Barnes could always continue to improve as the season goes along and actually be the 8th inning guy. He has the stuff, anyway. Bullpens never work out the way you expect them to.
BOS bullpen 2018
- Thread starter Hank Scorpio
- Start date
If you expect the worst, they can!
Seriously, though. The efficacy of the bullpen overall relies on two main factors: 1) Thornburg being able to pitch well after he returns, and 2) the starters increasingly pitching deeper into games.
I’m agnostic on the first one of those points, but am optimistic about the second. Sale and Porcello have really hit their stride after taking it easy in ST, and if that trend continues the bullpen will be at least adequate.
There isn't any doubt in my mind Carson Smith will end up being the second most reliable person in the pen. He has a history of missing bats with plus control.
He seems to be getting stronger with every outing. He also posssses the most dominant secondary pitch on the team ourside Sale and Kimbrel.
I don't worry about the 8th much because I think Carson Smith will become that guy and I think he'll be one of the best in baseball.
He seems to be getting stronger with every outing. He also posssses the most dominant secondary pitch on the team ourside Sale and Kimbrel.
I don't worry about the 8th much because I think Carson Smith will become that guy and I think he'll be one of the best in baseball.
I wouldn't say Johnson has been "forced" in to anything. He is being used like the last guy in the bullpen/long man that he is. Other than his early season start, before ERod and Pom were back, he's only pitched in 10 games most of which were blowouts or extra innings games.
Obviously the game Friday night stands out, it was an extra inning game but since Sale went 9 there were still better guys who hadn't pitched yet. Velazquez clearly would have been a better option there if you want a guy who can go multiple innings but with Price going the next day it is understandable, if questionable, that they would want to hold him back.
2017 - 2018
(WAR used here is the average of fangraphs' fipwar and ra9war)
Kimbrel 86.1ip, 35era-, 3.3war/65ip ---- Chapman 68.1ip, 63era-, 2.2war/65
Smith 20.0ip, 60era-, 1.6war/65ip ------- Green 88.0ip, 42era-, 2.4war/65
Kelly 76.1ip, 60era-, 1.5war/65ip --------- Robertson 87.2ip, 54era-, 2.0war/65
Barnes 86.1ip, 83era-, 0.9war/65ip ------ Betances 76.2ip, 77era-, 1.1war/65
Hembree 79.1ip, 90era-, 0.5war/65ip -- Holder 51.2ip, 91era-, 0.7war/65
Velazquez 23.1ip, 26era-, 1.8war/65ip - Shreve 59.2ip, 82era-, 0.3warr/65
yanks have better setup men (though ours are pretty dang good), while we have the better closer.
(WAR used here is the average of fangraphs' fipwar and ra9war)
Kimbrel 86.1ip, 35era-, 3.3war/65ip ---- Chapman 68.1ip, 63era-, 2.2war/65
Smith 20.0ip, 60era-, 1.6war/65ip ------- Green 88.0ip, 42era-, 2.4war/65
Kelly 76.1ip, 60era-, 1.5war/65ip --------- Robertson 87.2ip, 54era-, 2.0war/65
Barnes 86.1ip, 83era-, 0.9war/65ip ------ Betances 76.2ip, 77era-, 1.1war/65
Hembree 79.1ip, 90era-, 0.5war/65ip -- Holder 51.2ip, 91era-, 0.7war/65
Velazquez 23.1ip, 26era-, 1.8war/65ip - Shreve 59.2ip, 82era-, 0.3warr/65
yanks have better setup men (though ours are pretty dang good), while we have the better closer.
Last full, healthy seasons for Smith and Thornburg (2015 and 2016, respectively)
CS: 70 ip, 49 h, 18 er, 22 bb, 92 k (2.31 era, 11.8 k/9)
TT: 67 ip, 38 h, 16 er, 25 bb, 90 k (2.15 era, 12.1 k/9)
No guarantee either will get back to those levels, obviously, but both are in their athletic primes (28 and 29) and seem to be rounding back into form by the week. If they can get to even 80-90% of peak form to bolster Barnes, Kelly, and Kimbrel, we're talking about a pretty killer group. (All RHP, alas, but of course come playoff time you can mix in the occasional inning or two from Sale, Price, EdRo or Pom...)
CS: 70 ip, 49 h, 18 er, 22 bb, 92 k (2.31 era, 11.8 k/9)
TT: 67 ip, 38 h, 16 er, 25 bb, 90 k (2.15 era, 12.1 k/9)
No guarantee either will get back to those levels, obviously, but both are in their athletic primes (28 and 29) and seem to be rounding back into form by the week. If they can get to even 80-90% of peak form to bolster Barnes, Kelly, and Kimbrel, we're talking about a pretty killer group. (All RHP, alas, but of course come playoff time you can mix in the occasional inning or two from Sale, Price, EdRo or Pom...)
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I'm talking about back up catchers, or marginal guys, and/or cash. Not legit prospects. And if Swihart or Wright become effective players, they are part of the rebuild. That's exactly the type of cheap low risk acquisitions those teams should make.
I should probably rephrase though. Players like that have enough value where they don't need to be DFA'd since they will be claimed. The Sox are just better off talking to teams and trying to get the best deal on their own timeline unless they think there is a chance those guys go unclaimed and would accept minor league assignments. Doubtful though.
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So Wright is activated and Velazquez goes on the DL with a "back injury." My most optimistic reading of this is that the Sox are actively shopping Johnson (no, I don't think he nets a great return, but for a team that has room on the roster his cost control and possible upside have value). They would not want to muddy a potential trade with a phantom DL trip to explain. Seems to me that when (if!) Wright and Thornburg are back, Johnson needs to be on another team and Velazquez needs to be riding the Pawtucket shuttle as the 6th starter. He's been useful out of the pen, but the Sox best use for him is going to be as a stretched out and ready to go starter.
Thing is, since the DL has been cut to 10 days starting last year it has given both an incentive to teams to use it instead of leaving hurt players in the active roster, and also has given many teams a way to game the system. But that being said, Velazquez could have easily been sent down to AAA (where he was ineligible to return for 10 days unless there is a DL) so I see no reason for the Sox to use a phantom injury on him.
Question is what to do with Brian Johnson
Question is what to do with Brian Johnson
Johnson's moment of DFA/trade is NO TRAGEDY. I'm nervous but interested in Thornburg.
I’m not seeing the reason to do this as a phantom DL. I guess it saves them from juggling the PawSox roster, but it isn’t like there are a bunch of prospects there that can’t be messed with.
I could understand a phantom DL of Wright or Johnson.
What am I missing?
I could understand a phantom DL of Wright or Johnson.
What am I missing?
Johnson (and Swihart) wouldn't have to "accept" minor league assignments because they don't have 3 years of major league service time - if they cleared waivers, they would be sent to AAA and they couldn't do anything about it. So they only question is whether they would make it through waivers, which I think is more questionable than you suggest - none of them are paid very much, so absorbing the contract wouldn't be a huge issue, but if you claim a player off waivers that player must be added to the claiming team's 40-man roster which in this case means 25-man roster since they are obviously out of options. Is there a team out there (other than the Red Sox, for now) that wants Brian Johnson taking up one of 25 spots on its roster? Maybe, but maybe not.
Probably that Velazquez is actually hurt - even if it's not a major injury I assume he truly is dealing with something that the team thinks is best addressed by 10 days of rest instead of 10 days (or whatever) playing in Providence.
The Red Sox would prefer to keep Johnson and Wright more for the future than for this year.
If Wright is healthy he might be able to eat 200 innings with an ERA of 4.20 to 4.50, which wouldn't help this team that much as it is now (assuming health) but could be really helpful next year, especially if Pomeranz leaves. Or in 2020 if Porcello leaves then.
And if Wright can't do that, it would be nice to have Johnson around in case he can become a typical crafty lefty 4th or 5th starter.
Velazquez looks good but in a tiny sample, and it'd be better to have 3 potential options rather than one when you're talking about guys without very impressive stuff.
If either one of them can be a decent starting pitcher next year or the year after, they would help save a lot of money at a time when we will hopefully be signing some important extensions.
We don't have much in the minors at all for potential starters. Beeks is the only guy above AA who might be a decent starter but he's still never pitched in the majors, and people have talked about him as a potential reliever too.
Johnson will get moved out if they need the space, but so far they haven't really needed it.
If Wright is healthy he might be able to eat 200 innings with an ERA of 4.20 to 4.50, which wouldn't help this team that much as it is now (assuming health) but could be really helpful next year, especially if Pomeranz leaves. Or in 2020 if Porcello leaves then.
And if Wright can't do that, it would be nice to have Johnson around in case he can become a typical crafty lefty 4th or 5th starter.
Velazquez looks good but in a tiny sample, and it'd be better to have 3 potential options rather than one when you're talking about guys without very impressive stuff.
If either one of them can be a decent starting pitcher next year or the year after, they would help save a lot of money at a time when we will hopefully be signing some important extensions.
We don't have much in the minors at all for potential starters. Beeks is the only guy above AA who might be a decent starter but he's still never pitched in the majors, and people have talked about him as a potential reliever too.
Johnson will get moved out if they need the space, but so far they haven't really needed it.
That was my point in a bit of a roundabout way. I like to think of it as Socratic.
This seems like the right move. If Johnson can do a reasonable Pomeranz impression and Porcello stays good, then next year's rotation of Sale/Price/Porcello/ERod/Johnson is just fine.
In other words, I'd take Brian Johnson's 2019 over half of next year's FA starting pitcher market (Harvey, Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Liriano, Tillman, Iwakuma, Miley, Tomlin, Holland, etc.), and the big ticket guys (Morton, Richards, Corbin, Keuchel, Happ) would push us over the secondary threshold.
I think there is a pretty good chance Jalen Beeks will leapfrog Brian Johnson on the depth charts before 2019, assuming the Redsox think his arm will hold up as a starter and they don't move him to the bullpen. Johnson is extremely hittable.
What’s the love with Johnson? He has never demonstrated anything to think about him as part of next year’s rotation (I know SSS), but he doesn’t look like a ML pitcher. And Velazquez? Oh yes he should be the sixth starter because he is a “bad hombre”, now I get it.
Johnson may have just gotten a stay of execution. Carson Smith to the DL with a shoulder subluxation, Poyner up. Who knows how long Smith will be down, which paves the way for Thornburg to return at the expense of optioning Poyner instead of DFAing Johnson. Might at least give them a chance to see what Thornburg has at the big league level (he didn't look great last night) before sacrificing Johnson.
Way to go, Carson.
Carson Smith hurt his arm throwing his glove in the dugout after he left the game yesterday. "It's unfortunate," Dave Dombrowski said. No timetable. Went for testing today, MRI, needs a second opinion: "It's got the potential of being a major injury."
Carson Smith hurt his arm throwing his glove in the dugout after he left the game yesterday. "It's unfortunate," Dave Dombrowski said. No timetable. Went for testing today, MRI, needs a second opinion: "It's got the potential of being a major injury."
Wow. So yeah, so much for the roster crunch in the bullpen when Thornburg is deemed ready. Are Smith and Thornburg ever going to be on the active roster at the same time?
First Price, now Smith. What a roller coaster ride this year is going to be. Just today, we had the Cano suspension and the Smith injury.
I was listening to the game so didn’t see him throw the glove. Is there video?
I was listening to the game so didn’t see him throw the glove. Is there video?
are you telling me the damn guy threw his glove out of anger about the HR after the outing and hurt himself? Pete says it was "coming out of the game"
Hahahaha what. I'm laughing because I don't know what else to do. This would only be more perfect if he stepped on a lego.
I hope Thornburg gets ready soon.
I hope Thornburg gets ready soon.
that has to be one of the most infuriating things as a fan. although maybe it was a matter of time anyways.
Meanwhile, Thornburg isn't throwing the rest of the week due to a sharp decline in velo last outing...
I'm not mad. I'm laughing at him. (obviously hurts the team. but that's cause for his teammates to get mad and push his car into the harbor).
You wear it on your left hand. You should throw it with your left arm.
Rocket scientists not these men are.
Once again.....another potential roster crunch works itself out.
Glad we still have a loaded minor league system to make a trade. Carson should be ashamed of himself. All that work trying to get back from the injury and now this..
As stupid as the circumstances are for how the injury occurred, the fact remains that injuries happen and they're never intentional. If it wasn't this, it probably would be something else (with Smith or some other pitcher). If there's one thing this team isn't especially thin on, it's relievers. There's still Workman and Walden and Scott and Poyner with big league experience and others on the 40-man without. They can weather this one.
In all likelihood, Smith was probably already injured and the glove throwing just exacerbated it to the point where they needed the MRI where damage was seen or it was a ticking time bomb and the glove throw was just the last straw.
And the Royals do that because......?
If they were to move Herrara, and no doubt he's a prime deadline prize for some contender, they're going to want more useful pieces than two guys they have to put on their 25-man roster whether they have a need for them or not. There will be better offers for the Royals to consider than that.
It also makes no sense for a team with a valuable trade chip like Herrera to deal him now, as opposed to two months from now, when more teams' Carson Smiths (Carsons Smith?) will have blown up and the market for relievers will get hot like it does every July.
Let's just all hope Kimbrel's velocity drop is just a blip. Still a potentially strong bullpen if he can be an elite closer.
Let's just all hope Kimbrel's velocity drop is just a blip. Still a potentially strong bullpen if he can be an elite closer.
I believe Cora when he says that Velazquez has been pitching hurt or he would have used him more. He wants him to get better for the long haul.
You are correct. Forgot about Workman. Its just ridiculous and my emotions were hyped. Almost sublaxed my shoulder throwing my sandwich in the trash
Not really a high whiff guy, but I wonder if something could be worked out for Brad Ziegler
From Pete Abraham...Smith suggested he may have had some fatigue in his shoulder from all the work so far this year (after a year+ off). Ticking time bomb is right, not that that doesn't describe every single shoulder that has ever thrown a pitch.
That’s a lisfranc injury just waiting to happen!
And anyone who knows the truth about Allan Craig, and whether his foot injury actually had to do with a black 2x4 block and a darkened room, please step forward now.
Arm fatigue from all the work?? Give me a break with that crap, Carson. He's pitched back to back days 3 times this year and 2 of them have come in the past week. 14.1 IP in 18 appearances over the first 41 games. This is why I've said you can't count on him to be a big part of the bullpen.