maufman said:Obvious SSS issues aside, that's a 25% success rate (Powe, Davis, and six scrubs). Not coincidentally, the two hits pre-date KG's arrival, the last time the C's had decent draft position in the second round; if the Philly pick converts to two second rounder, at least one (and probably both) of those picks will be earlier than the C's have picked in recent tears. So your analysis suggests they have at least a 50/50 shot of landing a useful player -- which is probably about the same chance as they'd have with a single 1st rounder in the mid-late teens, albeit with a lesser chance of lucking into someone special.
From 2002-2012 (eleven drafts), there's been 69 guys who have been drafted in the 2nd and played 3000 minutes in their career (I picked that kind of arbitrarily; doing the math it is equivalent to 62 full games).
Of them...
32 went with picks 30-39
28 went with picks 40-49
9 went with picks 50-60
So I guess its not so much as the beginning of the round is the best place to pick, but the end of the round is death knell. That means that 9 out of the 121 people who were drafted in that range (7%) manage 62 games worth of ball in their careers.