Are you worried about the Red Sox?
- Thread starter Lose Remerswaal
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"A gift." That's what my friends said when they took me to see Pink Flamingos on my birthday 40 or so years ago. "Just wait til the last scene," they said.
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since TB took us to the cleaners, and the Yanks gained 3.5 games in that single weekend, we have gone 7-2, while the Yankees have gone 4-6 - regaining those 3.5 games back.
can we relax now? at least until October 5?
can we relax now? at least until October 5?
Sorry...being in the car in the middle of the PM is pretty unusual. BUT this is worth watching....
http://web.yesnetwork.com/media/video.jsp?topic_id=72396492
To put it another way - the Yankees have played 30 games since the sweep in Fenway and have gone 19-11 (.633). In any other year, we might be reading stories about how that series was a wakeup call for them and how they responded (complete with bonus stories touting their resilience after losing Sanchez, Judge, etc. to the DL), but all of that is ignored because the Red Sox have played .643 ball since the sweep (18-10).
I never relax until the MFY are dead and a stake has been driven through their collective little hearts.since TB took us to the cleaners, and the Yanks gained 3.5 games in that single weekend, we have gone 7-2, while the Yankees have gone 4-6 - regaining those 3.5 games back.
can we relax now? at least until October 5?
On the morning of 9/6/11, the Sox were 84-56 and 2.5 games back in the division race. Records the rest of the way:
Sox: 6-16
NYY: 11-12 (2-1 against Boston)
Tampa: 14-8 (6-1 against Boston)
If Boston were to go 5-16 in their remaining 21 games, New York would have to go 15-7 to force a one game playoff. Possible, but it really would be quite remarkable.
In 1978, the Sox were 86-52 and clinging to a 4 game lead over the Yankees. Records the rest of the way, including the playoff game:
Boston: 13-12
NYY: 18-7 (7-1 against Boston)
If the Sox were to go 10-11 (slightly worse than 1978), then New York would have to go 20-2.
So, as this is a regular season poll, I'm changing my 4 to a 2.
On a different note, records the rest of the way in happier seasons:
2013:
Sox: 12-8 (5-1 against NYY)
NYY: 10-12
2007:
Sox: 12-10 (1-2 against New York)
NYY: 14-6
2004:
Sox: 17-10 (3-3 against New York)
NYY: 17-9
Sox: 6-16
NYY: 11-12 (2-1 against Boston)
Tampa: 14-8 (6-1 against Boston)
If Boston were to go 5-16 in their remaining 21 games, New York would have to go 15-7 to force a one game playoff. Possible, but it really would be quite remarkable.
In 1978, the Sox were 86-52 and clinging to a 4 game lead over the Yankees. Records the rest of the way, including the playoff game:
Boston: 13-12
NYY: 18-7 (7-1 against Boston)
If the Sox were to go 10-11 (slightly worse than 1978), then New York would have to go 20-2.
So, as this is a regular season poll, I'm changing my 4 to a 2.
On a different note, records the rest of the way in happier seasons:
2013:
Sox: 12-8 (5-1 against NYY)
NYY: 10-12
2007:
Sox: 12-10 (1-2 against New York)
NYY: 14-6
2004:
Sox: 17-10 (3-3 against New York)
NYY: 17-9
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In terms of the regular season, I'm as close to a 1 as possible (after initially voting 3). Yes, months like September 2011 happen, but as many have already noted, the Sox would have to go into the tank in a historic way to blow this one.
That said, I'm still a bit worried about the pitching for the postseason. Really need to see Price and Sale come back strong. And obviously it's a crapshoot even if they do. But, that's a discussion for next month (or at least until after they have the division locked down).
That said, I'm still a bit worried about the pitching for the postseason. Really need to see Price and Sale come back strong. And obviously it's a crapshoot even if they do. But, that's a discussion for next month (or at least until after they have the division locked down).
We must express our collective angst so that the team can make a mockery of it. It's all part of the process, grasshopper.
Well, even with the Yankees little run/the Sox cooling down against TB, 70%+ of us voted that we were not really concerned at all - certainly a change from "back in the day", when it would have been that many of us near panicking....
Severino just got crushed again last night. The Yankees are not coming anywhere close to this division. Their rotation is not up to the task, not by a long shot.
Well, it's more about the math than their players at this point. 9.5 up with 22 to play is a tall task for any team to make up.
The Yankees could win out and the Sox could play about 100 points below their current winning percentage and still win division.
Some angst when it was down to 6 Post Tampa series was warranted. As the lead has rebounded. After yesterday it had to be a 1 at this point. I was a 4 after Tampa.
My bigger concern is post season pitching.
Seven three-game series remaining, with only two away from Fenway:
Home: HOU, TOR, NYM, BAL, NYY
Away: NYY, CLE
For anyone worried about the physical toll plane travel takes on athletes, that's about as good as gets for a 21-game stretch. Knock on wood furiously, but between that, the liberal rest and/or injury rest days Cora has been giving guys, and the high chance of an early clinch of the #1 seed, the team should be entering the playoffs tanned, rested, and ready.
The rest, of course, is a giant crapshoot.
Home: HOU, TOR, NYM, BAL, NYY
Away: NYY, CLE
For anyone worried about the physical toll plane travel takes on athletes, that's about as good as gets for a 21-game stretch. Knock on wood furiously, but between that, the liberal rest and/or injury rest days Cora has been giving guys, and the high chance of an early clinch of the #1 seed, the team should be entering the playoffs tanned, rested, and ready.
The rest, of course, is a giant crapshoot.
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That would do it. NY best win total is now 109. Do it? Put the final nail in the coffin, how my ass taste, you’re our bitch for the third straight year.
With respect that's not quite true
If I flip a coin 60 times and hit 40 heads I can tell you with utter certainty that the chance of throwing a head this time is 50%
Results over any given period of time and especially in short sample periods do not necessarily reflect the 'true' likelihood of any event
Utter certainty? The odds that flipping a fair coin 60 times and getting 40 or more heads is less than 1% (~0.674% to be a bit more precise).
Let's say you thought there was a 1% chance that someone slipped you a weighted coin that came up heads 2/3 of the time. After flipping 40 heads out of 60 you'd have to conclude that there's a 30% chance the coin is biased and so there'd be a 55% chance the next flip comes up heads.
Even if I thought beforehand that there was a 1,000,000:1 chance that the coin was biased, after flipping 40 heads out of 60 I'd have to recalibrate my estimate and say there was now up to a 33,440:1 chance that the coin is biased and so the next flip being heads would be 50.0005%
/nerdy lecture
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This would be to speak to the team’s “true quality” of which how they actually play is only data.
@Spelunker referred, though, to how they are playing as recorded in the data.
I take your meaning, but they don’t give out trophies to the existentially superior team.
Bullpen rankings for the second half (AL)
fWAR 11th of 15
FIP 8th
xFIP 9th
WHIP 13th
SIERA 8th
BABIP 10th
K% 6th
SwSt% 3rd
fWAR 11th of 15
FIP 8th
xFIP 9th
WHIP 13th
SIERA 8th
BABIP 10th
K% 6th
SwSt% 3rd
^ can you go into BABIP more? is that 10th luckiest or unluckiest?
ultimately most of the time it's the walks.... still elite at getting swings and misses and K's
ultimately most of the time it's the walks.... still elite at getting swings and misses and K's
the pen will be the death of this team..last night's game was a foreshadowing of what will happen in the play-offs, So pissed they left a great team out to dry.
8 game lead with 19 left. But I’d feel a lot less worried if they could get a couple of more games from these playoff teams, HOU, CLE and MFY.
61-17 against under 500 teams and 12-15 against AL playoff teams. I'm not worried about the division at this point but Sales injury, the bullpen and JDM's power slump (2 HR in 98 pA) has me a tad anxious about the post season
Just have to hope these issues resolve in time for the post season and no new ones crop up. Get it out of your system (12-11 stretch) . Despite my anxiety its been a fun season . The post season is always a crap shoot so not worrying about it would be worrisome.
Just have to hope these issues resolve in time for the post season and no new ones crop up. Get it out of your system (12-11 stretch) . Despite my anxiety its been a fun season . The post season is always a crap shoot so not worrying about it would be worrisome.
I don’t think Kelly would be left to die, or be the one brought in, in the playoffs. Just hoping that someone can be the hot hand in the playoffs.
Not worried.
Not worried.
How are they 12-15 against AL playoff teams when they're 2-4 against the Astros, 2-2 against Cleveland, 2-4 against the A's, and 8-5 against the MFYs? I'm no math expert, but I had no idea my parents failed when they taught me how to add more than 50 years ago.
No worries about the division any longer, but I have zero confidence that this team can win a 7 game series with the way this pen has been.
They will have to ride Brasier, Kimbrel, and Barnes, and hope that Eovaldi and Wright play up out of the bullpen. And Sale needs to be dominant.
Or have JDM/Mookie get hot and ride them through the playoffs. JDM has still been playing well, but I expect his power numbers to pick back up again soon
Or have JDM/Mookie get hot and ride them through the playoffs. JDM has still been playing well, but I expect his power numbers to pick back up again soon
We can’t beat Houston in a seven-game series. Our pitchers are terrified of them and the bottom of our lineup has too many holes. We would/will beat the Indians, Yanks, and As, but we just don’t match up against the Astros.
1. Our pitchers are terrified of them.
2. Zero percent chance of beating them.
3. Zero percent chance of Oakland, Cleveland, or NY beating us.
Facts.
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