BOS bullpen 2018

DeadlySplitter

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never want to overreact to one game, but Matt Barnes continued to slump today. Really ugly and we need him to at least be decent a month from now.

Hembree shouldn't be in the 8th inning of a tie game but I guess Brasier was sick or something, so I'll give that a pass.

Kimbrel threw some great pitches on the black but hitters just know not to swing at the curve more often. and he couldn't spot the fastball well enough to get a .350 OPS hitter out. You have a lot of work to do Dana!

By the way, you been following the dominant Yankee bullpen? Everyone has question marks. The Sox have a lot of options, more after Sept 1, and more than a month to figure it out.
There is time. But the Yankees guys at least throw strikes more consistently. Betances has been Koji-like lately.
 

BornToRun

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never want to overreact to one game, but Matt Barnes continued to slump today. Really ugly and we need him to at least be decent a month from now.

Hembree shouldn't be in the 8th inning of a tie game but I guess Brasier was sick or something, so I'll give that a pass.

Kimbrel threw some great pitches on the black but hitters just know not to swing at the curve more often. and he couldn't spot the fastball well enough to get a .350 OPS hitter out. You have a lot of work to do Dana!

There is time. But the Yankees guys at least throw strikes more consistently. Betances has been Koji-like lately.
Well this is just blasphemous.

The bullpen is definitely a concern going forward but I don’t think it’s completely hopeless. Brasier has been a hell of a find, Kelly has pitched better recently, Barnes is slumping but up until recently was one of the best relievers in the game this year, and Kimbrel has a tendency to give us all a heart attack but manages to hold the lead the vast majority of the time. Not to mention sliding Evo to the pen come October and I think we’ll be okay. We don’t have a lights out pen currently but I also don’t think it’s the complete tire fire that we saw tonight. But I’m always the optimist so what the hell do I know?
 

DeadlySplitter

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there's time for it to all go right but it won't likely be a strength into the playoffs.

the 40-man roster maybe will help with the gassed issue but that doesn't really explain way #46
 
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soxin6

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The bullpen is gassed, but that isn't the problem with Kimbrel. Kimbrel has never been a great strike thrower, but teams seem more willing to stand there until he puts the ball in the middle of the zone. Kimbrel has to improve his control or the team is going to struggle in the playoffs.
 

Clears Cleaver

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Love to see the outs recorded by pitcher if the Sox somehow win four games against NYY, Hou and/or Cleveland. I mean, who can you actually count on to credibly and successfully get 108 outs against those teams. I highly doubt you’ll get more than five innings from Sale in any start. Six from price. Six from porcello?

Sale 2 x 5 = 30 outs
Price 1 x 6 = 18 outs
Porcello 1 x 6+ = 20 outs

Need 40 more outs in those four wins.
EdRod 4 = 12
Eovaldi 3 = 9
Kimbrel 3 = 9

Still would need 3 plus innings from brasier? Wright?

Basically this staff is so limited that you almost have to give away games if you fall behind because there’s 6-7 guys you trust and two of them are currently hurt.

It’s a disaster. Cora is going to burn through the Barnes/hembree/Kelly et al and save the others in games they are ahead or can win. Since we have no idea how eovaldi or EdRod would react out of pen or what their usage limitations might be, it might be pure luck on timing that they can even get to that formula of outs in four wins.

Disaster. Maybe Wright could find magic?
 

JimD

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Love to see the outs recorded by pitcher if the Sox somehow win four games against NYY, Hou and/or Cleveland. I mean, who can you actually count on to credibly and successfully get 108 outs against those teams. I highly doubt you’ll get more than five innings from Sale in any start.
Disagree - I think the overabundance of caution the team has shown in sitting Sale this month is being done so that he can pitch without reservations in October. I think we either get bonafide ace Chris Sale or no Sale at all.
 

Average Reds

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They are very clearly gassed. I think it's as simple as needing Septemeber to get here.
This may be overly simplistic, but there's a lot of truth there. September should significantly ease the strain on the pen. Now all we need to do is fix Kimbrel's control ...

It's inevitable that the club would go through a bad stretch at some point this year. I'm glad it's now and not closer to the end of the season.
 

joe dokes

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This may be overly simplistic, but there's a lot of truth there. September should significantly ease the strain on the pen. Now all we need to do is fix Kimbrel's control ...

It's inevitable that the club would go through a bad stretch at some point this year. I'm glad it's now and not closer to the end of the season.
That's where I am. Other than Kimbrel's control (yeah, I know) I think this is part of the normal ups and downs. Workman and Kelly were fine last night. Hembree was meh and Barnes and Kimbrel were pretty bad. If Brasier had been available, he'd have come in.

Related impact of the starters' shortcomings/strain on the pen is that when they need 5+ innings instead of 3 out of the pen, it means everyone has to pitch regardless of where the are slump-wise. Kelly was moved out of the high-leverage spots to work things out. They don't really have that luxury right now. Hopefully, some combination of ERod starting, Brasier's health, and Wright and Velazquez in the bullpen will help that.

Every team has issues that can be identified as its "fatal flaw."
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Related impact of the starters' shortcomings/strain on the pen is that when they need 5+ innings instead of 3 out of the pen, it means everyone has to pitch regardless of where the are slump-wise. Kelly was moved out of the high-leverage spots to work things out. They don't really have that luxury right now. Hopefully, some combination of ERod starting, Brasier's health, and Wright and Velazquez in the bullpen will help that
Yeah, look at what they are contending with — Johnson is about a 4-5 inning guy since pressed into starter service and Velazquez’s three spot starts in August were 2.2, 2.2 and 4.0 innings. That’s just a ton of innings for the bullpen every five days and the problem is magnified by the fact that with Velazquez having to start you have exclusively one inning guys in the bullpen except Pom occassionally.
 

trekfan55

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For a team that has operated with a three man bench as much as a four man bench this season, why are we assuming a five man bench for the post-season?
Wedll, since the playoff rotation is 4 guys instead of 5, that gives them an extra bullpen spot and then an extra spot on the bench. The Sox have been known to carry either a 3rd catcher or a "designated runner" type in those spots. I fully expect all 3 of Swihart, Leon and Vazquez to make the post season roster, especially with Swihart's versatility.
 

NDame616

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That's where I am. Other than Kimbrel's control (yeah, I know) I think this is part of the normal ups and downs. Workman and Kelly were fine last night. Hembree was meh and Barnes and Kimbrel were pretty bad. If Brasier had been available, he'd have come in.

Related impact of the starters' shortcomings/strain on the pen is that when they need 5+ innings instead of 3 out of the pen, it means everyone has to pitch regardless of where the are slump-wise. Kelly was moved out of the high-leverage spots to work things out. They don't really have that luxury right now. Hopefully, some combination of ERod starting, Brasier's health, and Wright and Velazquez in the bullpen will help that.

Every team has issues that can be identified as its "fatal flaw."
I'm not sure how much ERod, who hasn't finished the 6th inning in 11 of 19 games and never completed the 7th this year, will help the pen. He's averaging 5.48 IP/start
 

joe dokes

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I'm not sure how much ERod, who hasn't finished the 6th inning in 11 of 19 games and never completed the 7th this year, will help the pen. He's averaging 5.48 IP/start
Getting his average of 1-2 outs in the 6th is getting at least 4 or 5 more outs than they have been getting from the pitchers taking his place. That will absolutely help the pen. Its a low bar, to be sure.
 

BaseballJones

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Kimbrel's control issues...

During his career in the NL:
- Strike %: 64.9%
- 1st pitch Strike %: 58.8%
- Pitches/PA: 4.18
- Contact rate: 62.7%

During his career with the Sox:
- Strike %: 64.2%
- 1st pitch Strike %: 62.6%
- Pitches/PA: 4.41
- Contact rate: 60.4%

2018
- Strike %: 62.5%
- 1st pitch Strike %: 56.4%
- Pitches/PA: 4.52
- Contact rate: 59.8%

What to make of this data? His strike percentage this year is down, as is his first pitch strike percentage. So he's getting down in the count more often than his career norms. That doesn't seem to be on purpose, so we can surmise that there's a control issue there. It would seem as well that it's not just about control vis-a-vis the strike zone, but it's control *within* the strike zone. The pitch is supposed to be on the inside corner, but instead it's inner half. That miss of 4 inches is enough of a difference between a broken bat and a rocket. By the way, he's seen a higher percentage of 3-0 counts this year than at any time in his career since his rookie season.

Interestingly, his contact rate is better than it's ever been. He's only had two seasons with a better contact rate than 2018. Meaning when they swing, they're not making contact as often as they have in the past. Last year his whip was 0.68, while this year it's 1.04. And I'll credit that almost all to control. Walking more guys, but also missing in the zone, leading to better contact when it's made. His line drive rate is at 32%, compared to 22% last year.
 

The Gray Eagle

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I'm not sure how much ERod, who hasn't finished the 6th inning in 11 of 19 games and never completed the 7th this year, will help the pen. He's averaging 5.48 IP/start
But if Eduardo is starting, then either Velazquez or Johnson is in the bullpen, able to throw multiple innings if needed. That should lighten the load on everyone else.
 

TheoShmeo

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Given how poorly a lot of the pen has performed lastly, and how gassed they seem, and Cora’s experience with Houston last year, it seems likely that the Sox will use some of their starters as relievers in October. This is not novel and has been discussed upthread.

My question is how do people think guys like Wright, Evoldi and ERod might do in that role? Same with Johnson and Velazquez? Am I missing anyone? Pomeranz?

If you’re optimistic, what do you base that on?
 

joe dokes

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Given how poorly a lot of the pen has performed lastly, and how gassed they seem, and Cora’s experience with Houston last year, it seems likely that the Sox will use some of their starters as relievers in October. This is not novel and has been discussed upthread.

My question is how do people think guys like Wright, Evoldi and ERod might do in that role? Same with Johnson and Velazquez? Am I missing anyone? Pomeranz?

If you’re optimistic, what do you base that on?
Johnson and ERod have shown themselves capable of pitching 4 good innings in a major league game. As did Wright until he went down.
 

TheoShmeo

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Right but is there a difference between doing that as a starter and a reliever? Are outs in the later innings different?

To be clear, I have no bias here. My questions are just that, questions.
 

RedOctober3829

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Given how poorly a lot of the pen has performed lastly, and how gassed they seem, and Cora’s experience with Houston last year, it seems likely that the Sox will use some of their starters as relievers in October. This is not novel and has been discussed upthread.

My question is how do people think guys like Wright, Evoldi and ERod might do in that role? Same with Johnson and Velazquez? Am I missing anyone? Pomeranz?

If you’re optimistic, what do you base that on?
I would not trust Wright in the pen as any knuckleballer's control is a question mark from inning to inning and sometimes even batter to batter. Eovaldi's power stuff should play up even more in the pen but his HR/9 of 1.31 this season is an issue in a close game. ERod has pitched exactly 1 inning in relief in his big league career. Theoretically, adding a quality arm to the bullpen should improve the area in the postseason but it's easier said than done.
 

Coachster

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Just a personal opinion, but my belief is that a big pen issue is that we're keeping Pomerantz on the major league roster instead of a true reliever. Another fungible guy who might be able to pitch an inning two nights in a row (Bobby Poyner, come on down!) might provide an additional night of rest for the beleaguered like of Kelly, Barnes and Hembree. What is Pom's purpose? He can't get lefties out much better than righties ( against lefties .261/ .346/ .326; against righties .289/ .391/ .536) and he apparently can't pitch consecutive nights (not that we'd want him to......) Our pen as it is currently arranged is actually one guy short.
 

joe dokes

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Right but is there a difference between doing that as a starter and a reliever? Are outs in the later innings different?

To be clear, I have no bias here. My questions are just that, questions.
You asked what optimism was based on. I suspect that neither ERod nor Johnson will come into games in the middle of innings. But if used in relief, they are likely to be used to pitch multiple innings and not escape jams. I think they can do that. I suppose they might shit their pants. Its also possible that between now and the first week of october the manager will have what he thinks is a handle on these issues.
 

Van Everyman

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I feel like it's important to remember that these are the dog days in almost every way. Late August, 2 of 5 starters on the DL (3 if you include Wright), 2 long guys in the pen filling their spots. I also think Cora and DD have managed this about as well as possible -- long stretches where certain guys don't pitch, no "must win games" where they deviate from the plan. Sale and EdRo (and maybe Wright) coming back will be just what the doctor ordered -- and probably better than any bullpen pieces they could've picked up given the cost.

The talent is there.
 

uncannymanny

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Interestingly, his contact rate is better than it's ever been. He's only had two seasons with a better contact rate than 2018. Meaning when they swing, they're not making contact as often as they have in the past. Last year his whip was 0.68, while this year it's 1.04. And I'll credit that almost all to control. Walking more guys, but also missing in the zone, leading to better contact when it's made. His line drive rate is at 32%, compared to 22% last year.
XBH% is way up, to 8.1% vs ~5% for the prior 3 years. % of hits against him that are extra bases are way, way up to 57% (!) from the mid 30s. IMO, mostly poor quality pitches getting hit hard.
 

joe dokes

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I feel like it's important to remember that these are the dog days in almost every way. Late August, 2 of 5 starters on the DL (3 if you include Wright), 2 long guys in the pen filling their spots. I also think Cora and DD have managed this about as well as possible -- long stretches where certain guys don't pitch, no "must win games" where they deviate from the plan. Sale and EdRo (and maybe Wright) coming back will be just what the doctor ordered -- and probably better than any bullpen pieces they could've picked up given the cost.

The talent is there.
This all gets overlooked in the moment-to-moment pants-wetting.
 

chawson

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Jerry Blevins just cleared waivers. Odd reverse splits there but he’s been effective v. RHH and the changeup is real.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I know it's just the White Sox (although they have been playing pretty well lately in a preview of how good of team they will likely be in '19)... but the bullpen's performance last night was gorgeous and hopefully what we'll be seeing from here on out:

Brasier: 1.1 IP, 0 BB, 3 K's, 0 runs (comes in to get the last out at a critical moment of the game)
Barnes: 1.0 IP, 0 BB, 2 K's, 0 runs (need more of this from him)
Kelly: 1.0 IP, 0 BB, 1 K, 0 runs (the 0 BB's are also what we need from him)

Playoff bullpens can function with 3 very good arms and 1 dominant arm. When these 3 put up lines like this, and if Kimbrel can get his shit back together, it's a World Series caliber bullpen.

Obviously these 4 will be on the playoff roster. After them I'm still not sure who else.... Eovaldi, Pomeranz or Wright for the long relief (probably only one of them). I suspect Johnson will be on the roster just because he's a lefty (and yes, I know there's no real dominant lefty bats). So that's 6 spots...... I'm guessing there'll be 7 bullpen arms....
 

bosockboy

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This evolves weekly, and is somewhat matchup dependent, but I’d say this is the current state of the playoff bullpen:

Kimbrel
Barnes
Kelly
Brasier
Eovaldi
Pomeranz

One of:
Hembree
Johnson
Wright

Done:
Workman
Thornburg
Velasquez
 

uk_sox_fan

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Pom has been pretty effective in 7 of his 8 relief appearances (the exception being 8/15 @Phi when he turned a 4-3 deficit into a 7-3 one off of a walk, 3 singles and a double in 1IP). Other than that he's given up 6 walks, 7 singles, 2 doubles and a HR in 14 1/3 IP over 7 appearances. 7 of those 10 hits were in his last appearance where he clearly benefitted from some fortunate outs on the basepaths but nevertheless kept the ChiSox scoreless over 4 innings.

Bottom line is I think he's a useful and usable lefty for the pen and if Wright comes back strong I could see the latter being the long man and Pom giving options from the left side.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Y'all understand when you say that so and so seems to have figured something out after a week or so of good performances that it doesn't really mean that so and so has figured anything out, right?

I assume those posts are just wish casting.
 

joe dokes

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Wrights looked good ( as he pretty much always has when healthy). Cora said more than once early in the the year how much he liked Wright in relief. Now he wasted no time trying to find out if wright can take back to backs. And it seems that any of the 3 can catch him too. I think he's going to get every chance to pitch himself onto a playoff roster.
 

BaseballJones

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This evolves weekly, and is somewhat matchup dependent, but I’d say this is the current state of the playoff bullpen:

Kimbrel
Barnes
Kelly
Brasier
Eovaldi
Pomeranz

One of:
Hembree
Johnson
Wright

Done:
Workman
Thornburg
Velasquez
Workman in the "done" category? His season numbers are fantastic (2.41 era, 1.10 whip, 8.0 k/9) and in his last 12 games he's put up a 1.38 era.

Sale, Price, Porcello, and ERod would be the likely starters. So here are the bullpen candidates' season stats:

Kimbrel: 2.50 era, 1.04 whip, 13.7 k/9
Barnes: 3.39 era, 1.20 whip, 14.2 k/9
Kelly: 3.75 era, 1.23 whip, 9.0 k/9
Velazquez: 3.24 era, 1.48 whip, 5.7 k/9
Hembree: 3.93 era, 1.38 whip, 11.8 k/9
Workman: 2.41 era, 1.10 whip, 8.0 k/9
Wright: 3.21 era, 1.26 whip, 6.9 k/9
Brasier: 1.44 era, 0.88 whip, 8.3 k/9
Thornburg: 5.31 era, 1.48 whip, 8.4 k/9
Eovaldi: 4.10 era, 1.47 whip, 6.0 k/9
Johnson: 4.36 era, 1.44 whip, 8.1 k/9
Pomeranz: 5.54 era, 1.71 whip, 7.6 k/9 (but 2.93 era, 1.37 whip, 7.0 k/9 as a reliever)

Locks (barring injury): Kimbrel, Barnes, Kelly, Brasier
Out of the mix: Thornburg,
Possibilities: Pomeranz, Hembree, Workman, Wright, Eovaldi
Possibilities if they want a long man: Velazquez, Johnson

No idea how many relievers they'll take for the first round. I'd think 11 or 12 at most. I'd go with 11 since it's a best of 5 series, but I'm not Cora.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Y'all understand when you say that so and so seems to have figured something out after a week or so of good performances that it doesn't really mean that so and so has figured anything out, right?

I assume those posts are just wish casting.
Shut up, you. Of course, 1 bad game doesn't mean he hasn't! I'm not optimistic.
 

Cesar Crespo

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On another note, I am starting to get really excited by Ryan Brasier. The sample size is still small but he's now at 24 games, 25ip with a 1.44 era and .880 WHIP with 23k/6bb. He's arguably been our best reliever for close to 2 months and gives the bullpen a power arm that won't walk the ballpark, which has been lacking all year. Workman and Velezquez have been adequate but they just don't have the same quality stuff as Brasier. Kelly, Barnes, Hembree and Kimbrel are all walking machines.


I'd like to see more of Bobby Poyner too. Interesting minor league track record.
 
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Plympton91

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I agree with those talking up Brazier, and would also trust Workman more than Kelly at this point, and would like to see a lot more of Poyner and Wright than Kelly in the next 3 weeks.
 

sean1562

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Yea I just don’t trust Kelly at all at this point. He has stretches of dominance but overall just really mediocre. I am ready to move on at this point and hope we don’t sign him in the offseason
 

mfried

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Based on how Cora has been using him, I think Hembree has to be considered a lock at this point.
Sadly, because I’m a Kelly fan, I would rank him below Hembree. Nerves, control - little things like that...
 

Cesar Crespo

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Not huge on Kelly but he had been good the prior 19 games: 18.2ip, 16h, 19k/6bb, 1.45 era.

When it comes to the bullpen and the playoffs, I doubt much of it is set in stone outside of Kimbrel and Barnes. It will matter how they finish the year.
 

soxhop411

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Cora said Kimbrel would have gone out for a second inning had we not walked it off.
 

gedman211

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Steven Wright is about to go on a High-Leverage playoff rampage that would give Mike Timlin goose-pimples
 

Kevin Youkulele

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Here are IP by the starting pitcher, going back in time from yesterday to the first game of the Rays series:
5.2, 3.1, 6.1, 4.0, 5.0, 3.1, 1.1, 5.2, 2.0, 5.0, 3.0, 4.1, 4.0, 5.0, 2.2.

15 games, exactly one time where the starter made it through the 6th, and only six where the starter completed the 5th. Of those six times, four were Porcello, one was Price, and one was EdRo.

I doubt there has ever been a bullpen that looked good when it had to cover this many innings. It's natural to complain about the bullpen because a reliever has been on the mound when many of the bad things have happened, but the reason why the relievers are overexposed is that the starting pitchers haven't been able to get enough outs.

At least in the playoffs, pitchers like Eovaldi, Johnson, and Velazquez, who started during the last 15 games but collectively failed to go 5 every single time, shouldn't be starting anymore.

If starters are getting pulled in the fifth or earlier in the majority of playoff games, there won't be very many playoff games. I'm not even confident if the bullpen needs to cover 4 innings per game during October, but that's more on the starters than on the bullpen.
 

chrisfont9

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When the Sox got Eovaldi they envisioned him in the pen in the playoffs. Haven't heard much since then. Obviously he's not a top-four starter, but if he has something to offer in relief, I wonder when the Sox are going to transition him to that? I guess he's pitched out of the pen enough so that it would only take a couple appearances and he'd be comfortable there again? Or maybe none, just have him stay stretched out and move him for the ALDS? That sounds a bit risky to me.