BOS bullpen 2018

Plympton91

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Speaking of Smith... is there any chance in hell he winds up making it back on the 25 man this season?

Whatever happens to Smith or Thornburgh, it makes me very hesitant to want to trade for relievers. I'm very much on the Develop Relievers In Your System Boat.
Agree. It seems as if Ty Buttrey has reached the point where he could help if needed. His peripherals at Pawtucket are great.

What is the deal with Austin Maddox? He was originally just supposed to be out for a little bit, pitched a bad few innings in late May, and then disappeared again. Last update I found was a 6/6 statement from Cora that he had recurrence of shoulder inflammation. Seems like they should have more definitive diagnosis than that by now.

And Travis Laskins hasnt given up an earned run in 12.2 IP since switching to the pen. 3 H, 6 BB, 14 K. But only in AA.
 

nvalvo

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Clicking around in Thornburg's Brooks Baseball page, I'm optimistic. He looks like the same guy. Four-seam fastball 92-95 with elite — almost a foot — of vertical "rise." Okay changeup with some fade at 86. Good looking curve with decent shape to it at 77.

This is pretty similar on paper to his Milwaukee repertoire when he was very effective. Maybe his fastball was a tic firmer.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Clicking around in Thornburg's Brooks Baseball page, I'm optimistic. He looks like the same guy. Four-seam fastball 92-95 with elite — almost a foot — of vertical "rise." Okay changeup with some fade at 86. Good looking curve with decent shape to it at 77.

This is pretty similar on paper to his Milwaukee repertoire when he was very effective. Maybe his fastball was a tic firmer.
Have to remember the guy is still working his way back, too. We shouldn't collectively overreact to a tiny irrelevant sample size if he struggles his first few times out, a la Melancon.

Patience. 20-25IP at a minimum.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Rodney is on a 1 year, $4.25M deal with a team option for 2019 ($4.25M with $250K buyout). So at minimum, they'd be on the hook for a pro-rated portion of $4.5M (w/buyout). Maybe the Twins eat salary but I doubt it. Not seeing how he works out here.
 

soxhop411

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Kelly was removed from todays game due to lightheadedness according to cora
 

jon abbey

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I'm going to do my part to make this board a better place on this traumatic day for all of us by giving soxeast a week off on the grounds of repeatedly violating our primary law of 'don't suck'. Back to bullpen talk...
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Third game in a row tonight that Hembree was the inherited runner guy out of the bullpen — 7 runners in the last three appearances. I wonder if this is becoming a defined role.

Not having a lefty in the bullpen is certainly not ideal but in a way it makes the calculus easier. Cora can focus more on roles and where in the lineup things stand in the late innings without having to worry about platoon.
 

Rasputin

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Third game in a row tonight that Hembree was the inherited runner guy out of the bullpen — 7 runners in the last three appearances. I wonder if this is becoming a defined role.

Not having a lefty in the bullpen is certainly not ideal but in a way it makes the calculus easier. Cora can focus more on roles and where in the lineup things stand in the late innings without having to worry about platoon.

I think that's been his role for a while now. I noticed it a few weeks ago and have really come to expect it.

I still want that lefty though.
 

Sox Puppet

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Never saw Brasier pitch before today, but he looks pretty good. Very hard thrower with a nice Kimbrel-lite sweeping slider.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Well, yesterday (after your post, I presume) he gave a nice performance. Yes, he's been off more than on this past month but before that he was lights-out for 2 months so unless he is injured (and there's no indication that he is) there's every reason to believe that he'll re-claim his form and be lights-out again.

I'm still happy he's in the pen and that he and Barnes are setting up for Kimbrel. If Thornburg is any good it should be a strong (i.e. top 5 or 6 in MLB) pen which is all you can ask if you don't spend Yankee money on it.
It was after my post. That is 3 quality appearances in a row now though, so that's a positive (2.2 ip, 1h, 0bb/5k). I'm still not sure if he's closer to Barnes than he is Hembree, but I am extremely high on Barnes and think Hembree is underrated. I just wish Barnes had a longer track record than this year because he looks like a potential Kimbrel replacement if it comes to that. I guess it's also entirely possible Kelly is somewhere in between Barnes and Hembree too.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Joe Kelly has a 9.22 ERA since June 1, and a 10.80 ERA in July. Not sure if there's some fatigue going on with him, but I don't think we can keep putting him in high-lev situations right now.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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It may not be The equal of the MFY bullpen, or Cleveland 2016, but so far it’s been very good.

ASB as expected:
Kimbrel — awesome expected, awesome delivered. Missing spring training made no difference.

Johnson — cromulent as a long man, better than expected as an emergency starter thanks to Cora showing him a quick hook.

ASB pleasant surprises:
Barnes — still the occasional game where needless walks hurt, but has also delivered more strikeouts when he really needs them than last year. Wouldn’t say I’m zen when he comes in, but surely closer to it than I was in 2017.

Hembree — great job with runners on, can go more than an inning, always available.

Workman — throwing strikes, getting outs.t

Velazquez — overdelivered with his emergency starter effectiveness in April/May. His work as a long man of late doesn’t make me supremely confident the Sox can roll him out every 5th day in EdRo’s absence, but work to date is a plus.

Brasier — I’m excited. Much too excited.

ASB concerns:
Kelly — started out like a house afire, but July has been a tire fire. Entirely possible he just needs a week to regroup, but could be a regression.

Scott — hasn’t shown anything. I was cutting him a break when I thought he was Robbie Ross, but have figured that out now. Proof that a bad lefty is indeed worse than no lefty, but a LOOGY would be nice to limit opponents’ pinch hitting options.

Incomplete:
Thornburg — definitely too early to write him off, and his resume is sublime...but he didn’t come out of the gate great.

Cuevas, Walden, Poyner, Haley, Beeks — of these, Poyner would be my bet to throw the most effective innings this year. As the only LHP, he may need to.

ASB damn it:
Carson Smith: I’d call him a moron, but I’ve done similar dumb stuff myself. Oh yeah, but I AM a moron.

Wright: was just great while he was biding his time in the bullpen awaiting Pomeranz’s collapse...but he’s so fragile I’m not sure he can be relied upon. Would be a huge boost.
 
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AB in DC

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What does the pecking order look like now?

1. Kimbrel
2. Barnes -- now has better FIP/xFIP/fWAR than Kimbrel; on the other hand, he has the highest BB/9 rate anyone this side of Steven Wright. So I don't know what to make of him.
3. Workman -- only 16 innings but his rate stats are better than any of the regulars
4. Hembree -- Cora apparently trusts him to come into the game with runners on base. Solid numbers but nothing extraordinary.
5. Kelly -- What happened??
6. Velazquez -- Generic long reliever

Too soon to tell
Brazier
Thornburg

Fungible
Poyner
Walden
Cuevas

And last
Robby Scott -- Well, thanks for 2017, anyway.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Barnes: There's nothing more chilling than a reliever giving up walks (oh Koji, where are you when we need you...)

Still, memory of Barnes' walks seems to stick too readily in my mind.

Last 2 appearances: 2 walks / 4 hits (3 on 12 July) / 5 strikeouts

But leading up to that:

17 June - 10 July: 9 Appearances - 2 walks / 1 hit / 17 K's

9 May - 10 June: 14 Appearances - 7 walks / 11 hits / 18 K's

He drives me crazy, but he's good.

WHIP is really important for a reliever, but there should be another stat that factors WHIP with strikeouts, since keeping the ball out of play in the late innings is a huge bonus.
 

Adrian's Dome

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If there's anything we should do with relievers, it's not overreact to a 5IP sample size, especially when said reliever is coming back after nearly two seasons off. Finding mechanics is one of those things that can't necessarily be quantified or analyzed, and it may take some time and patience.

I think the arm is still there, and the Sox are in a position where they can afford to get him a few major league innings to iron things out and hopefully cash in when it really matters.
 

tims4wins

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What was the phrase Theo used in 2004 regarding the infield defense? "Fatal flaw"? Yeah that's the 2018 bullpen unless they make some moves at the deadline. Given the number of pitches that guys like Sale, Price, and EdRo throw, they are going to need the pen to give them ~3 innings even when the starts pitch well. I doubt that I am alone in saying I have very little confidence in the guys they have back there, including Barnes. Barnes would be what, 4th or 5th on the Yankees reliever depth chart? He's our #2 guy.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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What was the phrase Theo used in 2004 regarding the infield defense? "Fatal flaw"? Yeah that's the 2018 bullpen unless they make some moves at the deadline. Given the number of pitches that guys like Sale, Price, and EdRo throw, they are going to need the pen to give them ~3 innings even when the starts pitch well. I doubt that I am alone in saying I have very little confidence in the guys they have back there, including Barnes. Barnes would be what, 4th or 5th on the Yankees reliever depth chart? He's our #2 guy.
I'm confident in Barnes as a #2 guy, yes. And I'm becoming more and more confident in Brasier as the #3 guy. I'd really like to see Kelly get back to whatever he was doing right for the first 3 months of the season though. Thornburgh is coming along. As it is, right now, I'd still say our BP is one of the top in the league and I'd put it up there against almost any other team.
but without Kelly there though, yeah..., and where he's at right now, I'd say our bullpen is the weakness, just comparing it to the Yankees on paper, obviously. The Yankees pen just went from ridiculously to insanely good... on paper. I'm still not sure who is out there that the Sox can actually get though.
Maybe Britton will be their version of Gagne '07? Or he's Angelos secret weapon?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The bullpen is the fatal flaw? The bullpen that is second in the league in runs allowed (behind Houston, better than the Yankees)? The bullpen that has the fewest blown saves?

I get it, sometimes they give up runs and it's not fun to watch. Kelly has turned into a pumpkin of late. Thornburg has had a few bumps on the comeback trail. But this pen overall has been just fine. I don't think adding another reliever is going to substantially change their effectiveness...not saying they shouldn't get another reliever, just that no matter who it is, it isn't going to be dramatically impactful.
 

bosockboy

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From the right side they have a pretty solid stable of options. Taking Kelly out of it, they have—
Barnes
Hembree
Thornburg
Workman
Brasier
With Feltman possible in a month.

If Thornburg’s mechanical glitch fixed him, we are in really good shape. He’s your potential 8th inning guy with his stuff.

A left hander is a need though and something I’m sure DD will address. Our fatal flaw is much more likely to be Devers defense.
 

joe dokes

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Brasier needs to be given the JoKe role for high-leverage situations.
It's only a few games -- but it looks like Cora has slid Kelly into lower-leverage situations already. (brought in ahead 9-1 Sunday and when behind in the 6th last night.) I wouldn't expect that to change unless and until his results do.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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The bullpen is the fatal flaw? The bullpen that is second in the league in runs allowed (behind Houston, better than the Yankees)? The bullpen that has the fewest blown saves?

I get it, sometimes they give up runs and it's not fun to watch. Kelly has turned into a pumpkin of late. Thornburg has had a few bumps on the comeback trail. But this pen overall has been just fine. I don't think adding another reliever is going to substantially change their effectiveness...not saying they shouldn't get another reliever, just that no matter who it is, it isn't going to be dramatically impactful.
Adding more stats to this - each apply to team bullpens:
  1. 4.5 fWAR, 5th MLB, 3rd AL (NYY/HOU)
  2. 3.74 xFIP, 5th MLB, 3rd AL (HOU/NYY)
  3. 3.44 FIP, 4th MLB, 3rd AL (HOU/NYY)
  4. 3.39 ERA, 6th MLB, 3rd AL (NYY/HOU)
  5. 81% Save%, 1st MLB
  6. 1.17 WHIP, 4th MLB, 3rd AL (CLE/NYY)
  7. 11.35 WPA, 1st MLB (by a lot)
 

tims4wins

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Listing the rankings doesn't give justice to how far behind they are.

For instance, the bullpen WHIP is 1.23, which is 5th in the AL. Houston is at 1.04 and the MFY are at 1.08. That's a big difference. The Sox are as close to 12th in the AL as they are to 1st.

OPS against - Sox are 4th in the AL at .660. NYY is at .603 and HOU is at .619. Again, these are big differences.

ERA - yes 3.39 is 3rd in the AL. NYY is at 2.75 and HOU is at 2.92. That is nearly a half run better than the Sox.

The pen has been fine to date. I completely agree. But in a short series they don't have elite arms. The Yankees have 5 regular relievers with a WHIP of 1.02 or less. The Sox have 1. 2 if you count Workman.

Those who are counting on Thornburg becoming the 8th inning guy based on 1 inning his last time out... man, those are some Sox colored glasses IMO.

If the starters pitch great and the offense mashes it won't matter, obviously. But if they get into a few 1 or 2 run games, I have very little confidence in this bullpen in the playoffs.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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That first place in Save % isn't a real figure though, is it? It counts giving up the lead in the 6th inning as a blown save even though it's not really a Save Opportunity, except by rule.

And we know how valuable Saves are, anyway.
 

joe dokes

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That first place in Save % isn't a real figure though, is it? It counts giving up the lead in the 6th inning as a blown save even though it's not really a Save Opportunity, except by rule.

And we know how valuable Saves are, anyway.
While I agree that the blown save stat is hopelessly flawed for the reason you cite, I think we can generally say that the ranking supports what we've seen -- that the non-Kimbrels have usually done the job in keeping the team ahead from the 6th inning on.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Listing the rankings doesn't give justice to how far behind they are.

For instance, the bullpen WHIP is 1.23, which is 5th in the AL. Houston is at 1.04 and the MFY are at 1.08. That's a big difference. The Sox are as close to 12th in the AL as they are to 1st.

OPS against - Sox are 4th in the AL at .660. NYY is at .603 and HOU is at .619. Again, these are big differences.

ERA - yes 3.39 is 3rd in the AL. NYY is at 2.75 and HOU is at 2.92. That is nearly a half run better than the Sox.

The pen has been fine to date. I completely agree. But in a short series they don't have elite arms. The Yankees have 5 regular relievers with a WHIP of 1.02 or less. The Sox have 1. 2 if you count Workman.

Those who are counting on Thornburg becoming the 8th inning guy based on 1 inning his last time out... man, those are some Sox colored glasses IMO.

If the starters pitch great and the offense mashes it won't matter, obviously. But if they get into a few 1 or 2 run games, I have very little confidence in this bullpen in the playoffs.
I think the point of posting these is not to say the bullpen is great or as good as the Yankees, but to say it's a lot better than people seem to think it is. If the bullpen were better, that would be great. If DD can improve it, that would be wonderful. The good news is you don't match up bullpens and see whose is better and by how much. There's an entire game played by an entire team, and to call the bullpen we have so far a "fatal flaw" is, IMO, ridiculous.
 

tims4wins

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I think the point of posting these is not to say the bullpen is great or as good as the Yankees, but to say it's a lot better than people seem to think it is. If the bullpen were better, that would be great. If DD can improve it, that would be wonderful. The good news is you don't match up bullpens and see whose is better and by how much. There's an entire game played by an entire team, and to call the bullpen we have so far a "fatal flaw" is, IMO, ridiculous.
I don't disagree with anything you wrote. I don't mean to say the pen has been a weak link on this team. 2B and 3B have been far bigger problems (C too). But come the playoffs, it worries me the most.
 

BaseballJones

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I don't disagree with anything you wrote. I don't mean to say the pen has been a weak link on this team. 2B and 3B have been far bigger problems (C too). But come the playoffs, it worries me the most.
This is a great team. Maybe the best Red Sox team we've ever seen. But come playoff time, almost everything worries me.

- I worry that Sale and Porcello will implode.

- I worry that the bullpen will be very shaky.

- I worry that Kimbrel will blow a key save.

- I worry that opposing pitchers will find ways to get our best hitters out. And that the Sox will struggle to score.

- I worry that the Sox will make key errors that lose games.

I worry about all that and to be honest, with good reason. We've seen it happen before.
 

mostman

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It's only a few games -- but it looks like Cora has slid Kelly into lower-leverage situations already. (brought in ahead 9-1 Sunday and when behind in the 6th last night.) I wouldn't expect that to change unless and until his results do.
Was last night really low leverage? They were down 2 with a lot of game left. Right now, Kelly should be on mop duty.
 

tims4wins

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Yep. I'd add to that list, I worry that opposing teams will pitch around Mookie and especially JDM, and the other guys like X, Moreland, Benny, etc. won't be able to make them pay.
 

judyb

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Was last night really low leverage? They were down 2 with a lot of game left. Right now, Kelly should be on mop duty.
Not even, they were only down 4-3 when Kelly started the 6th. And Brasier was the one who he used up 5-0 in the 7th the game before. Time to switch those 2 until their results switch.
 

timlinin8th

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Soxprospects says he has an option left. I think it may be time to use it.
Kelly has more than 5 years of service time and would have to consent to being sent down. Considering he is just shy of six years of service time (along with the salary disparity) I doubt he would just agree to being sent to the minors.
 

joe dokes

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Not even, they were only down 4-3 when Kelly started the 6th. And Brasier was the one who he used up 5-0 in the 7th the game before. Time to switch those 2 until their results switch.
I suspect Kelly's 25-pitch struggle on Sunday probably factored into Cora's not using him with a lead on Monday.
But given that, last night was more leverage than Kelly deserves. (And I also think low-K more than a hit per inning Velazquez was the wrong guy to replace him, but that's another story).

It's always hard to get into people's heads, but Cora gave both Kelly and Pomeranz (within the context of his one game, anyway) plenty of rope. I'd guess that makes it easier for them to deal with being cast aside and working on whatever they need to un-suck. Pro athletes are notoriously stubborn.

(Yeah, I know, back in the old days, the manager would go to Kenmore Square and burn the shitty pitcher in effigy, invite fans to roast marshmallows, and shame then into un-sucking.)
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Kelly's ERA steadily dropped from opening day to under 2.00 in late May, and has steadily climbed ever since to its current 4.79. He's been off his game for two months now. Soxprospects says he has an option left. I think it may be time to use it.
I think it's really only the last four games that have been the problem. He hasn't been dominant for the last couple of months like he was early but he's still been pitching relatively effectively and getting inherited runners out. Until this recent four-game stretch, he was doing well enough despite regression in his ERA. In the two-month period he converted 10 of 11 hold opportunities.

That said he has been absolutely terrible in his last four games. He failed to complete his inning three of four times and it has taken him 83 pitches to get 7 outs over this stretch with runners all over the bases. (In his prior 41 games, he failed to complete his expected inning just twice, and maybe two more times though you'd need to be in Cora's head to know for sure.)

So, what's my point anyway? I would agree there has been a long progression of his journey from being dominant. But I never expected him to be dominant. He has still been effective most of the year, and this period of non-effectiveness has been relatively recent. I think taking him out of leverage situations for a few appearances and seeing how he does is the proper course.
 

chrisfont9

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I think it's really only the last four games that have been the problem. He hasn't been dominant for the last couple of months like he was early but he's still been pitching relatively effectively and getting inherited runners out. Until this recent four-game stretch, he was doing well enough despite regression in his ERA. In the two-month period he converted 10 of 11 hold opportunities.

That said he has been absolutely terrible in his last four games. He failed to complete his inning three of four times and it has taken him 83 pitches to get 7 outs over this stretch with runners all over the bases. (In his prior 41 games, he failed to complete his expected inning just twice, and maybe two more times though you'd need to be in Cora's head to know for sure.)

So, what's my point anyway? I would agree there has been a long progression of his journey from being dominant. But I never expected him to be dominant. He has still been effective most of the year, and this period of non-effectiveness has been relatively recent. I think taking him out of leverage situations for a few appearances and seeing how he does is the proper course.
Well he's lacked an out pitch for a while. I don't get to watch every day, but he seemed unable to get swings and misses whenever I've seen him in the last month or thereabouts. IMHO the numbers support the idea that he was doing something very well for two months and less well since, i.e. something that would or wouldn't allow him either a bit more pop or control. Maybe he's tired. Whatever it is, they should be (and almost certainly are) looking to reset him back to his May form. Fingers crossed.
 

phenweigh

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That first place in Save % isn't a real figure though, is it? It counts giving up the lead in the 6th inning as a blown save even though it's not really a Save Opportunity, except by rule.

And we know how valuable Saves are, anyway.
Completely agree that Save % is bogus as an individual stat, but as a team stat it seems useful. Those 6th inning blown saves means the pen is giving up leads and may speak to quality depth or lack thereof.
 

phenweigh

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So ... when Eovaldi is added to the roster, somebody from the pen goes to RI. I'm not sure who it will be, or even who I would pick.
 

tims4wins

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Barnes OPS against by game score:
> 4 run margin: .000
4 run margin: .536
3 run margin: .611
2 run margin: .673
1 run margin: .706

The closer the game, the worse he is. This is our setup man.

I know I am a broken record, but I would be shocked if this bullpen succeeds in the playoffs.