Adrian Beltre...Bound for the Hall?
- Thread starter Darnell's Son
- Start date
I'm with Dave. Beltre isn't a household name, but 3,000 hits is one of the two traditional milestones (300 wins being the other) that still guarantees enshrinement. And there's little doubt Beltre will get to 3,000 -- most likely next season. Assuming he does, the only suspense on Beltre's candidacy is whether he will be a first-ballot selection.
If Beltre somehow doesn't reach 3,000 hits, it's a closer call. Beltre's resume currently looks a lot like Brooks Robinson's -- his glove isn't quite as good as the legendary Robinson's, but Beltre has been the better hitter by a significant margin (115 OPS+ vs. 104 for Robinson, and also better in BA and counting stats), so I'm guessing that if we had modern defensive metrics during Robinson's career, their career WAR would be roughly the same. (Beltre has a 92-86 edge over Robinson in bWAR, but I'm guessing that underrates Robinson's defense, because he played alongside Belanger all those years.) Robinson would have an edge in voting because he had more postseason opportunities than Beltre, but he's generally not considered a borderline Hall of Famer, so you can probably be a tick weaker as a candidate than Robinson was and still sneak in. Beltre certainly wouldn't be a first-ballot choice without 3,000 hits, but I still think he'd make it eventually.
If Beltre somehow doesn't reach 3,000 hits, it's a closer call. Beltre's resume currently looks a lot like Brooks Robinson's -- his glove isn't quite as good as the legendary Robinson's, but Beltre has been the better hitter by a significant margin (115 OPS+ vs. 104 for Robinson, and also better in BA and counting stats), so I'm guessing that if we had modern defensive metrics during Robinson's career, their career WAR would be roughly the same. (Beltre has a 92-86 edge over Robinson in bWAR, but I'm guessing that underrates Robinson's defense, because he played alongside Belanger all those years.) Robinson would have an edge in voting because he had more postseason opportunities than Beltre, but he's generally not considered a borderline Hall of Famer, so you can probably be a tick weaker as a candidate than Robinson was and still sneak in. Beltre certainly wouldn't be a first-ballot choice without 3,000 hits, but I still think he'd make it eventually.
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Even if (read: when) he gets to 3,000 hits, I don't think there's a chance he makes it on the first ballot. More than anything, it depends upon the class that year. Not that that makes any sense, but that's how the BBWAA operates.
Barring real suspicion of PED usage, 3,000 hits is pretty much entrée into the hall. Beltre's likability and offensive production late into his career will put him over the top.
Barring real suspicion of PED usage, 3,000 hits is pretty much entrée into the hall. Beltre's likability and offensive production late into his career will put him over the top.
If nothing else, Beltre's GIF collection is first ballot Hall-of Fame worthy.
But I agree that his overall body of work is one of the best 3B of all time. Great defensively, hit for power, average.
But I agree that his overall body of work is one of the best 3B of all time. Great defensively, hit for power, average.
Just so long as Elvis Andrus enshrines him.
Side question: if you run the head of the bust, will an animatronic version of Beltre chase you around the Hall?
Side question: if you run the head of the bust, will an animatronic version of Beltre chase you around the Hall?
Love Beltre, and he'll always be one of my favorite short-time Sox players. But, the FA comp picks from Beltre to Texas (I believe) netted Boston JBJ and Swihart.
Yea I know. Time will tell how it'll end up. (not gonna turn this into a debate about career projections of JBJ and Swihart....)Beltre is averaging 6 BWAR/season on Texas while on a very good contract.
Isn't there an element of "this guy was the top of the league" or "this guy was the best at his position" in the voting? I feel like Beltre slipped under the radar for a long time, probably driven mostly by his prime years being spent in the wasteland of the Kingdome, both in terms of production and publicity. I always loved him, probably mainly because my one year playing Statis-Pro Baseball (in a SOSH league) was the year after he ruled the world in LA so his numbers were off-the-charts great. He only won 4 Silver Slugger awards, made 4 All-Star games, and won 4 Gold Gloves which adds to the feeling that he was rarely recognized as one of the best 3B's. (I'm amazed he's only won 4 Gold Gloves.)
I think 3000 hits will make a lot of voters, especially old-timers, see him in a new light. But I still wonder if he has enough intangible "best player" quality to overcome the above.
I think 3000 hits will make a lot of voters, especially old-timers, see him in a new light. But I still wonder if he has enough intangible "best player" quality to overcome the above.
I don't disagree that he's been under the radar, but he's not marginal based on the numbers (3,000 hits or not).
B-ref suggests he's the equal of Jones, WAR wise, and both appear to be bracketed by HOF 3B types. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_3B.shtml
And who were the better third basemen during parts of his 19 years? A-Rod, Jones, Rolen, Wright?
Oh, absolutely. I'd rather have the last 5+ years of Beltre over the next 5 years of JBJ (at least I think I would). I only meant it as a "at least we got a couple of very good picks for him" - although those picks could've just as easily been Kolbrin Vitek and someone else who disappeared from pro ball.