BOS bullpen 2018

[Byrdbrain]

Everyone is ready to jettison Hembree, but what about Johnson?

I know he's a lefty, but he hasn't exactly lit it up. When push comes to shove and Thornburg and Wright are ready, there's a hard decision to be made.

I brought that up a while back thinking that there was a good chance he wouldn't be claimed and multiple people thought I was crazy.
I know he's cheap but the guy is 27, he can reach back and occasionally touch 88 and he has a career 5.5 ERA. I just don't see other teams getting all that excited about him and really if they DFA him and he does get claimed is it even a great loss.
I'd probably also DFA Wright but it seems like he and Thornburg are going to be on this team shortly and even though he hasn't been good lately I'd rather keep Hembree. That means Velazquez down to AAA which kind of sucks but at least they could keep him stretched out and I don't see any reason to have Velazquez and Wright both in the bullpen.

 

[BaseballJones]

By the numbers, here's Boston's bullpen ranks in the AL:

- ERA: 5th (3.87)
- BAA: 3rd (.235)
- OPS: 3rd (.691)
- SV%: 3rd (70.59%)
- WHIP: 4th (1.27)
- K/9: 3rd (10.13)

I know it FEELS like the Sox have a shaky bullpen, but they really don't. It's really pretty good on the whole. Put it this way: The vast majority of teams in the AL would gladly trade bullpens with the Red Sox.

 

[bosockboy]

By the numbers, here's Boston's bullpen ranks in the AL:

- ERA: 5th (3.87)
- BAA: 3rd (.235)
- OPS: 3rd (.691)
- SV%: 3rd (70.59%)
- WHIP: 4th (1.27)
- K/9: 3rd (10.13)

I know it FEELS like the Sox have a shaky bullpen, but they really don't. It's really pretty good on the whole. Put it this way: The vast majority of teams in the AL would gladly trade bullpens with the Red Sox.

All true, but this may not hold as much weight that it would in other seasons. There’s a possibility of 6-8 teams that will push 100 losses, as there are 5-6 legit teams in the entire AL. On the whole we aren’t as bad as we look, but we have a lot of room to improve if we want to win a pennant.

 

[joe dokes]

All true, but this may not hold as much weight that it would in other seasons. There’s a possibility of 6-8 teams that will push 100 losses, as there are 5-6 legit teams in the entire AL. On the whole we aren’t as bad as we look, but we have a lot of room to improve if we want to win a pennant.

Nobody has a better record. I think there are a lot of teams that would like to look that bad.

 

[lapa]

Well if you're happy with the bullpen I guess we'll see. Sure, the Red Sox are going to contend for the playoffs, and they might have put up decent numbers so far (against what hasnt felt like a super strong strength of schedule start), but seriously, you can look at their stats now all you want, but you want Hembree, Kelly, Barnes, Johnson when it comes to the good teams in the playoffs in the butt clenching games against the good teams? I wish I could but I cannot buy that, not even as an outside bet. Its not a recipe for success. As the bullpen is now, I dont see any chance its anything but a weakness at the business end of the season. If we can get Smith, Thornburg and Kimbrel on track for those games then its another question, but Hembree, Johnson, Kelly and the like cannot be trusted in high pressure situations because they either lack the stuff, the control or the mental fortitude to sack it up. I would love to be proved wrong, and its not like this affects my enjoyment of the current season, I'm just surprised people would be happy to look at their stats after a quarter of the season against some mixed bag schedule and feel like this will be OK. Too many question marks right now.

caveat: I have not followed how the other contenders bullpens look, hurray if they also have lots of holes, that doesnt affect how I evaluate the likely success of the arms we currently have in there.

 

[Byrdbrain]

Well if you're happy with the bullpen I guess we'll see. Sure, the Red Sox are going to contend for the playoffs, and they might have put up decent numbers so far (against what hasnt felt like a super strong strength of schedule start), but seriously, you can look at their stats now all you want, but you want Hembree, Kelly, Barnes, Johnson when it comes to the good teams in the playoffs in the butt clenching games against the good teams? I wish I could but I cannot buy that, not even as an outside bet. Its not a recipe for success. As the bullpen is now, I dont see any chance its anything but a weakness at the business end of the season. If we can get Smith, Thornburg and Kimbrel on track for those games then its another question, but Hembree, Johnson, Kelly and the like cannot be trusted in high pressure situations because they either lack the stuff, the control or the mental fortitude to sack it up. I would love to be proved wrong, and its not like this affects my enjoyment of the current season, I'm just surprised people would be happy to look at their stats after a quarter of the season against some mixed bag schedule and feel like this will be OK. Too many question marks right now.

caveat: I have not followed how the other contenders bullpens look, hurray if they also have lots of holes, that doesnt affect how I evaluate the likely success of the arms we currently have in there.

Kelly has been excellent all season in the highest leverage of situations except for opening day and a little shakiness the last 2 times out.
Smith has been great for a few weeks now with only one run scored against him in the last 11 outings. I think he is back.

If, and yes it is a big if, Thornburg can come back and be good that will give them 4 guys they can count on at the end of the game.

Barnes is absolutely a question mark at the end of a game but he is a big arm who is useful, I would though hesitate putting him in high lev situations. If he can take over for the spots that Hembree has been gagging in the last few games(6th or 7th inning, clean inning, bottom of the order) then that to me looks like it is a really good bullpen.

 

[BaseballJones]

All true, but this may not hold as much weight that it would in other seasons. There’s a possibility of 6-8 teams that will push 100 losses, as there are 5-6 legit teams in the entire AL. On the whole we aren’t as bad as we look, but we have a lot of room to improve if we want to win a pennant.

The main problem in the playoffs last year wasn't the bullpen. It was that the starting pitching totally crapped the bed. If the Sox' bullpen performs all season and in the playoffs like they're doing now, that's plenty good enough IF their starters aren't getting shelled.

 

[BaseballJones]

Well if you're happy with the bullpen I guess we'll see. Sure, the Red Sox are going to contend for the playoffs, and they might have put up decent numbers so far (against what hasnt felt like a super strong strength of schedule start), but seriously, you can look at their stats now all you want, but you want Hembree, Kelly, Barnes, Johnson when it comes to the good teams in the playoffs in the butt clenching games against the good teams? I wish I could but I cannot buy that, not even as an outside bet. Its not a recipe for success. As the bullpen is now, I dont see any chance its anything but a weakness at the business end of the season. If we can get Smith, Thornburg and Kimbrel on track for those games then its another question, but Hembree, Johnson, Kelly and the like cannot be trusted in high pressure situations because they either lack the stuff, the control or the mental fortitude to sack it up. I would love to be proved wrong, and its not like this affects my enjoyment of the current season, I'm just surprised people would be happy to look at their stats after a quarter of the season against some mixed bag schedule and feel like this will be OK. Too many question marks right now.

caveat: I have not followed how the other contenders bullpens look, hurray if they also have lots of holes, that doesnt affect how I evaluate the likely success of the arms we currently have in there.

You're taking about a "feel" thing. How does this bullpen make you "feel"? You "feel" better with the Yankee bullpen? Chapman is great of course. Robertson is good, yet has a 4.19 era. He blew a save against Cleveland last week and just imploded against Oakland. Betances "feels" like he's good but he currently sports a 5.63 era and 1.44 whip. Chad Green has good stats but gave up 2 runs against Boston the other day and has blown 2 saves in his last 4 appearances, one against Houston and one against Boston - both possible playoff opponents.

How about Houston's bullpen? Devenski is really good but he was AWFUL in last year's playoffs (9.00 era, 1.50 whip, .927 ops against). Peacock and Rondon are good. Giles, their closer, has just 5 saves and a 4.38 era, and I know two Astros fans and both of them are petrified when he comes in to close out a game. Harris has a 4.15 era and 1.39 whip. Smith has a 7.94 era and 1.50 whip. McHugh is good this season but has a career 4.01 era.

I mean, EVERY bullpen has shaky spots. We don't love Barnes but that's because we see him every day. We see the "sausage getting made", as it were, and sometimes it's not pretty, even if the end result is. If we saw a guy on another contending team who had a 3.24 era, 1.14 whip, 11.9 k/9, and could bring it at 98 mph three straight days, we'd think, damn, why can't we get guys like that? Same with Kelly (2.60 era, 0.98 whip, 9.9 k/9). Kimbrel of course is a closer every team would love to have.

 

[chawson]

The main problem in the playoffs last year wasn't the bullpen. It was that the starting pitching totally crapped the bed. If the Sox' bullpen performs all season and in the playoffs like they're doing now, that's plenty good enough IF their starters aren't getting shelled.

The bullpen wasn’t a problem in last year’s playoffs because it barely got the opportunity to be. Which doesn’t speak well for the bullpen.

It was a short series with a lot of high leverage innings. Barnes, Hembree, and Abad didn’t pitch. Kimbrel, Reed, and Smith all pitched badly in small samples. Kelly was okay. Price and Sale shouldn't really be considered part of the conversation.

We’ll have a good eight weeks to see if Thornburg is back, and regardless there should be a lot of bullpen pieces available this summer to load up for the playoffs. We already more or less know the hitters we’d be facing.

 

[RedOctober3829]

The bullpen wasn’t a problem in last year’s playoffs because it barely got the opportunity to be. Which doesn’t speak well for the bullpen.

It was a short series with a lot of high leverage innings. Barnes, Hembree, and Abad didn’t pitch. Kimbrel, Reed, and Smith all pitched badly in small samples. Kelly was okay. Price and Sale shouldn't really be considered part of the conversation.

We’ll have a good eight weeks to see if Thornburg is back, and regardless there should be a lot of bullpen pieces available this summer to load up for the playoffs. We already more or less know the hitters we’d be facing.

My main concern is that the division is going to be so close that a game or 2 blown by the pen in the mean time could mean the difference between playing in the WC game or not. I'll keep asserting this until I'm blue in the face: they are not good enough in the back end of the bullpen to win a championship.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

I think people's expectations of what a "good" bullpen is are out of whack. I don't know when it happened, maybe it was seeing the Royals, Indians, and Yankees rolling out power pens the last couple of years, but at some point, the expectation became that unless you have that Davis/Holland, Miller/Allen, Betances/Chapman, etc shutdown combo your pen just isn't good enough.

We already have one of the best closers of all time and 2-3 guys that could be considered quality setup guys in Smith, Kelly, and Thornburg. You could do a LOT worse for 5th/6th/7th inning guys than Barnes (I know he gets a lot of hate, but Barnes' numbers are actually good for what his role is) and Hembree, and Velazquez looks to be a solid long/spot starter. It's far from infallible, but it's also far from problematic in the grand scheme.

 

[Byrdbrain]

My main concern is that the division is going to be so close that a game or 2 blown by the pen in the mean time could mean the difference between playing in the WC game or not. I'll keep asserting this until I'm blue in the face: they are not good enough in the back end of the bullpen to win a championship.

Who needs data when we have assertions.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Who needs data when we have assertions.

I know what the numbers are. Despite what they are, I just don't trust any of our setup guys against the kind of lineups they will be facing in October. The atmosphere in Yankee Stadium and the pressure they faced there was October-like despite being in May and they imploded for the most part. You could chalk it up to a bad couple of days, but that has me really concerned.

 

[Byrdbrain]

I know what the numbers are. Despite what they are, I just don't trust any of our setup guys against the kind of lineups they will be facing in October. The atmosphere in Yankee Stadium and the pressure they faced there was October-like despite being in May and they imploded for the most part. You could chalk it up to a bad couple of days, but that has me really concerned.

If Heath Hembree and Matt Barnes are pitching in Hi Lev playoff situations then I'll be right there with you.
But if we are looking at Kimbrel, Kelly and Smith then I'm just fine with that. Throw in the possibility of Thornburg and one of Pom or ERod and now I think that is a bullpen that is as good as anyone's.

 

[bosockboy]

Nobody has a better record. I think there are a lot of teams that would like to look that bad.

I mean just the bullpen.

 

[BaseballJones]

Houston won the World Series last year. There were 10 teams in the playoffs (obviously including the one-game WC round). Of those 10 teams, here's where Houston's bullpen ranked:

ERA: 7th (5.40) - the only non-WC-losing team worse was the Cubs
BAA: 4th (.222)
SV%: 5th (57.14%)
OPS: 7th (.762)
WHIP: 4th (1.26)

Their bullpen last year in the playoffs was mediocre at best and, frankly, actually pretty awful. And they won the World Series.

*These are playoff numbers only.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I think back to the 2007 team. They won a World Series with 2.5 reliable relievers (Papelbon, Oki, Delcarmen being the half) and 1 starter consistently pitching through the 5th (Beckett). The pitching (rotation and pen) now blows them away.

Some folks in this thread seem to want peak Rivera, peak Koji, peak Papelbon, and peak Miller setting up for peak Kimbrel or the pen is questionable at best. It's just not realistic.

 

[dhappy42]

Currently the RS bullpen has the 4th best xFIP and 5th highest WAR in the MLB.

That works too. I was looking at WHIP and OPS to adjust for XBH.

Today’s AL bullpen standings:

WHIP
Houston - 1.00
Boston - 1.18
Cleveland - 1.18
MFY - 1.19

OPS (against)
Houston - .588
MFY - .659
Boston - .672
Tampa Bay - .705

Blown saves are a funny stat because most shitty teams don’t get many opportunities to blow saves. The Reds and Padres have only 2 blown saves. But for the teams listed above:

Houston - 5
Boston - 5
Cleveland - 5
Tampa Bay - 6
MFY - 7

No matter how you slice it, the Red Sox bullpen is among the best. Bullpens, by nature, are frustrating and fans tend to give a lot more psychological weight to times when they fail than to times when they succeed.

 

[dhappy42]

Individual relief pitcher stats can be deceiving early in the season because of SSS. And stats such as Saves and Holds are what they are. But I looked them up anyway.

SAVES
Diaz - 13
Kimbrel - 10
Chapman - 9
Osuna - 9

That’s sorta what you’d expect. Here’s where it gets strange:

HOLDS (dumb stat, but anyway...)

Nicasio -12
Roe - 9
Alvarado - 9
Barnes - 7 ***

Matt Barnes!?!?

Sure, Barnes has lost a game and blown a save, but Nicasio has lost one game and blown two saves.

Barnes is producing results, though he gets there the hard way, driving fans (and I imagine coaches) nuts. His walk rate is sky high. But no one can hit him. Barnes’ WHIP — 1.15 — is the same as Toronto’s John Axford.

Over 16.2 innings, Barnes has walked 12, struck out 22, and given up just 7 hits. But on three occasions, (twice in Toronto,) Barnes has walked two batters in the same inning. And that’s what grumpy “our bullpen sucks/Matt Barnes sucks” fans remember.

The other much-maligned Red Sox reliever, Joe Kelly, has also been nails, except for two games, the opening-day loss in Tampa and the most recent game in NYC, which the Sox won anyway.

Excepting those two outings, Kelly’s ERA is: 0.00

In 16 appearances, Kelly has been lights out in 14 of them.

“Gotta do better,” you say?

Consider this: In 17 appearances, Kimbrel has given up 3 HRs, blown two saves and lost a game. Not saying Kelly = Kimbrel, but we cut Kimbrel a lot more slack than guys like Barnes and Kelly. When Kimbrel serves up a game-losing dinger, it’s “shit happens, nobody’s perfect.” But when Barnes or Kelly walk two guys in a row, it’s “Barnes sucks. Kelly sucks.” Even if they eventually work out of the inning.

Maybe there’s a psychological effect at play here. A game-losing HR is like ripping a band-aid off with one quick yank, but Barnes and Kelly can both torture us for what seems like an hours-long inning.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I think back to the 2007 team. They won a World Series with 2.5 reliable relievers (Papelbon, Oki, Delcarmen being the half) and 1 starter consistently pitching through the 5th (Beckett). The pitching (rotation and pen) now blows them away.

Some folks in this thread seem to want peak Rivera, peak Koji, peak Papelbon, and peak Miller setting up for peak Kimbrel or the pen is questionable at best. It's just not realistic.

In 2013 there really were 2 1/2 as well. Koji, Taz, 1/2 Breslow.

 

[RIrooter09]

In 2013 there really were 2 1/2 as well. Koji, Taz, 1/2 Breslow.

Doubront and Workman stepped up in the playoffs as well.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Houston won the World Series last year. There were 10 teams in the playoffs (obviously including the one-game WC round). Of those 10 teams, here's where Houston's bullpen ranked:

ERA: 7th (5.40) - the only non-WC-losing team worse was the Cubs
BAA: 4th (.222)
SV%: 5th (57.14%)
OPS: 7th (.762)
WHIP: 4th (1.26)

Their bullpen last year in the playoffs was mediocre at best and, frankly, actually pretty awful. And they won the World Series.

*These are playoff numbers only.

Houston won the World Series because their offense raked, they had 2 of the best starting pitchers in baseball pitching at a high level, and the starters they put in the pen pitched very well when they needed them to. You can survive a mediocre bullpen if you have dominant starting pitching. Can the Sox rotation do that in October?

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Doubront and Workman stepped up in the playoffs as well.

As did Lackey. But none of those guys were considered anything better than what's in
this year's pen. Just like guys stepped up for Houston last year that weren't overwhelming heading into the post-season.

 

[Salem's Lot]

-

 

[dhappy42]

As long as I’m stat-crunching...

The combined WHIP of the top four Red Sox relievers (Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes and Smith) is currently:

1.08

 

[Rasputin]

Houston won the World Series because their offense raked, they had 2 of the best starting pitchers in baseball pitching at a high level, and the starters they put in the pen pitched very well when they needed them to. You can survive a mediocre bullpen if you have dominant starting pitching. Can the Sox rotation do that in October?

Yes.

I don't get why people ask questions like this. If you're good enough to get to the post season, you're good enough to get hot for a few weeks and win it all.

Every starting pitcher we have is capable of pitching brilliantly on any given day. There's a great totally of one track that has scored more runs per game than we have. Reinforcements in the form of Pedroia and Thornburg are arriving soon.

This is a very good team. If it stays healthy it's going to end up with one of the top five or six records in the game, probably better.

It's gonna have good stretches. It's gonna have bad stretches. It's going to have a lot of big games against good teams. It's going to win some. It's going to lose some.

It's going to be a fun summer. Can we please, got fuck's sale enjoy it and not spend three months pissing and morning because it's not six times better than the second best team?

 

[Jerry’s Curl]

Brian Johnson needs to be sent down and Bobby Poyner recalled ASAP.

 

[bosockboy]

Brian Johnson needs to be sent down and Bobby Poyner recalled ASAP.

Out of options.

 

[johnnywayback]

Johnson is out of options.

 

[Byrdbrain]

Brian Johnson needs to be sent down and Bobby Poyner recalled ASAP.

This is the second time you've posted this or something similar in less than 24 hours.
As has been pointed out both last night and today Brian Johnson can't be sent down. He can be and I think will be DFA'd.
Poyner makes a bit more sense than your statement last night of bringing up Beeks(to do what?) but it is still unlikely to happen since Wright needs to be activated Monday(I'd DFA him too but it seems the Sox are activating him) and Thornburg looks close as well.

I suppose Johnson could be DFA'd today and Poyner brought up until Monday when Wright is activated but I don't know if the upgrade is really worth it.
Velazquez is available today to eat innings if Price has a short day.

 

[dhappy42]

It’s not rocket surgery. There are 12 roster slots for pitchers:

5 starters: Sale, Price, Porcello, Pom and ERod.
6th starter/long-man/mop-up: Wright

6 relievers: Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, Smith, Thornburg... plus one LOOGY, probably Johnson because, as has been said a million times, no options.

BTW... what ever happened to Robby Scott? I see he’s given up 10 hits and 2 walks over 12 innings in Pawtucket, which is not bad, but I can’t see his MiLB left/right splits.

 

[Jerry’s Curl]

This is the second time you've posted this or something similar in less than 24 hours.
As has been pointed out both last night and today Brian Johnson can't be sent down. He can be and I think will be DFA'd.
Poyner makes a bit more sense than your statement last night of bringing up Beeks(to do what?) but it is still unlikely to happen since Wright needs to be activated Monday(I'd DFA him too but it seems the Sox are activating him) and Thornburg looks close as well.

I suppose Johnson could be DFA'd today and Poyner brought up until Monday when Wright is activated but I don't know if the upgrade is really worth it.
Velazquez is available today to eat innings if Price has a short day.

I stand corrected. Poyner can definitely help the bullpen right now and Wright returning helps out the depth in the rotation to offset the loss of Johnson.

 

[tonyarmasjr]

Houston won the World Series because their offense raked, they had 2 of the best starting pitchers in baseball pitching at a high level, and the starters they put in the pen pitched very well when they needed them to. You can survive a mediocre bullpen if you have dominant starting pitching. Can the Sox rotation do that in October?

Derail: I remember this from the offseason thread - they actually didn't. .745 OPS and 4.3 R/G (worse than what the Sox managed in their 4 G) was mediocre. They scored 2 runs or fewer in 7 of their 18 postseason games. Obviously, they were really good all-around, but, like any team that wins the WS, they just "made plays when they needed to be made." And, it doesn't change your overall point.

 

[Al Zarilla]

It’s not rocket surgery.

Is this comparable to “was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?”

 

[Dropo's moose]

As long as I’m stat-crunching...

The combined WHIP of the top four Red Sox relievers (Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes and Smith) is currently:

1.08

Kimbrel alone is .8
An Elite Closer is covering up the deficiencies of the others. Kelly is what he is. Smith has pitched well the last week. Pitchers like Barnes and Hembree who both have a career WHIP of 1.5 give or take have been and always will be inconsistent based on a very long track record.
The Bigger ? is how long do you wait for Pitchers like Barnes and Hembree when there track record indicates they will not get better.

The other ? is, at what point do you start looking at the Personnel running the Minor League Developmental system in Baird and Crockett. The Organization has not developed a legit Reliever or Starter since Lester and Paps no?

 

[lapa]

You're taking about a "feel" thing. How does this bullpen make you "feel"? You "feel" better with the Yankee bullpen? Chapman is great of course. Robertson is good, yet has a 4.19 era. He blew a save against Cleveland last week and just imploded against Oakland. Betances "feels" like he's good but he currently sports a 5.63 era and 1.44 whip. Chad Green has good stats but gave up 2 runs against Boston the other day and has blown 2 saves in his last 4 appearances, one against Houston and one against Boston - both possible playoff opponents.

How about Houston's bullpen? Devenski is really good but he was AWFUL in last year's playoffs (9.00 era, 1.50 whip, .927 ops against). Peacock and Rondon are good. Giles, their closer, has just 5 saves and a 4.38 era, and I know two Astros fans and both of them are petrified when he comes in to close out a game. Harris has a 4.15 era and 1.39 whip. Smith has a 7.94 era and 1.50 whip. McHugh is good this season but has a career 4.01 era.

I mean, EVERY bullpen has shaky spots. We don't love Barnes but that's because we see him every day. We see the "sausage getting made", as it were, and sometimes it's not pretty, even if the end result is. If we saw a guy on another contending team who had a 3.24 era, 1.14 whip, 11.9 k/9, and could bring it at 98 mph three straight days, we'd think, damn, why can't we get guys like that? Same with Kelly (2.60 era, 0.98 whip, 9.9 k/9). Kimbrel of course is a closer every team would love to have.

I take your point but I'm not really talking about "feel" other than using the wrong kind of language I guess. Maybe I should have said "in my evaluation watching those guys pitch". Of course I am not an MLB scout, coach or player, so caveat emptor, I'm not claiming to be an expert witness. But if Vazquez suddenly hits well for a week thats not going to change my evaluation of him as a "not very good hitter". We're still in somewhat limited sample space, against a limited set of opponents early on in the season, so what I mean (feel) is that the majority of the guys in the bullpen are not "as good" as their numbers say, and they will not be up to scratch when it gets to game after game of constant high pressure high leverage win or die situations.
Of course other teams probably have issues, but I think both Houston and NYY are better hitting teams, or at least, seem to have less obvious "holes".
Of course any team getting to the playoffs can get hot or lucky or whatever and win, no credit for stating the obvious. Who the hell knows whats going to happen over the next 125 games plus playoffs. None of us do. In my opinion however, as it is constructed now is going to put a lot of pressure on our starting pitchers and hitting, and we will see how well it all holds up. From a personal psychology point of view, we have some pitchers that do seem to "tense up" a bit too easily, I think sometimes that can make things seem worse because players and fans all feel that twitchy nervousness and expectation of things going wrong. Probably the times when it does go wrong (as it has a few times recently) there comes a confirmation bias effect as well.

If it gets to a point where you're twitching about the bullpen with 125 games to go and tied for the best record in baseball, probably its actually a pretty good sign things are alright I suppose

 

[BaseballJones]

Houston won the World Series because their offense raked, they had 2 of the best starting pitchers in baseball pitching at a high level, and the starters they put in the pen pitched very well when they needed them to. You can survive a mediocre bullpen if you have dominant starting pitching. Can the Sox rotation do that in October?

Well that's the question. There are many ways to be successful. Sale and Price have been (Price until he joined the Sox) two of the very best starters in all of baseball. Theoretically they SHOULD be able to dominate in October.

 

[dhappy42]

Kimbrel alone is .8
An Elite Closer is covering up the deficiencies of the others.

Well, a team’s elite closer is almost always going to be better than the next three best guys in the bullpen, but anyway, let’s look only at Kelly, Barnes and Smith and their deficiencies.

Combined 46-2/3 IP, 30 hits, 25 walks and 58 Ks. Combined WHIP = 1.17

Combined one save (Kelly) and 14 holds. (Yes, I know holds are a dumb stat.)

The only glaring deficiency is that Barnes walks a ton of batters. But he strikes out a ton of batters too and has given up only 7 hits over 16-2/3 innings. His WHIP is 1.14, slightly better than the combined Kelly/Barnes/Smith WHIP and coincidentally the same as Andrew Miller, James Paxton and Clayton Kershaw’s

The Bigger ? is how long do you wait for Pitchers like Barnes and Hembree when there track record indicates they will not get better.

Hembree is another matter, but if Barnes gets better, he’ll be elite closer quality. He needs to cut down the number of walks. In another thread, I’ve discussed his BB problem. I don’t think it’s a problem with control, but instead that it’s a deception problem or a pitching-approach problem. But that’s another story.

 

[tonyarmasjr]

Kimbrel alone is .8
An Elite Closer is covering up the deficiencies of the others. Kelly is what he is. Smith has pitched well the last week. Pitchers like Barnes and Hembree who both have a career WHIP of 1.5 give or take have been and always will be inconsistent based on a very long track record.
The Bigger ? is how long do you wait for Pitchers like Barnes and Hembree when there track record indicates they will not get better.

The other ? is, at what point do you start looking at the Personnel running the Minor League Developmental system in Baird and Crockett. The Organization has not developed a legit Reliever or Starter since Lester and Paps no?

I guess I don't understand your argument. Of course an elite (and the best) reliever on a team covers for the deficiencies of others. Is there a team where this doesn't happen? Kelly and Barnes have a WHIP of 0.98 and 1.14. That's not really deficient. As you said, Smith has been better recently; his is 1.5 for the season, the only one that isn't really good.

Barnes and Hembree have a career WHIP of 1.37 and 1.40, not 1.5. I have never really been a big fan of Barnes (or Kelly, for that matter. I value command in relievers pretty highly), but he has improved appreciably year over year:
2015 - 8.16 K/9, 5.44 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, 1.65 WHIP
2016 - 9.59 K/9, 4.05 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, 1.40 WHIP
2017 - 10.72 K/9, 3.88 ERA, 3.27 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP
2018 - 11.88 K/9, 3.24 ERA, 3.64 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP

His track record actually shows that he has gotten and is getting better.

Hembree is just another reliever, and he's the 5th guy out of the pen right now. His uptick in K rate the last couple years has hinted maybe he could be a little more than that, but no one's "waiting" on him. If you want to replace him with one of the other guys of similar value, that's fine, but it's just treading water.

 

[dhappy42]

...Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, Smith, Thornburg...

That’s 5/6th of an *awesome* bullpen, if you ask me. Which you didn’t.

Sure, Kimbrel serves up a game-losing HR now and again, Kelly and Barnes can be wild. (How many 95mph guys aren’t?) Smith and Thornburg are still recovering... but everybody’s bullpen has weakness. The Red Sox bullpen has fewer of them than all but three or four other teams.

I’m more concerned about not having a reliable LOOGY than any of the guys now in the bullpen.

 

[InsideTheParker]

Well that's the question. There are many ways to be successful. Sale and Price have been (Price until he joined the Sox) two of the very best starters in all of baseball. Theoretically they SHOULD be able to dominate in October.

But I thought that one of the knocks on Price was that he has mostly been undistinguished in October.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=priceda01&t=p&post=1

 

[BaseballJones]

But I thought that one of the knocks on Price was that he has mostly been undistinguished in October.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=priceda01&t=p&post=1

That's true. But based on his ability and long term track record, he SHOULD be able to be great in October. Alas...he hasn't been, and Sale was pretty bad as well. The Sox, no matter how good their bullpen is, aren't going to go far in the playoffs if they starting pitching is horrible and their hitting is mediocre at best.

 

[Byrdbrain]

It’s not rocket surgery. There are 12 roster slots for pitchers:

5 starters: Sale, Price, Porcello, Pom and ERod.
6th starter/long-man/mop-up: Wright

6 relievers: Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, Smith, Thornburg... plus one LOOGY, probably Johnson because, as has been said a million times, no options.

BTW... what ever happened to Robby Scott? I see he’s given up 10 hits and 2 walks over 12 innings in Pawtucket, which is not bad, but I can’t see his MiLB left/right splits.

So you are DFAing Hembree? I’d rather keep him than Johnson but they are both replaceable and I don’t see a loogy as a need unless he is really good which Johnson isn’t.

 

[Dropo's moose]

I guess I don't understand your argument. Of course an elite (and the best) reliever on a team covers for the deficiencies of others. Is there a team where this doesn't happen? Kelly and Barnes have a WHIP of 0.98 and 1.14. That's not really deficient. As you said, Smith has been better recently; his is 1.5 for the season, the only one that isn't really good.

Barnes and Hembree have a career WHIP of 1.37 and 1.40, not 1.5. I have never really been a big fan of Barnes (or Kelly, for that matter. I value command in relievers pretty highly), but he has improved appreciably year over year:
2015 - 8.16 K/9, 5.44 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, 1.65 WHIP
2016 - 9.59 K/9, 4.05 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, 1.40 WHIP
2017 - 10.72 K/9, 3.88 ERA, 3.27 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP
2018 - 11.88 K/9, 3.24 ERA, 3.64 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP

His track record actually shows that he has gotten and is getting better.

Hembree is just another reliever, and he's the 5th guy out of the pen right now. His uptick in K rate the last couple years has hinted maybe he could be a little more than that, but no one's "waiting" on him. If you want to replace him with one of the other guys of similar value, that's fine, but it's just treading water.

I disagree on Barnes. Baseball Ref Clutch Stats, late innings and close, the walks are staggering in 2016, 17 again in 18. The control is a major issue and although the stats above say he is getting better, the eye test for me says he is not.

I understand there is a level of patience and not all of these Relievers can be dominate all the time. In this case as with Kelly (control), how long do constantly run the same pitchers out there with the same result?

My argument is this, Can you win a Championship with Kelly Barnes getting you to Kimbrel? I don't think you can.

 

[Byrdbrain]

I disagree on Barnes. Baseball Ref Clutch Stats, late innings and close, the walks are staggering in 2016, 17 again in 18. The control is a major issue and although the stats above say he is getting better, the eye test for me says he is not.

I understand there is a level of patience and not all of these Relievers can be dominate all the time. In this case as with Kelly (control), how long do constantly run the same pitchers out there with the same result?

My argument is this, Can you win a Championship with Kelly Barnes getting you to Kimbrel? I don't think you can.

Kelly has been excellent all year except for 2 outings, yes his control is always a bit of a question but I have no problem running him out there. Smith is the second setup guy and he's been excellent for a month now, hopefully he is back.
I have no problem running those two out as the main setup guys.

As it stands now Barnes is the next guy up but ideally Thornburg can come in and be that guy and then Barnes can be slotted in to the job that Hembree has been doing.

If they hit and the starting pitchers are healthy they can absolutely win it all with that bullpen. If they don't do the first two it doesn't matter how good the bullpen is.

 

[grimshaw]

Everyone is ready to jettison Hembree, but what about Johnson?

I know he's a lefty, but he hasn't exactly lit it up. When push comes to shove and Thornburg and Wright are ready, there's a hard decision to be made.

I don't think Johnson is worth keeping anymore either since stretching him back out as a starter will be very difficult and he is now basically either a LOOGY ,use him for blow outs or until he breaks guy. The argument before was to keep him since they are short on starter depth, but I don't see how he can be used that way again since he can only go to the minors with his consent.

I think you guys are underestimating Hembree. He is not irreplaceable, but he is not the type of guy you just discard in the hopes that either Thornburg, Workman or Maddox can fill his shoes.

I'm not saying get rid of Hembree, he deserves some rope since he is at least marginally better than replaceable. I'm saying 6th or 7th guys out of the pen is basically the only thing the Red Sox have tons of depth of in in the minors so if they were to move him, the downgrade is minimal at worst or they quite possibly upgrade.

And as I have mentioned before, Velazquez deserves to be on the team based on his performance and is the only reliever who can go through a batting order. They had the choice to send him to AAA when Poyner was ready and elected not to - and they now risk burning Poyner's first option (if they haven't already). That tells me they value him enough to keep him up. Maybe Wright can be that guy again but 3 long men is definitely redundant.

Thornburg is no lock, but again, they have relief depth. I would prefer they keep their best roster since they are in a dog fight. Hembree and Johnson have already cost us games.

 

[grimshaw]

Another less likely option is that they keep 13 pitchers when Wright comes back. They don't pinch hit very much and Nunez and Holt are two super utility guys that most teams don't have the luxury of having. You can still rotate them in to give guys full game breathers. Swihart has played 24 total innings in the field which means they are basically playing with one man short anyhow with Cora's otherwise liberal use of the bench. Comparatively, Lin has played 232 and has only been active for half their games.

Of course then it's time to decide what to do with Swihart. They could maybe move Johnson or Swihart in a deal that brings a back up catcher with options or simply sign one to a minor league contract. They will need one at some point anyhow, whether it's later this year or next year, so just pull the band aid off while they have a pitching surplus

Pedey is a guy two weeks away too, so my guess is the Swihart situation will come to a head then anyhow if everyone is healthy (big if).

Minor point too - but it is doubtful anyone will get DFA'd, rather they'll be straight up traded. Pitching is so shallow around the league, and there are so many shitty or mediocre teams that could use pitching with some marginal upside. Teams like the Orioles, Royals, Padres etc ought to be throwing Wright or Johnson or whomever the Sox will likely have to move into their rotations or bullpens.

 

[AB in DC]

Minor point too - but it is doubtful anyone will get DFA'd, rather they'll be straight up traded. Pitching is so shallow around the league, and there are so many shitty or mediocre teams that could use pitching with some marginal upside. Teams like the Orioles, Royals, Padres etc ought to be throwing Wright or Johnson or whomever the Sox will likely have to move into their rotations or bullpens.

Why on earth would a cellar-dweller give up any minor league players for a guy like Wright or Johnson? They're sellers, not buyers. Upgrading from a 65-win team to a 67-win team is useless.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Minor point too - but it is doubtful anyone will get DFA'd, rather they'll be straight up traded. Pitching is so shallow around the league, and there are so many shitty or mediocre teams that could use pitching with some marginal upside. Teams like the Orioles, Royals, Padres etc ought to be throwing Wright or Johnson or whomever the Sox will likely have to move into their rotations or bullpens.

Those teams might claim those guys off waivers but I doubt very much they would move any type of talent for them.

 

[tonyarmasjr]

I disagree on Barnes. Baseball Ref Clutch Stats, late innings and close, the walks are staggering in 2016, 17 again in 18. The control is a major issue and although the stats above say he is getting better, the eye test for me says he is not.

I understand there is a level of patience and not all of these Relievers can be dominate all the time. In this case as with Kelly (control), how long do constantly run the same pitchers out there with the same result?

My argument is this, Can you win a Championship with Kelly Barnes getting you to Kimbrel? I don't think you can.

Can you be more specific on what stats you're looking at? His high lev stats were much better last year than 2016.

The control is an issue; I agree. But, 1) he's been successful in spite of it and 2) he's improved overall in spite of it. The facts do not agree with your eye test. He has become an above average reliever. It certainly isn't ideal (which is why I'm not a huge fan) for a relief ace or closer to have control issues, but he isn't being asked to be that guy. You constantly run him out there because he's a good (not great) reliever. "The same result" is better than average success. What is it you want? 4 Craig Kimbrels?

Your argument has no legs: no one is asking Kelly and Barnes to get us to Kimbrel. As Byrdbrain says, it's Smith and Kelly. Barnes is the 4th best reliever, assuming Thornburg doesn't return to form this season. Barnes isn't going to be asked to be an 8th inning guy in September/October. If that becomes the case, due to injury or underperformance of the other guys, I expect them to go get another setup man.