Belichick the GM - 2017 Review

How would you grade the 2017 offseason so far?

  • Pass

    Votes: 18 46.2%
  • Fail

    Votes: 6 15.4%
  • Still Too Early

    Votes: 15 38.5%

  • Total voters
    39

Greekca

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Feb 26, 2017
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As with the draft, it is tough to give a completely accurate review of offseason moves until a few years down the road, but I think we have had enough evidence to start having some amateur conversations about some of Belichick's moves. To remind everyone, before the season started many pundits were saying that New England had "won" the offseason and likened this past offseason to 2007 when Belichick loaded up with offensive weapons.

I thought it would be best to separate transactions into big and small. Clearly, the backup offensive guard that sees about 50 snaps over the season doesn't quite have the same affect on the season as a starting CB. I also have decided to ignore the Jimmy Garoppolo move as that as been discussed in many other threads. However, I do want to revisit a couple big moves made last season that I think sort of kicked off the 2017 offseason much like the Garoppolo trade sort of kicked off the 2018 offseason.

Big Moves

Chandler Jones
Traded to AZ in exchange for Jonathan Cooper (released) and 61st overall draft pick (turned into Joe Thuney and Malcolm Mitchell).

This move has been discussed quite a bit, but how good would Jones look on the Patriots right now? An edge rusher who can get after the QB and more or less hold the edge in the run game seems to be exactly what the Patriots are missing. Clearly, Belichick nailed the financial aspect of this move by guessing that Jones would be able to sign for a monster number in the offseason (5 years, $83 million ($53 million in guarantees)).

Pass for now: This seems like a good move as the thinking seemed to be: "We won't be able to sign him, so lets get something rather than nothing." Obviously, the return looks worse this year than before the season with Thuney clearly the weak link along the line at times and Mitchell missing almost the whole season.

Jamie Collins
Traded to CLE in exchange for 103rd overall pick in 2017 trade (later flipped in the Cooks trade).

This move has been discussed quite a bit, but again how good would Collins look on the Patriots right now? An ultra athletic LB who can cover TEs and RBs out in space seems to be the other piece the defense is sorely lacking. Clearly, Belichick nailed the financial aspect of this move by guessing that Collins would be able to sign for a monster number in the offseason (4 years, $50 million ($26.5 million in guarantees)).

Pass for now: Similar to Jones, Belichick was right about the finances. But also like Jones I think we are seeing why teams pay up for these type of guys. Players with the skill sets of Jones and Collins don't exactly grow on trees. The choice seemed to be elite pass rusher (Jones), elite athletic LB (Collins), or elite CB (Gilmore). Belichick seemed to choose door #3.

Stephon Gilmore
Signed for 5 years, $65 million ($40 million guaranteed)

Gilmore has certainly had his adjustment period and people's view of this signing seems to depend on when in the season you ask them. Really struggled in the early going, turned it on for a few weeks, then got abused like the rest of the defense against Miami.

Pass: I expected an adjustment period (maybe not this much), but given the up and down success of Patriots CBs over the years the defensive system seems like it has complications. I think Gilmore has shown that he can play at that elite level, but like most corners there are types of players that he struggles to cover. I also like this move because CB seems to be an area that Belichick really struggles to identify talent through the draft (almost as bad as WR). The list of failed second and third round DBs is extremely long. So, when analyzing Jones, Collins, or Gilmore I have a lot more faith in his ability to eventually find an elite DL or LB through the draft than I do about adding an elite CB.

Brandin Cooks
Acquired from NO along with #118 overall in 2017 (forfeited) in exchange for #32 and #103 in the 2017 draft.

I think Cooks has proven that he is a top 10-15 receiver in the NFL in the Patriots system, but has also proven that he is not in the same realm as the truly elite guys who can get open regardless of coverage or who is covering them. He certainly has the ability to blow a game open, but can also completely disappear from the game.

Pass: Similar to Gilmore, I give this a pass grade because I think Belichick recognized that he has really struggled to identify WR talent through the draft, and given Cooks age and contract status he would rather take the sure thing than gamble with the first round pick.

Dont'a Hightower
Re-signed for 4 years, $43.5 million ($17 million guaranteed)

In somewhat predictable fashion, Hightower has only played 5 games this year and is currently on injured reserve. Hightower has averaged only 12 games a season over his 6 year career.

Fail: We all know how good Hightower can be when he is on the field, but for a coach that seems to stress your ability to be on the field and contributing over everything else, Hightower seemed like an odd choice to win the re-sign lottery. They structured his contract with his injury history in mind, but his consistent inability to stay on the field has really hurt the team this year.

2017 NFL Draft

Incomplete: The returns from the draft weren't expected to be much given the Cooks trade, Inflategate penalties, and other trades. However, when you add in key injuries to your top 2 picks on top of all that, the expectations drop even further. In fact, Wise is the only draft pick to contribute anything this season. Luckily, Butler has been a positive contribution and Hollister has helped here and there.


Small Moves

Pass:

Brandon Bolden
Brandon King
Cameron Fleming
Duron Harmon
Johnson Bademosi
Lawrence Guy
Marquis Flowers
Rex Burkhead

Rex Burkhead is the clear winner from the small moves department. The big mistake was giving Burkhead only a 1 year deal. He seemed to have a decent amount of suitors and could very well be playing himself right out of New England for 2018. Many of the moves to sure up special teams (Bolden, King, Bademosi, and Flowers) have seemingly worked out. Harmon has provided similar level of play to last year and Guy has been a bit up and down, but I would say more up than down.

Fail:


Alan Branch
Cassius Marsh
David Harris
Dwayne Allen
Kony Ealy
Mike Gillislee
Phillip Dorsett

This section is more what sparked me to start this thread. I don't remember an offseason in which Belichick had so many clear absolute failures. Ealy didn't make it out of training camp, Harris, Gillislee, and Dorsett have all had multiple games with zero contributions, and Marsh didn't make it through the season. Branch has taken a huge step back from his 2016 playing level and Allen might as well be replaced by an offensive lineman. Like every GM, Belichick has had his bad moves over the years, but I just don't remember this many who have essentially played well below replacement level. This also doesn't factor in guys like Long and Sheard that the Patriots elected not to re-sign.

Summary

For a team that "won the offseason", I would characterize this as actually a pretty poor effort so far. The only players that seem to be overperforming expectations are Burkhead, Butler, and maybe Wise and Bademosi (all roles players). Gilmore and Cooks appear to be performing at or slightly below expectations and almost every other news worthy signing or trade has played well below expectations. I think if the pundits were to go back and re-grade the offseason, I would expect the Patriots to struggle to do better than the middle of the pack. A far cry from one of Belichick's "best offseasons" where he was playing chess and everyone else was playing checkers.
 

InstaFace

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Firstly, great post, I enjoyed it.

I'll give BB a B at the moment, but it's a long way from a fail.

We've seen several Belistrator episodes where he points out David Harris's contributions to the play that don't show up in the stat sheet, and he's been a sure tackler. No, he isn't Jamie Collins, but he also doesn't cost $13M/yr. Likewise Dwayne Allen, who keeps getting snaps despite our game threads not liking him, and who keeps making great blocks or being in the right position even if he had the dropsies earlier in the year. Would I rather have him (and a 6th) than have the average 4th rounder? I'm not too sure, I think so, but it's certainly not a slam dunk either way.

I also think it's completely unfair to give him a fail for Hightower getting injured. Hightower ended 2016 in fine health, having played 13 regular-season games + 3 playoff games, including making the single most important play of the super bowl. Football players get injured, somewhat randomly; there's very little the GM can do about it. Your remark that he got injured "in somewhat predictable fashion" is complete revisionist history, and frankly a bit of a stain on an otherwise objective and thorough review.

Overall, this hasn't exactly been the 06-07 offseason in terms of having the golden touch, but I think it's hard to call it anything other than a good job given that he got Harrison Bergeron'd with the loss of a 1st last year and a 4th this year.
 

Greekca

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I would hardly call it revisionist history. The guy played 12 regular season games in 2014, 12 in 2015, and 13 in 2016 and has only played one full season in his 6 year career. He also was not "fully" healthy in the games in which he did play. I would also argue the way the contract is written also clearly accounts for a player with a checkered injury history. While not unique to Hightower's contract, Hightower currently has the largest per game roster bonus on the Patriots roster at $875,000 per year. Obviously, that is a bit skewed by his contract, but does indicate an effort by the Patriots to protect themselves in case of injury.

While his injury this year is clearly the worst of his career, I think counting on Hightower to play a complete season without injury would be an extremely poor bet.
 

Super Nomario

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Jamie Collins

This move has been discussed quite a bit, but again how good would Collins look on the Patriots right now?
Like Hightower, Collins is on IR.

I think if you're going to include the Jones trade (which is frankly mystifying) and Collins (more understandable), you should also include some of the mid-season deals last year that spilled into 2017, notably Kyle Van Noy (but also including Eric Rowe, trading away A.J. Derby, and probably a couple others I am forgetting).

I think your grades on the Gilmore, Cooks, Hightower, and 2017 draft are more-or-less fair.

This section is more what sparked me to start this thread. I don't remember an offseason in which Belichick had so many clear absolute failures. Ealy didn't make it out of training camp, Harris, Gillislee, and Dorsett have all had multiple games with zero contributions, and Marsh didn't make it through the season. Branch has taken a huge step back from his 2016 playing level and Allen might as well be replaced by an offensive lineman. Like every GM, Belichick has had his bad moves over the years, but I just don't remember this many who have essentially played well below replacement level. This also doesn't factor in guys like Long and Sheard that the Patriots elected not to re-sign.
This is where I fundamentally disagree with you. First of all, whiffing on these small moves is not unusual. Remember Reggie Wayne, Jonathan Fanene, Adrian Wilson, John Lynch, Shawn Springs, Leigh Bodden, Scott Chandler, Barkevious Mingo, Isaac Sopoaga, Greg Lewis, Greg Salas, OK I'm going to stop now, but you get my point. Secondly, whiffing on these small moves isn't a big deal, because they're small moves. The cost was minimal on most of these. One Burkhead doesn't cancel out one Kony Ealy, it cancels out like four. One of the reasons the Patriots are so successful year after year is because they make a lot of these moves, hit on maybe half of them, and make their team better. I think that's something that's difficult for this sort of point-by-point analysis to pick up on.
 

Bowhemian

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If the Pats don't end the season the way we want it to, will it be considered a BB fail?
I posit that the answer is no, and the main reason for that is injuries. This team has had terrible injury luck this season, starting with the stupid pre-season games. What have been seemingly minor injuries turn out to be lengthy absences, if not season enders. I understand that every team has injuries that hurt the team, it just seems like this year for the Pats has been pretty bad.

The moves in the off-season were solid I think. There were a lot of questions that BB was not going to answer with $$$$ contracts $$$. The salary cap would have been smoked had they signed every player to long term deals that we wanted them to sign.
 

InstaFace

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If they end the season with Brady and Gronk healthy and don't come away with an AFC title, I will be surprised. I think the season would be a failure if they lose before the AFCCG, given the legendary talent on this team and on its sidelines.

Injuries happen every year. Unless you've got a Brady 2008 situation, or you're like the Packers this year and truly have an epidemic, I don't think it should be used as an excuse. Even with Hightower and Edelman, the Pats are doing middle-of-the-pack if you count by "man-games lost", though due to the quality of those 2, we're among the bigger bubbles below based on "estimated AV lost". The latest data from that site is:

 

lexrageorge

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Overall, I give the offseason a B-.

Losing top 2 draft picks to injury hurts, but that really cannot be put on Belichick. Does make next draft fairly critical, however. He had to make some tough choices on Jones and Collins, but I really disagree with the OP's assessment on the Chandler Jones trade. It's not clear Jones wanted to stay in NE. And Thuney has not been anywhere near the "weak link in the OL"; he had one bad game against Miami.

Cooks and Gilmore haven't been quite the world beaters that we had hoped; perhaps we fell for inflated expectations in both cases. However, Cooks has been valuable given the injuries this season to Edelman and Hogan; Hogan also hasn't been quite the same dynamic player he was last season when he led the league in yards/catch. Gilmore has improved; just that the struggles and injuries on the front 7 have put a lot of stress on the secondary.

The Pats successfully retooled the running backs after letting Blount walk. The latter is a bit of a head scratcher, given that LGBT signed with the Eagles for short money and is having a decent season, even if he's getting into the end zone a lot less. However, BB has always subscribed to letting guys go a year too early than too late, and RB's do fade rapidly once they cross 30.
 

BigSoxFan

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Cooks is on pace for a 66/1137/6 season, which is basically what he’s been so far in his career. Don’t think he’s ever going to be more than a 70-80 catch guy. He’s had only 3/55 last 2 weeks but is still top 10 in the league in yards. I think Cooks has basically been as advertised.

I was surprised by the longing for Collins in the OP. He has been utter dogshit in Cleveland and had mailed it in his last year here. And that was after getting his ass handed to him by Owen fucking Daniels in the biggest game of the year in 2015. Collins was a fun player when he was engaged but he really hasn’t been anything special for a long time now and I just don’t think he cares.
 

Van Everyman

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The Cooks stuff also seems to me to be partly a factor of Edelman being hurt. Yes, the offense still has Gronk and the running backs have been good in the passing game after a number of weeks they seemed to disappear. But they don’t have the same underneath game they had with Edelman (and Welker before him) that would’ve allowed Cooks to really stretch the field.

As a result, and particularly in the last few games with Hogan hurt and Gronk out they’ve been asking Cooks to be a third down slant guy at times which just isn’t his game.
 

jsinger121

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Two moves that were busts were the Kony Ealy deal. He stunk and didn't make it out of the preseason. The Cassius Marsh deal was horrendous too giving up a 5th and 7th round pick for that had no business being in the Patriots system coming from a system like Seattle.
 

DJnVa

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Got an alert on my phone today, referencing Schaffer, that BB knowingly took less from SF because he didn’t want JG to have to go to Cleveland.
 

EdRalphRomero

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Got an alert on my phone today, referencing Schaffer, that BB knowingly took less from SF because he didn’t want JG to have to go to Cleveland.
I certainly hope that is true. If it is, it can only enhance the pull of playing for BB for high caliber players. Getting JG to SF after he worked hard and played it straight is a decent thing to do. To be honest though, there are only a few truly well run football teams in the NFL -- everywhere else is Cleveland.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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If they end the season with Brady and Gronk healthy and don't come away with an AFC title, I will be surprised. I think the season would be a failure if they lose before the AFCCG, given the legendary talent on this team and on its sidelines.

Injuries happen every year. Unless you've got a Brady 2008 situation, or you're like the Packers this year and truly have an epidemic, I don't think it should be used as an excuse. Even with Hightower and Edelman, the Pats are doing middle-of-the-pack if you count by "man-games lost", though due to the quality of those 2, we're among the bigger bubbles below based on "estimated AV lost". The latest data from that site is:

Curious as to which players other than Brady or Gronk you’d label as ‘legendary talent ’ on this team?
 

BigJimEd

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I certainly hope that is true. If it is, it can only enhance the pull of playing for BB for high caliber players. Getting JG to SF after he worked hard and played it straight is a decent thing to do. To be honest though, there are only a few truly well run football teams in the NFL -- everywhere else is Cleveland.
I doubt it would have much if any effect on attracting players to Foxboro.
The reason I can see them accepting a little less is because they wanted Hoyer. Plus they may have wanted him or if the conference although I'm not sure that is worth a ton.


If they could have gotten an early first in the draft then I think they screwed it up royally but we've covered that part of it before.
 

Van Everyman

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Curious as to which players other than Brady or Gronk you’d label as ‘legendary talent ’ on this team?
I think he means three people: Brady, Gronk and BB.

It's actually kind of an interesting way of thinking about the Patriots' success: who else during this run is a "legendary" talent? I'd argue: no one. Which is kind of insane when you consider the run they've had -- that on a team of 53 people this 17 year run is almost entirely due to two people, one of whom isn't even on the field. I don't even include Gronk in this because Brady and BB have shown they don't even need receivers, much less a Gronk, to get a game from the Super Bowl (2006 and 2013) or to win one (2016).

Honestly, this probably belongs in Celebrating What Is. Or a hash pipe.
 

InstaFace

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Curious as to which players other than Brady or Gronk you’d label as ‘legendary talent ’ on this team?
As VE said: None. But I think two HOFers plus a HOF coach on the sidelines ought to be enough to make the final 4, don't you?

His handling of both Butler and JG leave me puzzled.
JG makes sense to me. He cancelled his insurance policy to get a pro-rated refund.

Butler was all rumor and third-hand sources this offseason, let's see what he makes of it this coming offseason. It's possible he poisoned a relationship there, but Butler's looked great out there.
 

InstaFace

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I'm not even sure what you're arguing for at this point, other than the sake of being argumentative.

How about stating your opinion, positively? Bowhemian's question in post #5 is what started this tangent, in case you need a reference point. It's relevant to the topic because grading Belichick-the-GM is substantially affected by what your expectations are / were going into the season.
 

Harry Hooper

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Got an alert on my phone today, referencing Schaffer, that BB knowingly took less from SF because he didn’t want JG to have to go to Cleveland.
Could be true, plus the trade to SF had the Hoyer component built into it. We know BB has tolerated a struggling punter in the past to keep the kicker's preferred holder on the team. Brady's known comfort level with Hoyer vs. bringing in an entirely new backup QB mid-season was likely a factor in the move.
 

lexrageorge

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JG: I think it's been mentioned a thousand times that there was never any indication that the Pats would have gotten a Top 10 draft pick for Garappolo. Just a couple of media "hot takez" guys speculating what might happen.

Maybe the Pats would have gotten more from the Browns than from the 49'ers, but the Hoyer factor and the out-of-conference factor need to be considered.

Butler: Not sure why this is an issue. Butler was an RFA, and the Pats negotiated with him as an RFA, and he eventually signed with the team after firing his incompetent agent.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I'm not even sure what you're arguing for at this point, other than the sake of being argumentative.

How about stating your opinion, positively? Bowhemian's question in post #5 is what started this tangent, in case you need a reference point. It's relevant to the topic because grading Belichick-the-GM is substantially affected by what your expectations are / were going into the season.
I'm not being argumentative, I'm stating my opinion. You're simplifying it down to Brady/BB should be enough to get them to the ACFCG and ignoring that there's a lot more to it than that. It's not enough and we've seen it.

As to pre-season expectations, quite frankly, none of us know dick about it. It's not plugging a guy into a hole at 1B or LF. There's been plenty of years where we sit around and pat ourselves on the back and throw up :beatit: emojis over his acquisitions or trades and they turn out to be worthless, because they get injured or don't work in the scheme or whatever.

I wasn't arguing anything until you made the statement that BB/TB should be enough to get them to the semifinals. I asked a simple question to your initial statement of "legendary talent" on the team and then replied to your response. How about backing up your tangent with telling us how a QB and a coach are all that matters?
 

Captaincoop

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JG: I think it's been mentioned a thousand times that there was never any indication that the Pats would have gotten a Top 10 draft pick for Garappolo. Just a couple of media "hot takez" guys speculating what might happen.

Maybe the Pats would have gotten more from the Browns than from the 49'ers, but the Hoyer factor and the out-of-conference factor need to be considered.

Butler: Not sure why this is an issue. Butler was an RFA, and the Pats negotiated with him as an RFA, and he eventually signed with the team after firing his incompetent agent.
If Jimmy is so good that he has you worried about facing the Browns in the playoffs, maybe don't trade him at all?
 

DJnVa

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If Jimmy is so good that he has you worried about facing the Browns in the playoffs, maybe don't trade him at all?
It wasn't that (supposedly). It was that BB didn't want to trade a guy he respected to that dumpster fire of a franchise.

https://sports.yahoo.com/patriots-wanted-right-jimmy-garoppolo-didnt-trade-browns-145348406.html

An interview from ESPN’s Adam Schefter offered one theory: The Patriots apparently didn’t want to send him to Cleveland, where quarterbacks’ careers die. Schefter said once the Patriots figured out a couple days before the deadline they had to trade Garoppolo (I’m not sure why it took that long; the writing was on the wall for a long time), they reached out to the 49ers even though the Browns had tried “over and over” in the spring to get Garoppolo and tried again in the fall but got nowhere.

“In this particular case, New England came to the realization before it made any calls, ‘Ok, unfortunately for us, as much as we want to keep Jimmy Garoppolo, we can’t,’ ” Schefter said on the “Murph & Mac” show on KNBR (h/t to 49ers Web Zone). “‘We have to trade him, and we’ve got to trade him here in the next two days. Where do we want to trade him? I like John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan. I think they’re going to do right by Jimmy G. Let’s call them.”
 

EdRalphRomero

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I doubt it would have much if any effect on attracting players to Foxboro.
The reason I can see them accepting a little less is because they wanted Hoyer. Plus they may have wanted him or if the conference although I'm not sure that is worth a ton.
Obviously pretty hard to quantify the impact on attracting players. For what it is worth (probably not much) BB has a profile of a certain type of player, of whom he asks for a high level of commitment. Doing right by those types of players when you have the opportunity, has a value. Quantifying it is probably impossibly subjective. But personally and professionally I believe in the approach.
 

BuellMiller

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Two moves that were busts were the Kony Ealy deal. He stunk and didn't make it out of the preseason. The Cassius Marsh deal was horrendous too giving up a 5th and 7th round pick for that had no business being in the Patriots system coming from a system like Seattle.
I think this goes to show how good Belichick the GM has been...if your two worst deals of an offseason are giving up the equivalent of two 5th round picks (in consecutive drafts) for players who didn't amount to anything, well, you could definitely do a lot worse. If that's the case, technically the worst move they made as far as this past offseason goes was not letting their balls obey the IG law back in Jan 2015, and losing a 4th rounder.