at No. 20, Siakam at No. 27, Dejounte Murray at No. 29, Brogdon at No. 36.

* 2015: Devin Booker at No. 13, Bobby Portis at No. 22, Larry Nance Jr. at No. 27, Kevon Looney at No. 30, Montreal Harrell at No. 32, Pat Connaughton at No. 41, Norman Powell at No. 46.

* 2014: TJ Warren at No. 14, Gary Harris at No. 19, Clint Capela at No. 25, Joe Harris at No. 33, Spencer Dinwiddie at No. 36, Jokic at No. 41, Jordan Clarkson at No. 46.

Unfortunately for the C's, they passed on a number of those players, including Jokic.

Everyone passed on those guys, that's why second rounders and low firsts making an impact is news. There is always a chance to find a diamond in the rough . But if it were easy to identify guys like Siakam and Jokic, they wouldn't be on the board that low.

Having extra picks helps your contact rate. Some orgs have more of these than others, but it's clearly more art than science.

 

[kelpapa]

It's interesting to me how incredibly rare it is for low draft picks to have much of a career in the NBA. Especially when you consider how increasingly young players are drafted. Of course there are always super rare situations - like Giannis growing a couple of inches after he was drafted at #15 - but it usually seems like (if you're lucky) a late round draft pick could be a role player. It'd be interesting to see a meta-analysis of what proportion of players make an All-NBA team by draft position.

While this is true, the highest drafted player that will suit up in the Eastern Conference Finals was Brook Lopez at tenth overall. Pau Gasol is the only pick higher at number 3, and he's not playing.

 

[wilked]

While this is true, the highest drafted player that will suit up in the Eastern Conference Finals was Brook Lopez at tenth overall. Pau Gasol is the only pick higher at number 3, and he's not playing.

That is pretty wild

 

[wilked]

So if I remember right, they read off the 14 envelopes, from #14 to #1?

From the Celtics perspective then we don’t want to hear the Kings name called early

Then we want to hear the Grizzlies name called before #8

Then we want to hear the Kings called before #1.

That about right?

 

[E5 Yaz]

Congrats to the New York Knicks on landing Zion Williamson! What a great result for such an impeccably well-run franchise.

Cool as the other side of the envelope

 

[DJnVa]

So if I remember right, they read off the 14 envelopes, from #14 to #1?

From the Celtics perspective then we don’t want to hear the Kings name called early

Then we want to hear the Grizzlies name called before #8

Then we want to hear the Kings called before #1.

That about right?

No. We don't want to hear Memphis until we get to #8. If it's BEFORE that then we get the pick and we don't want it.

 

[the moops]

No. We don't want to hear Memphis until we get to #8. If it's BEFORE that then we get the pick and we don't want it.

I think this is necessarily true. For I think we all would sign up for SAC at # 2-4 and MEM at #9

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Thybulle, Hachimura, Okeke, DeAndre Hunter and Killian Tillie are all skipping the combine.

Rumors swirling that Thybulle has a promise from OKC at #21, but I can't really suss out if that's based on anything other than him being a prototypical Presti pick. But it certainly seems like he has a promise somewhere if he’s declining the invite. I’ve never read any hints of medical red flags.

Okeke is rumored to be signing with an agent, so he likely has a promise as well. I’d be all over him with the Cs own pick.

 

[ZMart100]

Delete

 

[DJnVa]

I think this is necessarily true. For I think we all would sign up for SAC at # 2-4 and MEM at #9

Yes, of course you're right. I was speaking of more likely outcomes. Once SAC isn't their at #14 I'm okay with anything as long as they're not #1

 

[tims4wins]

Yes, of course you're right. I was speaking of more likely outcomes. Once SAC isn't their at #14 I'm okay with anything as long as they're not #1

Given the choice though, I think I'd roll the dice on not seeing Sacramento at #14, even if it means a chance of it going #1 to Philly...

 

[ifmanis5]

Shams: If the Knicks win the lottery they want to trade the pick for AD:
Stadium‏Verified account @Stadium 54m54 minutes ago
If the #Knicks land the No. 1 pick, hold off on ordering those Zion Williamson jerseys. Our #NBAInsider @ShamsCharania reports he could get traded to the Pelicans for Anthony Davis. #NBADraftLottery | #ZionDay

 

[nighthob]

On July 1st, yes.

 

[wilked]

No. We don't want to hear Memphis until we get to #8. If it's BEFORE that then we get the pick and we don't want it.

you are right.... something felt wrong to me.

So we don't want to hear SAC until #4 earliest (and #2 latest!), and MEM til 8 earliest (at least the majority of us...)

 

[NomarsFool]

Well, at least Memphis didn't convey. Don't love them being in the top 4, and certainly not LA - yech.

 

[Big John]

Well, if Williamson is as good as advertised, the pick will certainly convey next year. And Ainge's "trade for AD" plan just hit a snag.

 

[oumbi]

Where can I get a simple list of the drafted players? I dont need "live" video coverage.

 

[NomarsFool]

Well, if Williamson is as good as advertised, the pick will certainly convey next year. And Ainge's "trade for AD" plan just hit a snag.

Memphis isn't getting Zion, NOL is.

 

[nighthob]

Well, if Williamson is as good as advertised, the pick will certainly convey next year. And Ainge's "trade for AD" plan just hit a snag.

As Memphis won’t be getting Williamson, why does it matter?

 

[Big John]

As Memphis won’t be getting Williamson, why does it matter?

Yeah, misspoke. But they still get a decent player, probably Barrett. But does it matter now? I don't see AD being traded before the deadline now that the Pelicans have Zion.

 

[nighthob]

Yeah, misspoke. But they still get a decent player, probably Barrett. But does it matter now? I don't see AD being traded before the deadline now that the Pelicans have Zion.

Conley has one year left on his deal and is on the wrong side of 30. They’re going to be drafting Morant.

 

[Big John]

Conley has one year left on his deal and is on the wrong side of 30. They’re going to be drafting Morant.

Perhaps, and yes they may tank. So then the pick rolls over to 2021 and is unprotected. I still don't see it as an asset that will induce Griffin to part with AD prior to the 2020 deadline.

 

[NomarsFool]

This is really quite the unexpected outcome. The whole story has been who might get the #1 pick to trade for AD, and now NOL gets the #1? Wow.

I'd think there's a good chance they try and convince AD that pairing him with Zion is going to be a force, but we'll see if he has the patience for that. He could also just play it out for a year and then leave as an UFA next summer, right? What are the financial implications for him if he stays another year in NOL, any?

If they are trading AD, I think it means that high draft picks (meaning the Lakers or Knicks pick) aren't quite as valuable to them anymore. Maybe still NY, as they could draft RJ Barret which would be a nice story. But, I don't see the LA pick having a ton of value to them. So, it might make Tatum more valuable to them.

 

[DJnVa]

Let them pair Tatum with another Blue Devil.

Who're we looking at at #14?

 

[nighthob]

Nickeil Alexander-Walker hopefully. He’s long, strong, and quick enough to guard smaller guys. A little on the raw side, but he’s got some serious upside.

 

[chilidawg]

Let them pair Tatum with another Blue Devil.

Who're we looking at at #14?

Probably not a popular pick but I like the little I've watched of Bol Bol. He's got a lot of offensive polish in a 7'2 frame.

 

[JCizzle]

Let them pair Tatum with another Blue Devil.

Who're we looking at at #14?

Someone ultra athletic that can't shoot and/or loves long twos haha.

 

[RedOctober3829]

At 14 PJ Washington is an option as an inside presence. Hopefully Rui Hacimura or Bol Bol falls there. At 20 I would not mind Carson Edwards from Purdue. He has the potential of instant scoring potential off the bench. At 24, Dort or Thybulle would be solid options if they had to trade Smart in an AD deal. Cam Johnson would be a nice floor spacing wing.

I wouldn't mind if they bought a 2nd round pick and brought Ty Jerome or Kyle Guy in. I love both of their games.

 

[jmm57]

I saw the French kid Doumbouya mocked to the Cs at 14 and thought it made a lot of sense given his length/defensive versatility and possibly the ability to stash.

The MEM pick pushing out at least a year maybe makes that less likely however.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

So am I the only one thinking there is a greater than zero chance that one injury and a season of Popeye’s Louisiana Kitchen could turn Zion into Booger McFarland?

 

[JCizzle]

So am I the only one thinking there is a greater than zero chance that one injury and a season of Popeye’s Louisiana Kitchen could turn Zion into Booger McFarland?

 

[BaseballJones]

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2019-nba-mock-draft-pelicans-get-top-pick-in-lottery-and-win-chance-to-take-zion-williamson-at-no-1/

CBS mock draft has Boston taking:

#14
Sekou Doumbouya | France | SF | 6-9

Doumbouya, a long-time French prodigy, projects as a floor-spacing big man who can knock down 3-pointers and create plays from the post. He's still raw -- and still growing, having just turned 18 before Christmas -- but he's got lottery talent. The Celtics could develop him into a usable big man when Al Horford eventually hangs it up, and they've not been shy drafting international players.

#20 (acquired from the Clippers)
Keldon Johnson | Kentucky | Fr | SG | 6-6

Johnson fits what the Celtics love to look for in a draft pick: a player with a high motor and switchability. Johnson can guard numerous positions on the perimeter and, early on, could be a 3-and-D player in Boston. As he evolves as a playmaker and earns trust with the franchise, his physical traits could help him develop into an All-Star caliber player.

#22
Bol Bol | Oregon | Fr | C | 7-2

The list of 7-foot-plus athletes who can shoot 3-pointers and protect the rim at a high level begins and ends with Bol in this draft. And for a Boston franchise that could be shooting for a huge hit late in the lottery, he's worth a flyer despite his injury history. Bol shot 52% from 3-point range and blocked 2.7 shots per game in nine contests at Oregon before a season-ending injury derailed his Ducks tenure.


I think I'd be good with that. There's not a lot of plug-and-play, NBA-ready talent there, but there's potential for huge upside. Three guys with lottery or all-star talent, but man that's a YOUNG group. So this would be a draft with the long-term in mind for sure. But even if they can't snag AD, and Kyrie walks....draft these three guys and then like 4 years later, when Tatum and Brown are in their mid-20s, these guys could be ready for big-time prime time.

 

[Big John]

Is Doumbouya a "long time" prodigy? He's still only 18 years old. He does have an extremely high upside and I doubt if he's there at #14. Maybe Alexander-Walker or Keldon Johnson is a fit here.
As for #20, If Thybulle has an alleged promise from OKC at #21, the Celtics should take him at #20.
At #22, who knows? I think Bol Bol will be a bust and injury prone throughout his career. Okpala has upside but he's as raw as Doumbouya.
With the second rounder I like Miye Oni but I doubt if he stays in. Maybe Naz Reid slips, but he's a first round talent.

The mocks are all over the place at this point.

 

[EL Jeffe]

If they're keeping 14, sign me up for one of Kevin Porter or Goga Bitadze. Porter's ceiling is probably higher than anyone in the draft outside of Zion and Morant. Yeah, the floor is low, but at #14, why not gamble on a potential difference maker? Then Bitadze profiles as today's modern stretch 5 who can fill up a stat sheet. He's a draft-and-stash, but again, the upside is there. You can get rotation players at 20 and 22 (PJ Washington, Ty Jerome, et al) - 14 should be used on a lottery ticket type pick, particularly with the extra picks later on.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

I would expect the Celtics to try and package picks to move up. I can’t see them selecting three rookies unless Kyrie/Horford are gone.

 

[Big John]

I would expect the Celtics to try and package picks to move up. I can’t see them selecting three rookies unless Kyrie/Horford are gone.

Move up for what? If they package 14,20 and 22, how high can they move up? Maybe to 9 or thereabouts? I don't think the talent differential in this draft between 9 and 14 is that great on paper, but maybe Ainge will fall in love with someone after a workout.

 

[128]

I want someone who can consistently hit an open jump shot. UNC's Cameron Johnson, if he's available at No. 20, would fit the bill.

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

So am I the only one thinking there is a greater than zero chance that one injury and a season of Popeye’s Louisiana Kitchen could turn Zion into Booger McFarland?

You think he could turn into that bad of an announcer from the Popeyes?

 

[NomarsFool]

I would expect the Celtics to try and package picks to move up. I can’t see them selecting three rookies unless Kyrie/Horford are gone.

I think packaging has no value in this draft. They will draft and stash, trade for a future pick, or take on some developmental projects. Depending on what happens with the roster, they may really need to fill some roster spots anyway.

 

[NoXInNixon]

Move up for what? If they package 14,20 and 22, how high can they move up? Maybe to 9 or thereabouts? I don't think the talent differential in this draft between 9 and 14 is that great on paper, but maybe Ainge will fall in love with someone after a workout.

There has to be a sweet spot somewhere at which the difference in value between that pick and 14 is exactly worth the extra picks. If it's not 9 maybe it's 8 or 7 or 6. There are lots of really bad teams in that range due to the way the lottery worked out that should value quantity over quality.

 

[amfox1]

8 and 10 are ATL, cannot see ATL trading for more picks.

9 (WAS) is a likely target to move up. 14 and 20 for 9 could be doable.
7 (CHI) is a possible target. 14, 20 and 22 for 7 could be doable.
Don't see a draft pick trade with 6 (PHX) or above.

2018 - moving from 16 to 10 cost a future 1st, moving from 12 to 11 cost two future 2nds
2017 - moving from 15 to 10 cost pick 20

 

[mauf]

So am I the only one thinking there is a greater than zero chance that one injury and a season of Popeye’s Louisiana Kitchen could turn Zion into Booger McFarland?

When I think of New Orleans cuisine, fried chicken isn’t the first, second, or third thing that springs to mind.

Next time you make a joke about an NBA player eating himself out of the league (which we all know is a real thing that happens), please be more careful to steer clear of racist tropes. Not saying you meant that — if I thought you did, I wouldn’t be addressing it with a friendly note.

Please take any further discussion of this issue to PM or Backwash.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I would expect the Celtics to try and package picks to move up. I can’t see them selecting three rookies unless Kyrie/Horford are gone.

Agree that we won’t be adding 3 rookies on guaranteed 1st round deals. The only way we add 3 (or even 2 rookies) is if we return to a rebuild minus Kyrie and Horford to where these guys would be able to get some playing time. Since I’m mentally all-in on Davis being here on July 1 this isn’t the direction I see us going since a couple of these picks would likely go to NO in the package.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

When I think of New Orleans cuisine, fried chicken isn’t the first, second, or third thing that springs to mind.

Next time you make a joke about an NBA player eating himself out of the league (which we all know is a real thing that happens), please be more careful to steer clear of racist tropes. Not saying you meant that — if I thought you did, I wouldn’t be addressing it with a friendly note.

Please take any further discussion of this issue to PM or Backwash.

This is the second time in a couple days a poster has undeservedly been accused of a racist post (DeJesus being the other). Not much on this board REALLY pisses me off or offends me......but an accusation like this is complete FUCKING BULLSHIT!!!!!

I didn’t PM because I want my feeling on this to be heard. Yes I’m really fucking pissed at this accusation since the only time race entered my mind was after reading your post. No, I have never had an issue with you personally and actually feel we’ve “gotten along” quite well over the years. Very disapponting.

 

[DJnVa]

Yeah, I think it's a big reach to think HRB meant anything other than the quick connection of Zion to NO with his unique body style with a fast food place that literally calls itself Popeye's Louisiana Kitchen.