AFC Playoff Watch: The Quest for the #1 seed

dcmissle

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I'm not sure a single person is disagreeing that playing at KC would be an advantage for KC.

Of note however, once the Pats offense got Edelman and Gordon they are averaging 31.5 points/game on the road. Dpes anyone really think if we played Detroit tomorrow we'd score 10 points?
10 at Tennessee probably hit the re-set button in this thread. I just hope we can can keep the 2 seed and a week off in January. Which as a practical matter may require 5-1 after the Bye, including a home win v Minnesota and a road win @ Miami. Yes, I’m assuming a loss @ Pittsburgh, which would mean we’ll need two Pittsburgh losses to close this regular season out.
 

BigSoxFan

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10 at Tennessee probably hit the re-set button in this thread. I just hope we can can keep the 2 seed and a week off in January. Which as a practical matter may require 5-1 after the Bye, including a home win v Minnesota and a road win @ Miami. Yes, I’m assuming a loss @ Pittsburgh, which would mean we’ll need two Pittsburgh losses to close this regular season out.
Why are you assuming a loss at Pittsburgh?
 

Super Nomario

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Why are you assuming a loss at Pittsburgh?
They have played five road games. The defense has played like absolute trash in four of them (all except Buffalo) and the offense has played like absolute trash in four of them (all except Chicago). I would not mark down wins at NYJ and at MIA in ink, much less Pittsburgh.

EDIT: not to speak for dcm, who may have his own reasons.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I’m more worried about Pittsburgh now, but yeah, I’ll write down the Jets in ink, they’re trash. Miami is always a toss up, they stink too but weird suit always happens there.
 

wilked

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Gotta sweep the Jets. Gotta beat Buffalo. If they can’t do that it’s a different discussion.

Vikes/Fins/Steelers. Gotta go 2-1 if you want the 2 seed.

If they do all that I do think they are 2 seed though
 

TheoShmeo

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They have played five road games. The defense has played like absolute trash in four of them (all except Buffalo) and the offense has played like absolute trash in four of them (all except Chicago). I would not mark down wins at NYJ and at MIA in ink, much less Pittsburgh.

EDIT: not to speak for dcm, who may have his own reasons.
As bad as the Pats have looked on the road, I have a lot of trouble seeing them lose to the Jets on the 25th.

Two weeks to prepare, with the stink of Tennessee in their heads, and a Jets team that seems to be in utter free fall. Also, a rookie QB, and Bill seems to own them.

Now if the Jets fire Bowles, I could see that giving them some sort of rallying cry. And this game will be the Jets’ Super Bowl.

Still, I’m marking this one down in ink I can’t later erase.
 

dcmissle

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They have played five road games. The defense has played like absolute trash in four of them (all except Buffalo) and the offense has played like absolute trash in four of them (all except Chicago). I would not mark down wins at NYJ and at MIA in ink, much less Pittsburgh.

EDIT: not to speak for dcm, who may have his own reasons.
Yes, that’s our side.

The other side, Pittsburgh has scored 41 against the Falcons, 33 against the Browns, and 52 against the Panthers the last three home games. And they can bring something resembling a pass rush.

I’ll spot Pittsburgh a loss at New Orleans. I’m not really confident about another one on its remaining schedule, though they are a different team on the road.
 

RedOctober3829

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1. Chiefs 9-1
2. Steelers 6-2-1
3. Patriots 7-3
4. Texans 6-3
5. Chargers 7-2
6. Bengals 5-4(wins tiebreaker over Tennessee due to AFC record)
7. Titans 5-4
8. Dolphins 5-5
9. Ravens 4-5
10. Colts 4-5

This Week's Games
KC--vs Rams at Mexico City
Pittsburgh--at Jacksonville
NE--off
Houston--at Washington
LA Chargers--at Denver
Cincinnati--at Baltimore
Tennessee--at Indy
Miami--off
 

E5 Yaz

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I’ll spot Pittsburgh a loss at New Orleans. I’m not really confident about another one on its remaining schedule, though they are a different team on the road.
I wonder if the Jags have any fight left in them. This week could be their "one last shot" sort of game. I'm not expecting it, mind you, but after the fubar in Indy they might be ticked off enough to take it out on the next opponent.
 

DJnVa

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Steelers also play the Chargers, albeit at home. All the AFC contenders have at least 2 difficult games to contend with down the stretch.
 

BaseballJones

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Remaining schedules:
- NE: at NYJ, vs Min, at Mia, at Pit, vs Buf, vs NYJ (I see 5-1 to get them to 12-4)
- Pit: at Jax, at Den, vs LAC, at Oak, vs NE, at NO, vs Cin (I see 5-2 to get them to 11-4-1)
- KC: at LAR, at Oak, vs Bal, vs LAC, at Sea, vs Oak (I see 5-1 to get them to 14-2)

So I see:
(1) KC, 14-2
(2) NE, 12-4
(3) Pit, 11-4-1
(4) Hou, 11-5 (maybe 12-4 and the #3 seed, losing the tiebreaker to NE)
 

dcmissle

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I wonder if the Jags have any fight left in them. This week could be their "one last shot" sort of game. I'm not expecting it, mind you, but after the fubar in Indy they might be ticked off enough to take it out on the next opponent.
Has any team ever win 2 SBs DURING a single regular season?

Tom Coughlin’s stamp is on a team of front running, mouthy dogs.
 

E5 Yaz

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Has any team ever win 2 SBs DURING a single regular season?

Tom Coughlin’s stamp is on a team of front running, mouthy dogs.
Like I said, I don't expect it. But I could see Pitt have a bit of trouble in Jax.
 

dcmissle

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Like I said, I don't expect it. But I could see Pitt have a bit of trouble in Jax.
Or Denver. Or hosting LAC.

At Oak or home in the final against Cincy if it comes to that — as close to locks as you’ll find in this League.
 

BigSoxFan

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Poor Chargers. They could very well win 11 or 12 games but still be forced to win road games in Houston, New England/Pittsburgh, and Kansas City to get to the SB. Whoever is stuck at #4 is going to have a hell of a fight to get to the Divisional Round. The Chargers are really good and if they get a healthy Bosa back, look out.
 

Nator

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It's weird, but for the 1st time since 2009 the Patriots are in the outer layer of the NFL blob.

It is hard to escape the gravity of the blob. You have the deep core blob, consisting of the Raiders, Jets, Bills and teams of that ilk. They will not be able to generate enough thrust to escape the crushing effects of the 2018 blob regardless of how hard they try.

The next level of the blob are the teams that will end up anywhere between 6-10 and 10-6. Sure, you may get into the playoffs as a wild card, or the winner of a shit division, but you are still nonetheless trapped in the blob's gravity well.

The Patriots, Chargers & Steelers are in the outer blob- Likely to make the playoffs, and with the possibility to win the conference championship. However, a bad call here or a key injury there could send them back into the middle blob at any time.

Throughout the NFL, only the Saints, Chiefs, and Rams are orbiting freely outside of the blob.

Yesterday's loss was painful to watch. It should also provide some perspective. This is the 1st time in nearly a decade where the Patriots don't have firm grasp on a first round bye, and still they have the best odds for the #2 seed at the moment.
 

dcmissle

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It's weird, but for the 1st time since 2009 the Patriots are in the outer layer of the NFL blob.

It is hard to escape the gravity of the blob. You have the deep core blob, consisting of the Raiders, Jets, Bills and teams of that ilk. They will not be able to generate enough thrust to escape the crushing effects of the 2018 blob regardless of how hard they try.

The next level of the blob are the teams that will end up anywhere between 6-10 and 10-6. Sure, you may get into the playoffs as a wild card, or the winner of a shit division, but you are still nonetheless trapped in the blob's gravity well.

The Patriots, Chargers & Steelers are in the outer blob- Likely to make the playoffs, and with the possibility to win the conference championship. However, a bad call here or a key injury there could send them back into the middle blob at any time.

Throughout the NFL, only the Saints, Chiefs, and Rams are orbiting freely outside of the blob.

Yesterday's loss was painful to watch. It should also provide some perspective. This is the 1st time in nearly a decade where the Patriots don't have firm grasp on a first round bye, and still they have the best odds for the #2 seed at the moment.
I was pissed yesterday. I’m not now. You and another poster or two have grounded me.

I came into this season with a muddle-through mindset, mindful of the fact that we would likely take a step back on offense due to attrition that could not be addressed under the cap. IF our only two game changers would remain healthy and at the top of their games; IF we could make some incremental improvement on defense; IF rookies could provide a booster shot here and there ... then we could reasonably expect to wind up where we left off AND have a good chance of winning another title. Yes, almost everything would have to break right, but entirely reasonable if everything did.

It’s no longer reasonable. Part of that is on us — you are what you are through 10 games, pretty much, especially if the cavalry isn’t coming off injury lists. The IFs aren’t panning out as I had hoped.

But the greater part of it is something nobody has control over — my muddle-through depended on no super teams. But we have two of them, in the other conference. Not by historical standards, certainly, if for no other reason than the fact that nobody plays “great” defense because the rules don’t let them. But they play defense passably, and they have uber players all over the field on both sides of the ball.

So I landed here: it’s doubtful to me that the Pats could prevail in shootouts over KC or Pitts, and doubly doubtful if those games are away games. But if we were to thread that needle, I think we’d get boat raced by either the Ram or the Saints in the SB — and honestly, that’s something I want no part of. So I’m no longer angry or am I even concerned — for one of the very few times in this century, 2002, 2008, maybe “09 (I had washed that team from my memory bank), I see no real chance of renaming the boat and repainting its stern.

I suspect BB loaded up in “17 figuring, this is it. If so, he was right. He may be too professional to ever discuss it.
 
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Marciano490

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It's weird, but for the 1st time since 2009 the Patriots are in the outer layer of the NFL blob.

It is hard to escape the gravity of the blob. You have the deep core blob, consisting of the Raiders, Jets, Bills and teams of that ilk. They will not be able to generate enough thrust to escape the crushing effects of the 2018 blob regardless of how hard they try.

The next level of the blob are the teams that will end up anywhere between 6-10 and 10-6. Sure, you may get into the playoffs as a wild card, or the winner of a shit division, but you are still nonetheless trapped in the blob's gravity well.

The Patriots, Chargers & Steelers are in the outer blob- Likely to make the playoffs, and with the possibility to win the conference championship. However, a bad call here or a key injury there could send them back into the middle blob at any time.

Throughout the NFL, only the Saints, Chiefs, and Rams are orbiting freely outside of the blob.

Yesterday's loss was painful to watch. It should also provide some perspective. This is the 1st time in nearly a decade where the Patriots don't have firm grasp on a first round bye, and still they have the best odds for the #2 seed at the moment.
I’m not sold on the defense of the Rams, Chiefs or Saints. On paper I thought the Rams D would be great, but they’re giving up a ton of points. It looks like none of those teams will have to play a cold weather playoff game, but I wonder if they have the defenses to get through January.
 

E5 Yaz

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I suspect BB loaded up in “17 figuring, this is it. If so, he was right. He may be too professional to ever discuss it.
I was thinking the other day about what happens if the Saints d-back doesn't screw up the final play against the Vikings. Playing against Drew Brees, rather than Case Keenum, would the Eagles defense do enough to offset mediocre Nick Foles?

I really think that play prevented a Brees-Brady Super Bowl ... which would have been a lot less hard to swallow than losing to Foles's game of a lifetime and the inability to adjust to defending the run-pass alignment.
 

RedOctober3829

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I still think the AFC is up for grabs. KC and Pittsburgh haven't proven they can beat the Patriots in the playoffs. Sure the Patriots looked terrible yesterday but the week-to-week aspect of this league is big. KC can lose to both LA teams. Pittsburgh can lose to the Patriots and the Saints. I'm certainly not giving up hope.
 

BaseballJones

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In years past I felt like the Pats were beatable but if the other team was to win, it would be a close game, while the Pats could crush them. In other words the range would be anywhere from winning by 21 to losing by 7.

Now it’s not that way. Now when they lose, they could get crushed. They lost by 24 at Ten. They got hammered in Detroit. I think to play KC or the Rams or Saints, yes the Pats absolutely could win that game, home, road, or neutral site. But I also think those teams could shred the Pats. So the range is now winning by 7 to losing by 21. A super bowl could definitely be won like that but the margin for error is just so much smaller, and the change of getting absolutely wrecked is much higher.
 

axx

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I think it's more like KC or an NFC team in the SB will put up 40+. It's just a question of whether the Patriots offense can do the same.
 

j-man

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my 02 cents

i had u guys as the fav uthill the tenn game
1 KC/LAC 13-3 I think the chiefs will lose to the rams and Sea and lac will lose to @ kc and pitt or balt
2 NE/PITT 12-4 or in pitt case 11-4-1 pitt looks like 12-3-1 to me right now pitt could lose @ denver before u laugh denver played KC almost as well as u can both times and played the rams good and shouild beat Hou
3 Pitt/ne NE looks like the 3 seed right now yes u will beat pitt but Minn or @ MIA u will most likely lose
4 Hou/tenn Hou is hot right now and basicly can make a SB run if someone other than them knock u out
5 LAC 12-4 unlees they win @ kc not getting the 1 seed
6 TENN/CINY/MIA If tenn wins @ hou on mnf i ex them to get the 6 seed

1 KC
2 Pitt
3 NE
4 HOU
5 LAC
6 TENN
 

wiffleballhero

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In the simulacrum
The Pats are not deep enough.

As goes Gronk, so goes the season. All the other jockeying for position will not add up to a hill of beans if they enter with Gronk injured or any two of their main offensive weapons on the shelf.

But if you do have a healthy Gronk, Michel, Edelman, Gordon, Hogan, and White, well... you might be on to something.
 

InstaFace

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It's likewise moot if any one of Flowers, Hightower or Gilmore go down.

There aren't many teams who could lose a primary non-QB offensive weapon and still be favored to win their conference (or even make the semis). Where would the Rams be minus any of Gurley, Woods or Cooks? The Saints minus Kamara or Thomas? And that's before getting into left tackles or defenders... I'm not sure any team is "deep", by that definition.
 

KiltedFool

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The Pats are not deep enough.

As goes Gronk, so goes the season. All the other jockeying for position will not add up to a hill of beans if they enter with Gronk injured or any two of their main offensive weapons on the shelf.

But if you do have a healthy Gronk, Michel, Edelman, Gordon, Hogan, and White, well... you might be on to something.
This was one aspect of the Steelers the last few years with Bell. When he was hurt the Steelers' offense lost a lot of dimension and was a lot less effective. Moving forward we'll see if the Steelers can establish an effective backup to Conners, they have a tendency to overuse their primary back and not be well prepared if that guy goes down. Same situation to a lesser extent with AB, the Steelers for some reason have been very good at drafting and developing receivers.
 

joe dokes

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The Pats are not deep enough.

As goes Gronk, so goes the season. All the other jockeying for position will not add up to a hill of beans if they enter with Gronk injured or any two of their main offensive weapons on the shelf.

But if you do have a healthy Gronk, Michel, Edelman, Gordon, Hogan, and White, well... you might be on to something.

No team is "deep enough" to have a large margin for injury error AND make it to the final four every year. But yes, if 3 of their best offensive weapons are out or diminished, they will struggle. As will most teams.
 

wiffleballhero

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In the simulacrum
No team is "deep enough" to have a large margin for injury error AND make it to the final four every year. But yes, if 3 of their best offensive weapons are out or diminished, they will struggle. As will most teams.
Yes, but we are not talking about any old team. The exception to this has been... The Pats, but this year seems different.
 

m0ckduck

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It's likewise moot if any one of Flowers, Hightower or Gilmore go down.

There aren't many teams who could lose a primary non-QB offensive weapon and still be favored to win their conference (or even make the semis). Where would the Rams be minus any of Gurley, Woods or Cooks? The Saints minus Kamara or Thomas? And that's before getting into left tackles or defenders... I'm not sure any team is "deep", by that definition.
Sure, any team can be upended by injuries. But it's a matter of degree. When the 2016 Pats lost Gronk for the season, they were able to get just enough out of Bennett to weather the storm. Same with Amendola filling in for Edelman last year. This year feels thinner to me— unless Dawson or Hollister suddenly emerges, there's almost zero redundancy at any offensive skill position. A bit of overlap between White and Michel, but that's about it.
 

eustis22

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I suspect BB loaded up in “17
yes but not well. The 2014-2017 drafts have not panned out. The next man up is a much sharper drop-off than prior years.

The Pats, but this year seems different.
.

Their core group is older. They wouldn't be the first 30-somethings to fall off a cliff, skill-wise. I think 2019 is a rebuild year as cost-cutting over the off season loses a lot of familiar faces.
 

dcmissle

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yes but not well. The 2014-2017 drafts have not panned out. The next man up is a much sharper drop-off than prior years.

.

Their core group is older. They wouldn't be the first 30-somethings to fall off a cliff, skill-wise. I think 2019 is a rebuild year as cost-cutting over the off season loses a lot of familiar faces.

I meant something different — loaded up for 2017, full stop, with a more than usual element of GFIN, expecting a transition this year. Probably a step back, perhaps with new QB following a Brady retirement.

A lot of the moves during the 2017 offseason — especially with Cooks and then moving on from Cooks — is consistent with this. As is a lot of the smoke following the JG trade through the end of the season.
 

tims4wins

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The Steelers received a ton of hype over the last 2-3 years. Everyone expected them to overtake the Pats last year and then when it didn't happen, and then the whole Bell saga happened, and then the 0-1-1 start, they just started completely flying under the radar. For some reason it kind of feels like it will be "their" season - where at the end they can say they came together without Bell and that was the story of their season. Just a gut feeling I have.
 

m0ckduck

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The Steelers received a ton of hype over the last 2-3 years. Everyone expected them to overtake the Pats last year and then when it didn't happen, and then the whole Bell saga happened, and then the 0-1-1 start, they just started completely flying under the radar. For some reason it kind of feels like it will be "their" season - where at the end they can say they came together without Bell and that was the story of their season. Just a gut feeling I have.
Totally agree.

The rational counter would be, when are the Steelers ever healthy in January? By then, there’s always Big Ben banged up, Brown’s tweaked something, etc. They’re so top-heavily dependent on guys who can’t avoid taking lots of contact, and now Bell is already out of the picture.

But it does smell like their season. Owning the Steelers has quietly been one of the most satisfying perks of the BB era— hope it doesn’t slip away this year.
 

BusRaker

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The Steelers received a ton of hype over the last 2-3 years. Everyone expected them to overtake the Pats last year and then when it didn't happen, and then the whole Bell saga happened, and then the 0-1-1 start, they just started completely flying under the radar. For some reason it kind of feels like it will be "their" season - where at the end they can say they came together without Bell and that was the story of their season. Just a gut feeling I have.
Not to mention that the last team to win a super bowl with a regular season tie was the Steelers in Super Bowl IX back in the 1974-5 season. Coincidence?
 

DJnVa

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I meant something different — loaded up for 2017, full stop, with a more than usual element of GFIN, expecting a transition this year. Probably a step back, perhaps with new QB following a Brady retirement.

A lot of the moves during the 2017 offseason — especially with Cooks and then moving on from Cooks — is consistent with this. As is a lot of the smoke following the JG trade through the end of the season.
Is trading for someone like Josh Gordon consistent with it? It was hard to see him as a long-term asset when they got him.
 

dcmissle

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Is trading for someone like Josh Gordon consistent with it? It was hard to see him as a long-term asset when they got him.
Well that’s 2018, and the Gordon acquisition is about having an adequate receiving corps this year. The price paid for him obviously is way below the first rounder surrendered for Cooks.
 

Super Nomario

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I meant something different — loaded up for 2017, full stop, with a more than usual element of GFIN, expecting a transition this year. Probably a step back, perhaps with new QB following a Brady retirement.

A lot of the moves during the 2017 offseason — especially with Cooks and then moving on from Cooks — is consistent with this. As is a lot of the smoke following the JG trade through the end of the season.
I agree the Cooks move was out of character, and I still don't totally understand what they were trying to do there, but I don't see it as necessarily GFIN-y.

My read is that the Patriots look for opportunities to improve their team while staying fiscally sound. So they picked up Cooks - who cost a first but was on cheap money - but then went cheap at edge rusher, letting Long and Sheard go while drafting Rivers and Wise, trading for Ealy, and seeing Ninkovich retire. With a longer lens, they had previously traded away Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins, rather than working out something that could have kept them around for 2017.

I think every offseason kind of works like this, with some moves to help now and some with an eye to the future. This offseason was no different; they let Solder walk, trading for Brown, and traded away Cooks, but they also gave up a third to pick up Danny Shelton and gave Adrian Clayborn decent money. Both of those were moves that figured to help a lot more in the short term than in the long run. On the other hand, they definitely gambled on a weaker WR corps on paper, then had to shore it up with the Gordon trade.
 

dcmissle

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I hear you. But they really loaded up for “17, while “18 looks barely adequate, hopefully on the right side of that line.

Maybe he’s evolving with Brady near the finish line. Two franchises this year, the Rams and Saints, are pretty clearly in a GFIN mode, albeit with QBs at opposite ends of the age spectrum. Their approaches seem to me pretty solid given their circumstances.
 

joe dokes

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I hear you. But they really loaded up for “17, while “18 looks barely adequate, hopefully on the right side of that line.

Maybe he’s evolving with Brady near the finish line. Two franchises this year, the Rams and Saints, are pretty clearly in a GFIN mode, albeit with QBs at opposite ends of the age spectrum. Their approaches seem to me pretty solid given their circumstances.
IMO, "loading up" (or GFIN) implies an effort to get players now that screws up the roster and cap for sometime beyond. The Patriots never seem to intentionally mess with the cap down the road.
 

Super Nomario

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IMO, "loading up" (or GFIN) implies an effort to get players now that screws up the roster and cap for sometime beyond. The Patriots never seem to intentionally mess with the cap down the road.
And I think they are in an unusual position with respect to that this year. The three biggest cap hits on the team are Brady, Gronkowski, and McCourty. All three are free agents after 2019, and they have big hits next year. They are also all close enough to the end of the line that there is risk extending them beyond 2019 to lower the 2018 / 2019 cap hit. They are also still such key players that the team could not jettison them prior to this year. So it made sense for 2018 to stand pat on all three, even though that didn't provide the same space for like a Gilmore signing. This coming offseason will be very interesting with respect to those three. The Patriots have only $24-something MM in cap space with only 44 players under contract.
 

BaseballJones

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I definitely think the Pats will be in for some lean years when Brady retires. The only way I think they can avoid it is if they land a stud QB out of college (even if it's not a high draft pick; just someone who turns out to be really good) and they can have lots of production from that position for hardly any money. That way they can shore up the other spots. Otherwise, the aftermath won't be pretty I don't think. This is the golden age and we're approaching the latter days.
 

dbn

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From FO Playoff Odds, chance of AFC bye:

KC: 91.3%
PGH: 41.1%
NE: 36.8%
HOU: 15.%

No other team in double digits.

Of course and as always, these are for entertainment purposes only, but I guess it at least accounts for remaining schedule in a way. What I take away is that KC is a shoo-in for a bye, and NE and PIT are a toss-up for the second bye.
 

Archer1979

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From FO Playoff Odds, chance of AFC bye:

KC: 91.3%
PGH: 41.1%
NE: 36.8%
HOU: 15.%

No other team in double digits.

Of course and as always, these are for entertainment purposes only, but I guess it at least accounts for remaining schedule in a way. What I take away is that KC is a shoo-in for a bye, and NE and PIT are a toss-up for the second bye.
Looking at the schedule, KC has the Rams which is the game that NE needed KC to lose if the seeding came down to tie-breakers. KC should be able to handle everyone else, but on any given Sunday, you never know. Unfortunately for NE, the "any given Sunday" thing took place last week with the Titans so two games off the pace might as well be fifteen with KC playing as well as they have.

For Pittsburgh and NE, it really comes down to the game against each other in Pittsburgh. Winner should get the number two seed, the loser has home field in the first week of the playoffs.

Unless, of course, any given Sunday hits.
 

dcmissle

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Aug 4, 2005
28,269
The Steelers received a ton of hype over the last 2-3 years. Everyone expected them to overtake the Pats last year and then when it didn't happen, and then the whole Bell saga happened, and then the 0-1-1 start, they just started completely flying under the radar. For some reason it kind of feels like it will be "their" season - where at the end they can say they came together without Bell and that was the story of their season. Just a gut feeling I have.
You’re on to something.

One interesting question is whether Steelers still own Chiefs, or whether Mahomes changes all that. I suspect the latter, but we’ll see.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,453
deep inside Guido territory
1. KC 9-1(at LAR, Bye)
2. Pittsburgh 7-2-1(at Denver)
3. New England 7-3(at Jets)
4. Houston 7-3(vs. Tennessee)
5. LA Chargers 7-3(vs. AZ)
6. Baltimore 5-5(vs. Oakland)
7. Cincinnati 5-5(vs. Cleveland)
8. Miami 5-5(at Indy)
9. Indianapolis 5-5(vs. Miami)
10. Tennessee 5-5(at Houston)
11. Denver 4-6(vs. Pittsburgh)

--Pats win H2H against Houston.
--Baltimore is in due to having division winning % tiebreaker over Cincinnati and then wins conference winning % over Indy and Miami.
--Cincinnati wins H2H tiebreakers over Indy and Miami.
--Miami wins conference winning % tiebreaker over Indy.
--Indy wins H2H against Tennessee.