ALDS Yankees v. Cleveland Discussion Thread

jon abbey

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Cleveland has announced their rotation, I will add my guesses for NY's starters:

Game 1, Thursday, Oct. 5

Gray at Bauer, 7:38 p.m. ET (MLB Network or Fox Sports 1)

Game 2, Friday, Oct. 6

Sabathia at Kluber, 5:08 p.m. ET (MLB Network or Fox Sports 1)

Game 3, Sunday, Oct. 8

Carrasco at Tanaka, TBA (MLB Network or Fox Sports 1)

Game 4, Monday, Oct. 9*

Tomlin at Severino, TBA (MLB Network or Fox Sports 1)

Game 5, Wednesday, Oct. 11*

Gray or Sabathia at Kluber, TBA (MLB Network or Fox Sports 1)
 

Murderer's Crow

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I wouldn't question Francona's decision here at all but not starting off your first playoff series with your ace is at least somewhat questionable. Bauer is nothing to sniff at but they're favored in almost every matchup regardless.
 

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I guess what I’m saying is I trust Tito here but I am scratching my head. What’s the justification?
It's certainly a questionable, but defensible move.
I would guess that the justification is that the bullpen will be fully rested heading into the first game, so if Bauer can even go 4 strong innings(maybe even 3+), it will be a success and the bullpen can take over. Then with Kluber in the second game, the bullpen shouldn't, in theory, be needed much. The bullpen will be fully rested for game 3 with an off day. And Kluber would still be available for a Game 5 on regular rest.
 

Murderer's Crow

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It's certainly a questionable, but defensible move.
I would guess that the justification is that the bullpen will be fully rested heading into the first game, so if Bauer can even go 4 strong innings(maybe even 3+), it will be a success and the bullpen can take over. Then with Kluber in the second game, the bullpen shouldn't, in theory, be needed much. The bullpen will be fully rested for game 3 with an off day. And Kluber would still be available for a Game 5 on regular rest.
On the other hand, a loss by Bauer puts a lot more pressure on Kluber who didn’t look great in his tuneup start Sunday. It’s win-win for Cleveland but conventional wisdom says game 1 is pretty important.
 

TheoShmeo

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Is Tito back on the pain killers?

How do you not start your ace, and perhaps the best pitcher in the AL, in game one when he would be going on regular rest? Getting a jump on the series and setting him up for max rest for a game 5 is basic stuff. And that would also give Tito the option of going back to him on short rest in game 4 if the Yankees are up 2-1. Even if Tito would not use Kluber that way, it's nice to have choices.

Since I discount my opening line and know that Tito is very good at baseball, I wonder if Kluber is nursing some kind of injury.
 

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On the other hand, a loss by Bauer puts a lot more pressure on Kluber who didn’t look great in his tuneup start Sunday. It’s win-win for Cleveland but conventional wisdom says game 1 is pretty important.
I totally agree with you and it wouldn't be my preference.. But that's the only justification I could come up with. In essence, make Game 1 a bullpen game and then count on Kluber.
 

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They approached Kluber about his preferences weeks ago. He prefers to remain on his normal four days rest. So that means if you put him in Game 5 on normal rest and count back it's a Game 2 start. Most of the Tribe fan consternation is more about the choice of Bauer over Carrasco once you set Kluber for 2 and 5. Personally I think it's because Bauer has significant road-home splits toward home, while Carrasco has some very good numbers pitching on the road.

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2017/10/heres_why_the_cleveland_indian.html#incart_big-photo
 

Ale Xander

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I guess what I’m saying is I trust Tito here but I am scratching my head. What’s the justification?
The justification is he will be on normal rest for a possible game 5, so that he doesn't overthrow with adrenaline (with extra day of rest). You would have everyone in the bullpen ready to go so he wouldn't have to pitch deep into the game if high on the pitch count. Basically Tito thinks this will make him more likely to be sharp should there be a game 5.

edit: what MR T said.
 

Murderer's Crow

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The justification is he will be on normal rest for a possible game 5, so that he doesn't overthrow with adrenaline (with extra day of rest). You would have everyone in the bullpen ready to go so he wouldn't have to pitch deep into the game if high on the pitch count. Basically Tito thinks this will make him more likely to be sharp should there be a game 5.

edit: what MR T said.
This clarifies it for sure but it’ll come back to bite him in the ass if they need Kluber for a short rest elimination game 4 and not game 5.
 

Ale Xander

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You can't win a 5 game series down 2-1 without winning game 5. It's just math.
 

KiltedFool

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(Nice roethlisberger there crow)

I trust Tito quite a bit, though I do scratch my head a bit. Slotting Tomlin in as the 4th starter and such is a bit worrisome.

And I'm trying to trust Bauer but I still believe if he hadn't been an idiot and had his drone prop strike accident, the Tribe wins that series.
 

pokey_reese

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Yeah, Tito said that they really want to keep Kluber on regular rest, and that it would be good to have him ready for a possible game 5, so I don't think we need to search for some hidden meaning. Also worth noting that in the second half, Bauer was the 19th best pitcher in the majors by fWAR. Of course, numbers 1 and 2 were Kluber and Carrasco, so it's really gonna be hard to make a bad rotation out of that no matter how you order them.
 

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Everything I've read about Kluber suggests he really, really thrives on an established routine. Good on Francona to make that a priority. I think managers can sometimes get carried away with tactical decisions during the playoffs.
 

KiltedFool

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Everything I've read about Kluber suggests he really, really thrives on an established routine. Good on Francona to make that a priority. I think managers can sometimes get carried away with tactical decisions during the playoffs.

Yep. The nickname of Klubot isn't just because of his complete unflappable demeanor on the mound.

http://www.cleveland.com/budshaw/index.ssf/2017/10/corey_klubers_two-seam_fastbal.html

Kluber doesn't "kind of" work on anything. Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway says you know where you can find Kluber based on the day and the hour. His schedule doesn't vary. Gotta go to work. He punches an internal clock.

"It's that calculated," Callaway said. "(Between starts) it's the full routine precisely every time. It's a long season. He's the only guy I've seen who's been able to do it."
 

jon abbey

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I think Francona is the best manager in the game currently, and I really am not questioning him, but game 2 being a 4 PM start makes this a bit more unusual for me, since usually a 4 PM start helps the pitchers for the first few innings, so Kluber in that spot is a bit of a waste.
 

uncannymanny

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Yep. The nickname of Klubot isn't just because of his complete unflappable demeanor on the mound.

http://www.cleveland.com/budshaw/index.ssf/2017/10/corey_klubers_two-seam_fastbal.html

Kluber doesn't "kind of" work on anything. Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway says you know where you can find Kluber based on the day and the hour. His schedule doesn't vary. Gotta go to work. He punches an internal clock.

"It's that calculated," Callaway said. "(Between starts) it's the full routine precisely every time. It's a long season. He's the only guy I've seen who's been able to do it."
This is cool, thanks for posting it.
 

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I do want to caution that I don’t know whether Chapman would have been nearly as effective against the Indians last night. He was helped by poor swings.
 

jon abbey

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CC going back to Cleveland, that's a nice story line too.
 

jon abbey

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Carlos Santana, Lindor and Ramirez all have .500 or better career BAs against CC, 19 for 36 combined. It's almost like Girardi is conceding the Kluber matchup.
 

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Tanaka 9-5 at home, 4-7 on the road this season. Is he going in Game 3 or 4? Severino also an option, unless he gets a bullpen call in one of the first two games.
 

jon abbey

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I think Girardi will probably wait to announce games 3/4, also he said last night that he didn't want to use Green/Robertson in game 1, so maybe he will use Severino in relief as Terry said, if he needs to.
 

jon abbey

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Hopefully NY doesn't get swept and Severino gets another chance, it would suck if last night's start was the end of his fantastic season and he had to sit with that all winter.
 

Van Everyman

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CC going back to Cleveland, that's a nice story line too.
This is a storyline I can get behind.

My two cents: I was at Game 5 in Cleveland, Beckett vs. Sabathia with the Sox down 3-1 in the series -- I went to school in the Cleveland area and my rabid Tribe college roommate was a local, and we had a deal earlier that summer that if the Sox and Indians met in the playoffs we would go. At the time, I lived in DC and had a senior job on a (second-tier) presidential campaign so I had to sneak out that night and take plane to Cleveland.

When we got to the Jake, the place was jumpin'. Lofton was just about to be elected mayor for his heroics in Game 4. The Indians brought out Beckett's ex- to sing the national anthem in the hopes of rattling him. And Sabathia was, once and for all, going to get over his postseason problems.

And then CC makes the first pitch ... pffft. Ball 1. People shift in their seats. Second pitch ... pfft. Ball 2. The guy in front of me shouts, "Fuckin' throw strikes!" And then, Youkilis, the second batter of the game, hits a home run. The air goes out of the place. And then it hit me:

This was exactly like watching Red Sox fans before 2004. Tribe fans were jubilant going into the game but literally at the first sign of trouble, they became emotional basket cases. The Sox ended up winning 7-1 but I almost couldn't enjoy it.

Almost.
 

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Hopefully NY doesn't get swept and Severino gets another chance, it would suck if last night's start was the end of his fantastic season and he had to sit with that all winter.
I think there's no chance he starts Tanaka game 3 if they are down 2-0. Perhaps I'm wrong but saving your ace until game 4 when he realistically could pitch in game 2 is really crazy.
 

jon abbey

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I think there's no chance he starts Tanaka game 3 if they are down 2-0. Perhaps I'm wrong but saving your ace until game 4 when he realistically could pitch in game 2 is really crazy.
Just because he didn't throw many pitches doesn't mean he can come back on short rest for game 2, he's still 23 and close to 200 innings. I mean of course he could, but it doesn't mean it's the right move, especially when his last start was as bad as NY has had all year and Tanaka's last start was as good as NY has had.

I can't say I'm confident in any of these starters against CLE, but at least the other guys have more experience, especially CC obviously.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Just because he didn't throw many pitches doesn't mean he can come back on short rest for game 2, he's still 23 and close to 200 innings. I mean of course he could, but it doesn't mean it's the right move, especially when his last start was as bad as NY has had all year and Tanaka's last start was as good as NY has had.

I can't say I'm confident in any of these starters against CLE, but at least the other guys have more experience, especially CC obviously.
It's the playoffs. I'm not saying it's a good idea to sacrifice a pitcher's future but throwing him in the second or third game doesn't get his innings any higher than throwing him in the 4th (unless there is no game 4). There has been no indication all year that they're trying to be careful with him, otherwise they might have skipped a start or two in August/September.
 

jon abbey

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Game 2 would be short rest, game 3 is full rest, but clearly Girardi trusts Tanaka in that game slightly more than Severino after Severino shit the bed last game. Here's a quote about game 2:

“I was asked, ‘Could you bring him back Friday?’ ” Girardi said of a potential Game 2 start. “I just think, with his workload and what he’s done this season, it’s probably not in his best interests, and the full rest will probably do him some good.”

http://nypost.com/2017/10/05/girardi-wont-rule-out-a-severino-bullpen-appearance/
 

jon abbey

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Oh, another quote from the same article to explain the thinking on games 3/4:

“Tanaka, we don’t want him to go too long [without pitching],” Girardi said. “[With Severino], the extra rest isn’t going to hurt him that extra day, so that’s why we did it.”
 

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Seems like the Yankees do not really have an ace. Most successful playoff teams do. Just look around at the other three AL playoff contenders. Both Tanaka and Severino show flashes. But the real question tonight is what will Sonny Gray give the Yankees?
 

jon abbey

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Seems like the Yankees do not really have an ace. Most successful playoff teams do.
FWIW, Severino was voted onto Jeff Passan's All-MLB first team by "players, general managers, executives, scouts, analysts, writers, broadcasters and other major league personnel surveyed by Yahoo Sports.", beating out Greinke, Strasburg and Verlander for the 5th spot behind Kluber, Scherzer, Sale and Kershaw (nice company!!!). He obviously has much less of a track record than the rest of those guys, but amazing to be in that company already.

https://sports.yahoo.com/2017-mlb-team-150523671.html
 

jon abbey

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Here's NY's ALDS roster, no Clint Frazier, 8 man bullpen:

 

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I hated the Garcia trade, I hated watching him pitch, and I hate that's he on this roster. If he pitches, that game is a loss.
 

jon abbey

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Well, it's good to have a guy you can use for length if you're getting blown out also.
 

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So, one thing that I don't think we have talked much about is the impact of Encarnacion not being in CLE's lineup and the protection he has offered Jose Ramirez. His bat not being there is obviously a huge hole, but the protection he offers the top half of the lineup may be just as important.

Whether he is in the lineup or not on Wednesday could decide who winds up winning the game.
 

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Listening to AJ Hinch on MLB Radio (SiriusXM) talking about management style shifting to a more bullpen heavy game has made picking starters for each game slightly less risky. He stopped short of saying less important but it was clear that the thought process moving through the playoffs is that matching 6 shutout innings from an ace can be done with effective bullpen usage. Seems very relevant for tomorrow's game 5 with Kluber going.