Very little mainboard discussion after going 3-1 on the opening series.
Valazquez pitched great and nothing here
Valazquez pitched great and nothing here
Alex Cora's first season
- Thread starter The Gray Eagle
- Start date
I think something to keep an eye on is baserunning outs. The Sox were horrendous last year, something like 20 more outs than the next closest team. Off the top of my head I think there were five during this series. I'm not sure if this is attributable to Cora, but I believe it bears watching.
I wonder if, as a former bench player himself, Cora's view is that Holt (or any other utility-type player) is more likely to succeed if he does play two or three days in a row, instead of once every 5 or 6 days. Hopefully, as you say, not every week -- and hopfeullly, with an OPS closer to 700 than 500, but when the time comes to rest infielders, figure a way to do it so that the replacement gets a shot of "regular" playing time.
IIRC the baserunning issues were something that was specifically mentioned as a problem when JF was fired, and something Cora is expected to fix. If they continue that's a knock against Cora.
[Broken record alert]...to the extent they are bad "sends," then yes, its fair to lay the blame at the feet of the coaching staff.. But its basically the same players. So in the non-send situations what if the baseline talent level is "shitty baserunners." Call it instinct or skill or judgment, or whatever, a lot of Sox lack a lot of it.
The Twins game was a completely different situation. They were losing in their last at-bat and if they didn't score 2, then their defense would be irrelevant. The Red Sox were winning 3-1 and didn't need to score again to win. It wasn't their last at-bat. If they pinch hit for the catcher then they definitely would need to put in either Vazquez, who was getting the day off, or Swihart, who hasn't caught yet and who isn't as good defensively as Leon.
If we were losing there, I would think we absolutely pinch hit for Leon. If we let Leon hit there when we're losing late, that would be worthy of criticizing Cora for. Not when we're up 3-1 in the 8th though.
I'm optimistic after four games. The baserunning gaffes are frustrating but I'll trust Cora and his staff to make the necessary adjustments as they get more experience in seeing what these players are (and aren't) capable of in real-time game situations. Pitching decisions have been a net positive so far - none of the starters have gone past 95 pitches and the bullpen moves have been good since Thursday. He brought Barnes into the eighth to pitch in the highest-leverage situation at the end of the game - let's hope Cora has the stones to bring in Kimbrel the next time this situation comes up. Every position player started a game over the weekend and the manager seems to be doing a good job of communicating when guys will be used and where. The players seem to love him and seeing the team win three straight close games after getting punched in the mouth on Opening Day says a lot even if it was against the mostly anonymous Rays. Neither Aaron Boone or especially Gabe Kapler had a weekend to brag about so I'm still happy that Cora is our guy.
Last year, the Sox were "credited" with making 81 outs on the bases (11 more than the 2nd place Yankees in the AL) and 31 times caught stealing (112 total). The Texas Rangers made 67 baserunning outs, but were also caught stealing 44 times, for 111 total outs on the bases. Not exactly sure where the "20 more outs" came from, but I've heard the same number thrown around previously, so I could be missing something. But I agree the baserunning outs bear watching.
Back to the Leon pinch hitting situation. In 2017, AL pinch hitters slashed a collective .210/.297/.380/.677. On Saturday, there were 2 potential situations where pinch hitting for Leon may have made sense. One was the top of the 6th when Leon was up with runners on first and third with 2 outs, with Leon facing lefty Yarbrough; Sox were up by 3 runs at the time. The second, and potentially more critical one, was at the top of the 8th when the Sox were up by 2, had bases loaded and two outs, and were facing the right-handed Sergio Romo.
Leon's career OPS split against RHP/LHP is 0.635/0.737. Keeping Leon in against Yarbrough makes sense. Against the right hander in the 8th inning, Cora did perhaps miss an opportunity to pinch hit with Swihart and Devers on the bench. But the numbers above do indicate the difficulty of pinch hitting, and this could have been one of those "regular season Cora" vs "playoff Cora" situations where giving Leon the opportunity at this point in the season is the right move long term.
What does this have to do with "stones"? It isn't a test of wills, or shouldn't be. It's a matter of balancing good tactical management with good personnel management.
The operative narrative is that Kimbrel will assault any manager who dares try it; thus "stones" are necessary.
Last years base running chart fro all teams:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017-baserunning-batting.shtml
Boston was 1st going 1st to third.
Looks like we were 6th in Stolen Bases
Interesting the CS numbers. Texas, LAA, Houston & Mil (all good base stealing teams also had the most CS) League avg was 31 and Boston had 31.
The Outs at home were tops with next in line: Phillies 26, MIL 25, Tex 22, Seattle 21, Houston 20
Aggressive teams. I found an article on our new base running coach, Tom Goodwin,
and his philosophy is to be aggressive. I will try and find and post.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017-baserunning-batting.shtml
Boston was 1st going 1st to third.
Looks like we were 6th in Stolen Bases
Interesting the CS numbers. Texas, LAA, Houston & Mil (all good base stealing teams also had the most CS) League avg was 31 and Boston had 31.
The Outs at home were tops with next in line: Phillies 26, MIL 25, Tex 22, Seattle 21, Houston 20
Aggressive teams. I found an article on our new base running coach, Tom Goodwin,
and his philosophy is to be aggressive. I will try and find and post.
The best part of these threads is where posters assume they have access to the same personnel information or even advanced metrics as the manager. Who knew that having a smartphone or wifi access in your parents basement allows you to know if a guy who seems to be the right PHer or reliever is under the weather or not or has some other reason that might render them unavailable? Or if the team's analytics department has data that conflicts with publicly available information?
We will reach baseball nirvana when the club decides to crowdsource management to SoSH. But not other boards of course - because what do they know?
We will reach baseball nirvana when the club decides to crowdsource management to SoSH. But not other boards of course - because what do they know?
My 1974 neighborhood Strat-0-Matic championship scoffs at your analysis.
Thanks for posting that chart. Interesting stuff. Sox led the league in getting thrown out at 3rd and getting thrown out at home, which are usually the ones that are most memorable due to the proximity to scoring a run. So I guess that's why it seemed like they were getting thrown out a lot. But the chart does show they had a lot of success in other ways with their aggressive baserunning.
Like I said, worth keeping an eye on to see if there's any organiztional changes with Cora.
I agree. Some decisions will always have hidden information informing them. Reliever use seems particularly subject to this.
But can we not think and judge? There are negative moments where the decision clearly seems bad in light of multiple better options. People note their objections. The completely predictable happens. Later one of those options is shown to have been valid at the time.
There are other positive moments where a manager makes a decision that seems, for lack of a better word, elegant. There are no obviously better options, there are no obvious downsides. The players execute or they do not.
Then there's a third category where secret knowledge has no bearing. Brock Holt wasn't fast enough to beat the throw home. It does not matter if he was running 5% faster than usual that day because he ate his wheaties, or was running 5% slower because he was constipated. The staff, full of secret knowledge, what it knew and sent him anyway.
So you're saying that managers should make decisions based on things that are about to happen, because if he can't see the future then what good is he?
Or are you just saying that if a manager makes a decision and the outcome is bad, then that's obviously a bad decision regardless of what information was available beforehand?
No. I was kind of expecting you to post Poyners actual numbers to justify the decision. But whatever, it's a minor thing.
I think base path aggression has some long-term payoffs. It may force the defense to over-react. It puts a team in a position to take advantage of non-perfect throws (how many hundreds of those are there a year?) Of course over-aggression is stupid (like Holt's send) but I think most of us remember those pesky NL teams filled with aggressive runners driving us crazy, even though mistakes were made. We also remember some plodding Red Sox teams of the past. My point? Sometimes it takes time for a team's habits to make it around the league and produce payoff.
Forcing defenders to make perfect throws is sometimes defensible.
Forcing defenders to make perfect throws is sometimes defensible.
That's some really strong conviction for the first series of the season. And that's the problem with a lot of posts right now. In 2016, Leon had an OPS of .764 against RHPs. Swihart managed a .539 OPS in AAA last year. Devers has a large reverse split (.737 against RHP in his brief MLB career). There is certainly a world in which having Leon bat there is a good OFFENSIVE move - regardless of score (winning! - in March!) and personnel situation (rest days, slumps, streaks, illnesses, injuries, BvP matchups, first series of the season, etc., etc., etc... ). That certainly qualifies as a good excuse for not sending up a PH, in my opinion.
The error bars for projected performance for every single player in the league are so large right now, that it's hardly defensible to say that he SHOULD have PH for Leon (or with whom). The point is, we don't know yet what 2018 Sandy Leon is going to look like. We don't know what any 2018 season is going to look like for these guys yet. Last year in March, Pablo Sandoval was being projected to have a better season than Rafael Devers, and Price and Porcello were going to challenge Sale as the staff ace. And, certainly, a first-year manager doesn't deserve to get a feel for how his players perform before we start second guessing and/or crucifying him. Sam Travis has a .948 OPS and Trey Ball hasn't given up a run; what more does he need to know?!
Ah, OK. Thought those numbers were already in the thread somewhere. Here are some of Poyner's career minor league platoon splits:
PA:
vs. L: 190
vs. R: 413
Slash line:
vs. L: .247/.263/.368 (.631 OPS)
vs. R: .206/.259/.314 (.573 OPS)
BABIP:
vs. L: .308
vs. R: .285
K and BB:
vs. L: 23.7%/2.1%
vs. R: 29.8%/6.3%
The BABIP difference explains some of the reverse split, but it's not a huge or terribly suspect gap, and since the number vs. RHB has a considerably larger sample, you'd expect it to be closer to meaningful than the number vs. LHB.
In short: as a minor league pitcher, at least, Bobby Poyner has had no trouble whatsoever getting righthanded hitters out. If he's ready to face MLB hitters at all, there wouldn't be any apparent reason to shield him from righties, especially when those righties have no track record as lefty-mashers.
Of course we don't have the info. We never had any info when Farrell managed either, so in retrospect we all probably owe him an apology.
I very much doubt there is an existing metric that has Leon as a better option than all three of Swihart, Devers and Ramirez. I'm sure that as always he had his reasons that we aren't privy too, but that particular aspect is a stretch.
Tangential argument, but what metric(s) should we be using on 3/31/18 to make that decision? Career OPS? 2017 OPS v RH? MLB or AAA? 2018 spring training OBP? 2018 late and close vs Sergio Romo? I wouldn't argue Leon is a better hitter than any of those guys, but at a given point in time he has shown he could be the best option (certainly the 1st half of 2016). What information do we have on the third day of the season that conclusively tells the manager or us what he should do? I don't have any problem with the manager letting his guys prove (or not) themselves in some of these types of situations until he has a better grasp of who he wants to put in them.
JDM is not in tonight's lineup in an NL park. This after he played the last 2 games in the outfield in an AL park, on turf. Unless there's something amiss physically with JDM, I find this puzzling.
I would work my way backwards from his career wRC+ of 68 vs right handed pitchers and that he is especially shitty vs sliders. Not just last year. And if we really want to get SSS happy, look at Hanley and Devers at #2 and #3. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=7&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d.
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Best guess: Johnson's a FB pitcher, so Cora wants his best outfield out there.
He might also want to give Benintendi and JBJ a chance to break out vs. a rookie RHP.
This is tough to start the season. Get everyone some action to open and go from there.
Playing the field might be puzzling, but the lighting at The Trop is shit and given the number of games there it’s an adjustment, even factoring in his past visit as a Tiger.
The Sox also max out on turf for visiting teams thanks to the Jays. That probably is a factor too.
Hell , its an adjustment watching games there as a fan. Most spring training stadiums have better lighting.
I can still hear the cowbell from the ninth inning yesterday. I blame Kelly.
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Why? Yesterday Cora said he asked Nunez what game he wanted off and asked Martinez what game he wanted off.
So very true. I was in the LF stands for batting practice on Fri and Sat and I couldn't believe how hard it is to track balls against the dome roof with those lights.
Ah, there you go. I was unaware that it was JD's call. I figured that being from Miami he'd probably want to play in the 2 games there.
Expected runs with bases loaded, two out in 2017: 0.73 runs
Sandy Leon career BB% vs. RHP: 7.6%
1B%: 15.3%
XBH%: 4.2%
HR%: 1.5%
Out%: 70.1%
(.076 ⋅ 1) + (.153 ⋅ 2) + (.042 ⋅ 3) + (.015 ⋅ 4) ≈ 0.57 expected runs
Rafael Devers career BB% vs. RHP: 6.2%
1B%: 13.5%
XBH%: 5.7%
HR%: 4.1%
Out%: 70.5%
(.062 ⋅ 1) + (.135 ⋅ 2) + (.057 ⋅ 3) + (.041 ⋅ 4) ≈ 0.667 ⋅ 0.9 ≈ 0.6 expected runs
Jackie Bradley career BB% vs. RHP: 9.5%
1B%: 13.6%
XBH%: 5.9%
HR%: 3.9%
Out%: 67.3%
(.095 ⋅ 1) + (.136 ⋅ 2) + (.059 ⋅ 3) + (.039 ⋅ 4) ≈ 0.7 ⋅ 0.9 ≈ 0.63 expected runs
The Book says to handicap pinch-hitters' productivity by around 10%.
No, I did not factor in The Will to Win. No, I would not have pinch-hit Vázquez or Swihart. Yes, this is hacky, back-of-the-envelope pseudoscience. In case you're wondering, Devers's BABIP versus right-handers is .280.
I still would have pinch-hit for Sandy, anyhow, because that guy is fucking useless; also because I think it's silly that Váz was given an irreconcilable day off on the third day of the season. And I would've chosen Devers.
Sandy Leon career BB% vs. RHP: 7.6%
1B%: 15.3%
XBH%: 4.2%
HR%: 1.5%
Out%: 70.1%
(.076 ⋅ 1) + (.153 ⋅ 2) + (.042 ⋅ 3) + (.015 ⋅ 4) ≈ 0.57 expected runs
Rafael Devers career BB% vs. RHP: 6.2%
1B%: 13.5%
XBH%: 5.7%
HR%: 4.1%
Out%: 70.5%
(.062 ⋅ 1) + (.135 ⋅ 2) + (.057 ⋅ 3) + (.041 ⋅ 4) ≈ 0.667 ⋅ 0.9 ≈ 0.6 expected runs
Jackie Bradley career BB% vs. RHP: 9.5%
1B%: 13.6%
XBH%: 5.9%
HR%: 3.9%
Out%: 67.3%
(.095 ⋅ 1) + (.136 ⋅ 2) + (.059 ⋅ 3) + (.039 ⋅ 4) ≈ 0.7 ⋅ 0.9 ≈ 0.63 expected runs
The Book says to handicap pinch-hitters' productivity by around 10%.
No, I did not factor in The Will to Win. No, I would not have pinch-hit Vázquez or Swihart. Yes, this is hacky, back-of-the-envelope pseudoscience. In case you're wondering, Devers's BABIP versus right-handers is .280.
I still would have pinch-hit for Sandy, anyhow, because that guy is fucking useless; also because I think it's silly that Váz was given an irreconcilable day off on the third day of the season. And I would've chosen Devers.
Well, his most obvious replacement (Ramirez), since there was no DH, was the star of the game IMO. I guess Benintendi could have sat, but he did get off the schnide and scored a run. He’s also much better defensively.
I dont know but factors like turf and the crap stadium that is the Trop, should count for something, but do we really need to baby JDM like this more so than other players on the team.
He's only played more than 123 games once (120 and 119 the last 2 seasons). If "babying" him gets him to 140 or 145, then the answer is "yes."
Yeah, I don't have a problem with rotation of players early in the season. Most managers want to get their guys some sort of rest early as they ramp up to seasonal scheduling.
Projections are pretty much the best starting point for these sorts of decisions, especially this early in the season. Neither Leon nor Devers has been in the majors for long enough for their L/R splits to contain any meaningful information, and I am certainly hopeful that Cora is intelligent enough not to be looking at spring training numbers or ridiculous small sample splits.
A ZiPS/Steamer blend gives projected wOBAs of .287 for Leon and .341 for Devers, even before accounting for the platoon advantage (which is ever so slightly larger than the pinch hitter penalty, essentially a wash). That's a huge difference, and even with a two run lead Swihart would have to be mind bogglingly bad for his defense to hurt the team more than Dever's bat in that spot would help.
Any defense of this decision rests on showing confidence in players and other incalculable but nonetheless important stuff. From a pure tactical perspective of minimaxing win probability for this game, Devers should have hit.
Any defense of this decision rests on showing confidence in players and other incalculable but nonetheless important stuff. From a pure tactical perspective of minimaxing win probability for this game, Devers should have hit.
+100.
Seriously, there are reasons why Vazquez sat for Leon on Saturday, why Sale was pulled after 6 innings on Opening Day, etc. Cora and DD both made it clear that they will ramp up their regulars, in particular their starting pitchers, slowly early in the season.
4/4 off
4/6 off
4/8 off
(then 13 in a row)
I don't disagree with the greater point. And it's good to get the subs extra playing time early on - preferably that would happen in blowout games.
4/6 off
4/8 off
(then 13 in a row)
I don't disagree with the greater point. And it's good to get the subs extra playing time early on - preferably that would happen in blowout games.
Imagine how great it must be to know ahead of time, as a player, that you'll have (say) next Monday off. You can plan your routine around it. You can work for a manager who doesn't think every decision is do-or-die over 6 months. You can work for a manager who apparently, in Houston, learned the benefits of not playing everyone to death before the dog days come.
Thing is, you're going to lose some games with your best starters out there and you're going to win some games with some of your best sitting. It's not something to over-react to. Sounds pretty damn smart to me.
Thing is, you're going to lose some games with your best starters out there and you're going to win some games with some of your best sitting. It's not something to over-react to. Sounds pretty damn smart to me.
IIRC, this was something that Francona liked to do, occasionally to the consternation of media and posters here, because occasionally it meant a particular player not only didn't start a game that media/fans thought he should but also was considered unavailable for the game barring emergency. (not to mention his famous Sunday getaway lineups)
Obviously at this point in the season, a player with a day off isn't so overworked that he can't pinch hit or sub in later in the game, but I imagine those situations will occur if the first weekend has been any indication of how Cora is going to operate. There will probably be days where someone like Martinez or Betts or Bogaerts is not only sat out of the starting lineup but doesn't get the call to pinch hit that night either.