Bullpen 2017
- Thread starter nvalvo
- Start date
Dombrowski's prototypical bullpen seems to have materialized:
Closer: one fireballer (with a secondary pitch), who won't be used as a relief ace unless it's for a 4-out save in the middle of the 8th;
Setup: one fastball-slider control artist. Reed is a RHP, but has no split. He just doesn't walk anybody, so he won't be walking the leadoff batter in the 8th inning. Addison, don't prove me wrong.
Stable: young, durable, hard-throwing right-handed relievers. Barnes, Boyer, Hembree, Kelly and Workman are listed in alphabetical order, because they are interchangeable, even if Boyer isn't young anymore. Abad is the same, but he's left-handed. Kelly could be a groundball specialist. Robby Scott might be back for LOOGY duties when the next hamstring pops. The Bucket is full of Taylors, Martins, and Ramirez.
Dominance, control, youth, durability, velocity... Maybe Dombrowski has built himself a good bullpen after all.
Closer: one fireballer (with a secondary pitch), who won't be used as a relief ace unless it's for a 4-out save in the middle of the 8th;
Setup: one fastball-slider control artist. Reed is a RHP, but has no split. He just doesn't walk anybody, so he won't be walking the leadoff batter in the 8th inning. Addison, don't prove me wrong.
Stable: young, durable, hard-throwing right-handed relievers. Barnes, Boyer, Hembree, Kelly and Workman are listed in alphabetical order, because they are interchangeable, even if Boyer isn't young anymore. Abad is the same, but he's left-handed. Kelly could be a groundball specialist. Robby Scott might be back for LOOGY duties when the next hamstring pops. The Bucket is full of Taylors, Martins, and Ramirez.
Dominance, control, youth, durability, velocity... Maybe Dombrowski has built himself a good bullpen after all.
They need to work with Scott to change his position on the rubber and his angle of delivery. He was not making it uncomfortable for lefties to face him during his most recent cup of coffee.
I've been wondering if he might try and find a true death on lefties LOOGY to complete the pen this month; ala Mike Myers who was a waiver deal I believe.
The current bullpen:
Kimbrel: 1.48 era, 0.68 whip, 16.6 k/9
Barnes: 3.33 era, 1.11 whip, 10.5 k/9
Reed: 2.56 era, 1.08 whip, 8.9 k/9 (both leagues)
Workman: 1.86 era, 1.08 whip, 8.4 k/9
Hembree: 3.44 era, 1.39 whip, 9.6 k/9
Kelly: 1.49 era, 1.10 whip, 6.4 k/9
Abad: 3.06 era, 1.14 whip, 7.0 k/9
That's a pretty kick-ass pen right now. The offense has been greatly improved by the additions of Nunez and Devers. In a similar way, the bullpen has been improved by the additions of Reed and Workman.
EDIT: Hoping and assuming the Sox make the playoffs, it will be interesting to see the composition of the bullpen. Hoping all the starters are back healthy, that's six guys (Sale, Porcello, Rodriguez, Pomeranz, Price, Fister) but they only need four for the playoffs. Do two of those guys just get left off entirely? Or do they bump one of them down to the pen, but if so, which of the current bullpen guys is gone? I suppose these things have a way of working themselves out. And Fister seems like an obvious first casualty, but after that??
Kimbrel: 1.48 era, 0.68 whip, 16.6 k/9
Barnes: 3.33 era, 1.11 whip, 10.5 k/9
Reed: 2.56 era, 1.08 whip, 8.9 k/9 (both leagues)
Workman: 1.86 era, 1.08 whip, 8.4 k/9
Hembree: 3.44 era, 1.39 whip, 9.6 k/9
Kelly: 1.49 era, 1.10 whip, 6.4 k/9
Abad: 3.06 era, 1.14 whip, 7.0 k/9
That's a pretty kick-ass pen right now. The offense has been greatly improved by the additions of Nunez and Devers. In a similar way, the bullpen has been improved by the additions of Reed and Workman.
EDIT: Hoping and assuming the Sox make the playoffs, it will be interesting to see the composition of the bullpen. Hoping all the starters are back healthy, that's six guys (Sale, Porcello, Rodriguez, Pomeranz, Price, Fister) but they only need four for the playoffs. Do two of those guys just get left off entirely? Or do they bump one of them down to the pen, but if so, which of the current bullpen guys is gone? I suppose these things have a way of working themselves out. And Fister seems like an obvious first casualty, but after that??
They might choose Pomeranz instead of Rodriguez. He has more experience relieving and was pretty good last year in that role for them. But he's been terrific as a starter so...who knows.
Rotation: Sale, Porcello, Price, Rodriguez
Bullpen: Pomeranz, Reed, Abad/Scott, Kelly, Kimbrel, Workman, Barnes, Hembree
Gives them two lefties, multiple power arms, and two guys who are basically closers (Reed/Kimbrel).
Or really change it up and have Price in the bullpen.
While the discussion is more than a little premature . . .
I can't possibly imagine that Pomeranz goes to the bullpen in a 4-starter scenario. He was there last year only because he was hurt and ineffective. He's their 2nd best starter right now.
The rest depends on Price's health (and I suppose whether that health means he's better able to go one inning/20 pitches frequently or 5 innings/75-90 pitches with rest, if at all).
And whether they need Abad or Scott depends on whether the team they are facing has tough LHHs that wont get pinch-hit for.
As is usually the case with roster squeezes, much of this will take care of itself.
I can't possibly imagine that Pomeranz goes to the bullpen in a 4-starter scenario. He was there last year only because he was hurt and ineffective. He's their 2nd best starter right now.
The rest depends on Price's health (and I suppose whether that health means he's better able to go one inning/20 pitches frequently or 5 innings/75-90 pitches with rest, if at all).
And whether they need Abad or Scott depends on whether the team they are facing has tough LHHs that wont get pinch-hit for.
As is usually the case with roster squeezes, much of this will take care of itself.
Most likely they'd have an 8-person pen. Here's what I'd do. 7 spots are easy.
Kimbrel
Reed
Barnes
Kelly
Workman
Hembree
Abad
The last spot comes down to whether you want another lefty in Scott or a true long man such as Porcello or Fister. I think it's a lock that the top 3 in the rotation is Sale, Pomeranz, and Rodriguez. If Price comes back healthy there's your other starter. Yes, there are 4 lefties but that's also the 4 best pitchers. My thought is that Porcello should be the 8th spot in the pen in case there's an injury to a starter or if a starter blows up he can eat innings. I don't think he's earned a spot in the playoff rotation but I also don't think he should be left off the roster either.
Kimbrel
Reed
Barnes
Kelly
Workman
Hembree
Abad
The last spot comes down to whether you want another lefty in Scott or a true long man such as Porcello or Fister. I think it's a lock that the top 3 in the rotation is Sale, Pomeranz, and Rodriguez. If Price comes back healthy there's your other starter. Yes, there are 4 lefties but that's also the 4 best pitchers. My thought is that Porcello should be the 8th spot in the pen in case there's an injury to a starter or if a starter blows up he can eat innings. I don't think he's earned a spot in the playoff rotation but I also don't think he should be left off the roster either.
That's a good point about Porcello. He's probably been their 5th most effective starter. But he has taken the ball every time and has had only 1 game where he murdered the pen. There's time for Rodriguez go on an injury free run to sew up the spot.
Man, you know you are blessed with starting pitching when you're having a legitimate discussion of whether the reigning Cy Young award winner should make your playoff rotation, or if your second best starter to date should become the left handed relief ace instead.
I sense a real run coming this month reminiscent of the 2004 team.
I sense a real run coming this month reminiscent of the 2004 team.
They certainly have the pitching to make a real run that's for sure. And normally we'd say that "pitching wins championships". Hopefully for the Red Sox, that adage holds true.
Starters: 4.04 era, 7th in MLB
Relievers: 2.93 era, 1st in MLB
Would our opponent's LHP/RHP splits be a factor? The Yankees, for example, have a pronounced weakness v. LHP (.795 to .709 OPS), whereas HOU's split is less extreme (.866 to .833) and CLE's is basically neutral (.771 to .773).
If we were playing a team more like ourselves (.739 to .765) wouldn't we consider starting Porcello in place of EdRo?
To me, I would rather put out the 4 best starters we have rather than put a worse pitcher out there just because of the split. In Porcello's case, he really doesn't have a split this year(.828 OPS vs. RHB/.826 vs. LHB) and E-Rod is actually a reverse split. He is much better vs RHB(.697 OPS) than LHB(.939 OPS).
I think it is too early to even discuss right now. Porcello has been improved in his last 6-8 starts. If he finishes the year pitching like he has during that time, I think we will all want him starting a playoff game.
Edit: last 8
53 IP (6 2/3 IP)
47K / 10 BB
50 H
4.08 ERA
. 245 AVG / .291 OBP / .466 SLG / .757 OPS
.268 BABIP
Only negative (which has been his Achilles all year) is the HR - 10 in those 53 IP. He has suppressed OBP lately but is still giving up bombs.
Edit: last 8
53 IP (6 2/3 IP)
47K / 10 BB
50 H
4.08 ERA
. 245 AVG / .291 OBP / .466 SLG / .757 OPS
.268 BABIP
Only negative (which has been his Achilles all year) is the HR - 10 in those 53 IP. He has suppressed OBP lately but is still giving up bombs.
I guess I'm thinking in cases where it's close to a 50/50 call, as I think it may be with Porcello v. Rodriguez (at this point, anyway). But yeah, the pitcher's splits would clearly have to be factored in as well. Didn't know about EdRo's strong reverse split, thanks for that.
Either way, if we and the MFY somehow make it past HOU/CLE and into the ALCS (a big if, obviously), that .709 v. LHP looks pretty appealing.
Being 7th in MLB in an unadjusted stat like ERA when you play in an AL division with four hitters' parks — and play your home games in one of them! — is pretty amazing.
The rotation is 4th in MLB (and first in the AL) in ERA-, behind LAD, ARI, and WAS.
Frightening that the Sox would consider a pitcher for the postseason roster (should we get there) who has allowed a higher OPS than every single member of his team is hitting - except Devers and Nunez (SSS). Also he just gave up 2 gopher balls in 3 batters to the Rays, after shutting them out for 5 innings. The fear of sudden implosion is very high with Porcello.
Yep, he pitched very well, set down 14 straight, kept the ball out of the middle of the plate and looked like 2016 Porcello.
And then from the 6th inning he looked like 2017 Porcello again.
One game is an extremely small sample, you're right. And he has been pitching much better his past few starts, as stated above.
But which Porcello is closest to the true one - the guy with 28 HRs allowed and it's only August 9th, or the guy who pitched an immaculate 5th inning after allowing only 1 hit the first 4 innings?
Edited for clarity.
And then from the 6th inning he looked like 2017 Porcello again.
One game is an extremely small sample, you're right. And he has been pitching much better his past few starts, as stated above.
But which Porcello is closest to the true one - the guy with 28 HRs allowed and it's only August 9th, or the guy who pitched an immaculate 5th inning after allowing only 1 hit the first 4 innings?
Edited for clarity.
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Or maybe instead of looking at two innings yesterday, or the season as a whole, we look at his trend. His last 9 starts have now been pretty solid. Not Cy, but not shit either. That's probably who he really is at this point.
59 IP (nearly 6 2/3 per start)
54 H
54 K
12 BB
1.12 WHIP
3.97 ERA
.239 BA
.287 OBP
.469 SLG
.756 OPS
.259 BABIP
12 HR
He is pitching well despite the HR. But they are a problem.
The hit rate + the low BABIP is still a little concerning. If that BABIP normalizes and the HR rate doesn't decline we could be right back to first half '17 Rick. BB/K ratio is encouraging, though. I'm not sure what to think entirely, 9 starts is still a somewhat small sample size but it also isn't.
I still trust him less than Pomeranz at this point.
Another way of thinking about it is that this version of Porcello turns everyone into early-career Jeff Francoeur: low OBP, few walks, tons of Ks, considerable pop.
EDIT: Sorry, I'm a $#@%ing idiot. Porcello's HR rate with 1 man on is indeed somewhat better than normal, but his rates with 2 and 3 men on are worse than normal, because I misplaced the decimal in converting them to percentages. His overall HR rate with men on base is about league-average. Carry on.
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I think they are a problem despite the walk rate because power plays in the playoffs. I think there was a study done about teams that hit homers and winning in the playoffs. Maybe someone can back me on that.
I trust him less than Sale, a healthy price, and Pomeranz, but I probably trust him more than EdRo.
I trust him less than Sale, a healthy price, and Pomeranz, but I probably trust him more than EdRo.
I would still start Rodriguez in the playoffs with Porcello backing him up in case of trouble. If EdRo blows up, Porcello has a good chance of eating 3-4 innings and keeping the team within striking distance.
They could always piggy back three or four innings each too, considering batters get better swings the 2nd and 3rd time through lineups. Going from righty to lefty also screws up batting order match ups. This is going to be a staff that only needs 6 innings from its starters given the bullpen.
It's unconventional, but I'm surprised it isn't done more often.
Plus it's not like E-Rod has seized a spot at this point either.
It's unconventional, but I'm surprised it isn't done more often.
Plus it's not like E-Rod has seized a spot at this point either.
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My favorite part about the staff is the effect Sale has on all of this. Pomeranz, Price and Porcello are still all unproven quantities in the playoffs (Sale too, of course, but I'm not too worried there). I know teams and managers will downplay talk of an "ace" but the reality is that, compared to last year, the rotation looks more like a group that could be strong down the stretch and into the playoffs because of the reduced reliance on those three. I realize this is all speculation about the inner workings of a bunch of people I really don't know (and Price still seems like a psychological mess) but I suppose the numbers alone make it clear this is a stronger position group than last year.
Interesting numbers there for sure.
Is there a significant enough number of these baserunner states to make this anything more than noise?
If it is significant then the two possible factors I can think of
a) Porcello "bears down" more with runners on base. Maybe throws more ground ball inducing pitches than when empty?
b) windup vs stretch.
Pom, Price, and EdRo are all ahead of Porcello on FIP, WHIP, H9, HR9, and SO9. However, Porcello is ahead of them on IP, BB9, and SO/BB. So yeah, Porcello is a horse that walks the fewest of them and honestly isn't having a terrible season discounting his salary (ERA+ of 98), but unless there are health issues with the others (a big if) or that trend changes, I'd think Porcello is last in line. But, Price isn't back yet and Pom and EdRo are possibly headed for career highs in IP, so Rick will possibly start a game (or games) if the Sox make the second season, but that may depend on how many games there are too.
There might be, but there's a bigger problem than that. (See edit to original post above.)
The out of nowhere reappearance of Workman's fastball is a really nice addition to the pen.
http://www.weei.com/blogs/rob-bradford/best-red-sox-story-almost-nobody-talking-about
http://www.weei.com/blogs/rob-bradford/best-red-sox-story-almost-nobody-talking-about
Let's look at Farrell's options with Gregorius up with first and second and no out up a run in the 8th:
Reed: Had already given up two runs and put two on. The Hicks HR was a total Yankee Stadium special though (7% hit probability and 2% HR) and he's generally a good pitcher who's fully capable of getting a strikeout and lefties out. I wouldn't have minded him staying in, but pulling him wasn't the worst decision in the world.
Abad: 31% K-rate, 15/4 K/BB and .163/.229/.279 line to LHH in 48 PA this year. Gregorius has also been much weaker against lefties this year (78 wRC+ vs. 138). A completely defensible move for one batter since Gregorius wasn't going to be PH for.
Workman: Emerging as a real late-inning option. Lefties have hit him a bit but he does have a 7/0 K/BB against them in 30 PA. I wouldn't have minded him either, but I can see Farrell wanting to stay away from this matchup with the short porch.
Kimbrel: I don't think it's a stretch that he should've started warming after the Hicks HR. He'd only pitched one inning in the last four days and this is certainly a night where he could've gotten at least four outs. It's entirely feasible to have him ready in that spot to try and put out the fire in the 8th and then use Workman in the 9th. Hell, Andy Green brought his closer Brad Hand in yesterday in the 7th in the middle of the count.
Kelly: Has made one appearance since coming off the DL. .426 OBP to LHH and a 10/12 K/BB against them in 54 PA. Very little chance of a strikeout (especially with Gregorius' contact tendency) so you're banking on him hitting it at an infielder.
Farrell chose Kelly likely because Gregorius was 1-6 off him, a completely worthless number. Gregorius didn't hit it hard, but bloops happen a lot more often when you can't miss a bat to save your life despite a 100+ MPH fastball. He brought in Joe Kelly in a high-leverage spot to face a lefty with only four superior options available but hey there's nothing to see here, move along - he's doing a terrific job.
Reed: Had already given up two runs and put two on. The Hicks HR was a total Yankee Stadium special though (7% hit probability and 2% HR) and he's generally a good pitcher who's fully capable of getting a strikeout and lefties out. I wouldn't have minded him staying in, but pulling him wasn't the worst decision in the world.
Abad: 31% K-rate, 15/4 K/BB and .163/.229/.279 line to LHH in 48 PA this year. Gregorius has also been much weaker against lefties this year (78 wRC+ vs. 138). A completely defensible move for one batter since Gregorius wasn't going to be PH for.
Workman: Emerging as a real late-inning option. Lefties have hit him a bit but he does have a 7/0 K/BB against them in 30 PA. I wouldn't have minded him either, but I can see Farrell wanting to stay away from this matchup with the short porch.
Kimbrel: I don't think it's a stretch that he should've started warming after the Hicks HR. He'd only pitched one inning in the last four days and this is certainly a night where he could've gotten at least four outs. It's entirely feasible to have him ready in that spot to try and put out the fire in the 8th and then use Workman in the 9th. Hell, Andy Green brought his closer Brad Hand in yesterday in the 7th in the middle of the count.
Kelly: Has made one appearance since coming off the DL. .426 OBP to LHH and a 10/12 K/BB against them in 54 PA. Very little chance of a strikeout (especially with Gregorius' contact tendency) so you're banking on him hitting it at an infielder.
Farrell chose Kelly likely because Gregorius was 1-6 off him, a completely worthless number. Gregorius didn't hit it hard, but bloops happen a lot more often when you can't miss a bat to save your life despite a 100+ MPH fastball. He brought in Joe Kelly in a high-leverage spot to face a lefty with only four superior options available but hey there's nothing to see here, move along - he's doing a terrific job.
I can see the argument between Workman vs. Kelly but the other two are a stretch.
Putting all their eggs in the Kimbrel basket seems rash when they have a 4.5 game lead. He's not being used as a fireman either, no matter how much we want it to happen, or how much sense it makes to us. He's been 4 outs at most since early in the season when Farrell reined him in more.
Abad has been the mop up guy all season regardless of how well he has pitched. Maybe he'll get more trust if they decide they need a LOOGY, but he hasn't been a high leverage guy other than extra innings. Kelly has banked more trust with Farrell, but that could change.
Basically two guys who have done well most of the season, didn't pitch well tonight.
Putting all their eggs in the Kimbrel basket seems rash when they have a 4.5 game lead. He's not being used as a fireman either, no matter how much we want it to happen, or how much sense it makes to us. He's been 4 outs at most since early in the season when Farrell reined him in more.
Abad has been the mop up guy all season regardless of how well he has pitched. Maybe he'll get more trust if they decide they need a LOOGY, but he hasn't been a high leverage guy other than extra innings. Kelly has banked more trust with Farrell, but that could change.
Basically two guys who have done well most of the season, didn't pitch well tonight.
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I wasn't asking for Kimbrel to go more than four outs. Given that he has gone four outs multiple times though, it's feasible that he could've started warming after the Hicks HR. Once Sanchez and Judge reached, he would've been ready to go. Ideally, he gets three outs in the 8th while keeping the lead and Workman gets the 9th.
Abad has mostly been a mop-up guy. That being said, he's been excellent against lefties this year and pretty good for his career. With Scott being sent down, there's an opportunity for him to grab that role. We don't know much about him in high-leverage spots this year, but we do know Kelly can't get lefties out and is very unlikely to get a strikeout.
He also could've simply left Reed in. He was struggling, but he's a much better pitcher than Kelly and even more so against lefties. You just don't let Kelly pitch to lefties in high-leverage spots if you have any other options available. Farrell had four.
It absolutely is the right way to use him, I agree. Just as the wrong way to use Kimbrel was in his 3 run low leverage save against the White Sox after having pitched the last two nights. I just get the feeling Kimbrel is resistant to the idea of not being a traditional closer and it's not all on Farrell. I'm happy to be wrong, and maybe it's different in the playoffs when save accumulation doesn't matter.
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Its a mix of both....
From the Kimbrel thread in June
Kimbrel is not going to be pitching in the 8th inning for a while. So...
http://www.weei.com/blogs/rob-bradford/why-craig-kimbrel-isnt-pitching-8th-inning?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Yes... I do. Bottom line...stick with the guys. Reed is a joke under the lights. He was scared to death. Analyze it as much as you can. Bottom line we had that game. Kelly isn't pitching us out of that inning. Reed cost us a couple of potentially good players. He is not the guy I want to see in late September. Look at his eyes. He was a deer in headlights. Two more games that will determine a lot this weekend.
What the crap?!!?!^^^^^^^^
Anyhow..... Reed clearly is having some problems transitioning to a new team. It's not the first time that good relievers switch teams and have a stretch of poor performance. I would have definitely brought Kimbrell in. That was a game that had some serious leverage attached to it and losses like that can hurt momentum and morale and shift it to the other team.
I still think Kelly is a good 8th inning choice but only with a clean start. He's not the guy to come in and kill a threat. Farrell is just not a good bullpen manager and if we get into the playoffs and in situations like last night, I have zero confidence we'll emerge with a lead intact in the late innings.
I feel that starting the 8th Farrell made every wrong decision and the only one that is debatable is bringing Reed in to start the 8th.
Anyhow..... Reed clearly is having some problems transitioning to a new team. It's not the first time that good relievers switch teams and have a stretch of poor performance. I would have definitely brought Kimbrell in. That was a game that had some serious leverage attached to it and losses like that can hurt momentum and morale and shift it to the other team.
I still think Kelly is a good 8th inning choice but only with a clean start. He's not the guy to come in and kill a threat. Farrell is just not a good bullpen manager and if we get into the playoffs and in situations like last night, I have zero confidence we'll emerge with a lead intact in the late innings.
I feel that starting the 8th Farrell made every wrong decision and the only one that is debatable is bringing Reed in to start the 8th.
If this was the playoffs, and it was do or die, we would 100% have seen Kimbrel brought in to put out Reed's fire. But it was August, with 47 more games to play, and while nursing a 4.5 game lead in the division. Yes, division rival, closest chaser, blah blah blah. Can't treat every game like it is Game 7, or they'll never get to Game 7.
Amazing these kind of criticisms only come up when the guys trusted most to do the job fail to do it.
It's not Farrell's fault Reed spit the bit. It is his fault that he brought in the fifth-best option to face Gregorius. Bringing in Kelly to face a lefty in a high-leverage spot is simply indefensible.
Reed needs a beard. And some scars. Maybe an eyepatch to give those hitters second thoughts.
Which would make you about the only MLB manager currently working that would have brought in his closer with none out in the 8th inning on the road. I'm not saying its a bad idea, just that the criticism is better directed at modern bullpen usage, not Farrell.
Farrell has been in the playoffs twice, and neither time did he limit the closer to the 9th.
So you can make your judgment about what he'll do in the playoffs with his closer based on what he has done in the playoffs or based on a game in August.
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Managers need to have their closers ready for a set of batters whether they come up in the 8th or 9th
Sanchez, Judge and Didi should have been all Kimbrel.
If u want Reed to start the 8th great. And in fact if he gets the first two guys and you want to let him try to finish the inning with Sanchez.
But if any of the first two get on you should have Kimbrel ready starting with Sanchez
Sanchez, Judge and Didi should have been all Kimbrel.
If u want Reed to start the 8th great. And in fact if he gets the first two guys and you want to let him try to finish the inning with Sanchez.
But if any of the first two get on you should have Kimbrel ready starting with Sanchez
Find me any manager that has done that this year with the guy that has been tabbed "the closer."
That -- for better or worse -- is not how regular baseball is played these days.
Brad Hand came in to face Joey Votto not 48 hours ago in the 7th in the middle of the count. I agree that it was unnecessary to have Kimbrel warming to begin the 8th when you have a three-run lead and a legitimate reliever on the mound. However, once Hicks' HR landed he should've been warming. Or Abad. Or Workman. Anyone beside Kelly and Hembree would've been a defensible option to face Gregorius. The manager chose an indefensible one.