Cap Clearing trade?

Sox and Rocks

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If you are thinking that Boston is going to get a good return, please find me a team that satisfies each of the following criteria:

1. Has the required cap space/trade exception/non-guaranteed contracts to take back Crowder, Smart or Bradley without sending back guaranteed salary
2. Has the clear and present need to upgrade today by acquiring Crowder, Smart or Bradley
3. Has the trade asset or young player that they'd be willing to give up in said deal

I can't seem to find a team that can both absorb a contract and send back something interesting (say an extra lottery-protected pick). That's why this is dragging out and it's why the return is going to be disappointing to those who are expecting something good.
1. My Nuggets have between 10 and 15 million of cap room (not sure of the exact number) and have some cap holds they could rescind to create more.
2. The 3 spot is currently their weakest after losing Galo, so they should be interested in Crowder and/or Smart. They are stacked at PG but were linked to Beverly and George Hill earlier this off season, apparently wanting to improve their perimeter D, so they might have interest in Bradely, too.
3. They have several stretch big men (probably too many, in fact) which might intrigue the Celtics and all of their future picks plus two extra 2nd rounders.

I hope they are involved in an effort to top whatever Utah is offering.
 

amfox1

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DEN is on my short list for Crowder trades. I would suggest Lyles and a 2nd for Crowder would work. DEN would have to renounce Hibbert and Plumlee but could then fit Crowder into space and still have room to guarantee Mike Miller's contract, if they choose to do so.
 

cheech13

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There's no chance they renounce Plumlee though, right? They just gave up Nurkic and a first round pick to acquire him.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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This article says they have renounced him. Not sure who's right here or if it's just a matter of poor choice of words by the author.

https://www.netsdaily.com/2017/7/5/15924404/amick-nets-among-four-teams-coming-on-strong-for-olynyk
Yes, every other article that talks about Olynyk says that they renounced him. However, my guess is that 99% of those writers aren't paying attention to difference between rescinding the QO and renouncing KO.

My guess is rescinding is correct but that and five bucks will buy you something at Starbucks. Maybe.
 

BigSoxFan

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DEN is on my short list for Crowder trades. I would suggest Lyles and a 2nd for Crowder would work. DEN would have to renounce Hibbert and Plumlee but could then fit Crowder into space and still have room to guarantee Mike Miller's contract, if they choose to do so.
I would take a shot on Lyles. Not sure what happened to him last year but his rookie season was solid.
 

cheech13

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Yes, every other article that talks about Olynyk says that they renounced him. However, my guess is that 99% of those writers aren't paying attention to difference between rescinding the QO and renouncing KO.

My guess is rescinding is correct but that and five bucks will buy you something at Starbucks. Maybe.
This is where I'm at, too. I can't think of any many situations where there is a functional difference between rescinding a qualifying offer and renouncing said player so I'm guessing most writers/editors aren't that worried about the language being used.
 

benhogan

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Huh. Zero evidence?

Crowder has become a terrificly overrated defender and we'll see if he can maintain his huge one-year improvement in three-point shooting or if it was an outlier. .
A little history lesson on Jae Crowder:

- undersized, overweight kid from Georgia high school that doesn't get recruited and receives no Division 1 scholarships.

- goes to local Junior College (South Georgia Tech) his freshman year, named Junior College Player of the Year

- still no interest from big schools, so he transfers to Howard College for his Sophmore year. Named Junior College Player of the Year again and Howard wins its first ever Junior College Championship

- transfers to Marquette, and in his Senior year he is named Big East Player of the Year (when the Big East was relevant) and 2nd team All-American

- gets drafted in the 2nd round by Cleveland and dealt to Dallas

- first 2 years in NBA he is an active bench player for Dallas. The 3rd year Dallas brings a few players in (Richard Jefferson and Aminu) and Jae gets sent to Development League.

- in 2014-15 season Jae dealt to Boston in Rondo trade as a 'throw in'. Brad immediately put him in the rotation, averaged close to double figures, and helped the Celtics reach the play-offs.

- commits to a reasonable 5yr deal

- then puts up 2 very good seasons for the Celtics, see SMAS post above

Jae Crowder is 27yr old, that's just hitting his prime. I don't believe his improvement is luck or an outlier, all he has ever done is put in the work and deliver.
 

Sox and Rocks

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There's no chance they renounce Plumlee though, right? They just gave up Nurkic and a first round pick to acquire him.
No, but they can renounce Miller and Hibbert. They can trade Chandler or Barton, who should certainly have value. They can trade Faried. They can trade or buy out Jameer Nelson. There are plenty of moves they could make to create the space without renouncing Plumlee, who they want to retain.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think Crowder will fall back some on 3s, but still be above average.
Defensively... meh, he dies on screens, if you run his man off a screen you're 65-35 to lose Crowder, 2 screens and it's all but guaranteed.
He's a good solid player, but he's not close to an elite defender, and he's strictly a shooter on offense. That's very valuable at his contract, but it's not someone who is on a trajectory to be a huge impact player (and he plays arguably the deepest position in the league)
 

Cellar-Door

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No, but they can renounce Miller and Hibbert. They can trade Chandler or Barton, who should certainly have value. They can trade Faried. They can trade or buy out Jameer Nelson. There are plenty of moves they could make to create the space without renouncing Plumlee, who they want to retain.
By all accounts they've been trying for over a year at this point. No takers. Mostly because he's a garbage basketball player who plays hard but not well.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Yup. My take is that Bradley is elite against smaller scoring guards, but not so much overall.
He has the occasional game where he looks basically transcendent on D, like a one man swarm of hornets, and that's what tends to be remembered more than the games where he is merely good depending on the matchup.
 

mcpickl

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Teams with no cap room: CHA, CLE, DET, GS, HOU, LAC, MEM, MIL, NO, OKC, POR, TOR, WAS (assumes match for Porter)

Not going to trade with (future draft picks): BRK, LAL, PHI, SAC

Teams with cap room but no fit for Crowder: DAL, MIN, NYK, ORL, SA

Sign-and-trade only: UTA

Possible fits for Crowder: ATL, CHI, DEN, IND, MIA, PHX

I come up with seven possible trade partners for Crowder. There may be more or less for Bradley/Smart.
Being over the cap does not eliminate a team as a possible trade partner. Since the Celtics have to shave off such a small amount of space, it's not like they need someone to take back an entire salary and give back none.

I'm not saying either team might do this exact trade, but for example, say Charlotte loved Avery Bradley. They could offer you Jeremy Lamb who makes 7M and a first round pick. Even though they're over the cap, that's close enough to match, and the Celtics could then fit Hayward in with by dumping the Mickey types.

The market is not that limited.
 

mcpickl

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Yes, every other article that talks about Olynyk says that they renounced him. However, my guess is that 99% of those writers aren't paying attention to difference between rescinding the QO and renouncing KO.

My guess is rescinding is correct but that and five bucks will buy you something at Starbucks. Maybe.
I agree with this, he was probably not renounced.

It doesn't matter much anyway if the Celtics go under the cap. They can actually sign Olynyk with cap space and still be eligible to sign and trade him.
 

amfox1

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Being over the cap does not eliminate a team as a possible trade partner. Since the Celtics have to shave off such a small amount of space, it's not like they need someone to take back an entire salary and give back none.

I'm not saying either team might do this exact trade, but for example, say Charlotte loved Avery Bradley. They could offer you Jeremy Lamb who makes 7M and a first round pick. Even though they're over the cap, that's close enough to match, and the Celtics could then fit Hayward in with by dumping the Mickey types.

The market is not that limited.
A capped team can only obtain salaries equal to 125%, plus $100k, of the outgoing salaries. That does not clear enough room in a Crowder solo trade ($5.36+mm vs. $6.80mm).

After accounting for Mickey, renouncing cap holds and stashing Yabusele, BOS needs to cut $2.025mm plus $815k per each player traded away. This won't do it.
 
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Cellar-Door

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A capped team can only obtain salaries equal to 125%, plus $100k, of the outgoing salaries. That does not clear enough room in a Crowder solo trade ($5.36+mm vs. $6.80mm).

After accounting for Mickey, renouncing cap holds and stashing Yabusele, BOS needs to cut $2.025mm plus $815k per each player traded away. This won't do it.
From cbafaq:

"(again, they must be under the tax level after the trade), the salaries that can be acquired depend on the total salaries the team is trading away: Non-Taxpaying Teams
Outgoing salary Maximum incoming salary
$0 to $6,533,333 175% of the outgoing salary, plus $100,0005
$6,533,334 to $19.6 million The outgoing salary plus $5 million5
$19.6 million and up 125% of the outgoing salary, plus $100,000

Taxpaying teams can take back up to 125% of their outgoing salaries, plus $100,000, no matter how much salary the team is sending away. For example, a taxpaying team trading away $10 million in salaries can acquire one or more replacement players making up to $12.6 million.

Taxpaying Teams
Outgoing salary Maximum incoming salary
Any 125% of the outgoing salary, plus $100,000"

So any team over the cap but under the tax line could pretty much send out any single or combination of players who make at least $1,796,117,

EDIT- I screwed that up. It would be 175% plus 100k. So... 3,826,353.
 
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mcpickl

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A capped team can only obtain salaries equal to 125%, plus $100k, of the outgoing salaries. That does not clear enough room in a Crowder solo trade ($5.36+mm vs. $6.80mm).

After accounting for Mickey, renouncing cap holds and stashing Yabusele, BOS needs to cut $2.025mm plus $815k per each player traded away. This won't do it.
125% rule is not for capped teams, it's for taxpaying teams.

I didn't say anything about Jae Crowder. I said Lamb for Bradley. That clears 1.8M. I'm giving Demetrius Jackson away for free for being under the cap.

And again, it's just one example.
 

boca

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Olynyk won't be part of any sign and trade.

He's agreed a 4 year deal with the Heat
 

amfox1

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http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2017/07/bulpett_it_s_a_tough_market_out_there_for_danny_ainge_to_make_value_deals

Danny Ainge and Brad Stevens were back in Boston, too, having left here yesterday morning to sit at a table on a stage as soon as today and smile as Hayward is formally introduced as a Celtic.

Meanwhile, amid the preparations for pomp and circumstance and general hoopla, the club was taking on the demeanor of a duck — calm above water, but paddling like hell beneath the surface as it tried to complete the deals to free up the money for their free agent treasure.

At various points through the day and into the evening yesterday, the Celts were alternately close to a sign-and-trade deal with Utah and then slipping away from such a move.
According to two league sources, the Celtics were having some issues getting deals done in part because teams see them as being in a tight squeeze — needing to clear salary to get Hayward done and get on with the task of completing the roster around him, with maybe another trade or a free agent signing into the room via the mid-level exception of $4.328 million. Opponents were trying to get a bargain, while the Celts were trying to get at least reasonable value in return.
“It’s funny,” said one general manager. “Avery Bradley isn’t Paul George, but just like Boston didn’t want to give up the Brooklyn or Laker pick to Indiana, teams are wary about giving up something when Bradley could walk after this year.

“And if you go for Smart, you have to look at your roster and decide how much you’re going to be willing to pay him next summer.”
The case of Crowder is significantly different. He is under an incredibly team favorable contract of $6,796,117, $7,305,825 and $7,815,533 over the next three seasons and, though we’ve heard nothing specific to suggest this, the Jazz can’t be looking at him as simply a Celtic giveaway.

“You know how teams were (upset) at Indiana when they saw what they got for George? That’s how it’ll be if Boston gives up Crowder just to clear space,” said a Western Conference exec. “That guy has a lot of respect around the league for the way he plays the game.”

As of last night, the Celtics were just hoping the affection for Crowder, Bradley and Smart would translate into a workable trade that would get them over the Hayward hurdle. Then the club could know where it stands as it goes after needed rebounding assistance.
 

bosockboy

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Almost feels like collusion against Ainge. It's hard to believe he wouldn't of worked on contingency deals leading up to the Hayward signing.
 

Cellar-Door

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Almost feels like collusion against Ainge. It's hard to believe he wouldn't of worked on contingency deals leading up to the Hayward signing.
probably had, but the problem is the same, when everyone knows you have to trade somebody they aren't going to put up their best offer. It's why there are rumors he shopped Crowder and Smart at the draft.
His leverage is pretty low, he has to make a trade in the next 2-3 days maximum, and it has to fit very particular parameters (cutting salary). It's especially hard since teams that can take on salary are still sniffing around free agents hoping for a bargain. At some point Danny probably just takes the best offer on the table, circles back to see if anyone can beat it and settles for something less than he'd like. His usual ploy (and why he basically always wins trades) is to just refuse to deal if he doesn't get what he wants, just use his job security and patience as a weapon. Can't do that here, need to start filling out the roster before all the guys they want w/ RME are gone.
 

BigSoxFan

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Almost feels like collusion against Ainge. It's hard to believe he wouldn't of worked on contingency deals leading up to the Hayward signing.
Would you be willing to give up much for 1 year of control of a 6'2 SG who can't dribble to save his life or 2 years of control of a PG who can't shoot for shit and who has a sizeable payday looming?

Crowder is the more peculiar case. He is a starting caliber player who is making relative peanuts for 3 years. You'd think someone would bite on that for a future protected first.
 

the moops

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Almost feels like collusion against Ainge. It's hard to believe he wouldn't of worked on contingency deals leading up to the Hayward signing.
I think you are reading waaaayyyyyy too much into this. There are hundreds of possibilities as to why there hasn't been a trade yet, and only a few of them result in "collusion against Ainge". Actually, I think none of them result in that.

Most likely he is working multiple angles involfing multiple players and trying to get the best deal possible. No?
 

Cellar-Door

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Would you be willing to give up much for 1 year of control of a 6'2 SG who can't dribble to save his life or 2 years of control of a PG who can't shoot for shit and who has a sizeable payday looming?

Crowder is the more peculiar case. He is a starting caliber player who is making relative peanuts for 3 years. You'd think someone would bite on that for a future protected first.
Well depends. Smart is restricted, so real value there as you control the match or a S&T. Bradley is a really good player especially next to a PG who can ride all the rides at the amusement park, I think if you felt fairly confident that he would extend, a lot of team would have interest.

Milwaukee is someone who comes to mind, they need their PG to shoot 3s and defend the opposing point while Giannis takes on the offense running and ball handling duties. Bradley would be a huge upgrade from Dellavedova.

Philly is an interesting fit, he could play a similar role w/ Fultz learning behind him, and Simmons running much of the offense and then slide to the 2 and take over Reddick's salary slot the following year.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Almost feels like collusion against Ainge. It's hard to believe he wouldn't of worked on contingency deals leading up to the Hayward signing.
It isn't collusion it's just that none of those players have much trade value for their own individual reasons.

Crowder is a low upside role player who on his own is probably going to fetch no better than a high 2nd rounder or maybe at best a low 1st. Bradley is an expiring deal that's a low first at best. Smart is a very good 2nd unit guard but how much are they going for these days on the trade market? Plus he is going to want to get paid after next season.
 

lovegtm

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It isn't collusion it's just that none of those players have much trade value for their own individual reasons.

Crowder is a low upside role player who on his own is probably going to fetch no better than a high 2nd rounder or maybe at best a low 1st. Bradley is an expiring deal that's a low first at best. Smart is a very good 2nd unit guard but how much are they going for these days on the trade market? Plus he is going to want to get paid after next season.
Pretty much this. Another way of putting it--how would you feel if the Celtics traded a top-10 protected first rounder for Smart, Bradley, or Crowder?

Denver is the only team that really seems to work to me, given that they're pretty in on winning now and he'd be an upgrade.
 

smastroyin

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I think people talking about collision are also including things like the reported offers rejected by the Bulls and pacers compared to what those teams ultimately took.

I don't think it's collusion, which is a strong accusation. I do think it's that the competing GMs don't want to be seen as the next Billy King in dealing with Ainge and are offering less value (or asking more), even subconsciously, when working with him. Like, you want my guy, I want something from you that's gonna hurt. There is also the idea that maybe noone wants to help the Celtics be the next Warriors.
 

Kid T

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Teams with no cap room: CHA, CLE, DET, GS, HOU, LAC, MEM, MIL, NO, OKC, POR, TOR, WAS (assumes match for Porter)

Not going to trade with (future draft picks): BRK, LAL, PHI, SAC

Teams with cap room but no fit for Crowder: DAL, MIN, NYK, ORL, SA

Sign-and-trade only: UTA

Possible fits for Crowder: ATL, CHI, DEN, IND, MIA, PHX

I come up with seven possible trade partners for Crowder. There may be more or less for Bradley/Smart.
Wouldn't it be a reasonable gamble for any team under the cap to make a trade with Boston if they can do so for 50 cents on the dollar? they would at least have the option of flipping the player to another team with more leverage than DA has now.

Also, I would think the Jazz would be particularly motivated to work out a fair value S&T with Ainge as it would also create a sizeable trade exception for them.
 

Ed Hillel

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If they can't find a decent trade, I hope they just dump Smart to some crappy team competing with the Nets or Lakers for worst record. Crowder's contract is too valuable to dump for little return, and Bradley's a better player than Smart and essentially on the same contract as Boston likely won't match next year anyway.

Edit - If they think Crowder will become a headcase, I suppose I get it, but I think he'll still be getting minutes in Brad's rotation, especially if IT is out half the season.
 

vicirus

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The other option I haven't really seen mentioned is a sign and trade for a FA that the Celtics are interested in for one of AB/Crowder/Smart. In that case, it could take some time to:

1. Find a team that isn't interested in re-signing their FA, and;
2. Find a player that is willing to accept ~$500k less than the out going player

This would allow Ainge to re-balance the roster and get a useful piece, while the other team would get a cheap long term option (Crowder) or an asset to flip at the deadline (AB/Smart). A few guys I like that might fit that criteria are:

Mirotic, Sefalosha, Tony Allen, Speights

Less likely options would be: Noel, Dedmond, JaMychal Green

For the latter players you'd need to probably include Mickey, Jackson or Rozier to offer the incoming player a larger salary. I especially like Green if they can get him at $9MM per but would need to include a pick most likely.
 

JCizzle

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Interesting. I don't blame the guy for getting everything he's due, but this would certainly help...

 

Jed Zeppelin

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That would be pretty huge. I believe they would just need to dump Mickey/Jackson/Rozier and Hayward would be able to take something minuscule like $300k less than max.
 

DJnVa

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That would be pretty huge. I believe they would just need to dump Mickey/Jackson/Rozier and Hayward would be able to take something minuscule like $300k less than max.
Then he gets an "extra" Giant Glass commercial or something.


I do like how the league is simultaneously saying "HA! The Celtics are in a tough spot and may have to get back 2 dimes for a quarter" and "Well, if they give away Crowder for nothing, people around the league will be upset!"
 

Auger34

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That would be pretty huge. I believe they would just need to dump Mickey/Jackson/Rozier and Hayward would be able to take something minuscule like $300k less than max.
I wonder if anyone would give up a 2nd for Rozier or if he will just be traded to a teams cap space
 

JCizzle

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That would be pretty huge. I believe they would just need to dump Mickey/Jackson/Rozier and Hayward would be able to take something minuscule like $300k less than max.
I'd almost rather keep Rozier than AB due to the team control aspect, but it's hard to complain if it works out this way.
 

BigSoxFan

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Leverage against the teams who think they've got Danny over a barrel. Nice.
Yup. Danny's playing poker until the very end. If the Hayward stuff is true, then he's in a much better bargaining position than we had assumed.
 

the moops

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I love how one tweet changes the sentiment in here from "collusion! no chance Danny will get anything for any of these bums!" to "wow - Danny has this all under control"

:)
 

smastroyin

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I don't think it's really great news until we also hear that Dancing Bear is willing to be stashed again, though.

The Celtics need to replace Rozier, Mickey, and DJax with minimum guys (or roster holds) and have Hayward take a $300k or so less salary...but if you have a hold for Yabusele, that $300K becomes $2.5 million. Hayward's not doing that, I don't think. And I don't think you can get Yabu to take a rookie minimum salary because he was a first round pick, so you have to pay him as the CBA dictates.

Did I miss something on this front?
 

bosockboy

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I think people talking about collision are also including things like the reported offers rejected by the Bulls and pacers compared to what those teams ultimately took.

I don't think it's collusion, which is a strong accusation. I do think it's that the competing GMs don't want to be seen as the next Billy King in dealing with Ainge and are offering less value (or asking more), even subconsciously, when working with him. Like, you want my guy, I want something from you that's gonna hurt. There is also the idea that maybe noone wants to help the Celtics be the next Warriors.
Yes that's part of it too. Although a Crowder trade doesn't seem like it should shove anyone into Billy King territory. I think the Warriors thing is closer; Ainge exudes this "smartest guy in the room" vibe and there might be a touch of jealousy and how he's nailed this rebuild and teams just don't seem to want to play ball with him on trades. Not just this week, but yes the failed Butler and George pursuits.
 

benhogan

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I love how one tweet changes the sentiment in here from "collusion! no chance Danny will get anything for any of these bums!" to "wow - Danny has this all under control"

:)
Anyone concerned about Danny & Co getting fleeced hasn't been paying attention for the last 10yrs