Bullpen 2017

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,084
This is at least partly true. It's also true that it was more of a statement about how well Barnes has been doing than Kimbrell, and part that if Thornburg and Smith come back healthy and as effective as advertised, this bullpen isn't just going to be a strength, it's going to be a force, especially if Joe Kelly continues to pitch well.
Having 2 guys, who can just absolutely lay waste on righties, in Hembree and Smith with Thornburg and Scott, who both destroy lefties... there are a lot of options there.

Also, the CURRENT Red Sox bullpen is the 4th hardest throwing bullpen in the majors.
 

mfried

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 23, 2005
1,680
Barnes and Hembree were both gassed last night to the breaking point, and the former almost lost the game to a slumping team. I'm afraid they both need two days of guaranteed rest. Abad looked amazingly useless though we know he was good in Minnesota. What's with that guy?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
Barnes and Hembree were both gassed last night to the breaking point, and the former almost lost the game to a slumping team. I'm afraid they both need two days of guaranteed rest. Abad looked amazingly useless though we know he was good in Minnesota. What's with that guy?
I thought bringing Barnes in in the 8th was head-scratching even without considering the rest issue. Four run lead, runner on 3rd, 2 outs, switch hitter at the plate who is slightly better vs RHP (this year's SSS notwithstanding), and you pull the lefty for a righty. I think you stick with Abad there since the worst thing that can happen is Morales turns it into a 2-run game.

For me, in a four run game, you don't need to go right to your best available guy for a four out "close". Seemed to me to be the time to try to finish the game the same way you finished off Friday night's loss...Abad in the 8th, Scott in the 9th. You bring Barnes in if the lead is actually threatened.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
Abad's a basically average relief pitcher, whose best use is as a L-R-L one inning guy.

Unfortunately, so far he's been used only to face the top of the opposing team's lineups, thus basically pitting average pitching against good hitters.

- 4/12 faced 1-2-3-4 batters (L-R-R-L)
- 4/14 faced 1-2-3-4-5 batters (L-L-R-L-R)
- 4/18 faced 9-1-2 batters (R-R-R)

The mediocre results should not be surprising. Actually, maybe it's a net positive thing he's only looked mediocre, rather than terrible.
 

107beers

New Member
Apr 17, 2017
6
Having 2 guys, who can just absolutely lay waste on righties, in Hembree and Smith with Thornburg and Scott, who both destroy lefties... there are a lot of options there.

Also, the CURRENT Red Sox bullpen is the 4th hardest throwing bullpen in the majors.
Agreed. Then throw in Barnes who yes gave up 3 last night but he was in need of rest so due to eventually allow his first run(s) of the season. And I would stick with Ben Taylor over abad any day from what we have seen out of each. Also Kelly has looked good.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,276
Brandon Workman may be an option down line for the BP

“@PawSox: Brandon Workman has struck out 5 of the 6 he’s faced in 2 perfect innings.

This season: 7 IP, 0 R, 10 K … only 2 base-runners allowed.”
 

Byrdbrain

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,588
Brandon Workman may be an option down line for the BP

“@PawSox: Brandon Workman has struck out 5 of the 6 he’s faced in 2 perfect innings.

This season: 7 IP, 0 R, 10 K … only 2 base-runners allowed.”
The results certainly look good so far but I've yet to hear a scouting report. It would be nice to hear his velocity it back instead of him getting by on guile, you would assume he wouldn't strike out 5 of 6 unless he had good stuff but anything can happen in a SSS.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,494
The results certainly look good so far but I've yet to hear a scouting report. It would be nice to hear his velocity it back instead of him getting by on guile, you would assume he wouldn't strike out 5 of 6 unless he had good stuff but anything can happen in a SSS.
Week ago it was up to 92.
"Brandon Workman now up to 1.1 innings of scoreless relief. Velo up to 92 mph. Could be an intriguing option for Boston's 'pen down the road."
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
A mixed outing for Kimbrel today (BS/W 2ip 5k/0bb but the 1 hit he gave up was a Solo shot) puts his season line at 9 ip, 4 hits, 2 er, 1 HRA, 17k/2bb and a whip of 0.67. Opponents slashing .125/.176/.250.
 

Adrian's Dome

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2010
4,424
Craig Kimbrel, 2017:

13.1 IP, 5H, 2ER, 1HR, 2BB, 24K. That's a 1.35 ERA, .53 WHIP, and a BAA of .111. Heart attack closer, indeed.
 

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,049
Florida
Craig Kimbrel, 2017:

13.1 IP, 5H, 2ER, 1HR, 2BB, 24K. That's a 1.35 ERA, .53 WHIP, and a BAA of .111. Heart attack closer, indeed.
Meh. Should of just saved some money by signing a Tony Sipp, and then held tight on the prospect package until we landed one of those other already established/sub-30yo/3 years of control/super-stud upside closer guys that are always lined up for the taking when you want/need to go out and trade for one.

Hopefully he spends the next 2 years proving that theory wrong though.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
Craig Kimbrel, 2017:

13.1 IP, 5H, 2ER, 1HR, 2BB, 24K. That's a 1.35 ERA, .53 WHIP, and a BAA of .111. Heart attack closer, indeed.
To add to this....

13 appearances:
- 8 completely clean (retired every batter he faced)
- 11 scoreless
- 4 times struck out the side
- 8 times struck out 2+ batters per inning
- 48 batters faced, 24 k
- only 1 time has he allowed more than 1 baserunner
- averaging 98.0 mph on his fastball (per fangraphs), the highest in his career
 

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
26,993
Newton
That is the Kimbrel DD traded for. As we wait for Price to (hopefully?) return, Wright to sort his health/pitching issues out and to get Thornburg and Smith back, having guy like that at the end is absolutely huge. Kimbrel will be a big part of this team being able to stay in it until everything else sorts itself out.
 

johnnywayback

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 8, 2004
1,421
Meh. Should of just saved some money by signing a Tony Sipp, and then held tight on the prospect package until we landed one of those other already established/sub-30yo/3 years of control/super-stud upside closer guys that are always lined up for the taking when you want/need to go out and trade for one.

Hopefully he spends the next 2 years proving that theory wrong though.
Craig Kimbrel has been awesome this year, fun to watch, the absolute best-case scenario. In fact, according to Fangraphs, Kimbrel has already produced 0.8 WAR so far in 2017.

Which is exactly the same number Manuel Margot has produced so far in 2017.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
That is the Kimbrel DD traded for. As we wait for Price to (hopefully?) return, Wright to sort his health/pitching issues out and to get Thornburg and Smith back, having guy like that at the end is absolutely huge. Kimbrel will be a big part of this team being able to stay in it until everything else sorts itself out.
If Kimbrel continues like this, he's on his way to the second best season of his phenomenal career. His 2012 season was just beyond insane: 1.01 era, 0.78 fip, 0.654 whip, 16.7 k/9
 

Adrian's Dome

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2010
4,424
Which is exactly the same number Manuel Margot has produced so far in 2017.
On an extremely small and unreliable defensive sample size, making Margot's number essentially meaningless. Nice try though.

Past that, it doesn't even past the smell test: there's not one major league team that would rather have Manuel Margot than Craig Kimbrel right now, and no, I don't need a source for that.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,715
Past that, it doesn't even past the smell test: there's not one major league team that would rather have Manuel Margot than Craig Kimbrel right now, and no, I don't need a source for that.
I mean, it doesn't matter at all, but that's not true. The Yankees have Chapman and Betances and would choose Margot in a second if given the option, IMO anyway.
 

Adrian's Dome

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2010
4,424
I mean, it doesn't matter at all, but that's not true. The Yankees have Chapman and Betances and would choose Margot in a second if given the option, IMO anyway.
I highly doubt that, but regardless, the greater point is that there is no way Margot is as valuable as Kimbrel so far in 2017.
 

johnnywayback

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 8, 2004
1,421
I highly doubt that, but regardless, the greater point is that there is no way Margot is as valuable as Kimbrel so far in 2017.
I actually think there isn't a single team in baseball right now who would take Kimbrel over Margot (I would have said the Nats until Eaton got hurt), but that's probably an argument best had in the thread about the trade.

For now, though, I'll just restate: It's literally and actually and thoroughly true that Margot is as valuable as Kimbrel so far in 2017 (in fact, Margot's now up to 0.9). That's what WAR measures: how valuable a player has been. It's not an assertion that Margot is as good as Kimbrel, or even a prediction that he'll be as valuable going forward. It's just a reflection of the fact that a) Margot has been really, really good so far and, more importantly, b) players who participate in only 4% of a team's defensive innings are generally not that valuable.
 

AB in DC

OG Football Writing
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2002
13,621
Springfield, VA
Anyone else surprised that Workman got send back down to AAA after his strong performance last night? I was hoping with his track record he'd stick around a bit longer. I guess Robbie Ross is eligible to come back up now, yes?
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,096
A portion of Margot's fWAR calculation is defensive WAR, which is meaningless at this point in the season.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
12,408
Anyone else surprised that Workman got send back down to AAA after his strong performance last night? I was hoping with his track record he'd stick around a bit longer. I guess Robbie Ross is eligible to come back up now, yes?
He pitched 3 innings so he'd be unavailable for a couple days. They need a long man for the time being.
 

shaggydog2000

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2007
11,482
A portion of Margot's fWAR calculation is defensive WAR, which is meaningless at this point in the season.
His offensive production has been below average, with poor patience and power. His value has come from baserunning, which can be fluky over a 100 at-bats or so, and overwhelmingly from defense, which we know can take more than a year to really be reliable. Maybe he is great, but I don't think his WAR is reliable evidence yet.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
23,679
Miami (oh, Miami!)
I actually think there isn't a single team in baseball right now who would take Kimbrel over Margot (I would have said the Nats until Eaton got hurt), but that's probably an argument best had in the thread about the trade.

For now, though, I'll just restate: It's literally and actually and thoroughly true that Margot is as valuable as Kimbrel so far in 2017 (in fact, Margot's now up to 0.9). That's what WAR measures: how valuable a player has been. It's not an assertion that Margot is as good as Kimbrel, or even a prediction that he'll be as valuable going forward. It's just a reflection of the fact that a) Margot has been really, really good so far and, more importantly, b) players who participate in only 4% of a team's defensive innings are generally not that valuable.
In addition to the other well thought out points, WAR is not infinity fungible in the real world. Margot's hypothetical performance for the Sox in 2017 would not be as valuable to the Sox as the actual upgrade of Pawsox Pitcher X to Kimbrel.

(In no small part because Margot would be in the minors. But who do you displace to play Margot - JBJ, 10D, Mookie? Hanley?)
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
Past that, it doesn't even past the smell test: there's not one major league team that would rather have Manuel Margot than Craig Kimbrel right now, and no, I don't need a source for that.
Ridiculous. What good is an elite expensive closer for a rebuilding team? Every rebuilding team needs cost controlled young players with upside. If the Angels, A's, Blue Jays (assuming they'd be out of the race) or Twins - to name a few - had Kimbrel, he would be cashed out by July. and may even net a better package than what the Padres got.

If you want to argue who is the better player right now, then fine.
 
Last edited:

phenweigh

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 8, 2005
1,379
Brewster, MA
Anyone else surprised that Workman got send back down to AAA after his strong performance last night? I was hoping with his track record he'd stick around a bit longer. I guess Robbie Ross is eligible to come back up now, yes?
Not surprised, but I thought Taylor vs. Workman for next send down was a tough call. Ross is eligible, but I expect a position player to be called up.

He pitched 3 innings so he'd be unavailable for a couple days. They need a long man for the time being.
You may be right, but with ERod, Porcello, and Sale slated to start the next games before an off-day, I think they can live without an eight-man pen.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,239
Anyone else surprised that Workman got send back down to AAA after his strong performance last night? I was hoping with his track record he'd stick around a bit longer. I guess Robbie Ross is eligible to come back up now, yes?

3 innings last night makes him pretty useless for at least 2 days, maybe 3? I think that was the driving factor. But I think showing he could get MLB hitters out means we'll see him again after the first-1/3-of-the-season shakeout.
 

AB in DC

OG Football Writing
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2002
13,621
Springfield, VA
True, but going back to Pawtucket means he can't come back for ten days (barring injury). Even if he's only available for seven of those ten days I think he's worth having around.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,096
True, but going back to Pawtucket means he can't come back for ten days (barring injury). Even if he's only available for seven of those ten days I think he's worth having around.
Getting through the next 10 days without injury/illness? I'll take that for $10 please.
 

Adrian's Dome

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2010
4,424
Ridiculous. What good is an elite expensive closer for a rebuilding team? Every rebuilding team needs cost controlled young players with upside. If the Angels, A's, Blue Jays (assuming they'd be out of the race) or Twins - to name a few - had Kimbrel, he would be cashed out by July. and may even net a better package than what the Padres got.

If you want to argue who is the better player right now, then fine.
Yeah. The rebuilding teams would take Kimbrel and trade him for likely a better player than Margot is.

Hence the words "value" and "right now."
 

Byrdbrain

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,588
Anyone else surprised that Workman got send back down to AAA after his strong performance last night? I was hoping with his track record he'd stick around a bit longer. I guess Robbie Ross is eligible to come back up now, yes?
Him going down was obvious once he started his third inning, they were heavy on relievers and had a short bench so someone needed to go. I'm no baseball genius but I was asking in the game thread while he was still pitching which position player was going to come up(I still don't know) when he got sent down.
I know the results were pretty good but it was hardly impressive. I guess he'll be fine as an arm with options but I'd be surprised if he is an effective reliever unless he can add a few mph.
 

Byrdbrain

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,588
I actually think there isn't a single team in baseball right now who would take Kimbrel over Margot (I would have said the Nats until Eaton got hurt), but that's probably an argument best had in the thread about the trade.

For now, though, I'll just restate: It's literally and actually and thoroughly true that Margot is as valuable as Kimbrel so far in 2017 (in fact, Margot's now up to 0.9). That's what WAR measures: how valuable a player has been. It's not an assertion that Margot is as good as Kimbrel, or even a prediction that he'll be as valuable going forward. It's just a reflection of the fact that a) Margot has been really, really good so far and, more importantly, b) players who participate in only 4% of a team's defensive innings are generally not that valuable.
You have lots more faith in the defensive component of WAR than the people who calculate it.
 

dhappy42

Straw Man
Oct 27, 2013
15,725
Michigan
Contributing to thread drift, but where, exactly would Margot play on the Red Sox? We already have what's perhaps baseball's best defensive outfield.
 

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,049
Florida
Contributing to thread drift, but where, exactly would Margot play on the Red Sox? We already have what's perhaps baseball's best defensive outfield.
If we are talking in terms beyond simply suggesting that a more valuable trade return other then Kimbrel was out there, one of him or Ben would of had to bring a 1B glove to ST (Hanley was ultimately slotting into full time DH regardless), and you never sign Moreland this winter.
 

koufax37

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
2,472
Yeah. The rebuilding teams would take Kimbrel and trade him for likely a better player than Margot is.

Hence the words "value" and "right now."
I was scrolling down to read everything before I wrote this exact point.

Exactly, I am here in San Diego where Margot is happily considered more useful than a closer for a 64 win team. But the reality is that Kimbrel is way more valuable to the Red Sox and their world series aspirations than Margot trying to crack the B-B-B outfield. And even if they falter, he is still so elite that his midseason trade value is almost certainly more than Margot, especially after

The Postseason of The Relievers (TM)

See what Chapman and Miller got the Yankees, and see how Kimbrel is still one of the most dominant pitchers of this generation. I'm not a fan of the three out closer value whether Kimbrel or Hoffman or Eck, but I look forward to us getting a chance to ride him hard this October.
 

charlieoscar

Member
Sep 28, 2014
1,339
Contributing to thread drift, but where, exactly would Margot play on the Red Sox? We already have what's perhaps baseball's best defensive outfield.
bb-ref has Team Advanced Fielding statistics in which they look at (among other things):
Single w/ runner on 1st
Single w/ runner on 2nd
Double w/ runner on 1st
Flyout with < 2 out, runner on 3rd
Flyout with < 2 out, runner on 2nd, then they look at Hold% and Kill% for the sum of those five categories.

For this season:
LF -- BOS/MLB -- Hold: 62.9%/66.0% Kill: 0.0%/1.8%
CF -- BOS/MLB -- Hold: 42.3%/46.6% Kill: 0.0%/1.3%
RF -- BOS/MLB -- Hold: 61.5%/47.2% Kill: 0.0%/2.5%


I don't think the throwing of B-B-B is always up to standard. There are problems with throwing to the wrong base, missing cut-off men, and particularly with Benintendi and Bradley a problem of keeping throws on line. While all three are fast and generally have good instincts for tracking balls, there are still instances where all three have trouble with judging the ball with relation to the fences. While Fenway Park does add its own foibles, not all of the misjudgments have happened there but I do feel that Benintendi has yet to become "Green Monster comfortable."

The question has been asked in this thread, Where would Margot fit? What could they get in trade for JBJ? And then you determine who fits better in LF/CF--Benintendi/Margot or Margot/Benintendi (hypothetically, of course).
 

dhappy42

Straw Man
Oct 27, 2013
15,725
Michigan
I was scrolling down to read everything before I wrote this exact point.

Exactly, I am here in San Diego where Margot is happily considered more useful than a closer for a 64 win team. But the reality is that Kimbrel is way more valuable to the Red Sox and their world series aspirations than Margot trying to crack the B-B-B outfield...
I'm in the pro-Kimbrel camp, but I don't think keeping Margot would have meant him trying to crack the B-B-B outfield. I think it have meant the Sox trading Beni or Bradley, with Young playing LF and Margot in the wings.

So, for me, the question boils down to: would you rather have Beni or Margot? Or since I think most people (in hindsight) would rather have Margot in the lineup than JBJ, would trading JBJ have returned value anywhere near that of Kimbrel? Don't think so.
 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
34,440
Haiku
Or since I think most people (in hindsight) would rather have Margot in the lineup than JBJ...
Huh? Bradley is the better defender, has more power, and hits from the left side. Why in the world would the Red Sox want Margot in the lineup instead?
 

shaggydog2000

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2007
11,482
bb-ref has Team Advanced Fielding statistics in which they look at (among other things):
Single w/ runner on 1st
Single w/ runner on 2nd
Double w/ runner on 1st
Flyout with < 2 out, runner on 3rd
Flyout with < 2 out, runner on 2nd, then they look at Hold% and Kill% for the sum of those five categories.

For this season:
LF -- BOS/MLB -- Hold: 62.9%/66.0% Kill: 0.0%/1.8%
CF -- BOS/MLB -- Hold: 42.3%/46.6% Kill: 0.0%/1.3%
RF -- BOS/MLB -- Hold: 61.5%/47.2% Kill: 0.0%/2.5%


I don't think the throwing of B-B-B is always up to standard. There are problems with throwing to the wrong base, missing cut-off men, and particularly with Benintendi and Bradley a problem of keeping throws on line. While all three are fast and generally have good instincts for tracking balls, there are still instances where all three have trouble with judging the ball with relation to the fences. While Fenway Park does add its own foibles, not all of the misjudgments have happened there but I do feel that Benintendi has yet to become "Green Monster comfortable."

The question has been asked in this thread, Where would Margot fit? What could they get in trade for JBJ? And then you determine who fits better in LF/CF--Benintendi/Margot or Margot/Benintendi (hypothetically, of course).
So by looking at these numbers, Betts is well above average in whatever a Hold is, and Bradley and Benintendi are within a few percentage points. Whatever a kill is appears to be exceptionally rare, making up 1-2.5% of events, so them have none could easily be a sample size issue this early in the season. And because of this evidence you find the outfield to be in need of Manuel Margot, although you post none of his numbers in this stat that I've never heard of being used as a figure of merit in the past, and suggest trading Bradley. To whom and for what you don't say. Possibly a closer?
 

dhappy42

Straw Man
Oct 27, 2013
15,725
Michigan
Huh? Bradley is the better defender, has more power, and hits from the left side. Why in the world would the Red Sox want Margot in the lineup instead?
Because he gets on base more often?

Seriously, I meant right now, while JBJ is scuffling, hitting .180 and Margot is leading off for SD. And by "most people" I didn't mean Red Sox management, but instead the gloom-and-doomers here who think all is lost because the team is only a game over .500 in early May. Still, even in that context, it's probably not "most people." I'll try to write with more exactitude. Mea culpa.

FWIW, as much as I love him, I'd trade JBJ straight up for Margot tomorrow if only because of age/upside/money/control. I'm not a JBJ basher, just think he's maddeningly streaky.