Antoine Played in the Wrong Era

slamminsammya

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I don't know what got me thinking about this, but today I was reliving some memories of the Rick Pitino/ Jim O'Brien era Celtics teams and especially my fond memories of Antoine Walker. My basketball consciousness started right around 1998 when I wa 9 years old, and so 'Toine and Paul will always have special places in my heart as those hometown athletes of your youth usually do.

Remembering his game it dawned on me that Antoine would have fit perfectly in today's NBA. He was an awkward star back in the day - he was the best player or second best player on a number of bad to mediocre teams, and I recall him being included among the first targets of the nascent consciousness of the "chucker" phenomenon and the move towards efficiency.

Here are some facts: Antoine was a 6'8" forward who could move with the ball like a guard, capable of both finessing bigger defenders and overpowering smaller players down low. He had great court vision and passing ability for a foward. He was a smart defender who could guard out on the perimeter and struggled with players who stuck around the hoop (Kenyon Martin). And boy oh boy could he shoot the three: In his prime he was around 36%, which is not amazing, but keep in mind he had the greenest green light I have ever seen besides Steph Curry, and according to my memory probably half of those were basically from halfcourt for no other reason than why not?

Finally, he used to take a lot of crap from announcers and the media for his shimmy, which as a kid I loved and mimicked whenever I could. Nowadays it seems like half the league has some signature dance or move they do after hitting a big shot, and I love it.

I just felt compelled to share my renaissance of love for 'Toine here. It would be great to have seen him in today's era. I think his career could have gone a lot better with some more structure and in the overall basketball philosophy of todays NBA.
 

MarkBT

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I was actually pondering the same thing recently. But you're right - 'Toine's game would have been much better suited to "today's" NBA in which pace and spacing are emphasized on offense, and switching around the perimeter is key to the success of any defense.

'Toine's game would have evolved much differently on the right team in the current NBA era. His peak season was rather impressive at age 24: 23/9/5.5 with 44/36/74 shooting. I think its reasonable to suggest his 2PT% would rise a bit in an offense where is shots were based off high screen and rolls and ball reversals as instead of mid range isolations and late shot clock chucks from range.
 

MarkBT

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Walker was a career 32.5% 3P shooter and had exactly two years of 36% or greater. He was a pretty crappy shooter.
One of the assumptions I make in this hypothetical is that Walker would shoot better 3P's in today's NBA than he did in the Pitino/O'Brien offense, that would presumably raise that shooting % to a more impressive rate.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Maybe if he kept himself in better shape he'd do well. I think he'd struggle with the pace of today's game.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Bunch of 'toine haters in here.

I'm with you, SS. He wouldn't have fit in perfect as he wasn't athletic enough to guard multiple spots on the floor, but if his shooting were tailored around spacing his whole career, I think he would have been a lot of fun.

Still, I think you're looking at the wrong Celtic of that era. The last ten years of PP career, he was essentially a 40% 3-point shooter. The first 8 or so years of his career, he was a sneakily good defender. He was always in the top players in the league in steals, and was often tasked (when James Posey wasnt around in the later years) with defending the better perimeter players each night.

In today's games, he could be a 2-4 ball handler who could shoot 40%+ from 3 and defend most 2-4's each night.
 

mt8thsw9th

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Walker was a career 32.5% 3P shooter and had exactly two years of 36% or greater. He was a pretty crappy shooter.
He was a pretty crappy overall player. Had he been drafted by a contender, he would have never had the chance to put up 20+ shots a game. The first legit contender he was with (no, the early 2000s Celtics weren't one) gave it a whirl for a year and then moved on. The Heat finally used him properly, and he had his only season with a eFG% over .500.

I can't imagine there are many players in NBA history that played as many minutes and were as inefficient players.
 

IdiotKicker

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One of the assumptions I make in this hypothetical is that Walker would shoot better 3P's in today's NBA than he did in the Pitino/O'Brien offense, that would presumably raise that shooting % to a more impressive rate.
Walker was a career 63.3% FT shooter. He's a career 45% 2P shooter. What part of his shooting suggests there was latent talent that could have been harnessed if only he improved his miserable shot selection?

I love Antoine for what he was - a volume shooter who scored 20 a night on 20 shots and had the occasional huge game that was a ton of fun to watch. But any stat related to Toine's shooting is generally pretty bad.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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My basketball conciousness also started around when I was 8 or 9 years old during the 2001-2002 season. 'Toine was my favorite player with Walter McCarty a close second thanks to Tommy. I don't remember much other than that he was entertaining.

He was doing what guys like Steph and Lilliard do before it was cool. Also a great call by Gorman.
 

ALiveH

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I was a huge 'toine fan at the time. But, when one looks back, the stats he put up were bad. All his advanced stats were bad (like he was a huge net negative on the court every single season). I mean even Allen Iverson, who grew up in the same era and had the same reputation as a consciousless chucker had some years of great advanced stats. If the argument is that 'Toine had a combination of physical attributes / skills that would be utilized differently and therefore would have put up much better stats, that's unprovable & unfalsifiable fan faction, but then would AI have been even better?
 

moondog80

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At his peak Antoine had 3 consecutive seasons where he played 41.9, 42.0, and 41.5 MPG, and he missed a total of 6 games in that span. LeBron led the league this year with 37.8 and missed 8 games. So there's that. But durability aside, yes, he was overrated. I think most of us were shocked when he was traded for what seemed like a light return, but we ended up with Delonte West and Rajon Rondo (via Jiri Welsch) so this was an early win for Ainge.
 

slamminsammya

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I was a huge 'toine fan at the time. But, when one looks back, the stats he put up were bad. All his advanced stats were bad (like he was a huge net negative on the court every single season).
Sorry but this is simply not true. BPM really liked Antoine when he was on the C's except for his last year.

Things people need to keep in mind looking at his numbers:
  1. It was a different (more defensive) era.
  2. He was playing in an offense with absolutely no structure and no creator. Pierce was a scorer but not really a playmaker at that time. Kenny Anderson was the PG for most of it. And Jim O'Brien's offense was basically "run down and take a three if you want, otherwise go crazy".
  3. He played massive minutes. He led the NBA in minutes in I think 2002. This is crazy when you consider the shape he was in. You have to think he would be more effective in today's NBA playing less insane minutes.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Hmm, mercurial 6'8", 240+ Point forward with great passing and ball handling ability for his size. That sounds familiar.

Favorite comment: "Why do you shoot so many 3s?" "Because there are no 4s."

Antoine may have shot better if he had more shooters surrounding him and he was a good enough passer (and sometimes willing) to open up the floor. I agree that an Antoine Walker type of player would be pretty coveted around the league in this era. In some ways, he's like a bigger Marcus Smart but without the preternaturally quick hands.

AW shot chart.png
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think he'd be far more effective in today's game but he wouldn't be as big a name. Probably be a 3rd option putting up 15, 8, 4.5 a night on slightly bettter shooting. Looking for an active player that would resemble Walker and can't really think of one. His passing makes him a hard comp. His twin Josh Smith was somewhat similar but blocked way more shots and wasn't as good a passer. Blake Griffin is much more effective and didn't add the 3 until this year. Paul Millsap?

Also, Walker indirectly lead us to acquiring Kevin Garnett too. Didn't we flip Raef for Ratliff who was contract fodder for KG?
 

saintnick912

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That chart sort of lines up with my memory of him missing an insane number of shots within a few feet of the rim. Like he'd get close, put up a layup, and brick it. Over and over.
 

BigSoxFan

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That chart sort of lines up with my memory of him missing an insane number of shots within a few feet of the rim. Like he'd get close, put up a layup, and brick it. Over and over.
Yeah but the spin move to get there was so pretty!
 

Devizier

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Antoine played in the wrong era because people (myself included) did not know how to properly evaluate his contributions.

He looks a lot better by modern metrics than he did by the traditional box score stuff and even Dean Oliver's numbers.

That said his incredible decline at age 26 was indicative of his inability to stay in shape -- Ainge got off the Antoine boat just in time.
 

Eddie Jurak

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He was also a complete disaster when it came to running a fast break. Rozier, who also can't do it, reminded me a lot of Antoine in that regard.
 

Marbleheader

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Could have drafted Kobe or Steve Nash. With better drafting, the late 90s Celtics could have been damn good even without Duncan.

Sent from my SM-G950U using SoSH mobile app
 

LondonSox

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He was an inefficient chucker. Even in that modern metric he gets all his value on defense, apparently he was better than Tim Duncan in some years, eg 2002 was he the best defensive player in the NBA?

I am pretty dubious he was that level of good defensively
 

slamminsammya

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He was an inefficient chucker. Even in that modern metric he gets all his value on defense, apparently he was better than Tim Duncan in some years, eg 2002 was he the best defensive player in the NBA?

I am pretty dubious he was that level of good defensively
Which modern metric are you referring to? By BPM in his best season (2002) 3.6 of his 3.9 value came on offense. He was a 5 win player that season (which is just BPM times playing time, essentially), by the way, which for context is what players like Chris Paul, Karl Anthony Towns, and Demarcus Cousins just put up last season.

Edit: I see what you were referring to. But again, people need to put the chucking in context. He was a chucker. Yes. I'd imagine someone like Damian Lillard would have also been an inefficient chucker back in the day. It was a different game. That is part of the thought experiment!
 

LondonSox

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I'm surprised he was that good a defender, you guys saw a lot of him does that pass the smell test?

As for the argument the game was bad so everyone was inefficient. That would seem to be provable if true.
Is the average 3% percentage higher across the board and if so can you normalize.
Looking back the leaders in percentage are similar but perhaps they drop off faster.

It's an interesting argument not one I am sure I believe. People shot less 3s so has the average look actually got better? There's are plenty of bad 3s taken now.
 

slamminsammya

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I'm surprised he was that good a defender, you guys saw a lot of him does that pass the smell test?

As for the argument the game was bad so everyone was inefficient. That would seem to be provable if true.
Is the average 3% percentage higher across the board and if so can you normalize.
Looking back the leaders in percentage are similar but perhaps they drop off faster.

It's an interesting argument not one I am sure I believe. People shot less 3s so has the average look actually got better? There's are plenty of bad 3s taken now.
Offense was almost certainly worse in the early 2000's for a variety of reasons. However I am not sure 3 point percentages overall would be worse. In fact I would guess they were better back then, because generally players were much more selective about shooting threes. These days everyone is told to launch them - even if you miss, there is the long term strategic goal of stretching out the defense.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Offense was almost certainly worse in the early 2000's for a variety of reasons. However I am not sure 3 point percentages overall would be worse. In fact I would guess they were better back then, because generally players were much more selective about shooting threes. These days everyone is told to launch them - even if you miss, there is the long term strategic goal of stretching out the defense.
Players might have been more selective, but offenses were less focused on creating good looks from three. Could be a wash.
 

Devizier

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I'm surprised he was that good a defender, you guys saw a lot of him does that pass the smell test?
It does for the Obie years.

People forget that those Celtics were kind of a prototype for the modern NBA, leading the league in 3Pr with an emphasis on getting back to defend in transition. They were shit on the offensive boards which had to do with lack of size and positioning (doesn't that sound familiar?). That system fit Antoine as well as any other, and it covered up many of the glaring deficiencies on the roster. 'Toine made some absolutely brutal decisions with the ball and could be infuriating to watch but he was an effective player, at least until he became fat and effectively finished as a starter by his 28th birthday.
 

reggiecleveland

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I saw him at Vegas Adidas tournament in 2002. He was watching a team he sponsored. He sat in the top corner of the gym with his back turned to the game talking on his cell phone. He had an entourage of about six guys that said "No autographs!" if anybody even attempted to sit on that side of the bleachers. About two minutes left he looked up and his team was losing and he went down to the bench and threw his cell phone to one of the entourage and began coaching. He was really fat.
 

NomarsFool

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I think one of the challenges he had was that (at least in some seasons) there was nobody on the team that was willing to take a shot, except for him. So, I think in a lot of situations he was almost forced to take an ill-advised shot because there was nobody else willing to try and put it up.