Bullpen 2017

Plympton91

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This, and...I suspect Farrell is thinking of leverage in more sophisticated terms than just inning. Last night Kelly faced Carter, Gardner, Sanchez, with Judge waiting if somebody gets on. Barnes faced Holliday, Castro and Hicks. Both pretty good groups of hitters, but which would you reserve your better reliever for?

The last time they were both used in the same game was May 29 vs. the White Sox, and very much the same deal: Kelly was brought in in the 7th to face the White Sox' 3-4-5-6 hitters, Barnes in the 8th to face the bottom of the order.

The time before that, May 17, Barnes was brought in in the 7th with the Sox trailing, faced one batter, and then when the Sox tied the score in the top of the 8th, Kelly was brought in to hold the lead.

The time before that, May 11, Kelly came in the 7th to face 3-4-5, and Barnes in the 8th to face 7-8-9.

As those dates show, Kelly and Barnes aren't actually being used in the same game very much, which suggests that Farrell sees them as filling essentially similar roles. But when they do appear in the same game, the recent record shows Farrell choosing Kelly to face tougher hitters and/or in higher-leverage situations.
Great analysis. Thanks. That really speaks well of Farrell.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Outside of Kimbrel, our 3 other main bullpen arms have been pretty lights out lately. That's a combined 35.2ip, 26h, 5er, 4bb/42k, 1.26 era. .204/.229/.315. K rate of 32.1%, BB rate of 3.1%.

Joe Kelly last 14 games: 13.0ip, 8h, 0er, 4bb/15k, 0.00era. .175/.245/.200 with a .267 BAbip against. 30.6% K rate.
Matt Barnes last 12 games: 12.0ip, 9 h, 3er, 0bb/17k, 2.25 era. .205/.205/.318 with a .333 BAbip against. 38.6% K rate.
Hembree last 10 games: 10.2ip, 9h, 2er, 0bb/10k 1.67 era. .231/.232/.462 with a .259 BAbip against. 25.6% K rate.

If Carson Smith and/or Thornburg actually provide something this year close to their career averages... It'll be a pretty sick pen. Barnes and Kelly have been amazing of late.
 
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HangingW/ScottCooper

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I'll still complain about the bullpen.

Edit: In all seriousness though - it's hard for me to argue with Dombrowski's moves this offseason. I would still like to see them take a flyer on Greg Holland.
So this bullpen would be nice with Holland in it. Having said that, so far we haven't been burned too bad by Thornburg and Smith not throwing a pitch yet.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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What makes you think Holland would have come here to set up as opposed to going somewhere to close? An enormous overpay?
Holland got 1/$7M with a mutual $10M option for 2018, so yeah, it would have required a significant overpay for a guy coming off TJ surgery. An unlikely scenario for a team that had a presumably healthy Thornburg plus Barnes/Kelly/Ross (Hembree too if you were bullish on him) plus the prospect of adding Carson Smith mid year. Even now, with Thornburg and Ross hurt and still no Smith, the pen has been better than expected in general.
 

E5 Yaz

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MLBTR

The Red Sox are one of several teams scouting Royals lefty Mike Minor, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. The 27-34 Royals could move Minor at the trade deadline.

The longtime Braves starter has reemerged in 2017 after missing all of the last two big-league seasons to arm trouble, posting a 2.25 ERA, 9.3 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over 32 relief innings with Kansas City. Minor seems to have gotten even a bit more than the typical velocity bump associated with converting from starting to relief, averaging 94.0 MPHon his fastball after throwing 90.5 MPH in 2014. He’s also been terrific against lefties this season, holding them to a .380 OPS thus far this year.

Minor is in the second season of a two-year deal with the Royals he signed while injured. In addition to the remainder of his $4MM salary for this season, his contract also contains a $10MM mutual option or a $1.25MM buyout for 2018.
 

Van Everyman

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FWIW, DOB and Eck have been talking on NESN over this last week about how Kelly has added this hitch he uses sometimes with his delivery that delays when he releases the ball. He doesn't use it every pitch and it's kind of odd to see on replay – it's almost as if he's hesitating the throw the pitch. But they were saying that it seems to coincide with his numbers stabilizing and seems to throw off the hitters' timing on his FB so you can probably expect him to keep doing it.
 

shaggydog2000

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FWIW, DOB and Eck have been talking on NESN over this last week about how Kelly has added this hitch he uses sometimes with his delivery that delays when he releases the ball. He doesn't use it every pitch and it's kind of odd to see on replay – it's almost as if he's hesitating the throw the pitch. But they were saying that it seems to coincide with his numbers stabilizing and seems to throw off the hitters' timing on his FB so you can probably expect him to keep doing it.
It was interesting to see how he varied his delivery timing, with occasional quick pitches, varying hitch times, and straight no hitch deliveries. A little more deception doesn't hurt.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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What do people make of the Sox scouting Minor? Just due diligence? A commentary on the progress of Thornburgh and Smith (or possible lack thereof)? Hopeful bargain hunting?

I'm really hoping/expecting Smith and TT to be our midseason BP "acquisitions," allowing the team to focus on other needs (3B).
 

simplicio

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What do people make of the Sox scouting Minor? Just due diligence? A commentary on the progress of Thornburgh and Smith (or possible lack thereof)? Hopeful bargain hunting?

I'm really hoping/expecting Smith and TT to be our midseason BP "acquisitions," allowing the team to focus on other needs (3B).
Spier today was writing about it as a possible referendum on Abad.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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But aren't Smith and TT both particularly good against LHBs? I thought that's part of why we liked them...
Still need contingency plans if neither come back this year. Thornburg is still a long ways from contributing, but Smith is supposed to be on track to start a rehab assignment soon and be ready to go by the All Star break.

But even if Smith is back by then, there's no guarantee he's going to be exactly the pitcher he was before the injury. At least not out of the gate.
 

phenweigh

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I think John Farrell deserves some credit for his handling of the bullpen. Considering there is little to have faith in beyond Kimbrel, the good results from the relievers must mean he's making some pretty good decisions.
 

joe dokes

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I think John Farrell deserves some credit for his handling of the bullpen. Considering there is little to have faith in beyond Kimbrel, the good results from the relievers must mean he's making some pretty good decisions.
As made abundantly clear last night, he is really going hard on avoiding Kelly going back to back. Only once since May 1, and that was after a 1 batter appearance.

Kimbrel and Farrell said the pitching strain doesn't come from sitting between innings, but just from the sheer effort of throwing that hard. Kimbrel seems ok with b-to-b. Maybe Kelly is still figuring it out in his first shot at a full-time hi-leverage reliever.
 

AB in DC

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Even guys like Fernando are not looking like abad reliever. Since May 1:

13 appearances
14 IP
10 H (1 HR)
3 R (3 ER)
4 BB
8 K

Granted, most of these appearances were low-leverage (until last night), but I had expected him to last only until Smith or Thornburg is activated -- perhaps he's earned a longer stay.
 

nothumb

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I think John Farrell deserves some credit for his handling of the bullpen. Considering there is little to have faith in beyond Kimbrel, the good results from the relievers must mean he's making some pretty good decisions.
After crapping all over him for his management of the pen last year, I have to concur. The flexibility in how he deploys Kimbrel, as well as his seeming willingness to be a little more matchup focused / less rigid in his use of late inning guys, has been great. I wonder whether the fact that there isn't a clearly established setup guy has played into this, or if it was a deliberate tactical shift, and whether it will endure should, say, Smith emerge in the 2nd half.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think John Farrell deserves some credit for his handling of the bullpen. Considering there is little to have faith in beyond Kimbrel, the good results from the relievers must mean he's making some pretty good decisions.
I think the relievers are better than we give them credit for. Especially Kelly and Barnes. They don't really have a track record of success so it's hard to take it seriously. Barnes has been lights out over his last 13 games, with 22k/0bb and a whip of .857 over 14 innings. Given he has improved every year as a MR, it bodes well. And if you include the minors, Joe Kelly has dominated as a MR over a healthy sample size. Maybe it's time we admit they are good.

I'd still like one more reliever out of the pen but the top 3 guys have been great and Hembree has been serviceable. Hopefully Thornburg or Smith can be that guy.
 

grimshaw

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I think a notable change Farrell has made is that his guys don't get up and down in the pen like they have in the past. It maybe keeps them a little fresher overall.

That said, I think his seemingly pushing the right buttons is because several guys are waaay out pitching their xFIP. It may not be the be all end all stat (not sure what effect it has on defensive positioning for instance), but there is very likely going to be some big regression regardless of what leverage situations they are in.

Hembree - 3.77 ERA vs. 4.17
Kelly - 1.32 vs. 3.87
Scott - 1.76 vs. 3.85
Abad - 2.79 vs. 5.21

Barnes is the one guy beating his - 3.38 vs 2,88.

And to a much lesser degree due to SSS
Boyer - 2.38 vs. 3.76
Workman - 3.38 vs 4.72
 

phenweigh

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I think the relievers are better than we give them credit for. Especially Kelly and Barnes. They don't really have a track record of success so it's hard to take it seriously. Barnes has been lights out over his last 13 games, with 22k/0bb and a whip of .857 over 14 innings. Given he has improved every year as a MR, it bodes well. And if you include the minors, Joe Kelly has dominated as a MR over a healthy sample size. Maybe it's time we admit they are good.

I'd still like one more reliever out of the pen but the top 3 guys have been great and Hembree has been serviceable. Hopefully Thornburg or Smith can be that guy.
IMO, most of the credit/blame goes to the players, so I agree that "we" may not be giving Barnes and Kelly enough credit. But if there is something the manager can really have some real impact on, I think it's the handling of the pen, and I'm ready to give JF credit.
 

phenweigh

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I think a notable change Farrell has made is that his guys don't get up and down in the pen like they have in the past. It maybe keeps them a little fresher overall.

That said, I think his seemingly pushing the right buttons is because several guys are waaay out pitching their xFIP. It may not be the be all end all stat (not sure what effect it has on defensive positioning for instance), but there is very likely going to be some big regression regardless of what leverage situations they are in.

Hembree - 3.77 ERA vs. 4.17
Kelly - 1.32 vs. 3.87
Scott - 1.76 vs. 3.85
Abad - 2.79 vs. 5.21

Barnes is the one guy beating his - 3.38 vs 2,88.

And to a much lesser degree due to SSS
Boyer - 2.38 vs. 3.76
Workman - 3.38 vs 4.72
I believe there is strong consensus that ERA for individual relievers is a pretty bad stat. But is there consensus about looking at team reliever ERA? I'd think it would be more useful, even if still somewhat flawed.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think a notable change Farrell has made is that his guys don't get up and down in the pen like they have in the past. It maybe keeps them a little fresher overall.

That said, I think his seemingly pushing the right buttons is because several guys are waaay out pitching their xFIP. It may not be the be all end all stat (not sure what effect it has on defensive positioning for instance), but there is very likely going to be some big regression regardless of what leverage situations they are in.

Hembree - 3.77 ERA vs. 4.17
Kelly - 1.32 vs. 3.87
Scott - 1.76 vs. 3.85
Abad - 2.79 vs. 5.21

Barnes is the one guy beating his - 3.38 vs 2,88.

And to a much lesser degree due to SSS
Boyer - 2.38 vs. 3.76
Workman - 3.38 vs 4.72
Their FIPs look drastically different. Hembree's FIP is at 3.40. Kelly's is 2.97, Scott 3.05 and Abad 4.10. Still overperforming but not nearly as much. Are the gaps in FIP and xFIP usually that big? You are also still playing with very small sample sizes. Joe Kelly's first 13.1 innings this year saw him walk 8 and strike out 5. Since he's pitched 14.0 while striking out 15 and walking 4. He is also the only Redsox pitcher besides Robby Ross (8.0ip) to not give up a HR this year. I'd guess Kelly's FIP and xFIP have been on a steady decline since May 1st.
 

grimshaw

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Their FIPs look drastically different. Hembree's FIP is at 3.40. Kelly's is 2.97, Scott 3.05 and Abad 4.10. Still overperforming but not nearly as much. Are the gaps in FIP and xFIP usually that big? You are also still playing with very small sample sizes. Joe Kelly's first 13.1 innings this year saw him walk 8 and strike out 5. Since he's pitched 14.0 while striking out 15 and walking 4. He is also the only Redsox pitcher besides Robby Ross (8.0ip) to not give up a HR this year. I'd guess Kelly's FIP and xFIP have been on a steady decline since May 1st.
Ya - I'm second guessing that evaluation since I have no idea when that stabilizes. BABIP is probably a better predictor of regression and with that it's all over the place with our guys. Even using that is probably poor.
 

chrisfont9

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IMO, most of the credit/blame goes to the players, so I agree that "we" may not be giving Barnes and Kelly enough credit. But if there is something the manager can really have some real impact on, I think it's the handling of the pen, and I'm ready to give JF credit.
Do these things go together? Like, do managers not get guys up and down in the pen a lot because they have confidence in the players, because the players are performing? So if Farrell decides he wants Kelly for the 6th, there's no matchup or other scenario that would change his mind.
 

phenweigh

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Do these things go together? Like, do managers not get guys up and down in the pen a lot because they have confidence in the players, because the players are performing? So if Farrell decides he wants Kelly for the 6th, there's no matchup or other scenario that would change his mind.
We'd have to be able to read Farrell's mind to answer those questions, but I agree with the point I think you're making which is that it's easier for a manager to make good decisions when his players are performing well.
 

johnnywayback

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Would be easy enough to option Velazquez this weekend once the bullpen has had a chance to recover and sign Peralta, if that's what they're going to do.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Velazquez et al with 6 1/3 more scoreless innings. Wow.

He probably goes back down today, unless Johnson has a real injury in which case I expect they will put Hector in BJ's slot next week.

Either way I expect Travis up for Thursday's game replacing Velazquez or Johnson.
 

E5 Yaz

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Velazquez et al with 6 1/3 more scoreless innings. Wow.

He probably goes back down today, unless Johnson has a real injury in which case I expect they will put Hector in BJ's slot next week.

Either way I expect Travis up for Thursday's game replacing Velazquez or Johnson.
Travis hasn't been down long enough, has he?
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Yeah, I was trying to edit that but my system froze.

WEEI was saying before the game that Travis would likely come up for Velazquez, but he hasn't been down long enough. Could he replace BJ if BJ goes on the DL?

Otherwise, I expect Selsky so they have someone at first base if Hanley goes down.
 

phenweigh

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If they DL Johnson they could bring anybody up, right? My vote is Marrero. I'd rather have the good glove than an emergency backup first baseman.

Was Hector brought up because he was pitching well or he because had enough rest to be available? Or is one of the other PawSox starters a more likely temporary fifth starter?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Was Hector brought up because he was pitching well or he because had enough rest to be available? Or is one of the other PawSox starters a more likely temporary fifth starter?
He last pitched on Saturday. The only other starter who was more well rested and also on the 40-man was Kyle Kendrick, who hasn't pitched in 10 days. That they chose Velazquez says something about Kendrick, I think (unless he's injured). I would guess that Velazquez will get first crack at Johnson's rotation spot if Johnson is headed for the DL.
 

phenweigh

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He last pitched on Saturday. The only other starter who was more well rested and also on the 40-man was Kyle Kendrick, who hasn't pitched in 10 days. That they chose Velazquez says something about Kendrick, I think (unless he's injured). I would guess that Velazquez will get first crack at Johnson's rotation spot if Johnson is headed for the DL.
Thanks for this. I checked SoxProspects which reports Hector pitched 3 games in June w/o allowing an earned run. So he's pitching well lately, but he's only logged 13 innings in those 3 games. Anyone know what the reason is for such limited innings?
 

Cesar Crespo

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because he was pulled out of one of those starts after 1 inning and 7 pitches. He started again just 3 days later and pitched 6 innings.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Johnson to the DL, RHP Austin Maddox selected to the roster. No word yet on a corresponding move to get Maddox on the 40-man.


Edit to add: Elias to the 60-day DL.

 
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