Have the Sox actually said anything about Kelly and consecutive days? I wonder if this is going to be all season, or maybe they'll try a few back to backs in the second half.
Bullpen 2017
- Thread starter nvalvo
- Start date
From earlier in June
Evan Drellich @EvanDrellich
Farrell noted purposeful aversion of back to back days with Joe Kelly. Throwing that hard, needs recovery time. First full year doing this.2:30 PM · Jun 14, 2017
2 Retweets
8 Likes
I wonder what the plan is for Workman. WHIP just under 1.00, 29K in 25 1/3 innings this year in AAA. Seems like he's back.
Probably someone will get injured before Carson Smith is ready. Law of averages and whatnot.
I'm as big a Workman fan as we have here, but he got sent down after a pretty poor outing against the Yanks last month. That being said, he's probably in line to be one of the next two guys to be called up if the Sox get much inconsistency from Boyer or Abad.
Owens first start in AA with the new arm slot was a disaster. There were talks of people wanting to move him to the pen, it's time. Either that or stick a fork in him.
0.2ip, 0h, 3er, 6bb/0k, 42 pitches, 15 strikes.
0.2ip, 0h, 3er, 6bb/0k, 42 pitches, 15 strikes.
That... or let him try to work it out for a while. Owens is just not the kind of pitcher you give up on. He lacks consistency but you hope he finds it in a more natural arm slot - it can make a huge difference when repeated over a longer period of time that 0.2ip.
I think he'd be more likely to find consistency working 1 inning at a time. I just don't see this guy ever working out as a starter. His walk rates have been on the rise for awhile. In 2015 he was at an 11.2% BB rate, 2016 it was 13.6%. 2017 it's at 19.9%. It's also 26 walks in the last 16.1 ip to go with only 10 strike outs. Ultimately, it doesn't matter much to the big league club this season because he's not going to be anywhere near Boston. It almost seems like it's mental now.
I won't dispute the numbers - Owens looks to be getting worse/breaking down. But I suppose the hope is that those numbers are immaterial when you change the way he pitches. An extreme would be if a pitcher started throwing submarine - would you still factor in previous numbers, or is it really a different pitcher? Owens obviously isn't that extreme, but changing the arm slot seems to be an acknowledgement that what he's working with isn't working - and that he's open to make adjustments, which would not toss out the mental argument, but at least seem to mean that he's not in such a bad mental place that he won't make changes.
Owens has logged roughly 3 years in AAA now and is about to turn 25.
Is transitioning him to a bullpen role, where he might actually have a better overall chance to find something that sticks, really giving up on a guy? The other way and all or nothing approach atm arguably fits that bill better imo.
I'm not arguing that a new arm slot will make him realize his potential, but that's the kind of serious mechanical change that can make a pitcher consistent, and hopefully make the jump to the show. I wonder if the Sox think that change AND a move to the bullpen are too much all at once. Let him stick with what he knows, but work on this one, major adjustment and see where the results take him.
Starting means he gets more innings a week to practice the new arm slot, if things go well.
I'm not just reading into those numbers, though. I'm also taking into account how he's looked lately. I don't trust him in a close and late situation and I really hope they find a better option before the deadline. And his road numbers look a lot more like the guy he was before this year than his home numbers.
Home FIP 1.57
Home xFIP 2.70
Road FIP 4.88
Road xFIP 4.06
2015 FIP 5.23
2015 xFIP 4.39
2016 FIP 3.72
2016 xFIP 4.09
I'm just not sure it's a good idea to believe that he's dramatically better than we've seen in the past when the home numbers could be the fluke here. They're really the only thing that stands out.
(Nervous Nellie alert) - can I just say that Kimbrel's ASG appearance scared the bejeezus out of me? I worry that he gets way too amped up in critical situations, which results in loss of control.
Earlier in his tenure with us, every time out of the pen when facing a RHH, his first few pitches were overthrown and jerked into the LHH batters box.
After a bit (and perhaps a walk), he seemed to settle down and regained control.
For most of this season, he seems to have been able to control his adrenaline (if my coach potato psychology is correct) and he's been dialed in from the get-go.
But what I saw yesterday on the big stage leaves me anxious about what might happen should they be lucky/good enough to reach the post-season.
Would appreciate a flood of responses that tell me I'm over-reacting. TIA
Earlier in his tenure with us, every time out of the pen when facing a RHH, his first few pitches were overthrown and jerked into the LHH batters box.
After a bit (and perhaps a walk), he seemed to settle down and regained control.
For most of this season, he seems to have been able to control his adrenaline (if my coach potato psychology is correct) and he's been dialed in from the get-go.
But what I saw yesterday on the big stage leaves me anxious about what might happen should they be lucky/good enough to reach the post-season.
Would appreciate a flood of responses that tell me I'm over-reacting. TIA
It took him 25 pitches, only 12 of them strikes, to get three outs. I wouldn't necessarily jump to any hasty conclusions that this is what we should expect from Kimbrel in big games (especially considering that he actually has a postseason record, including last year for the Sox, and it's a damn good one). But it certainly wasn't what you'd call a clean outing.
Holy crap, it was the all-star game. The only thing more meaningless is spring training. If you're honestly concerned about his mental fortitude after a rocky outing in an exhibition game then you've jumped the shark and need to relax.
If Kimbrel's going to have a clunker, and let's be fair, Tuesday was only a clunker relative to his otherworldly performance in the last 3 months and not really a clunker at all, better it be in a game that means nothing than in a game that has some sort of importance.
I think we can give him a pass for not being razor sharp in an exhibition game in which he's facing an entire lineup of All Stars. Is there any team in baseball that can boast a set of hitters, in a row, as potent as Molina, Harrison, Lamb, Goldschmidt, and Conforto? Obviously that's not the very best the NL roster had to offer, but it's still better than any individual team is going to throw out there.
Step back off the ledge.
I think we can give him a pass for not being razor sharp in an exhibition game in which he's facing an entire lineup of All Stars. Is there any team in baseball that can boast a set of hitters, in a row, as potent as Molina, Harrison, Lamb, Goldschmidt, and Conforto? Obviously that's not the very best the NL roster had to offer, but it's still better than any individual team is going to throw out there.
Step back off the ledge.
Possible internal options for the bullpen in the second half:
Brandon Workman, RHP. In AAA, 28 IP, 1.61 ERA. 2 appearances for Boston so far. Coming off 2 missed seasons, so has been handled carefully. Hasn't pitched on back to back days, or even on 1 or 2 days of rest yet. Seems like if he was able to build up enough arm strength to pitch on back to back days, or even on 1 day rest, he could help.
Jalen Beeks, LHP. In AA and AAA, 87 IP, 2.59 ERA. Started season in AA, promoted to Pawtucket. Has worked as a starter only so far but has looked good in that role.
Ben Taylor, RHP. In AAA, only 7.1 IP, was out for a while, now back. Already pitched 11 games in Boston this year.
Austin Maddox, RHP. In AAA, 20 IP, 3.15 ERA. Already 2 appearances in Boston this year.
Chandler Shepherd, RHP. In AAA, 32 IP, 4.78 ERA but 39-12 K-BB.
Noe Ramirez, RHP. In AAA, 32.2 IP, 3.03 ERA. Already pitched 2 games in Boston this year.
Jamie Callahan, RHP. In AA and AAA, 34.2 IP, 3.12 ERA. 45 K, 11 BB. Former 2nd round pick, only 22.
Kyle Martin, RHP. In AAA, 35.1 IP, 4.08 ERA.34-16 K-BB.
Roenis Elias, LHP. Injured all year, starting to rehab. Pitched once in A ball, got pounded.
Hector Velazquez, RHP-- starting in AAA, will probably continue to start and be a depth option
Brian Johnson, LHP-- same as Velazquez
Edgar Olmos, LHP-- ditto
If one of these guys could come up and be a solid 7th inning reliever for a couple of months, that would be a huge boost. Each has their issues though.
Brandon Workman, RHP. In AAA, 28 IP, 1.61 ERA. 2 appearances for Boston so far. Coming off 2 missed seasons, so has been handled carefully. Hasn't pitched on back to back days, or even on 1 or 2 days of rest yet. Seems like if he was able to build up enough arm strength to pitch on back to back days, or even on 1 day rest, he could help.
Jalen Beeks, LHP. In AA and AAA, 87 IP, 2.59 ERA. Started season in AA, promoted to Pawtucket. Has worked as a starter only so far but has looked good in that role.
Ben Taylor, RHP. In AAA, only 7.1 IP, was out for a while, now back. Already pitched 11 games in Boston this year.
Austin Maddox, RHP. In AAA, 20 IP, 3.15 ERA. Already 2 appearances in Boston this year.
Chandler Shepherd, RHP. In AAA, 32 IP, 4.78 ERA but 39-12 K-BB.
Noe Ramirez, RHP. In AAA, 32.2 IP, 3.03 ERA. Already pitched 2 games in Boston this year.
Jamie Callahan, RHP. In AA and AAA, 34.2 IP, 3.12 ERA. 45 K, 11 BB. Former 2nd round pick, only 22.
Kyle Martin, RHP. In AAA, 35.1 IP, 4.08 ERA.34-16 K-BB.
Roenis Elias, LHP. Injured all year, starting to rehab. Pitched once in A ball, got pounded.
Hector Velazquez, RHP-- starting in AAA, will probably continue to start and be a depth option
Brian Johnson, LHP-- same as Velazquez
Edgar Olmos, LHP-- ditto
If one of these guys could come up and be a solid 7th inning reliever for a couple of months, that would be a huge boost. Each has their issues though.
Some potentially good news on the pen:
Joe Kelley with a perfect rehab inning, and should/could be back today.
@PeteAbe
Joe Kelly with a perfect inning for Pawtucket. 8 pitches, one strikeout. Should be activated by Friday.
Also, Carson Smith will start his minor league rehab assignment in AA on Saturday.
@MikeSilvermanBB
Carson Smith will begin his rehab assignment this Saturday in Portland.
Joe Kelley with a perfect rehab inning, and should/could be back today.
@PeteAbe
Joe Kelly with a perfect inning for Pawtucket. 8 pitches, one strikeout. Should be activated by Friday.
Also, Carson Smith will start his minor league rehab assignment in AA on Saturday.
@MikeSilvermanBB
Carson Smith will begin his rehab assignment this Saturday in Portland.
Is Carson Smith still a possible option this year? I thought he was unlikely to come back this year? Or was that just Thornburg?
Smith could be back in September, I suppose. The question really is how effective he would be
He's beginning a rehab in 2 days... so yea, he's absolutely a possibility. You just hope he has the confidence in the elbow because this guy was as good as anyone pre-TJ. He'd be a monster pick up if he was even 80% of his 2015 self.
If they didn't take him out back and shoot him, he's an option.
(Bad) joking aside, I sort of stopped thinking about him when Thornberg went down. For some reason they are linked in my mind
It seems whenever he gets close to a rehab start he has a set back. But he's still a possibility, and it'd be a nice shot in the arm for the 'pen to get him out there (especially if he's effective) by the end of the month. If all the chips fall our way, Smith, Reed and Kelly could be a really, really huge upgrade to that part of the Sox.
Ya makes sense short term. I was assuming they wouldn't stick with 13 pitchers for long.
How do you define 80%? Certainly not velocity. WHIP, ERA, FIP, WAR? Always wondered when someone made a percentage as good as comment about a player?
I tend to think of it as literally 80% of the person, which is why there is such a broad range of outcomes. If he lost a kidney or a few ribs, he might still be effective. But if that missing 20% is his throwing arm or plant leg, it may significantly impact his ability to pitch without making some significant mechanical adjustments.
We need to talk about Brandon Workman. The guy is painting edges at 95-96 with a wipeout cutter and a sharp curve he can get over for strikes.
He's 28. People forget he was on the 2013 WS roster. Farrell has basically used him as the top bridge arm to Kimbrel for a week now.
I have as much confidence in him as any other arm in that pen not Kimbrel.
He's 28. People forget he was on the 2013 WS roster. Farrell has basically used him as the top bridge arm to Kimbrel for a week now.
I have as much confidence in him as any other arm in that pen not Kimbrel.
An effective Workman, a healthy Kelly, and shiny new toy Reed totally change the depth of this bullpen. And that's without getting anything from Smith, which still needs to be looked at as a long shot--but a shot--for this season.
Smith topped out at 91 today (18 pitches), walked three men and only recorded one out. Slated to pitch again on Tuesday.
I was at the game. Only 5 of 18 pitches were strikes. Crowd bronx cheered when he threw a first pitch strike to batter #4 after walking the first three.
Then he gave up a loud shot to right that Barfield made a sliding grab on for a sac fly.
Much of the crowd was perplexed since he started the game and then was pulled after that one out.
Smart, really, since there were rain delays all night.
Trey Ball continued to look awful, BTW. Shelled. We left at the 13-7 rain delay.
Then he gave up a loud shot to right that Barfield made a sliding grab on for a sac fly.
Much of the crowd was perplexed since he started the game and then was pulled after that one out.
Smart, really, since there were rain delays all night.
Trey Ball continued to look awful, BTW. Shelled. We left at the 13-7 rain delay.
The most concerning thing about Smith is if he really on topped out at 91. That's not major league velocity anymore.
Maybe these are the ups and downs of velocity from a guy who hasn't yet built up consistent arm strength. But that is not an encouraging report.
I don't think it's anything other than further proof that he isn't close. Workman is throwing about 5 mph harder than when he was called up earlier in the year. Building back arm strength takes time.
Supposedly the plan is for Smith to pitch every 3 days for the next few weeks. The optimistic goal is he's able to join the big club after September 1. It's all about building up strength and getting work in a live game environment. There's no reason to get excited or worried about the results at all, as long as he keeps pitching.
