Are you worried about the Red Sox?

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

The home run drought is concerning. Home runs were plentiful and crucial in last year’s post season and neutralized good pitching and even good bullpens. You don’t beat these highly specialized starter bullpen combinations with station to station any more that often. We saw this in the all star game even.

Sox have been top five all year or better but suddenly are looking at dropping out of the top 10. The hope is this is a small sample issue. But it also could be that the first 100 games were a bit of a distortion and this is a regression to the mean. JD has helped but the fact that pretty much everyone was exceeding last year has me concerned that last year’s lower-power team is really more who we are (plus JD) and that’s what we’re seeing some of now.

 

[BaseballJones]

Kelly has looked better lately. Its been a month since his last really shitty game. I would guess that he and (hopefully two-footed) Brasier will get more of Barnes's leverage over the next little bit.

This is the nature of a long baseball season. Consider this:

From June 1 through July 24, Kelly's line was: 15.1 ip, 9.98 era, 2.09 whip, 7.6 k/9
From May 10 through July 20, Barnes' line was: 28.1 ip, 1.59 era, 1.09 whip, 14.3 k/9

Then

From July 28 through August 28, Kelly's line is: 14.2 ip, 1.23 era, 1.29 whip, 8.6 k/9
From July 21 through August 28, Barnes' line is: 13.1 ip, 7.43 era, 1.65 whip, 16.2 k/9

So basically, the two guys have flipped. When Kelly was bad, Barnes was good. When Barnes has been bad, Kelly has been good. Neither one is as bad as their bad stretch looks. Neither one is as good as their good stretch looks. On the whole, they're both pretty capable relievers and it's just a matter of which guy you're gonna get at any given time. No doubt cause for a lot of angst around here for sure.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

As the question came up a few posts back, the point of this thread was "are you worried about the division title and Best Record in baseball?".

Playoffs are a crapshoot and a subject for another thread.

I did like lapa's analysis of playoff odds, though.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Leading off bases empty
Other situations with 7,8,9 hitter in front of him and thus likely to be bases empty
Hence no need to groove plate -pitchers can nibble thus chasing pitches more a problem

Bat him 3/4 means more plate appearances with base runners hence more important for pitcher to throw strikes thus more likely for bets to see pitches in the zone

Isn't it self explanatory ?

Sure, but how has he managed to hit. 330 thus far in the leadoff spot without these extra manipulations? If he were consistently struggling hitting leadoff, because he wasn't getting pitches to hit, a change would make sense. But he's only been slumping for two weeks. And even then, the slump seems to mostly be a power outage. He's gotten on base nine times in his last five games (.409 OBP). The slump is temporary. Shuffling up the lineup, especially given his expressed preference to hit leadoff, seems unnecessary to me.

 

[joe dokes]

I'm now worried. This team has looked like garbage and they had no business winning last night. Without Sale the rotation is unimpressive, the pen is terrible, and the bats have collectively quieted down. And they seem to be playing tight after this recent string of losing 7 out of 10 or whatever.

It also makes me wonder if Sale is really hurt. Maybe two weeks ago they thought the lead was big enough, but it certainly isn't now and he is just starting to throw. That's a bigger concern than the recent shitty play.

I thought they looked fine until the 8th.
And I think a tight team folds the tent after the bed-shitting top of the 8th last night.

But yes, much depends on Sale.

 

[lapa]

Sure, but how has he managed to hit. 330 thus far in the leadoff spot without these extra manipulations? If he were consistently struggling hitting leadoff, because he wasn't getting pitches to hit, a change would make sense. But he's only been slumping for two weeks. And even then, the slump seems to mostly be a power outage. He's gotten on base nine times in his last five games (.409 OBP). The slump is temporary. Shuffling up the lineup, especially given his expressed preference to hit leadoff, seems unnecessary to me.

If his 330 is more singles that could still jive with a general lack of pitches in the middle of the zone though. He certainly seems to be fishing around at the edges and outside of the plate

It would be interesting to see if there's enough data to relate his SLG or ISO to hitting position and /or situational with different base counts

 

[Wake49]

I thought they looked fine until the 8th.
And I think a tight team folds the tent after the bed-shitting top of the 8th last night.

But yes, much depends on Sale.

That’s a great point. These guys are playing loose and confident. The 2011 team would have gone quietly in the 8th and 9th, I suspect. This team is a lot more like 2013.

 

[BaseballJones]

The last 10 games represent the worst 10-game stretch of the season for the Red Sox (actually tied with a similar stretch from Apr 21 through May 1). 4-6.

The Yankees have had several 4-6 10-game stretches. So has Houston. Heck, Houston just recently had a 2-8 10-game stretch.

It happens. And when these things happen, teams usually look like crap.

 

[dcmissle]

Except the bullpen problems are at least 3 weeks old; things began to break bad during the Toronto series if not before.

The discussion here and in the bullpen thread Is valuable to me because it explains how problems feed each other. No Sale significantly weakens an already thin rotation which puts immense pressure on a balky pen. Which in turn places pressure on the offense. In a sport in which it is better to be relaxed than not.

Somebody joked last night in the game thread whether a team has ever gone 2-17 after going 17-2. Someone immediately responded that the Dodgers went 1-16 after going 16-1.

Baseball’s unremitting schedule is a curse as well as a blessing. There are no 2 or 3 days, much less a week, to clear your head, relax and figure things out.

PECOTA tells us this morning the chances of winning the division are 94%. I’ll never be able to prove it, but I’m not buying for a second that if you play the remaining 30 or so games 100 times, the Yankees win the AL East only 6 times. Because of this dynamic and because all losses are not created equal — it should not matter whether you surrender 5 runs in the 1st or the 8th, but my guess is it does. Blown saves > losses are demoralizing and amp the pressure on the team.

 

[Al Zarilla]

If his 330 is more singles that could still jive with a general lack of pitches in the middle of the zone though. He certainly seems to be fishing around at the edges and outside of the plate

It would be interesting to see if there's enough data to relate his SLG or ISO to hitting position and /or situational with different base counts

If this year's Red Sox team had a Dom DiMaggio or a Johnny Damon or a Jacoby Ellsbury to bat leadoff, which of course they don't, they’d have something to think about. Who would you bat leadoff instead of Mookie?

 

[Plympton91]

4 elevated to 6, tickling 7.

Pen.

They just need to be adept at riding the hot hands. Kelly seems fixed, Barnes is broken Flip them. That will change in 3 weeks, flip them back.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Red Sox have 30 games left. Yankees have 31 games left.

Sox 90-42
Yanks 83-48 6.5 GB, 6 in loss column

if we keep being flat and go 15-15, we go 105-57. the Yanks would have to go 22-9 to tie us.

so really, just don't have an extended below .500 streak and the Yanks would have to have a torrid stretch (which they are capable of doing). Get closer to 108-110 and it's more impossible for them.

Sox now have 29 games left and going 14-15 would get them to 105 wins. MFY would have to go 21-9 (.700) to beat us.

That's not out of the question. MFYs have 16 games left against OAK, SEA (OAK and SEA are on the west coast), BOS, and TB (as noted in another thread, TB has been playing pretty well lately). Sweeping the 14 games against CWS, DET, MIN, TOR, and BAL and going .500 against the rest of the schedule would get them to 22 games. Not impossible.

However, the Red Sox still have 14 games against FLO, CWS, TOR, NYM, and BAL. If they can win 9 of these 14 (.643) and 6 out of the 15 games against the tough part of their schedule (ATL, HOU, CLE, and NYY), that would put them at 106 wins.

As long as NYY can make up 6 games against BOS in 6 days it's going to be tough to count them out but the 14 games BOS has against the flotsam and jetsam of the league really helps the numbers.

 

[Kevin Youkulele]

If this year's Red Sox team had a Dom DiMaggio or a Johnny Damon or a Jacoby Ellsbury to bat leadoff, which of course they don't, they’d have something to think about. Who would you bat leadoff instead of Mookie?

Benintendi (293/374/486, 20 SB) looks like a reasonable leadoff hitter. Good discipline, speed, decent average, some pop but less than Mookie and JDM.

Honestly as long as Betts and JDM are near the top of the order I don't think it matters that much beyond avoiding a run of hitters of the same handedness, but purely based on the numbers in the hypothetical world where they don't care where they hit, I'd go Benny/Betts/JDM/Pearce*/X for the top 5.
*: SSS warning, but the team seems to have a lot of confidence in him.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Sox now have 29 games left and going 14-15 would get them to 105 wins. MFY would have to go 21-9 (.700) to beat us.

That's not out of the question. MFYs have 16 games left against OAK, SEA (OAK and SEA are on the west coast), BOS, and TB (as noted in another thread, TB has been playing pretty well lately). Sweeping the 14 games against CWS, DET, MIN, TOR, and BAL and going .500 against the rest of the schedule would get them to 22 games. Not impossible.

However, the Red Sox still have 14 games against FLO, CWS, TOR, NYM, and BAL. If they can win 9 of these 14 (.643) and 6 out of the 15 games against the tough part of their schedule (ATL, HOU, CLE, and NYY), that would put them at 106 wins.

As long as NYY can make up 6 games against BOS in 6 days it's going to be tough to count them out but the 14 games BOS has against the flotsam and jetsam of the league really helps the numbers.

Of course if the Sox win 3 of the 6 against the Yanks, those ratios for the other games change significantly

 

[Al Zarilla]

Bwha?

I've seen that Alex doesn't mind taking credit for some things, like Mookie hitting so great the first half because he told Mookie the way they we’re pitching to him was to throw strikes early in the count because he always took a pitch or two (Alex learned that as bench coach in Houston). You can tell any player to swing early in the count, but that doesn’t mean he is going to hit them like Mookie.

Then, the Beeks experience: the game where he had nothing, Cora basically said they were happy with how he threw. What? Then they traded him.

Another one was a game that was crying for Mitch Moreland, who had the night off, to pinch hit for Vaz or another weaker RHH. Sox ended up losing the game. Cora was asked after why no Moreland to ph, and he said there’s never a good time to “burn” a pinch hitter. So Mitch rotted on the bench.

One time he did admit a mistake was when he didn’t pull JD for defense in the ninth inning and said he just forgot.

He seems to think his decisions are bullet proof. I guess he is very good for the Red Sox though as people from management to players have given him high grades and the team of course has played great (until just lately).

 

[Kevin Youkulele]

I've seen that Alex doesn't mind taking credit for some things, like Mookie hitting so great the first half because he told Mookie the way they we’re pitching to him was to throw strikes early in the count because he always took a pitch or two (Alex learned that as bench coach in Houston). You can tell any player to swing early in the count, but that doesn’t mean he is going to hit them like Mookie.

Then, the Beeks experience: the game where he had nothing, Cora basically said they were happy with how he threw. What? Then they traded him.

Another one was a game that was crying for Mitch Moreland, who had the night off, to pinch hit for Vaz or another weaker RHH. Sox ended up losing the game. Cora was asked after why no Moreland to ph, and he said there’s never a good time to “burn” a pinch hitter. So Mitch rotted on the bench.

One time he did admit a mistake was when he didn’t pull JD for defense in the ninth inning and said he just forgot.

He seems to think his decisions are bullet proof. I guess he is very good for the Red Sox though as people from management to players have given him high grades and the team of course has played great (until just lately).

The bolded is essentially puffery or posturing. He isn't going to talk down someone that they are about to/trying to trade.

As you note, he admitted a mistake regarding pulling JD, which is not actually that common among managers as I understand it.

Regarding the Moreland no-PH episode, nobody's perfect, and can't his comment be read as acknowledging that foresight about using a PH is difficult? Things look clearer in hindsight.

Regarding Mookie, I'm actually surprised that he said this if he really believes it as it is a signal to other teams to change their approach to Mookie if they hadn't already. I tend to think of Belichick as close to the ideal of how to handle questions relating to strategy, and Belichick would not have said anything like this. If he doesn't actually believe it's entirely responsible and Mookie made some other adjustment that is contributing to his production at least in part, then I'm less concerned with this as it may constitute a form of misdirection to prevent other teams from knowing what adjustment by Mookie necessitates a counter-adjustment.

In all, I am not convinced by your evidence that Cora is more full of himself than other managers.

 

[Wallball Tingle]

Did the 11-run inning soothe at all?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Did the 11-run inning soothe at all?

It would have soothed more if Price hadn't gotten dinged. Hopefully the former is more indicative of future results than the latter.

But every Sox win/Yanks lose outcome is precious at this point.

 

[Wallball Tingle]

It would have soothed more if Price hadn't gotten dinged. Hopefully the former is more indicative of future results than the latter.

But every Sox win/Yanks lose outcome is precious at this point.

Yeah. Feels like poor injury luck on the rotation this year (or is it just average?).

But hey we're here! 1 win from matching the win total of the last two AL East champion Sox teams. At the end of August.

 

[Plympton91]

The Yankee rotation is just not good enough to make up this much ground, and without Sanchez and Judge c.2017, the lineup isn’t as fearsome as I feared.

 

[Al Zarilla]

The Yankee rotation is just not good enough to make up this much ground, and without Sanchez and Judge c.2017, the lineup isn’t as fearsome as I feared.

Gary Sanchez started rehab with Scranton this week and has a couple of home runs in 2 games, I think. Judge is still not swinging a bat.

 

[bosockboy]

Gary Sanchez started rehab with Scranton this week and has a couple of home runs in 2 games, I think. Judge is still not swinging a bat.

I think if we see Judge again this season he will be severely compromised.

 

[tims4wins]

I think we are going to look back at this year and realize that with how few innings the Sox have received from their top 5 starters, and how meh the bullpen has been, and wonder how they won so many damn games.

 

[The Red Industry]

I think we are going to look back at this year and realize that with how few innings the Sox have received from their top 5 starters, and how meh the bullpen has been, and wonder how they won so many damn games.

According to Fangraphs the Red Sox relievers have the 6th best xFIP in baseball, thats hardly "Meh".

 

[tims4wins]

According to Fangraphs the Red Sox relievers have the 6th best xFIP in baseball, thats hardly "Meh".

I know, it’s hard to understand though. Kimbrel has been sub par. Barnes has been ok. Kelly has had ups and downs. Ditto Hembree, Velazquez, Brasier, etc. It’s not a lights out group. Where does their bullpen WHIP rank?

 

[AB in DC]

The Chicago series will be a good test -- the White Sox just won two out of three in the Bronx (and took two of three in Fenway earlier this year) so let's see how they handle it.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I know, it’s hard to understand though. Kimbrel has been sub par. Barnes has been ok. Kelly has had ups and downs. Ditto Hembree, Velazquez, Brasier, etc. It’s not a lights out group. Where does their bullpen WHIP rank?

10th in MLB in bullpen WHIP at 1.26. 5th in LOB%. They might not be the best at keeping runners off the bases, but they do a fairly good job of stranding them there.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

10th in WHIP, with a relatively low BABIP.

18th in BB/9.

 

[The Red Industry]

I know, it’s hard to understand though. Kimbrel has been sub par. Barnes has been ok. Kelly has had ups and downs. Ditto Hembree, Velazquez, Brasier, etc. It’s not a lights out group. Where does their bullpen WHIP rank?

It is weird. If I look at the numbers I'm totally cool to roll with them. The reality seems so much different. I don't get it either.

 

[bosockboy]

They are the definition of "bend but don't break."

 

[Sam Ray Not]

The Chicago series will be a good test -- the White Sox just won two out of three in the Bronx (and took two of three in Fenway earlier this year) so let's see how they handle it.

You can pretty much guarantee a few big hits by Moncada and a lights-out start tomorrow by Kopech, just to get us all good and riled up. But hopefully we figure out a way to take at least three of four.

On the 'pen: concerning, but it should look a bit better come playoff time when bolstered by some combo of EdRo, Evo, and Johnson. (Assuming health all around, I'd guess EdRo becomes the 4th starter and the other two move to the pen?)

 

[AB in DC]

10th in MLB in bullpen WHIP at 1.26. 5th in LOB%. They might not be the best at keeping runners off the bases, but they do a fairly good job of stranding them there.

Since the All-Star break, though, the bullpen is 13th in xFIP, 13th in FIP, 8th in LOB%.

 

[tims4wins]

They are the definition of "bend but don't break."

Worked well in the Super Bowl

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Back down to about a 1.5 after the past two days.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

This team cannot score until the late innings. They are in deep trouble if they keep waiting to score 9+ runs after the sixth inning.

 

[bosockboy]

Yanks only viable path is minimum 5 of 6 head to head with us. Even if they did that they’d still have to make up the other 5.5 in 21-22 games.

 

[LesterFan]

98% to win the division per FiveThirtyEight. 96% per Fangraphs.

 

[bankshot1]

I'm off 4 to 2 not because DD got us the BP help we need, but it seems the MFYs are shitting the bed

 

[Plympton91]

This team cannot score until the late innings. They are in deep trouble if they keep waiting to score 9+ runs after the sixth inning.

Well played.

Has everyone changed their diaper now?

 

[djbayko]

98% to win the division per FiveThirtyEight. 96% per Fangraphs.

95.8% per Baseball Prospectus, just to round things out.

 

[The Raccoon]

It's funny to have this thread directly above the "This is the best Red Sox team... ever." thread.
Probably not even typical for Red Sox fans but for sports fans in general. No matter how good you're team is going, there is always the fear that they will fail and it will hurt even more.

And since I'm about to click 'post reply', this thread will distance itself from the "best ... ever" thread, because being worried is ultimatly the right feeling until they either have won it all or we have been right all along.

 

[Devizier]

I know, it’s hard to understand though. Kimbrel has been sub par. Barnes has been ok. Kelly has had ups and downs. Ditto Hembree, Velazquez, Brasier, etc. It’s not a lights out group. Where does their bullpen WHIP rank?

Pretty much the same? They haven't had unusual hit luck if that's what you're wondering.

The reason why the bullpen seems worse is

1) Bullpens always do; you're only going to note the games they've blown
2) The Yankees and Astros have exceptional bullpens and the next 10 bullpens are fairly indistinguishable (in terms of performance)

 

[tims4wins]

Yeah for all my concern about the pen I think the MFY pen has blown more games over the last month

 

[TheoShmeo]

It’s hard to be worried with an 8.5 game lead and the Yankees peeing down their legs to the extent they did night. But the report on NESN’s sport desk show that Price is missing his next start does give me some pause.

A rotation — for now — of Porcello, ERod (on a pitch count and who knows if he can stay in there), Evoldi, Johnson and Velazquez is no way to go through life. Expanded rosters should help.

But still, get well fast Sale and Price, both for the pennant race and October worry factor.

 

[pgeyer13]

I’ll be worried until the magic number is zero.

But I remain confident.

Sly smile

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

But the report on NESN’s sport desk show that Price is missing his next start does give me some pause.

Given the nature of the shot he took, it seems just smart to give him a few extra days to let it heal up. I mean, I guess there's always the chance it's going to be a lingering problem, but I don't think the fact that he's missing a start gives us any particular reason to think so.

 

[dcmissle]

I'm off 4 to 2 not because DD got us the BP help we need, but it seems the MFYs are shitting the bed

Last night was big. We’ve been on the other side of these flip-the-script cock punches. They are hard to overcome.

 

[tims4wins]

Voted 3, at a 2 right now mainly because of the Yankees blowing a couple games.

 

[TheoShmeo]

Given the nature of the shot he took, it seems just smart to give him a few extra days to let it heal up. I mean, I guess there's always the chance it's going to be a lingering problem, but I don't think the fact that he's missing a start gives us any particular reason to think so.

I would ordinarily agree and do lean that way. But there’s been a pattern of short stints turning into longer than advertised stints. So yeah, if we’re talking about a few extra days or even a full turn through the rotation, cool. But no one should be shocked if it’s longer.

 

[ToeKneeArmAss]

98% to win the division per FiveThirtyEight. 96% per Fangraphs.

So you're saying there's a chance?