That's a great observation if true. I was impressed by how definitively that official made that call, especially on a play that looked so bizarre and seemed like a very difficult call to make in the heat of the moment on the biggest of stages.
Belated Observations about SB 51 -- In General Edition
- Thread starter TheoShmeo
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I was wrong. Different guy than the Texans game. But Edelman did have a pre-game interaction with him.
Your post about Belichick's brilliance and other coaches not so much reminded me of the end of SB 49, on whether the Pats should call a time out or not. From "Do Your Job" pretty sure it was, most everybody was saying he had to call timeout when Lynch got to the one yard line. He even heard in his head set from one of his coaches "the guys are wondering if we should call a time out." He said back "I got it". On Do Your Job he said he thought of it, but he looked at Seattle and there was some confusion and they were sending guys in and out. He decided if they want to call a time out, let them, but I'm not going to help them out. Thank God he didn't. Seattle could have run about whatever plays they wanted (OK, one pass) since they still had a TO in hand. It would have taken a goal line stand like the 49ers in SB 16.
Right, he simply doesn't let the moment overwhelm him. He is prepared for every situation, and the team executes whatever strategy he deems best. Those two kickoffs were huge, huge plays.
The more I re-watch the game, the more I'm amazed by Brady's throws in OT.
That pass to Hogan had to have perfect timing, velocity, and placement. Any small deviation and it easily could've been a pick-6. The confidence, arm strength, courage and precision to make that throw just amaze me.
The pass over the middle on 2nd and 13 to Edelman...fired into a tight window. And my god, the touch on the sideline route to Amendola.
Considering the circumstances, three of the best passes ever seen.
That pass to Hogan had to have perfect timing, velocity, and placement. Any small deviation and it easily could've been a pick-6. The confidence, arm strength, courage and precision to make that throw just amaze me.
The pass over the middle on 2nd and 13 to Edelman...fired into a tight window. And my god, the touch on the sideline route to Amendola.
Considering the circumstances, three of the best passes ever seen.
The hairiest one, as you say, was the pass to Hogan. Young Falcons CB, Jalen Collins, could have Malcolm Butlered it, but he was playing just enough off Hogan, and didn't come back to the ball as aggressively as Hogan.
The first one, to Amendola, was extremely similar to the pass Ryan threw to Gabriel on 3rd and 33 on the drive before the Pats tied it. Brady made the throw, Ryan didn't.
I could have sworn I heard a QB (either Rodgers or Brady) talking about how a perfect throw will always beat perfect defense.
Said another way - Brady's throw to Hogan was so great and they were on the same page that the DB was helpless.
Yup. And it did not strike me that way in real time. Those throws seemed like just other good plays.
Celebrate what is. While we have it. Line between God and JAG is thin.
Wonder if Brady just throws the ball better when he's a bit tired. SB 49 and 51 make it seem that way (small sample of course). Or, maybe it's more that early game jitters are gone. Tom solidifying one of his nicknames, the comeback kid, more and more.
It was a weird game for Gostkowski. He only had one real, competitive kickoff until less than ten minutes left in the game, which probably is pretty unusual for any Patriots kicker in the last 16 years.
His first kickoff of the game is a squib with two seconds left in the first half. He starts the second half with his first real kickoff -- a good, short conventional kickoff to the five. His next kickoff is the onside. It isn't until just under 10:00 left that he tries his specialty -- the high kick that he drops close to goal line. But he botches it a bit. He kicks an infield fly. Fortunately, the Falcons can't take advantage of the good field position. His next two, though, as mentioned, are perfect. High and dropping in right near the goal line.
His first kickoff of the game is a squib with two seconds left in the first half. He starts the second half with his first real kickoff -- a good, short conventional kickoff to the five. His next kickoff is the onside. It isn't until just under 10:00 left that he tries his specialty -- the high kick that he drops close to goal line. But he botches it a bit. He kicks an infield fly. Fortunately, the Falcons can't take advantage of the good field position. His next two, though, as mentioned, are perfect. High and dropping in right near the goal line.
At the start of the 4th quarter Atlanta punts the ball. Patrick Chung is covering the gunner on the right side of the field and as he runs down the sideline he makes an over the shoulder catch at the Pats' 13 yard line while running out of bounds.
It struck me as something that I don't recall seeing before. Maybe Chung was coached to make that play?
I guess it could save a few yards of field position although in this case it didn't appear to.
It struck me as something that I don't recall seeing before. Maybe Chung was coached to make that play?
I guess it could save a few yards of field position although in this case it didn't appear to.
It was a trick play that Fox didn't pick up on. Rams ran it successfully a couple years ago. Edelman drifted to his left like the ball was going there, drawing all the punt coverage. Chung actually goes to the ball, hopefully to find a wide open field with nobody paying attention to him until it's too late.
It didn't work because a coverage guy stayed with Chung.
Interesting. Thanks for the explanation. I guess with the directional punt carrying to ball all the way to the sideline it wasn't going to work anyway but good to know what was going on in the background on that play.
Hilltopper is a Western Kentucky reference, or does that play have such name, or both?
That's true but Butler's coverage was so tight that I'm not sure that the throw was even possible for Ryan. That defense by Butler is one of the underrated huge moments of the game, in my opinion. And one of the reasons why he cannot be allowed to leave NE for a good long time.
I think the other factor - maybe very important factor - was that Atlanta's D was tired and Brady knew it. So he wasn't afraid to throw into coverage assuming that his guy would likely come up with it. The Hogan throw was the best example. Brady's supreme confidence was already part of that throw, but also, he figured the D was on their heels and at most, happy just to break up the play rather than play aggressive and try to intercept
I wish I could post videos of both plays back to back.
Having gone back and watched both plays again, my take is that Tom perfectly put the ball into the only spot where Danny could catch it and Butler's coverage made it so there was NO place that Gabriel could catch it.
No doubt, Brady's pass was perfect and Ryan did not make the play he had to make. I just don't think anyone could have connected with Gabriel there absent a fluke given how tight Butler was.
And...this is a nice debate to be allowed to have. If Ryan connects there, the Falcons probably go on to win the game.
In terms of observations, this is scraping the bottom of the barrel, but what the heck, it's been about a month and most of the good stuff has been said.
The Patriots got in the end zone 6 times and the Falcons got in 4 times. On each of their TDs, the Falcons were very deep in the end zone or easily could have walked through the back of the end zone. Freeman was all alone. Hooper landed 9 yards deep. Alford could have walked to Cleveland. Coleman basically walked in and slowed up and went out of bounds about five or so yards in the end zone.
The Patriots, in comparison, went about six or maybe seven yards deep on all six of their goal line conversions combined. White's receiving TD and his game winner, and Amendola's two point conversion to tie the game were all just barely stretched across the front of the goal line. On his receiving TD, Amendola fell across the goal line. On White's fourth quarter rushing TD and on his two point conversion, he dives across the goal line and falls a couple of yards into the end zone.
I don't think there's a point to be made here, other than just it's interesting is all. In all senses, the Patriots just barely won that game.
The Patriots got in the end zone 6 times and the Falcons got in 4 times. On each of their TDs, the Falcons were very deep in the end zone or easily could have walked through the back of the end zone. Freeman was all alone. Hooper landed 9 yards deep. Alford could have walked to Cleveland. Coleman basically walked in and slowed up and went out of bounds about five or so yards in the end zone.
The Patriots, in comparison, went about six or maybe seven yards deep on all six of their goal line conversions combined. White's receiving TD and his game winner, and Amendola's two point conversion to tie the game were all just barely stretched across the front of the goal line. On his receiving TD, Amendola fell across the goal line. On White's fourth quarter rushing TD and on his two point conversion, he dives across the goal line and falls a couple of yards into the end zone.
I don't think there's a point to be made here, other than just it's interesting is all. In all senses, the Patriots just barely won that game.
I could also post this in the JG dilemma thread, but the Brady-Hogan play in OT scared the crap out of me real-time. I thought it was a pick-6. BUT Brady still had the arm strength and Hogan the brains to come back to the ball. I still watch that play and think "what if".
Which leads me to, how much will arm strength weakens as Brady hits 40-41, and will he all of a sudden Peyton his throws that he used to rifle?
Which leads me to, how much will arm strength weakens as Brady hits 40-41, and will he all of a sudden Peyton his throws that he used to rifle?
I have trouble watching that play. I still get worried. The same is true with the play where Mitchell fell down.
In the last drive of the fourth quarter and the overtime, Brady threw a number of balls that could have been picked. Including on his last pass of the season. I think being down 25 at one point leads to a "fuck it" mode. Receivers can make you look like a genius. Hogan can play that ball into a pick easily -- it's a play we've seen dozens of times in the NFL. If you could go back and tivo Brady's brain waves and replay what was going on when the ball left his hand on the pass to Hogan, I bet there'd be a split second of "oh fuck," given how fast that hole was closing. (Just as Ryan probably had a bit of angst as he was delivering the ball to Jones on the sideline catch late in the game.)
The lore of the game is that the Falcons defense was crap and couldn't move and that the game was over with the coin flip. They were playing tight coverage and swarming to the ball throughout the entire game though. We've all seen drives where Brady just picks apart a defense and figures out the highest reward lowest risk coverages all down the field. He threw for a zillion yards in the fourth quarter and overtime in the Super Bowl, but it wasn't that kind of game. By necessity, he was taking bigger risks. It was interesting that in the OT, Brady still seemed to be playing the game as though they were losing late in the game. Just jamming the ball in there. I guess once you're in that mode, it's hard to get out. And if they go back to something less aggressive at that point they may not end up winning. At the end of the day, if you're going to win a championship in a game where you lead for zero point zero seconds, I guess you need all the inches to go your way.
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The guy who was in coverage on Amendola on Danny's touchdown, and on Hogan on the sideline throw in OT by Tom that scares me shitless too whenever I see it was #32, Jalen Collins. He's kind of a goat for the Atlanta defense. As pointed out in the video/pics thread, he didn't move when Brady moved Danny a few feet before the play when Danny was obviously his man. On Hogan's catch, he could have played it more aggressively, both in coverage and coming back to the ball. Or, he might have been gassed like a lot of Falcons probably were. He played 95 snaps and only four Falcons defenders played more (max 99). Five Pats defensive guys were in for 100% of possible plays (49 plays). That might say it all, just about 2:1 in snaps by team. Falcons gassed, but Brady and crew still had to execute to near perfection to pull it out.
Do most QBs lose significant arm strength at 40? Peyton seemed like an extreme case to me b/c of surgery.
I'd always thought the reason QBs fall off a cliff at 40 is because their most important physical trait is reaction time, and that can slow down significantly at that age, as with soccer goalkeepers.
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It absolutely was.
Jalen Collins didn't change direction as quickly as Amendola, and was moving away from Amendola as the ball was thrown, so when the ball arrived he was just getting back to Amendola. There was a definite window. Butler, on the other hand, changed direction pretty much in sync with the receiver.
At 40, you're losing strength, speed, reaction time, pretty much everything. With Manning it wasn't really even that his arm strength went - it was that everything else had gone, and when his arm strength declined at all, teams just Tee'd off on him - and when you take a quarterback with failing arm strength and force him to throw a lot without being able to set up and use his legs, you've got a mess. I think any quarterback this age has probably had a lot of physical decline, they're just good enough to cover a lot of it - but when they can't cover a specific weakness anymore, the wheels fall off.
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I still find this to be amazing. I wonder how many teams have won an NFL game leading for zero point zero seconds. It can obviously only happen if the winning team takes the lead on the last play of the game, never having led at any point in the game up til then. It has to have happened before SB 51, but it can't have happened very often.
Brady's analysis of the throws to Hogan in the OT and Mitchell on the play when he fell down on the MMBQ podcast is fascinating. It came down to trust both times. Trust based on all the repetition and practice. What Brady doesn't say is that it came down to trust in himself that he could put the ball in the exactly perfect spot. The spot where the Receiver knew the ball would be.
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/02/13/themmqb-podcast-peter-king-tom-brady-talks-super-bowl-51-comeback-julian-edelman-bill-belichick
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/02/13/themmqb-podcast-peter-king-tom-brady-talks-super-bowl-51-comeback-julian-edelman-bill-belichick
The Jets beat the Niners this year in OT 23-17 and never led until that point.
It's not uncommon with overtime. First game I looked at was:
Dolphins/Chiefs in 1971
where the Chiefs were leading the whole game or were tied, and the Dolphins won in OT
Then I had a few where there were lead changes, but there's Colts v. Packers in 1965
Where the Colts scored early, the Pack came back and then won in OT.
And the "Tuck Rule" game would work, too.
Dolphins/Chiefs in 1971
where the Chiefs were leading the whole game or were tied, and the Dolphins won in OT
Then I had a few where there were lead changes, but there's Colts v. Packers in 1965
Where the Colts scored early, the Pack came back and then won in OT.
And the "Tuck Rule" game would work, too.
Unfortunately there was no replay of the Gabriel incompletion on the broadcast. That said, I picked up these still shots from both catches. Collins was < a foot away from getting his hand on that pass. Not sure Butler could have gotten his hand on a pass to Gabriel, but YMMV and I seem to be in the minority here.
Basically the last still of the Gabriel throw shows that if Ryan hits him in his hands, there is nothing Butler can do about it. Brady made the throw, Ryan didn't. Ryan had a window, I think.
Agree to mildly disagree. Meaning I lean the other way but see your point.
However, one difference is that Brady had much more room prior to the sideline to work with. By the time Gabriel went into his break, he was very close to the sideline, making the window all the smaller.
Agree on the latter.
Wish Fox had shown a replay of the Gabriel incompletion. As I have written elsewhere, Butler really didn't have a good game, but I do want to give him some credit for what was probably his best coverage of the game on a target his direction on the most critical play of the game.
Apologies if someone mentioned this upthread but lost, at least for me, in the list of superlatives and key plays was Trey Flowers' pressure on the Falcons' last offensive play of the game. It was 3rd and 6 and Flowers gets so much pressure up the middle that Ryan is forced to just heave the ball up in the air, the result being the incompletion that Harmon caught while going out of bounds. It would have taken an amazing throw there to beat the Pats but a completion to the 35 or so would have likely done just that. I think Flowers' play is somewhat lost given the long list of amazing plays and the fact that Ryan foolishly checked down for four yards and wasted time before he clocked it on second down. But that game was still theoretically in the balance...and Flowers ratcheted up the degree of difficulty big time.
Hes a special player. What a year 2 jump. He basically turned into what they wanted Easley and Shread to be rolled into 1 player. His ability to pressure from outside in early downs and kick inside and push the pocket on 3rd and longs is going to do amazing things for this defense going forward
Bump. On the long pass to Gabriel on the last Falcons' TD drive, where it looks like Butler got juked out of his shoes, Gabriel actually steps on Butler's foot, causing him to trip. So I owe Butler an apology for that one.
Damn ... Hogan had serious running room possibilities after sending his defender out of his shoes on that play
He actually shoved him and pushed off probably 3-4 yards downfield. I'm confused as to whether that's a penalty or all part of the jousting within the 5-yard limit. It's his own man and he's not setting a pick. I've actually wondered if they would have thrown a flag had it gone to Hogan. It certainly was an easier pass than that throw to Danny, though.
Here, ten second mark:
Based on my hopefully accurate perusal of boxscores...the Falcons only had two games all year with four straight scoreless possessions: they were scoreless in their last four possessions of their November 13 loss to Philadelphia and in their last four possessions of the Super Bowl.
Edit: They also lost the Super Bowl.
Edit: They also lost the Super Bowl.