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Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by bosox79, May 22, 2017.
Bouton simply shakes his head.
Was t the second HR tonight a fastball away? I only saw a replay so I could be off.
it was. maybe he's turned the corner. but will he keep being platooned with Young vs lefties? remember he didn't start on the 3rd and was pretty slumpy until this series
Yeah, he's shown enough bat lately that I definitely jumped the gun a bit worrying about that May stretch.
Benintendi was a home run pick by Cherington. Kid is going to average 4-5 wins a year for a long time.
It has been a month and this is why you shouldn't send Benintendi down and deal for a league average OFer. He just needs to work the speed bumps out at the major league level.
We'll run into the same type of thing with Devers. It use to be called a Sophmore slump, but with all the video work, pitchers quickly develop a book on hitters holes.
The following year the same 3 did it again though one was technically not the starter.
Steve Lyons got 88 starts in CF to Armas' 79
In 2002 Manny, Trot and Daubach hit 33, 24 and 20 respectively though Dobbie played much more 1st than OF (54 starts at 1B to 39 OF and 28 DH) and Damon, the regular CFer hit 14.
Already noted above.
Although I must admit that I'm still finding the complete devouring off SSS time periods and these "the kid has fully arrived!" bumps every time AB has a big day a little over the top. Entering yesterday he ranked 16th among 23 qualifying left fielders in OPS, and 15th in FWar. Yesterday was good enough to boost him up to 12th/9th respectfully, and apparently help spawn a best Sox outfield of all time nod/thread.
Again, I'm glad my questioning on whether a temporary demotion to AAA would help him turned out to be an over-reaction. But I was never really questioning whether or not the kid had a great overall floor potential either, nor am I with a lot of you (yet) in already putting him up there on the Fred Lynn mantle. Personally, I'd still need to see how the second half plays out before being ready to go there.
He's been incredibly streaky this year but 116 games into the season, Ben10 leads the Redsox in OPS with an .808 mark, slashing .280/.359/.448.
He's been really hot in August, slashing .484/.541/.968 in 36 PA. At the end of July, he was hitting .262/.344/.404.
More on that, who would have thought the Redsox would be up 4.5 games if I told you Ben10 would be leading the Sox in OPS with an .808 mark on August 12th?
Or that Price and Porcello would have 11 wins between them. Baseball is a crazy game.
Because he was up last year we truly forget the age of this guy...
I don't know, his face is a pretty good reminder.
The fact that many many many prospects his age are in A ball is something that is pretty easy to forget.
Honestly, he's a budding superstar on this game. It's him and Mookie as far as ceiling goes.
Honestly, as far as ceiling goes, Devers is above both of them.
AL East is incredibly weak this year. Normally you would not be sniffing the division without 95+ wins. This year nobody else looks like they hit 90 W and we are on pace for 92
We won the East last year with 93 wins and Toronto won the year before with 93 as well. I think the competitive landscape has changed a lot in the East. Because most teams are competitive, 95+ wins are a tough ask.
Divisions by overall divisional run differential:
NL West: 105
AL East: 64
AL West: 44
NL Central: -14
AL Central: -85
NL East: -114
The imbalanced schedule makes it very difficult to judge the quality of a division by the division leader's won-loss record. There's pretty strong evidence that the AL East is the second strongest division in baseball behind the NL West. It's tougher to compare across leagues with confidence, but the gap is wide enough that I'm pretty sure the NL West is better.
Might be "weak" but Sox are up to the 4th best record in majors, and about as close to #2 and #3 as the Yankees are to them.
Toronto's last place 55-61 is better than any other last place team and some 4th place teams. The AL east also has no complete shitbags like SF, chi, Phil oak and cin.
Betts just finished second in all of MLB in WAR (BRef), behind only Mickey Mantle, at 23. So you're basically saying Devers could be the Sistine Chapel. I like Devers but I'll stick with Betts for ceiling.
Edit: what I mean is, I'll bet against Devers or Benintendi ever putting up a 9.5 WAR, which is Betts' floor since he already did it, as excited as I am about both of them.
Devers would basically need to be peak Miguel Cabrera as a hitter on top of winning a gold glove to beat Betts ceiling.
Regarding the budding superstar thing, I think we need to pump the brakes a bit on Benintendi too until he can do this for a few months. He was hovering below league average as a hitter as a left fielder before this hot stretch.
He'll likely have better seasons than this one, which is objectively, a good not great one so far.
The division with the second most wins in baseball is weak?
Or one could conclude that WAR is hardly an exact science, which leaves any absolute measuring value you try to pull out of Betts' total last year highly debatable at best. Especially when it's ticking in with a fairly sizable defensive component to it.
That WAR is even allowing one to enter a Mickey Mantle ceiling comparison there also just serves to highlight that more then anything else btw/imo. Mantle followed up his age 23 season with winning the triple crown. Betts is currently flirting around at the .800ops mark in what's becoming a *very* friendly offensive era. The reality based offensive ceiling potential between the two doesn't look like anything even remotely close to being similar.
If Devers has the chance to be peak Miguel Cabrera at 3B with even a tick above average defense, I'd personally take that ceiling over Betts' too.
It's not like Betts was one and done with his defense and baserunning last year, -we have a healthy sample of him being one of the best defenders in baseball. We may have seen his best season, I'm just saying it's pretty unlikely Devers will be able to approach what Betts did last year, much less be an MVP runner up.
I'd be happy if he's Anthony Rendon.
Yeah, going back over the last 15 years or so. Its relative. Only 2 teams over 500 and nobody on pace to win 95+
The division has a cumulative SRS of +0.8 which is tied with the NL West.
Yes, last year's division was stronger top-to-bottom but that was a fairly exceptional year.
What's the significance of a 95+ win team relative to divisional strength? Btw, the Sox are on pace for about
Doesn't a 95+ win team suggest divisional weakness, given the unbalanced schedule?
You realize this generally means, since the teams play each other so much, that all the teams are pretty decent?
The average AL East team has a .513 winning percentage. That's behind only the NL West.
Let's also ignore that until 3 days ago there was only one team was under .500 and that team wouldn't be in last place in any other division.
Years ago, before his fall, EV had a method with multiple recursions against each team to determine the "true" strength of schedule for each team. Did anyone else ever implement this method? It would be interesting to see the results of that for this team and division.
At the end of July into August, Benintendi got a few days off. Since then...
9 g, 35 ab, 10 r, 16 h, 4 hr, 12 rbi, 5 sb, 0 cb, .457/.524/.886/1.410
So yeah, welcome back Benny!
That's not how ceilings and floors work. Betts' floor is way way WAY lower than 9.5 WAR in any given season. Jesus.
And I know we don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but isn't Devers offensive ceiling much higher than Betts? I understand that Betts is a great defender, baserunner, and hitter, but "best case" Devers is, what, Kris Bryant? Especially if Devers can actually play 3B which it looks like he can, so far? I think Devers, Betts and Benintendi have comparable ceilings, that is what makes this team so exciting! Devers is 20!
This is a quibble, so please take it as such, but I don't think you can make a reasonable argument that Devers has the ceiling of what Kris Bryant is now. I mean, Bryant himself didn't have this ceiling. He's the rare rare exception that busted through his ceiling to become a generational player. There's a reason comps like that get laughed at.
That said, I'd be thrilled if we get 85% of Bryant out of Devers, and I think everyone else should be as well. That's still an all star.
Also, one more quibble if you'll humor me... I'd change the first bit to say "higher ceiling at the plate" not "offensive ceiling" as base running is a major part of the latter and I think Betts has better contact skills than Devers will ever display. Devers has a good chance of having more power (though Mookie is no slouch there) and can tap into that power to all fields better than Mookie will ever be able to. But as much as I talk about Devers having very good contact skills, Betts is out of this world in that category (10th in the majors this year in swinging strike %).
Devers doesn't have an alarming strikeout rate by any means, but he swings and misses at a more normal rate and his 23% strikeout rate probably isn't too much higher than where he'll live during his career. I'm guessing 18-22% most years.
You are absolutely correct. And, in fact, 9.5 might be Betts' ceiling. Maybe last year was the best year he'll ever have in the majors. It's entirely possible. I mean, most players never sniff a 9.5 WAR season.