The 1967 NFL Championship game at Green Bay was -15F with a wind chill of -48F
During the game a fan died of exposure
AFCCG: Pats at Chiefs Buildup
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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During the game a fan died of exposure
Didn’t see it posted and I’m proud that I looked up stats for once. Damien Williams rushed 8 times for 38 yards against us last year. And caught 3 passes for 14 yards.
http://www.nfl.com/player/damienwilliams/2550512/gamelogs?season=2017
http://www.nfl.com/player/damienwilliams/2550512/gamelogs?season=2017
It's certainly understandable why folks would question cover zero against Mahomes. He has a cannon and keeps plays alive much better than Rivers. But they need to confuse and bother him. Aggressive is working--stay that way. Bring pressure, mix up where it comes from, drop guys into coverage, trust man coverage deep. Maybe cover 1.
The missing game was a 10-9 game with about 400 yards of offense total between the two teams, so if anything that just makes the sample look more supportive of the extreme cold favors the defense theory.
Is Brady going to wear a glove? 20 degrees and -4 are not the same thing. I have not seen anything yet. I hope he does.
Looking through that list of cold weather games, I'm not quite ready to conclude cold weather suppresses offense all that much.
There are more low scores than high but it's a pretty small sample in general. Many of those teams seemed to score around normal. Some of those that didn't were warm weather teams which adds another variable. Some games are lopsided and have to wonder if weather has more of an effect on teams losing. Also need to look at wind and precipitation to see how those factor in.
Of course many of those games were also played when the running game was featured and weather would seem to have lesser effect.
Edit: so basically as I type this out, I don't know what I think. Just can't wait until game time
There are more low scores than high but it's a pretty small sample in general. Many of those teams seemed to score around normal. Some of those that didn't were warm weather teams which adds another variable. Some games are lopsided and have to wonder if weather has more of an effect on teams losing. Also need to look at wind and precipitation to see how those factor in.
Of course many of those games were also played when the running game was featured and weather would seem to have lesser effect.
Edit: so basically as I type this out, I don't know what I think. Just can't wait until game time
Yeah as I said above, it just makes sense to me that frigid (not 20s, but near zero) temps would have a bigger impact on offense than defense. Frozen fingers and toes. On offense you need to have skill - skill to hold the ball, throw the ball accurately, catch it with your hands, and kick it long and straight. On defense, just knocking it away is a good play and you don't need fine motor skills to tackle someone. I can picture a lot more incompletions in these temps because a QB just can't get a grip on the ball like he'd like, due to frozen fingers. I can picture receivers not being able to close their fingers around a pass. I can picture a kicker having a much harder time booting it accurately.
Maybe that's all just in my imagination.
Maybe that's all just in my imagination.
All this said, you can never tell. In a sample size of 1 anything can happen. I do feel more comfortable having guys that have played in it before, but who knows.
I just wanna see Sad Kelce sitting on bench as the clock ticks down around 10 pm Sunday night.
I just wanna see Sad Kelce sitting on bench as the clock ticks down around 10 pm Sunday night.
FWIW, apparently the Chiefs are smart enough to practice outside, but it looks to me that their practices this week are not quite going to replicate Sunday's weather (nor will Foxborough's for that matter).
Also, just looking at Weather Underground and Weather.com, both now have the temp looking more like low teens at game time. That would be a major, major difference compared to 0/ -5.
(I still want to know about the glove!)
Also, just looking at Weather Underground and Weather.com, both now have the temp looking more like low teens at game time. That would be a major, major difference compared to 0/ -5.
(I still want to know about the glove!)
i bet it's going to be (tolerable) low teens, and the media is just going out of its way to hype "omfg arctic blast!" right now. looking now more like 15-20 degrees.
I mean if this isn't an omen I don't know what is....
Crazy: There will be a total lunar eclipse Sunday after Patriots-Chiefs. 10:41 p.m. KC time; 11:41 Boston.
Last time there was a total eclipse the night of a big game a Boston team played in Missouri? Oct. 27, 2004.
I swear, Belichick is in cahoots with the solar system.
Crazy: There will be a total lunar eclipse Sunday after Patriots-Chiefs. 10:41 p.m. KC time; 11:41 Boston.
Last time there was a total eclipse the night of a big game a Boston team played in Missouri? Oct. 27, 2004.
I swear, Belichick is in cahoots with the solar system.
I'm not a fan of Cover 0 against a guy like Mahomes because he can extend plays. If you get pressure right away, you might get a sack or a mistake, but he might buy a little time and now your secondary has to hold covering Hill and Kelce and Watkins for an extended period of time. I think they need all the clubs in their bag for Sunday's game, but this isn't one I'd pull out too often. On the other hand, I'm not a fan of the three-man rush in this one. They need to find ways to win matchups with four- and five- man rushes, maybe attacking the guards, which are probably KC's weak point (Erving isn't good and who knows what to expect from Dr. Duvernay-Tardif in his first action in a while). I'm fine with lining up Butler and Flowers over the G, conceding the run a little bit, but blowing up plays periodically.
I also think we might see different approaches based on situation. Maybe first and second down, don't let Hill get over the top. But then when you get to third down, Kelce is the guy you can't let beat you. The third down numbers are kinda nuts: Kelce has 25 catches on 33 targets for 22 first downs; Hill has 20 catches on 35 targets for 18 first downs (but a team-high 379 yards and 4 TDs). No one else has more than 11 targets or 9 catches (both Spencer Ware) or six firsts (Chris Conley). Watkins has only six targets, three catches. So if you can get to third, bracket Kelce, double Hill, play the rest of the Chiefs seven-on-nine. If Mahomes beats you with a deep bomb to Conley or Watkins, so be it. This is also where the Chiefs might miss Hunt - 5 catches on 5 targets on 3rd down for 124 yards and 3 TDs - including a 67-yarder against the Pats.
What about putting Gilmore on Kelce on 3rd downs similar to what the Jets used to do with Revis on Gronkowski?
I would think you would also have to consider that half the teams in the league have only seen generational snow or snow once in awhile. And that cold temps for Seattle are not cold temps for Green Bay as an example.
So if it was 30 degrees in Seattle and GB came to town I would not consider the Weather an advantage for Seattle while "everything else" about home would be. As a matter a fact I would consider the weather a slight advantage for GB.
The question is when does it tip the scales further. If its 15 degrees? 10?
GB vs a Frigid Cleveland at 5 degrees is probably a push.
Converse is true for Miami. If Miami goes to Buffalo in September on an unseasonably hot day (Say 92) you cant really claim that "Bad weather conditions" would increase the chance of Buffalo scoring more points because they are used to this kind of home weather and Miami is not.
Miami @ Dallas when its 97 is a push.
While KC gets cold I think 5 degrees might be extreme for them. And while its "cold" for NE they are better prepared then KC would be. At what point does the temp outweigh, lessen or even equal HFA.
Gilmore might need to be on Hill, but sure, I could see it. Could also see High being really physical with Kelce at the line on third and then passing him off while rushing / containing Mahomes.
Above all, I think they need to mix things up. Pats run a lot of man, and third down is a big man-to-man down, but the Eagles last year in the Super Bowl anticipated the M2M and just killed them on third with wheel routes, rub routes, and other man beaters. They just can't be that predictable Sunday. Obviously they'll play a lot of man, but they need to mix it up occasionally, show man and drop into zone, roll from one-high to two-high, blitz from unusual spots, show blitz and then drop guys, etc.
Agreed, and given the way Mahomes can run, I could see a decent amount of zone on 3rd down actually - let the defenders keep their eyes forward. In man if they are covering they can't see Mahomes and he can just run for easy first downs.
I think the amoeba fronts they've been using as the year went on are also something to test in the first half---Mahomes only has had so many reps and he may or may not process those fronts effectively. If he does (and he may) you can move back to other fronts as the 'base'
For me, this is a game where your assumption should be that you need 35 points and thus you should be willing to take some risks on both sides of the ball knowing it's to a degree likely to be about 'offensive possessions' and that each extra one you steal (going on fourth, turnovers, etc.) and each one you stop will be very big.
For me, this is a game where your assumption should be that you need 35 points and thus you should be willing to take some risks on both sides of the ball knowing it's to a degree likely to be about 'offensive possessions' and that each extra one you steal (going on fourth, turnovers, etc.) and each one you stop will be very big.
I think keeping a few KC drives as FGs, rather than TDs will be big. Butker kicked 24 and 30yd FGs in October. Those are drives stopped at the 7 and 13-yd lines. I know it tightened up, but scoring 3 TDs in the 1st half while allowing 3FGs seemed big at the time.
This all looks pretty good. Key is mixing it up. Secondarily they need to be aggressive more often than not IMO. Yes to 4-5 man rushes, disguising who's coming. No to cover zero, but I'm good with cover 1.
Not sure about committing too much pressure internally though. Mahomes likes to get outside the pocket. Again, mixing it up is key.
And I'd be shocked if they spend Gilmore on Kelce. There are other ways of disrupting him without playing our trump card.
Not sure about committing too much pressure internally though. Mahomes likes to get outside the pocket. Again, mixing it up is key.
And I'd be shocked if they spend Gilmore on Kelce. There are other ways of disrupting him without playing our trump card.
Not sure this is true, or a good approach. It reminds me of the 2004 AFC divisional game against the Colts (or even the prior year honestly). All the talk was that Indy couldn't be stopped. I remember in the first half of the 2004 divisional game, every time the Pats punted I was panicking because the Colts were clearly just going to score a TD on the next drive. Except it never ended up happening and the game ended 20-3, Pats. In fact, the year before KC was so afraid of the Indy offense that they resorted to things like an unexpected onsides kick to steal possessions. I don't like that approach. Line up and play the game in a smart, Patriots way. Go for strategic 4th downs, but no different than any other week (like Sunday against the Chargers in the first half). There is no need to take extra risks IMO, that just puts you in a more vulnerable position.
IIRC, they debuted the amoeba front against the Chiefs in October. Hightower's pick I believe came out of that front where he was moving around pre-snap then snuck back into the middle in coverage and picked Mahomes off.
Lots of weather questions for Bill. One of his answers was great. "Love to be playing in a championship game"
Agreed. Doing so is basically what ruined the Divisional Round game against the Jets in 2010.
I had been thinking about the amoeba front as well. I think the one obvious and largest advantage the Pats have over the Chiefs is experience at QB. Brady has seen everything and is rarely fooled/confused, it sure would be nice if the Pats could throw a lot of funky looks at Mahomes and try to confuse the young QB (I think that's by far their best chance cause we know his athleticism and ability is off the charts.)
I think it's a matter of degree. Certainly, doing crazy onsides kicks is not a good strategy---these teams are too close overall to be doing low-percentage things like that. But there are no examples of Pats acting that way in 20 years so I don't think anyone was (or would) suggest behaving that way.
I do think the Pats assessment of some closer calls---going on fourth vs FG, taking ball vs deferring, etc---are impacted by their view of the game context. The simplest way to show that the Pats actually do think about it this way is to remember the "4th and 2" play vs Indy. I would expect no one believes they would have made the same choice if they were playing a different team/QB with a different defense for them available (they have not made a similar choice in similar field position other times).
If one agrees with those assumptions, then the most likely scenario is that this is a high scoring game and thus those marginal choices lean towards "seek an additional possession/seek TD vs FG" more than in other games.
edit: As to the Jets playoff game, I think they have a standard audible option for the upman to go for it and Chung misread the situation there. That is to say, I don't think (and others may remember better/differently) that was a pure playcall from the sideline to fake there and thus, I don't think that's relevant to this discussion on game strategy.
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I'm not that worried about his running. Mahomes averages more per game passing (318 yards) than he had total running all season (272). I see him more in the Rodgers / Roethlisberger / Luck mold where you're not so much worried about him scrambling as you are extending plays and then making a big play with his arm. Contain has to be part of the formula, but IMO this isn't a Newton / Jackson / Wilson where you're worried about him killing you with his legs.
The "eyes forward" thing scares the crap out of me with Hill - even in zone, someone needs eyes on him at all times.
Contain has to be part of the rush equation. So maybe you have the end on the weak side keep contain, one of your best rushers (Flowers, a blitzer) attack the middle, and then someone scraping from the inside or chucking Kelce then peeling to keep contain strong side. Get pressure on Mahomes, get him off his spot, but don't let him get outside. Slot blitzes are another way to keep contain; they have an angle that makes it hard to get outside.
And Bill respects the hell out of Andy Reid. From everything he said about Reid, you’d think Reid was himself x 1.25. Impressive about Bill: every question reporters had about Chiefs players, including guys that had not been around all year because of injury or whatnot, Bill had detailed answer about their strengths. Bill is the best prepared, there is no doubt about that.
According to Intellicast the avg Jan hi/lo temp in KC is 38/21 and Fox is 36/18. December avgs are similarly close.
I'm not good enough at interneting to find KC's month-by-month record historically.
Rewatching some of the first game, seems pretty clear the Chiefs wanted to go at Hightower and Chung in coverage. Hightower *isolated in space is a problem against pretty much any skill player at this point. Chung can probably hold his own against Kelce for stretches, but if Mahomes can determine its Chung on Kelce he'll go at that matchup. I'll be interested to see how the Pats attempt to mitigate damage done against those 2, b/c they're both going to be on the field for pretty much the whole game.
I seem to recall a stat (and my Google-Fu is failing me ATM) that showed Belichick's record against QBs he is faience for the second time, or maybe it was for the second time in a single season. All Patriot record under BB tend to converge around .750, but I think this was statistically significantly higher than that, theoretically because of what BB gains from seeing a QB in person the first time that he can then leverage for his defensive approach the next time around.
Does anyone recall this study?
Does anyone recall this study?
I don't but I have another one although it wasn't the result you were hoping for. As coach of the Pats, when BB goes up against a team he has not seen before during the season in the playoffs he is now 21-1 (the loss being the SB last year). When it is a rematch in the playoffs of a game played during the regular season BB is 7-9.
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I wonder how much of that is a result of playing a 1st place schedule every year and typically facing more of the iron of the AFC than the borderline playoff teams.
Contrast that with this:
https://deadspin.com/steelers-coordinator-says-his-defense-will-have-a-prob-1831362806
Keith Butler, Steelers DC, three days before the game about a player currently on IR and not scheduled to return:
While the loss of Kareem Hunt hasn't seemed to make that much of a difference in their running game, taking him out of the passing game - a nightmare matchup for High and most other LBs - is a pretty significant difference maker. Spencer Ware has some receiving ability and versatility but he's been hurt. Damien Williams is essentially a screen pass option and a block-then-leak-for-the-checkdown guy that isn't an open field threat. Assuming Ware is still out, they really don't have a RB that can run a lot of routes and present a matchup problem or that can cause havoc if receiving the ball in space. That really decreases my concerns about High. Whether Chung will be able to deal with Kelce is another issue.
I agree that we should at least start by seeing if we can go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs or even run out to a lead, but reacting quickly to Mahomes and the explosive offense if they get ahead will be necessary. Fortunately, there's no one better than BB at understanding game flow and game theory and changing strategy accordingly.
I went back and checked the Ravens game from 14 (the 'Edelman FINALLY threw a pass and it was GLORIOUS' game) to see if they were particularly aggressive. I thought since they broke out the Edelman QB in that game and it was high scoring, that maybe they would have had to have been more aggressive. But, in fact they were remarkably conservative. I checked the boxscore from the Baltimore game and it's just the best (might be my favorite playoff non-Superbowl W post-2004 (nice that we get to be so specific, eh?), although 07 Chargers and 11 Ravens are close and 17 Jax gets honorable mention):
- Pats were 0/0 on 4th down; Ravens were 3/3.
- Pats were 6/11 on 3rd down conversions; Ravens were 1/9(!).
- Pats had 14(!) rush yards and 408 passing; Brady had a rushing TD.
- 4 Pats' WRs had over 50 yards (who wants to guess em).
- Pats WRs had 2 fumbles, and recovered both; Ravens WRs had 1 fumble and recovered.
- Jamie Collins was the Pats' leading tackler.
- Ravens had 1 FG; Pats attempted 0.
- Pats were down 14-0 in 1Q; 28-14 in the 3Q.
-
.Pats won 35-31
(2004 vs. 2018):
Scoring/game/team: 21.5; 23.3
Receptions/game/team: 19.1; 22.4
Receiving yards/game/team: 225.3; 254.4
Completion %...: 59.8%; 64.9%
Passing yards: 210.5; 237.8
So, while there is obviously a tilt towards more passing attempts and yards, it's not so egregious that it would make a huge difference in scoring. Especially when you consider how playoffs are reffed and CBs can be more physical. That obviously favors the Pats in a big way.
Not sure. Since so many of these were close games I think randomness is a part of it. 2 losses were on neutral sites. 3 were at home (Ravens x2, Jets) and 4 were away (3 road losses to Denver and 1 at Indy). Those rematches, aside from Ravens in 2009, were all matches in the later rounds so the rematches were against better teams? Then again with so many byes most of the games they play are in the later rounds anyway.
Also, I made a mistake with BB's record with the Pats. He was 1-1 in Cleveland in the Playoffs. I think that would make him the last Cleveland coach to win a playoff game.
That’s the non-knowledge item from another coach I was thinking that was in stark contrast to Bill, but I couldn’t remember who it was. Thanks.
Again - maybe yes, maybe not. In both AFCCG losses in Denver, BB passed up field goals due to multi-score deficits, only to end up regretting those decisions in the end. While the 2015 Denver team was defense-oriented, the 2013 team was pretty high flying. The point I am getting at is if the Pats have say a 4th and 4 from the 15 down 14-0 in the first quarter, I think I'd rather see them put the points on the board (assuming the weather doesn't make kicking impossible) than try to "get back in the game" by going for it. YMMV. And if you think back to LI, one of the keys to the comeback was actually kicking the FG down 28-9 instead of just blindly going for it.
Some of it is coincidence too. A bunch of those losses were coin flip games (both Super Bowls, the 2015 Denver game). Both Ravens losses they were pretty banged up. 2013 in Denver Talib got injured early. Seems like SSS noise.
How early do the Pats start practices? It looks like early -- like 4-9 am only -- tomorrow morning will be their best bet to replicate game time temps while in Foxboro.
Thanks for your work. I do note that the home team is 7-3 in frigid weather games. But that is not much more at variance from home teams generally winning more than the visiting team any way, so perhaps being at home is not that great an advantage in frigid weather? Especially considering that both teams are cold weather teams.
Interesting fact. The Pats held teams to the lowest passer rating when in man coverage.
The #Patriots will want to change up their looks/disguise defenses so as to not let Mahomes get comfortable, they're still predominantly a man coverage team - for good reason. Opposing QBs complete just 53% of their passes vs. Pats in man with a passer rating of 78.5, best in NFL
The #Patriots will want to change up their looks/disguise defenses so as to not let Mahomes get comfortable, they're still predominantly a man coverage team - for good reason. Opposing QBs complete just 53% of their passes vs. Pats in man with a passer rating of 78.5, best in NFL
One other comment re. frigid weather is that it is a bear to kick in. In the brutally cold Tennessee game (2004?) I remember Vinatieri remarking that kicking field goals was like kicking a block of cement. Added to that a ball may not travel as far in the cold and that with both teams needing TDs and not FGs, we may see the kicking game downplayed.
The same difficulty would hold for kickoffs and punts. So maybe more returns because of the cold? A big game from Patterson perhaps?
As freakishly anal as Belichick is in preparation for special teams it will be interesting to see this part of the game plan play out.
The same difficulty would hold for kickoffs and punts. So maybe more returns because of the cold? A big game from Patterson perhaps?
As freakishly anal as Belichick is in preparation for special teams it will be interesting to see this part of the game plan play out.
Look at the state of the middle of the field after last week's game. Footing is going to be a major issue. One of the end zones is going to be brand new turf.
BB is probably jealous that they still have natural grass. I wonder if they're leaving the tarp off the field this week?