Bobby Dalbec

Koufax

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This 21 year-old 3B prospect starred as a two-way player at Arizona, including a stand-out performance in the 2016 College World Series as a starting pitcher. He prefers to play third base, and gave up pitching when he played for Lowell last year, where he posted an OPS of 1.104 based upon a slash of .386/.430 /.674.

He strikes out a lot. Despite the performance at Lowell, he is not expected to hit for a high average, but he has abundant raw power. His throwing arm is strong and accurate. His footwork is so-so but his length (he's 6'4") gives him more range in the field than his footwork would suggest.

Sox prospects ranks him #5 in the system and says he'll start out the year in Salem. They project him to hit the major leagues in 2019. He was drafted in the 4th round in 2016.

I'll be following him this season and posting here occasionally about his results. Those of you who see him play should let us know what you think.
 

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Looking pretty good coming out of the gate with a .333/.385/.417 after three games. 2 RBIs tonight in a 3-2 win.
 

Koufax

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Two doubles and a single last night bring him to .421/ .476/ .579 after 5 games.
 

Koufax

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A home run on Tuesday in a 3-2 win. His line is now .318 / .423 / .455 after 13 games.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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And that's with a 32.7% strikeout rate. If that rate doesn't come down while in Greenville, he doesn't stand much chance of succeeding at the highest levels of the minors, never mind the majors even with plus power and excellent patience. It's early, though. Plenty of time for that rate to drop. And the swing and miss in his game is something the Red Sox new he'd need to work on when he was drafted. That's probably why they opted to start him in Greenville and not Salem.

Of course, if he's maintaining a 157 wRC+ after a couple of months despite that k rate, he may need to be bumped up for the challenge before he'll be forced to really address it.
 

Cesar Crespo

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They were smart to assign him to Greenville instead of Salem given the strikeouts but I'm not sure 52 PA tells you much about k/bb rates but it's definitely something to keep an eye on.

On a positive note, this year he has 7bb on 52 PA after only having 9 in 143 last year. Does he actually have excellent patience? Looks like he might be taking a more patient approach at the plate this year in the early going anyway but excellent patience isn't something I've seen associated with him.
 

The Talented Allen Ripley

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Chavis is blocking Dalbec in Salem, so I don't think Hi-A was a realistic option to start the season under any circumstance.

In a perfect world, Dalbec, Chavis and Devers will all keep up their hot starts and receive coordinated promotions mid-to-late summer.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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On a positive note, this year he has 7bb on 52 PA after only having 9 in 143 last year. Does he actually have excellent patience? Looks like he might be taking a more patient approach at the plate this year in the early going anyway but excellent patience isn't something I've seen associated with him.
That was more me pointing out that even if everything else breaks right for him, a k rate that high in Greenville (over a larger sample if it continues) doesn't leave me with a ton of confidence in his ability to be a plus bat at higher levels.

I don't think anyone really has an accurate read on him as a hitter since he just started doing it full time last summer after being drafted. And his rates last year probably don't tell us much since he was basically playing a video game... swinging at everything and crushing it all. He didn't need to be patient since anything near the zone he was able to obliterate.

Now that he's in full season ball, he'll need to be more selective about when he swings. And that ability to be disciplined will be more important as he is promoted.
 

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Mr. Dalbec has hit a rough patch. His batting average for the last 10 games is .195, bringing his slash line to .265 ./ .363 / .365.

On May 2d, his BA bottomed out at .235, so the current .265 represents a bit of a resurgence since then, a bounceback that includes one home run.
 
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Out until July with hamate bone surgery.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Since returning from the DL: 13g, 54 PA, .234/.321/.340 on a .313 BAbip. 6bb/14k.

Unless he closes the season with a huge bang, he has to be one of the bigger disappointments of the season.
 

edoug

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4/5 with a 2B and HR (10) in Greenville's 10-0 rout of Columbia. His average is now .240. He also struck out once.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Strikeout rate since returning is 36.7%. We may be living in a new era with regard to K-rates, but he's gotta improve on that if he's ever going to sniff the major leagues.
 

riboflav

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My son and I went to the Salem at Potomac game today and Dalbec was meh. But, the catcher, Baldwin (22) was impressive with several great stops behind the dish and throwing out a would-be stealer plus he had another hit. At 22, he has a .965 OPS this year, thus far.

As an aside, the Sox were down 5-2 in the ninth with two outs, Joe Oliver sent the runner home from second on a single and was thrown out to end the game. So, yes, the tying run would have come to the plate. I ripped up my Oliver baseball cards when I got home (jk).
 

EdRalphRomero

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Through 6/5/18 Dalbec has a .216/.346/.494 line in high A (he turns 23 end of this month).

He is hitting .216 but has an .840 OPS! He has 38 hits this season of which 25 have been for extra bases! He has 32 walks in 208 plate appearances. The closer I look at any statistic for this guy the more my head hurts.
 

EdRalphRomero

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Kid is on a tear. Over his last 10 games he is 11 for 36 with 4 home runs and 7 walks! He has raised his line to .223/.353/.511. 41 hits of which 27 are extra bases.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Kid is on a tear. Over his last 10 games he is 11 for 36 with 4 home runs and 7 walks! He has raised his line to .223/.353/.511. 41 hits of which 27 are extra bases.
That's pretty radical. Anyone want to guess who's the only major leaguer ever to have a full, batting-title-qualifying season slash line with OBP over .350, SLG over .500 and BA under .230?

Carlos Pena, 2009
 

Cesar Crespo

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Lin now has a hit in 27 of his last 28 starts in AAA. Dalbec hit HR #19 and has his average up to .240.

edit: Dalbec is now up to .245 for the year, adding 2 more doubles to his day. Currently 3/4. Now up to .296/.383/.736 in his last 36 games and 149 PA. That includes 15 doubles and 10 HRs. A .440 ISO over a 149 PA stretch is no joke. He also has 18bb/41k in that time.

It's 3 straight games with a HR, 4 in his last 5 games, 5 in his last 8.
 
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Cuzittt

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Dalbec hit HR #19 and has his average up to .240.

edit: Dalbec is now up to .245 for the year, adding 2 more doubles to his day. Currently 3/4. Now up to .296/.383/.736 in his last 36 games and 149 PA. That includes 15 doubles and 10 HRs. A .440 ISO over a 149 PA stretch is no joke. He also has 18bb/41k in that time.

It's 3 straight games with a HR, 4 in his last 5 games, 5 in his last 8.
Have to think that Dalbec and C.J. Chatham each are looking at a move to Portland in the near future. Maybe after the All-Star Break. (Dalbec and Chavis could split time at 3B and DH.)
 

Plympton91

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Dalbac is still whiffing more than 1 of 4 plate appearances. And he’s only walked 2 of his last 41. I think they should keep letting him develop in A. It’s nice to see the power coming out in spades though.

Chatham has been really consistent though and there’s no one off note at SS in AA. Bringing him up would be good.

Pomeranz at 89-91 should be ok if he has command. But who is he actually better than if Wright is healthy too?
 

Cuzittt

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Dalbac is still whiffing more than 1 of 4 plate appearances. And he’s only walked 2 of his last 41. I think they should keep letting him develop in A. It’s nice to see the power coming out in spades though.
Dalbec is going to strike out. He is very much a three outcome hitter. I realize that should be generally averse to high strikeout rates from our prospects... but if his three outcomes are hit an extra base hit, walk, and strikeout... I'm kinda ok with it.

The walk thing, however, is a canard. Yes, in those 41 (actually 43) plate appearances (from 6/27-7/7), Dalbec walked twice. He also clubbed seven doubles, five homers, a triple, and two singles. For a line of .385/.395/1.000. But, more to the point, he had walks in the two games previous to the beginning point... and then walked twice last night.

It is a reasonable position to keep Dalbec in Salem for a while longer, especially with Chavis returning to Portland. Defensive reps (for both of them) is not an unimportant part of the equation. However, if he continues to blast extra base hits like he has been, it will be more difficult to justify. [Dalbec leads the league in doubles by five (with 25) and HRs by 2 (with 19)]
 

Plympton91

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Dalbec is going to strike out. He is very much a three outcome hitter. I realize that should be generally averse to high strikeout rates from our prospects... but if his three outcomes are hit an extra base hit, walk, and strikeout... I'm kinda ok with it.

The walk thing, however, is a canard. Yes, in those 41 (actually 43) plate appearances (from 6/27-7/7), Dalbec walked twice. He also clubbed seven doubles, five homers, a triple, and two singles. For a line of .385/.395/1.000. But, more to the point, he had walks in the two games previous to the beginning point... and then walked twice last night.

It is a reasonable position to keep Dalbec in Salem for a while longer, especially with Chavis returning to Portland. Defensive reps (for both of them) is not an unimportant part of the equation. However, if he continues to blast extra base hits like he has been, it will be more difficult to justify. [Dalbec leads the league in doubles by five (with 25) and HRs by 2 (with 19)]
Yeah, I agree it is a great sign that the ISO has reached really elite levels even though he’s only a bit old for the league. And, thanks for the additional context just outside the “last 10 games” on his walk rate. I remain cautious only because, as you well know, the walk rates decline and the K rates rise, all else equal, as you leap from the bushes to AA and then AAA.

If he could get that K rate down below 1 in 4, then I’d really start to get excited.
 

Cuzittt

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Breaking up Dalbec by month (with full knowledge that any splitting up of the season thus far would be arbitrary as is this).

April: .215/.344/.494 - 13 BB/32 K, 5 1B, 7 2B, 5 HR - 96 PA (K/PA = 33.3%)
May: .220/.350/.463 - 15 BB/30 K, 8 1B, 5 2B, 5 HR - 100 PA (K/PA = 30%)
June: .244/.358/.500 - 15 BB/35K, 9 1B, 8 2B, 5 HR - 109 PA (K/PA = 32%)
July: .424/.462/1.000 - 4 BB/8 K, 4 1B, 5 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR - 39 PA (K/PA = 20.5%)

Obviously, he is white hot right now... so July (besides being far smaller) is likely not representative. But, his first three months was pretty consistent in every single way... and other than a low batting average, is not really bad given the type of prospect he is. That being said... if July is a corner turned.

One other way of looking at Dalbec with regards to his strikeouts isn't just his total strikeouts over the period but how often he strikes out in any game. And doesn't strike out in a game. So... let's go to that data.

April: 5 games with 3Ks. 5 games with 2 K. 7 games with 1 K. 6 games with 0 K (none consecutive)
May: 3 games with 3 Ks. 5 games with 2K. 11 games with 1 K. 5 games with 0 K (3 consecutive at the end of the month - 4 for 9 with a double, a HR, and 2 walks)
June: 2 games with 4 Ks. 1 game with 3Ks. 6 games with 2 Ks. 12 games with 1 K. 5 games with 0 K (none consecutive)
[From 5/25-6/7, Dalbec had a .286/.404/.714 line with 3 doubles, 5 HRs, 8 walks, and 7 Ks... never striking out more than once in a game.]
July: 3 games with 2 Ks, 2 games with 1 K, 4 games with 0 K (2 consecutive).

Again, interesting. I'm not sure what it all means... but interesting.

OK... one last thing. On 5-12, Dalbec went 0-for-4 with 1 K. Since then... he has batted .299/.403/.634 with 17 doubles, 1 3B, and 12 HRs with 29 walks and 57Ks (BABIP .370). He has also reached base (hit, walk, hit by pitch) in every one of the 48 game sample EXCEPT:

5/20 (game 1) - 0-for-3, 3Ks.
6/10 - 0-for-4, 4Ks
6/28 - 0-for-4, 4Ks
7/2 - 0-for-3, SF, 0 Ks.

I mean, that is a seriously impressive two month stretch that is being missed because he started out really slowly (the opposite split start of year to 5-12: .183/.308/.425, 8 2B, 8 HR, 18 BB, 48K (34 games/BABIP .227).

While I completely understand keeping him in Salem (especially with Chavis)... I really want to see what he can do in AA.
 

Cuzittt

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From my notes from the 7/11 MiLB Gameday:

With Bobby Dalbec's 4-for-4 with two homer night last night, Dalbec now has 21 HRs (which is a Red Sox era record in Salem), has 12 career homers at Haley Toyota Field (also known as home) which ties Michael Chavis, and is three homers away from Brandon Jacobs career record of 24 bombs for Salem.

Dalbec in his last 10 games (which magically accounts for all of July) is batting .486/.512/1.162 with 18 hits (one more than April, the same as May) with five doubles, six homers, and only eight Ks.

Since the All-Star break (an additional eight games), he is batting .397/.442/.882 with 10 doubles and 7 HRs.
 

grimshaw

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While I don't find the Bobby Dalbec model interesting to watch, I'm not sure how much benefit he's getting in Salem since he can work on defense in Portland. He has clearly solved that level offensively.

I've noticed the Sox have been very conservative on promotions this season. Even after the draft.
 

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Now at .257/.369/.524 including 21 HRs.
 
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grimshaw

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.255/.370/.557 as of this morning. Dude is slugging .557! 8 walks in the last 10 games is encouraging as well.
I wouldn't use recent stats since he's had a rough go of it. He's struck out in 8 of his last 13 at bats and 16 of 33. Right when it seemed he deserved a promotion.

I'd like to see what he can do against real prospects in AA who may not be pitching around him.
 

Plympton91

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Back to mashing tonight. 2-4 with a HR and a BB. 1 K.

The cold stretch may have been a small adjustment by the league’s pitchers. If he shows he can adjust back by having another hot streak, that might get him his promotion.
 

oumbi

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An update and an interesting story on Dalbec.

First, the update. Currently, he is at Portland and in 9 games (33 AB, a SSS) he is hitting:

.364/.421/.848 with an OPS of 1.270.


Second, the story. Below is being directly stolen from Soxprospects' drrigormortis post. Thank you Doc.

http://forum.soxprospects.com/thread/4623/another-homer-bobby-dalbec-thread?page=11

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Dalbec had been recruited as an infielder by Arizona (UA bio page) and practiced accordingly. It was the dire situation of the 2014 team's pitching staff that led to him throwing 38 innings in relief. The coaches would pull him off 3B in the middle of a game to replace whoever was struggling on the mound. Since college practice periods and their duration are limited by NCAA rules, Dalbec's pitching reps had to stand back behind hitting and fielding. Of course there were still voluntary practices in absence of the coaches. Nevertheless, with classroom work and reps at three positions, it had been widely acknowledged that he was one of the busiest students in the whole athletic program.

In 2015, with Arizona's pitching situation further deteriorating, Dalbec got his first starts in the later stages of Pac-12 conference play. Despite coming in cold, he had pitched better than some of the weekend starters. He tossed 61.2 innings in his sophomore season.

After a coaching change ahead of the 2016 season, initial plans saw Dalbec back on 3B full time. While the overall performance of the pitching staff had improved, an injury to one of the weekend starters brought Dalbec back to his least favorite task. He ended up pitching 100.2 innings, 36.1 of them as a postseason starter, all the way to the College World Series final.

With the 2016 postseason looming and the Friday starter still out, the coaches ordered Dalbec to take more pitching reps in practice. He showed above average control on all of his pitches (slider, changeup, 95 mph fastball, off-speed, IIRC). One reason behind it might have been his tremendous arm. He threw relatively effortless in favor of better control and location and was able to keep his fastball in the low to mid 90s throughout nine innings.

Dalbec became one of the most dominant pitchers of the 2016 college postseason (1.49 ERA, 36.1 IP, 10 BB, 41 SO in six games) and would have been drafted higher, had he been willing to pitch.

How good was he? On June 10th Dalbec pitched 8.2 shutout innings, allowing five hits, to beat Cardinals #4 prospect Dakota Hudson in the 2016 Super Regional in front of 13,000 rampaging Mississippi State fans in Starkville, MS (news article).

One of the craziest games I've seen. With Dalbec dominating opposing hitters, including Twins #7 prospect Brent Rooker, MSU desperately cut off the power around campus in the 8th inning in an attempt to ice Arizona's starter. That happened around 7 pm with still enough daylight to finish the game. However, the floodlight MSU kept running throughout the game for no (apparent) reason had gone dark, too. As scripted, MSU's coach John Cohen refused to continue until power was restored, while Arizona's skipper insisted on finishing the game. With the discussion at home plate heating up quickly, both schools' athletic directors went down and joined the party. But there was a twist: Arizona's AD, Greg Byrne (now at Alabama), used to be MSU's AD before he left for Tucson. Not only had he hired MSU's baseball coach, he also used to be their new AD's boss. After 30 minutes of mostly yelling between those guys, MSU turned the power back on and the game continued with a 40 min delay. Dalbec, who had kept loose in the bullpen, went back on the mound. For MSU's last batter, but also for the sake of Dalbec's safety, Arizona brought in a lefty to finish the shutout. The crowd had become hostile towards Dalbec's calm demeanor and methodical dominance to such an extend that the coaches decided to pull him early.

The next day, in game #2, Dalbec contributed a HR in a 2-4 outing to sweep MSU and advance Arizona to the College World Series. Subsequently, MSU fans and local media branded him "Starkville's Most Hated Man". Here's a video recap of the second game, including Dalbec knocking it out of the park.


Read more: http://forum.soxprospects.com/thread/4623/another-homer-bobby-dalbec-thread#ixzz5OGVsKm8O
 

oumbi

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An update on slugging Bobby. He has slowed down considerably over the last 10 games, going 6 for 36, which is a .167 batting average. He did not get a HR during those 10 games. He did get 2 walks, but he also struck out 14 times.

For the season in Portland (21 games and 77 AB) he is hitting .274/.349/.575 with 5 HR in 73 at bats. He has walked 5 times and struck out 30 times.

It would seem his strike out rate is still quite the work in progress.
 

oumbi

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Bobby is struggling...mightily. In the past 10 games his hitting includes 18 strikeouts in 41 at bats. He makes Moncada look like a contact hitter.

AB R H HR RBI BB SO SB AVG
41 3 7 1 6 1 18 0 .171
 

simplicio

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The Sox awarded Dalbec both offensive and defensive player of the year for their minor league system. No pressure, Devers.