Are you worried about the Red Sox?
- Thread starter Lose Remerswaal
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If the Sox can win 7 of their next 11, which basically means winning their current series against the Braves, along with the upcoming series against the Astros, Blue Jays, and Mets, then the magic number will be well into the single digits by the time they go to NY. They could even go 6-5; either way, if the Sox can pull that off, they make the math for the Yankees be somewhere between very difficult and impossible, barring a 6 game sweep.
I'm still keeping it at a 4, just because I'm scarred from earlier collapses. But could easily go to a 2 or 1 in the next week or two.
I'm still keeping it at a 4, just because I'm scarred from earlier collapses. But could easily go to a 2 or 1 in the next week or two.
Although anything can happen ( I don't like to think of 2011) and the Sox have a difficult stretch with 3 v Astros,3 v Tribe and six with NY, I look at it this way. It took the Yankees 16 games (since aug. 18) to make up two games in the loss column. Given that math with 23 games remaining, it seems unlikely the Yankees can make up the remaining 8 games to win the division title.
If they can win 6 or 7 of their next 11, and we assume the Yankees do the same (@OAK, @SEA, @MIN, TOR), that would put the magic number in the 4-5 range. They could theoretically clinch the division during the series in the Bronx.
When do the Yankees start playing all of those bad teams they’re certainly going to steamroll? Asking for a friend.
I'll just throw out there that the 2011 comps don't add up. Then it was their actual starting pitching staff (Lackey, Lester, Beckett, Wakefield) that completely collapsed. Here it is the temporary absence of our starting rotation that has slowed down their pace. I'd be worried if the injured pitchers weren't all about to return.
At this point, it basically comes down to the MFY's getting three games against Seattle and four games against the Rays, while the Sox get three against the Astros and three against the Indians, plus the six head to head contests of course. The rest pretty much washes itself out IMO.
It looks now that the best hope for NY is Judge coming back effective. I don't know when Chapman is expected, but he could help, too.
That was August. Sox had a two week stretch of @Phi, vs TB, vs. Cle, @ TB where the Sox went 5-7. During that stretch the Yanks had vs. Mets (makeup), vs. TB, vs Tor, @Florida, @Bal and went 9-4.
More than that -- both teams have home series left against Tor and Bal, so they exactly wash out. Otherwise the Sox have two more @Atl (while NY is @ Oak) and three vs. Mets (compared to NY @Minnesota)
Speaking of the Mets -- DeGrom pitched last night, so he'll pitch again either September 8 (four days rest) or September 9 (pushed back due to Thursday off-day). If he pitches the 9th, then he probably pitches the opening game of the Sox-Mets series, but if he goes on the 8th, the Sox will most likely get to miss him altogether.
For those inclined to project the remaining schedule, we're probably at the point now where we can get granular with likely opposing starters as opposed to just opposing teams. For example, vs. HOU we'll likely get one rookie starter (Josh James), vs. NYM we'll likely miss Syndegaard but get DeGrom, etc.
(D'oh: and on cue, AB in DC's post above!)
(D'oh: and on cue, AB in DC's post above!)
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Their “weak” stretch included the CWS/DET series, both of which they lost and tied, respectively. So 12-8 over this part of the schedule they were to assert their dominance. I seriously don’t understand how anyone can be worried about the division at this point, barring nonsensical superstitions about 40 year old clubs.
Edit: split w/ DET
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Sox will beat DeGrom 1 to 0. Like all his starts, it will be the bullpen that gives up the run.
Cole, Keuchel, deGrom, Wheeler, Severino, Tanaka over the next 12 games.
Just a tad worried this is a 6-6 stretch coming up.
Just a tad worried this is a 6-6 stretch coming up.
Isn't it also the case that the Red Sox have been waiting until the bullpens come in to go to town?
A 6-6 stretch is not a problem. The Yankees need us to be worse than that.
I mean, seriously -- if we play .500 the rest of the way (or just under, since we have an odd number of games -- 11-12) the Yankees need to go 20-4 to catch us.
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I mean, the Sox are now at 96 wins. If they finish 11-11, that would still beat the franchise record for wins by two games. It would beat the franchise record for expansion era (162 game season) wins by eight. That's insane.
The level of resignation about the AL East on WFAN yesterday afternoon was extraordinary and delicious. I always thought Yankees fans and media cheerleaders would show that classic Yankees confidence and arrogance when put in their current position. Not that they’re wrong or the math doesn’t back them up. But confident they are not.
I assume that one win and recency bias will lead to slightly more confidence today.
Still, hearing how worried, and really resigned, MFYFs are in early September was a schadenfreude Festivus.
[Late edit to fix a few errors]
And PS: I just now focused on the poll answers. Nine is the correct answer. To ANY poll.
I assume that one win and recency bias will lead to slightly more confidence today.
Still, hearing how worried, and really resigned, MFYFs are in early September was a schadenfreude Festivus.
[Late edit to fix a few errors]
And PS: I just now focused on the poll answers. Nine is the correct answer. To ANY poll.
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I think an interesting weekend starts Friday 21 September when, after visiting the Yankees, the Red Sox fly to Cleveland while the Orioles slither into the Toilet to hand the Yankees three guaranteed wins. Yankees could gain 2 games that weekend (and 1 game in the BOS-NYY series before). That sets up the Showalters to play their hearts out and win one against Boston. If the Yankees take out Tampa in a sweep they could make up another game. That's 4 games made good (without considering the Houston series). The final 3 games could be fun...for Boston, as they send NY to Oakland.
Obviously this is all speculation but the Rays have been playing at least as well as the Yankees for a while now and while a sweep is of course possible I think it is clearly unlikely.
Anyone worried about the Sox losing the east is being pretty irrational at this point.
More like completely irrational. The Rays have just as much chance as sweeping them. We just saw them do it to us.
On the morning of September 5th in 2011, the Sox had slipped to 1.5 games behind the Yankees. But they did still have an 8 game lead over Tampa in the wild card standings.
In 1978, the Sox were up 5 games, but had just lost to the Orioles while in the middle of a key 1-5 slump in the lead up to the infamous Massacre series.
In 1978, the Sox were up 5 games, but had just lost to the Orioles while in the middle of a key 1-5 slump in the lead up to the infamous Massacre series.
Put differently (and ignoring rounding error), if the Sox gagged out a .500 record the rest of the way (in other words, their worst 22 game stretch of the season), the MFY would need to go 20-3 to catch us. If the Sox managed to step on their dick to the tune of winning 33% of their remaining games, the MFY still wouldn't catch them at their current win % of .626.
So yeah, if the Sox completely shit down their proverbial leg, they could lose the division. And that would suck. But we have seen no evidence to support that as a likely outcome of this season.
So yeah, if the Sox completely shit down their proverbial leg, they could lose the division. And that would suck. But we have seen no evidence to support that as a likely outcome of this season.
The 2011 Rays finished on an 17-8 run, and the 1978 Yankees finished on a 29-9 run. That's the kind of performance today's Yankees would need, on top of a Red Sox collapse.
The Yankees, most likely, will need to win basically all six remaining games against the Red Sox. Going 5-1 only picks up 4 games in the standings, and they're currently 8.5 games up in the standings. So the Yanks would need to make up 4.5 games with just 17 left (16 for Bos). That's a lot of ground to make up in a short span of time. Going 6-0 vs. Boston would make it pretty doable though. Going 4-2 vs. Boston is almost useless for NY.
More difficult for them is that 3 of those 6 games are the final 3. They will have a lot of magic to do to even make those last 3 mean anything.
It's very much in the Sox' interest to have the division clinched before the final 3 games; so in my mind they are 5 1/2 ahead with 19 to go (20 to go for NYY). So if the Sox were a mediocre 9-10 the Yanks would need to be 15-5 to overcome that. That's still .750 ball.
10-9 and they would have to go 16-4, .800 ball.
(edit). Make that 5 to go with 18/20, my guess is they ain't comin' back from 7-1 down today. So 9-9 or 10-8 the rest of the way.
10-9 and they would have to go 16-4, .800 ball.
(edit). Make that 5 to go with 18/20, my guess is they ain't comin' back from 7-1 down today. So 9-9 or 10-8 the rest of the way.
The Indians magic number is 10. That series in Cleveland on Sept 21 may be meaningless to them. Tito could rest players or set up the rotation to avoid showing a potential playoff opponent his best starters.
It's entirely possible the series will be meaningless for the Red Sox too. The magic number is 15 and they've got 12 games (not including today) to play before they get to Cleveland. Unless they have a significantly bad home stand and get swept in the Bronx, they should at least be at a point where the series in Cleveland won't be life and death for either team.
Remember when Wade Boggs was so good at hitting with two strikes that when he got to 0-2 we used to say he had the pitcher right where he wanted him? I'm starting to feel that way about 7th-inning deficits. It's like they get a bunch of runs behind just to get psyched up.
The numbers don't really bear it out but their 2nd best inning this year is the 7th. The 8th is/was their worst. That may have changed today.
Most of their damage comes between the 5th-7th innings and on the pitchers 3rd time thru the lineup. They are basically hitting like Aaron Judge as a team in the 5th. Insane.
They are better from 7th-9th than 1st-3rd and that gap grew today, but it's not that huge of a gap. I don't know how that compares relative to the rest of the league.
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Or that this is when starting pitchers are the most vulnerable, and when all but the most elite starters experience a significant decline in their performance.
Yeah. That's why on its own, the 9th inning numbers don't look all that impressive but when you consider a large chunk of that performance is against the most elite relievers, it actually is.
Here are the league numbers by inning but it includes pitchers and I'm not sure how to remove them or find AL specific splits. The Sox performance in the 7th inning is well beyond the league average. And while the league as a whole hits better in innings 1-3 than they do 7-9, the reverse is true for the Sox.
This made me curious so I looked up SP/Reliever splits.
League Wide
.250/.316/.417 vs SP
.246/.322/.401 vs MR
Redsox
.273/.336/.472 vs SP
.262/.340/.432 vs MR
Not what I expected to see but they do follow the league wide trend of lower avg/higher obp/lower slugging vs MR. The team is also hitting worse than league average in the 4th and 8th innings. The 4th inning is interesting, given how much better they've hit in the 5th, 6th and 7th compared to the rest of the league. Their 8th inning performance today may be closer to league average after today tho.
This made me curious so I looked up SP/Reliever splits.
League Wide
.250/.316/.417 vs SP
.246/.322/.401 vs MR
Redsox
.273/.336/.472 vs SP
.262/.340/.432 vs MR
Not what I expected to see but they do follow the league wide trend of lower avg/higher obp/lower slugging vs MR. The team is also hitting worse than league average in the 4th and 8th innings. The 4th inning is interesting, given how much better they've hit in the 5th, 6th and 7th compared to the rest of the league. Their 8th inning performance today may be closer to league average after today tho.
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Didn't Gwynn and Boggs do a commercial together? I remember them being compared a lot despite not really being that similar, outside of hitting for average and never striking out. Ironic they'd be 1 and 2 on the list.
You mean 9 ahead as of right now. Either 8.5 or 9.5 by the end of tonight. Red Sox have 21 games left and Yankees 23.
I think he means even if the Yankees sweep the next series, the lead is 6 in 18 games.
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