BOS bullpen 2018

[Adrian's Dome]

Not willing at this point to bump anyone on the staff for Wright. Knucklers are too volatile and he's off injury. Sucks for him, but it is what it is.

Bad enough that Velazquez is going to have to go down for Thornburg, there's no reason to jettison a useful pitcher like Johnson or Hembree in order to activate a knuckleballer that you're unsure of.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Wright isn't back this weekend even if he's physically ready. He's got a suspension to serve still.

As for Thornburg, when he's ready, it's Velazquez that goes down unless someone else comes down with something DL worthy. Velazquez is their 6th best starter. He needs to be in Pawtucket where he can, you know, start and stay stretched out.

 

[Rasputin]

I wouldn't be surprised if Wright never pitches in Boston or the majors again.
I also don't see any danger in DFAing Johnson, I'm pretty sure he'd make it through and end up in Pawtucket.
That said they may still send Velazquez down first just to get some steady work.

I don't think there's a chance in hell Johnson makes it through. He's young, controlled, left-handed, and has a little bit of upside.

If I'm the Orioles or Reds I claim him pretty quick, stick him in the rotation, and maybe he turns into something that's either useful to the team that claims him or in trade.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

Wright isn't back this weekend even if he's physically ready. He's got a suspension to serve still.

He already did his rehab, he is serving his suspension now and it ends Sunday.

 

[rhswanzey]

If Wright and Thornburg are back next weekend, what are the moves?

Kimbrel no
Smith no
Barnes no
Kelly no
Hembree out of options
Johnson out of options
Velazquez

They'll DL Price, call up one of the many arms with options on the 40 man, and cycle fresh arms as needed until turning that spot over to Thornburg. Wright isn't close. Funny how quickly baseball can solve roster jams...

 

[trekfan55]

I dont think that will be a problem for this weekend

Thornburg isn't coming back until he both pitches back to back and comes into games with runners on base. All 3 of his appearances so far have been with 2 days off and clean innings. I think he's supposed to pitch tonight for Portland, so that's with one day off. Getting closer.

Wright's been blasted twice. He's nowhere near Boston.

Wright was taken off the DL and is on the restricted list serving his suspension.

So when he is done with that they cannot send him to the minors. Can they claim he reinjured himself when he was not playing?

 

[pinkunicornsox]

Wright was taken off the DL and is on the restricted list serving his suspension.

So when he is done with that they cannot send him to the minors. Can they claim he reinjured himself when he was not playing?

Sure but why would Wright agree to that?

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

Not sure where else to put this so thought I’d throw it here as to relates to the pen last night. Looking at the box score I see Barnes has a Hold and the Loss. How on earth can he get a “Hold” when the tying and go ahead runs were his responsibility? Kimbrel may have given up the hits that scored the runs but he put the guys on base that scored, which of course give him the Loss. Not sure how he can have both a Hold and a Loss in that situation. I understand both Barnes and Kimbrel can’t get blown saves. It seems to me it’s more accurate that Barnes just have an L next his name because he didn’t hold anything.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

How on earth can he get a “Hold” when the tying and go ahead runs were his responsibility?

Because a "Hold" is a stupid statistic.

 

[soxhop411]

Cora says Wright is a reliever

 

[Harry Hooper]

Cora says Wright is a reliever

Fine with me. I've always liked the idea of a knuckleballer coming in mid-game and getting through 2-3 innings before the batters can adjust.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Maybe move Price to the pen and give Wright his slot in the rotation. Price is too unreliable as a Starter now as you never know when the CT flairs up and renders him unavilable or require him to be removed in the 1st inning and burn the pen. You can live with that uncertainty out of the pen.

Its also possible that the workload as a SPer could worsen his CT relative to his BP workload although I am not sure about that

Wright also has had more success against the Yankees ,at least before the shoulder and knee injury. Its not a given he returns to that pre-injury form though. But give it a shot.

A healthy Price should be in the rotation but that CT is likely a chronic issue w/o surgery and perhaps explains his not very impressive performance since we first learned about his numbness

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Price is not going to the bullpen. It's just not happening. Certainly not to make room in the rotation for Steven Wright. Carpal tunnel, once diagnosed, is treatable without surgery. It's one of those things that when you know you have it, you can manage it and avoid the activities/actions that inflame it.

If he has a flare up that necessitates leaving a game early...that's what Wright is in the pen for, no?

 

[Byrdbrain]

Maybe move Price to the pen and give Wright his slot in the rotation. Price is too unreliable as a Starter now as you never know when the CT flairs up and renders him unavilable or require him to be removed in the 1st inning and burn the pen. You can live with that uncertainty out of the pen.

Its also possible that the workload as a SPer could worsen his CT relative to his BP workload although I am not sure about that

Wright also has had more success against the Yankees ,at least before the shoulder and knee injury. Its not a given he returns to that pre-injury form though. But give it a shot.

A healthy Price should be in the rotation but that CT is likely a chronic issue w/o surgery and perhaps explains his not very impressive performance since we first learned about his numbness

Price is unreliable but the guy who has hardly pitched since 2016 and has sucked when he has is reliable? It has also been shown repeatedly that Wright was bad before the infamous pinch running injury.
I have no idea how anyone can think that Wright belongs in the rotation, ideally he'd be in the minors showing he can at least get AAA hitters out but unfortunately he has to be activated.

 

[RedOctober3829]

As I've been saying since the start of the season, the FO's inability to replace Addison Reed is a fatal flaw. In a division so hotly contested, they can't wait any longer to address this.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

As I've been saying since the start of the season, the FO's inability to replace Addison Reed is a fatal flaw. In a division so hotly contested, they can't wait any longer to address this.

They may have more knowledge and confidence in Thornburg's recovery than you.

 

[RedOctober3829]

They may have more knowledge and confidence in Thornburg's recovery than you.

If all the eggs are in a basket coming back from TOS, then it's a shaky basket.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

If all the eggs are in a basket coming back from TOS, then it's a shaky basket.

Maybe, but Carson Smith has been getting better and better too. His stuff looks good and he's been throwing more strikes. The issue right now is Cora continuing to use Hembree.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

As I've been saying since the start of the season, the FO's inability to replace Addison Reed is a fatal flaw. In a division so hotly contested, they can't wait any longer to address this.

Addison Reed isn't that great, certainly not enough to pine over at a decent chunk of salary. Thornburg and Smith are both as talented, if not more so, than he is. Kelly has the potential as well.

Hembree is an issue right now, as he's only effective as a situational ROOGY.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Addison Reed is not that great. Thornburg and Smith are both as talented, if not more so, than he is. Kelly has the potential as well.

Hembree is an issue right now, as he's only effective as a situational ROOGY.

Carson Smith has shown he's been really good in one year and that was 3 years ago. He has allowed 18 baserunners(6 of them walks) in 11.1 IP. Thornburg hasn't pitched in over a year and is coming back from a very tough medical condition. To clarify, I wasn't necessarily saying Reed himself but the failure to add a top-flight middle reliever like Reed was a mistake by the FO.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Carson Smith has shown he's been really good in one year and that was 3 years ago. He has allowed 18 baserunners(6 of them walks) in 11.1 IP. Thornburg hasn't pitched in over a year and is coming back from a very tough medical condition. To clarify, I wasn't necessarily saying Reed himself but the failure to add a top-flight middle reliever like Reed was a mistake by the FO.

Smith hasn't walked a batter in his last 8 outings. His stuff is looking great and he's starting to throw more strikes.

 

[benhogan]

Addison Reed isn't that great, certainly not enough to pine over at a decent chunk of salary. Thornburg and Smith are both as talented, if not more so, than he is. Kelly has the potential as well.

Hembree is an issue right now, as he's only effective as a situational ROOGY.

it's really amazing that Hembree 5yrs later is still on this roster as a ROOGY and JoKe is dangling potential

 

[bosockboy]

Smith hasn't walked a batter in his last 8 outings. His stuff is looking great and he's starting to throw more strikes.

Yes Smith is really progressing. I think he’s the 8th inning guy really soon.

 

[MikeM]

If all the eggs are in a basket coming back from TOS, then it's a shaky basket.

I don't see it being an eggs in the basket situation as much as it is sticking to an initial "figure out what you have first" plan.

The Sox have already spent past a point where they are realistically going to do any serious budget crunching on the year going forward, and it's not like the trading price tag on relievers is all that restrictive lately. Thornburg will get his shot, and if he's not the answer then a Reed'like trade is probably even more of a given at this point then it was last year imo.

 

[grimshaw]

Hembree isn't getting it done obviously, but he is their 4th set up guy. Not many teams go that deep.

I mentioned before that I'd rather see him go when Thornburg is ready since they have all sorts of guys who could approach or exceed his "effectiveness." They have Workman, Poyner, Walden, Robbie Scott and Maddox if he ever gets healthy.

They also have Jerez and Buttrey who haven't had auditions yet either. Just about everyone who was shuttled last year was perfectly fine.

I also haven't given up on Wright. The knuckleball is a mysterious and at times intoxicating creature.

My guess is they'll still hoard all their guys, but I'm not seeing a reason for them to bend over backwards to keep him anymore since they are deep in fringe guys.

 

[In my lifetime]

Also the idea of adding a player with the RS currently sitting at 38MM over the luxury threshold is just not going to happen without also shedding some salary via a trade. If the RS take on an additional 2 million in salary, they will be 40MM over the threshold the tax and the tax increases from the current level of 32% (for 1st yr. 20-40MM over the LT threshold) to 62.5% and their 1st rd pick gets moved back 10 spots.

Thus it is easy to see why the RS are not interested in adding a significant piece that will cost 2 million in salary.

 

[dhappy42]

I don’t understand how anyone can be down on the Red Sox bullpen. It’s the 2nd or 3rd best in the AL. And the two arguably better bullpens — Houston and NY — have blown more saves.

 

[MikeM]

Also the idea of adding a player with the RS currently sitting at 38MM over the luxury threshold is just not going to happen without also shedding some salary via a trade. If the RS take on an additional 2 million in salary, they will be 40MM over the threshold the tax and the tax increases from the current level of 32% (for 1st yr. 20-40MM over the LT threshold) to 62.5% and their 1st rd pick gets moved back 10 spots.

Thus it is easy to see why the RS are not interested in adding a significant piece that will cost 2 million in salary.

Of course this only holds true if DD is actually that concerned with avoiding that 2nd tier cap in the short term. Which at every potential opportunity to trim towards that goal since this past off-season begin, both small and large, hasn't appeared to be the case. Plus we also have to keep in mind that the COTS figure is an estimate, and one that usually seems to be lowballed every year once those end of the year totals come into better focus. For all we know the Sox's own internal estimate including benefits and the like might already have us going over.

There is good probability that this could play out to be the best championship window DD is going to see as GM of the Red Sox. An extra tax rate penalty and 10 spots down from a projected position at very tail end of the 1st round might just not be trumping out there (I mean all principle concern aside, what actually is the hit rate difference in the draft at that point anyway? Is it enough to seriously consider not upgrading this team down the line if needed? Just not seeing it outside a surface concern pov).

 

[In my lifetime]

Forget DD, it is not his money; do you think John Henry is okay with a 62% tax? The RS have never approached that level of tax nor this level of payroll previously. I would be shocked if they exceed the 40 million dollar LT number by the year end.

 

[AB in DC]

And that's not even counting the $10 million player sitting in Pawtucket.

There's absolutely no reason for any Sox fans to expect John Henry to go over the high luxury tax threshold. He has given this team far more resources than we had any right to expect when he first bought the franchise. The Sox are regularly among the three or four highest payrolls in baseball, and that's without a ginormous media market like New York or Los Angeles.

Everything we've seen this year is consistent with an owner willing to spend up to the threshold but no higher. That really shouldn't be up for debate. Let's just count our blessings that he's even willing to go that high.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Yes Smith is really progressing. I think he’s the 8th inning guy really soon.

Smith is the most promising guy out there right now for the 8th. It looks like he has shaken off the rust and control issues from his first few outings. We'll see what Thornburg can bring to the table. He's K'd 5 guys in 2.2 innings in Pawtucket so far on his rehab stint, so I suppose that is a good sign. But we probably shouldn't expect 2016 Thornburg out of the gate.

 

[uncannymanny]

Not sure where else to put this so thought I’d throw it here as to relates to the pen last night. Looking at the box score I see Barnes has a Hold and the Loss. How on earth can he get a “Hold” when the tying and go ahead runs were his responsibility? Kimbrel may have given up the hits that scored the runs but he put the guys on base that scored, which of course give him the Loss. Not sure how he can have both a Hold and a Loss in that situation. I understand both Barnes and Kimbrel can’t get blown saves. It seems to me it’s more accurate that Barnes just have an L next his name because he didn’t hold anything.

Inherited runners don’t have anything to do with a hold. If you enter in a save situation and leave with the lead, it’s a hold. IOW:

Because a "Hold" is a stupid statistic.

 

[Max Power]

Joe Kelly is clearly the 8th inning guy and hasn't done anything to show he doesn't deserve it. He had a bad opening day and some bad luck/control last night, but who doesn't occasionally? It's the 7th inning that needs help, especially if the starters are only going 5 or 6. Hembree is not that guy. Maybe Thornberg and Smith will be healthy enough combined to split the workload so neither has to go back to back days.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

IF Thornburg returns to his previous dominant self, then I think you see:

6th or long man or LOOGY: Hembree, Velazquez, Wright, Johnson
7th: Barnes/Kelly
8th: Thornburg / Smith
9th: Kimbrel

Have I forgotten anyone?

Obviously all these guys aren't going to be active at the same time.

Guessing Thornburg replaces Velazquez. I have no idea how they are going to fit Wright in without using the DL or a trade.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

IF Thornburg returns to his previous dominant self, then I think you see:

6th or long man or LOOGY: Hembree, Vazquez, Wright, Johnson
7th: Barnes/Kelly
8th: Thornburg / Smith
9th: Kimbrel

Have I forgotten anyone?

Obviously all these guys aren't going to be active at the same time.

Guessing Thornburg replaces Vazquez. I have no idea how they are going to fit Wright in without using the DL or a trade.

I assume you mean Velazquez, not Vazquez. He goes down for whomever comes up first between Wright or Thornburg (probably Wright). Who goes to make room for the second guy (presumably Thornburg) would probably depend on health first (for a DL swap). Barnes and Smith both have options. Sending down either isn't ideal but if it's a matter of seeing what Thornburg has for a couple weeks before losing anybody (a DFA/trade of Hembree or Johnson or Wright) might be worth trying.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

They also have Jerez and Buttrey who haven't had auditions yet either. Just about everyone who was shuttled last year was perfectly fine.

The guy with the most potential is in AA, though he did get whacked pretty hard his last time out, despite striking out 4 in 2 innings. If Jake Cosart can ever get his BB's under control, he's going to be special. That is a REALLY HUGE IF. It probably also won't be this year, but anyone in AA is in arms reach of the Majors. He has 15k/5bb in 13.0 IP this year.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

And with as great as Jalen Beeks has been as a SP this year, I doubt they'd consider moving him to the pen but I guess it's an option.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

Could we maybe get a AA arm for Hembree, assuming he's the odd man out if/when Wright and Thornburg are back and the pen is otherwise full? Single A?

 

[pinkunicornsox]

Hembree is not going anywhere until Thornburg proves he is fully recovered from his injury. Take a look at Matt Harvey and how he is doing if you want to know how difficult it is to come back from that surgery. Getting rid of Hembree because Thornburg looks good in the minors would be really foolish.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Hembree is not going anywhere until Thornburg proves he is fully recovered from his injury. Take a look at Matt Harvey and how he is doing if you want to know how difficult it is to come back from that surgery. Getting rid of Hembree because Thornburg looks good in the minors would be really foolish.

Hembree is the definition of replaceable. Maybe you don't get rid of him because of a few minor league innings by Thornburg but there are a lot of other reasons they could get rid of him outside of that.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

Hembree is the definition of replaceable. Maybe you don't get rid of him because of a few minor league innings by Thornburg but there are a lot of other reasons they could get rid of him outside of that.

That's kinda what I was getting at in suggesting that maybe Hembree could get dealt - I don't know that he's any better than Workman or some of the other options available at Pawtucket. So if Thornburg is still not ready, there are alternatives not named Hembree.

 

[MikeM]

There's absolutely no reason for any Sox fans to expect John Henry to go over the high luxury tax threshold.

Except the fact he might have already done it, and even if we haven't just yet the whole "spend to within one million + change of the cap on opening day with a firm plan in place to stay under for the year" concept doesn't really jive with any approach to payroll they've taken in the past. Especially when there was a pretty good chance going in that we'd be among the best teams in the AL this year, and with an always ideal need to make midseason tweaks being a fairly predictable variable that goes into that.

If anything, there actually is absolutely no reason *not* to expect this team to go out and add an upgrade reliever this year if needed. Which is definitely looking a lot more like a when then an if atm/imo. Even if the always vague back round costs doesn't already do us in on the cap front, there is no way barring a serious team tank in the next couple of months that this bullpen doesn't include at least one outside face by the time Aug 1st rolls around. 10 spots in the draft for us just simply isn't that important in comparison. Whether people are going to be able to make peace with that is another matter altogether.

Joe Kelly is clearly the 8th inning guy and hasn't done anything to show he doesn't deserve it.

I'm all for acknowledging that Joe Kelly has rebounded quite a bit since the opening day disaster, but the day after he comes into that game and walks Gardner on 4 pitches in an extremely high level spot isn't exactly suggesting to me that the need for a more trustworthy 8th inning guy (especially come October) has been closed.

 

[chawson]

Hembree is fine. His K rate is solidly above average and he’s allowing the third-lowest rate of hard hit balls in MLB (17.0%). He had two strikes called balls last night (according to statcast) and it made a bad week look worse.

 

[pinkunicornsox]

I think you guys are underestimating Hembree. He is not irreplaceable, but he is not the type of guy you just discard in the hopes that either Thornburg, Workman or Maddox can fill his shoes.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Hembree's walk rate is up a bit this year in a very small sample, but otherwise he doesn't seem to be fundamentally different than the past couple seasons which was basically a typical 4th or 5th man in the bullpen type of player. His FIP is right in line so far with the last two seasons. He has a pretty big career split (about 50 points of wOBA and over 100 points of OPS) for RHB vs LHB and given his baseline isn't exceptional to begin with, he really should just be used as a ROOGY if they are going to pitch him in higher lev situations.

He's a bit better than literal replacement value (something like a half win per season), but they don't need to bend over backwards to keep him on the roster either. I'd be pretty disappointed if a guy like Thornburg couldn't outperform him. That said, you send a guy like Velazquez down first rather than Hembree.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

As I've been saying since the start of the season, the FO's inability to replace Addison Reed is a fatal flaw. In a division so hotly contested, they can't wait any longer to address this.

Reed's xFIP last year split between the Sox and Mets was 3.85. Currently, Hembree's xFIP this year is also 3.85 and Kelly, Barnes and Smith are all lower than that. And that doesn't even factor in Thornburg. Obviously, that's only a single stat and I'm not really suggesting the Sox have 4 current bullpen pitchers that are as good as Reed was last year, but, at least so far, I wouldn't say they've "missed" what Reed brought to the table last year.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

Everyone is ready to jettison Hembree, but what about Johnson?

I know he's a lefty, but he hasn't exactly lit it up. When push comes to shove and Thornburg and Wright are ready, there's a hard decision to be made.

 

[Humphrey]

Johnson would get claimed. He’s got five years of control after this and plenty of time to settle into an innings-eating #4-5 for a cheap team looking to sell off an arm or two at the deadline.

As long as Price doesn't go on the DL there is no role for Johnson...he cannot pitch in relief.

 

[lapa]

I don’t understand how anyone can be down on the Red Sox bullpen. It’s the 2nd or 3rd best in the AL. And the two arguably better bullpens — Houston and NY — have blown more saves.

I dont understand how anyone can think the Red Sox HAVE the 2nd or 3rd best bullpen though.
KImbrel is obviously great if not 100% automatic, then who is left

Hembree? awful body language, not someone to rely on come playoff time
ditto Johnson, Barnes, heck even Kelly is all over the place.

Smith has great stuff but is inconsistent.

They might have put up decent numbers in the first 30 odd games but no way can anyone think that is indicative of their relative quality around the league. I mean we never know how they might improve or be bolstered, but as things look right now, the bullpen is a huge weakness and I think that is going to be exposed over the coming months. Hopefully it can be improved, hopefully our offense and starting pitching can hide it to some extent.

Im not one of those who feel like we are entitled to win or even play great baseball every game, theres a lot of fun to be had with the Red Sox as they are right now, but bullpen? Come playoff time, *as things are now* our bullpen will be seen as clearly the worst of the contenders.

or are you really arguing that the guys we have in the pen are good? I think the only reliever I've enjoyed watching this season is Poyner, mainly because at least he doesnt seem to shit himself at the prospect of throwing strikes in a big league game

 

[In my lifetime]

Currently the RS bullpen has the 4th best xFIP and 5th highest WAR in the MLB.