Field Yates: Source: the Patriots have released veteran DE Cassius Marsh.
In addition to releasing Marsh, the Patriots have signed DE Eric Lee off of the Bills practice squad. Pass rush depth.
Cassius Marsh released and DE Eric Lee signed off Bills P-Squad
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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Field Yates: Source: the Patriots have released veteran DE Cassius Marsh.
In addition to releasing Marsh, the Patriots have signed DE Eric Lee off of the Bills practice squad. Pass rush depth.
Nothing too complicated, IMO he couldn't set the edge on running plays and was relatively ineffective as a pass rusher.
Not surprised in the slightest. Marsh was downright awful, especially against the run. Can't afford that as a DE in a Bill Belichick team.
Veterans Gilmore and Gillislee have been slow learners—guy from the Bills practice squad should be remedial level learner. They not teach football so good in Buffalo.
Bet Marsh winds up back in Seattle. Michael Bennett loved him for whatever reason. It couldn't possibly have been his edge-setting prowess.
I think it's obvious that Bill doesn't see a huge difference in value between 5-7 round picks and udfa/cuts he can pick up otherwise. There are enough physically talented guys to find the most coachable and hardest workers through trial and error. If it costs late round picks it is not an issue. Those picks are like picks at the draft except the return is immediate and not always a guy who hasn't spent a day on an NFL roster.
Too bad Marsh didn't work out.
Too bad Marsh didn't work out.
A decent number of rumors connected the Patriots to Eric Lee coming out of the draft in 2016. Patriots seem to do a good job of identifying guys they like during the draft process, and then they follow those same guys through their professional careers.
I'm kind of surprised they cut bait on Marsh so quickly, but I think there are a few things going on here. Marsh was one of the major contributors on special teams the first few weeks (32 snaps Week 1, 1 off the team lead), but his role there has been scaled back significantly, too - only 6 snaps Sunday, 5 and 7 the two previous games he played. I wonder if they decided a guy like Trevor Reilly was just giving them more.
EDIT: Also, Marsh only played 2 snaps per pro-football-reference. Looks like they were both in the second quarter, both runs going his direction, one a 25-yard gain for Lynch and the other 7 yards by Jalen Richard.
EDIT: Also, Marsh only played 2 snaps per pro-football-reference. Looks like they were both in the second quarter, both runs going his direction, one a 25-yard gain for Lynch and the other 7 yards by Jalen Richard.
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Agreed on the value of 5-7 rounders vs UDFA. Probably not a big difference considering fit in the team’s system and who was hurt or what not in college vs who wasn’t.
But the only place this could hurt a little is not having the draft capital to maybe move up from something like the late 3rd to the early 3rd to get your guy. Might not come to pass at all but giving up those picks isn’t just free.
This last was noted in today's PFW in Progress podcast. They also noted previous times Marsh had failed to set the edge. Andy Hart in particular has been beating the drum for a while that Marsh is worse than useless, so I can just imagine what he will say tomorrow.
The Lynch run was a joke. It was an obvious run play from the start and, rather than just stand in his spot and set the edge, he does what he always does - blindly throw his head down and rush in a wide loop to the outside. Lynch ran right to his empty spot.
I'm not sure this is true. Late round choices, even at 7, are players of interest who the teams get. There's no guarantee they'll sign an UDFA of interest; in fact, they're competing with the rest of the league for them. Although to temper this somewhat, from what I've read, most UDFA deals are unoffically finalized before the end of the draft
I think you're right about the mentality, but biff is right that it's not a huge difference. They're like priority priority free agents in the 5th to 7th rounds.
EDIT: to add more context, the Patriots have drafted 36 players in the 5th-to-7th rounds since 2008 (10 drafts). 23 were cut / traded before contributing 1 AV.
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I cannot figure out how to get a report on the number of FAs who have earned at least 1 AV in that same timeframe--would be interesting to see if it is close to or over the 13 5th-7th round picks who have earned that value.
This list (though it includes undrafted players who started careers with a different franchise) gives a sense of the guys who likely have had positive value http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2017/07/the_50_greatest_undrafted_play_1.html
Butler; Develin; BJGE; Connolly; Wendell; R Allen; Andrews; Arrington; Bolden; Guyton; Love; Kline; Fletcher; Vellano; Thompkins; Sergio Brown; J Jones; B King; Hoyer; Jonas Gray; Sterling Moore; Francis; Skinner seem likely to fit that criteria
That is why I've had the hypotheses for a while that Pats view almost any in-season gain to be worth one of those late picks---they think the odds of getting a useful player are as great in UDFA market as the late draft. I get that seems a little illogical, but what I think it says is getting players into camp is a much better evaluative tool than scouting players who fall in that range, so why worry a lot about whether, and which, players you get at that point since you're as likely to prefer some UDFA once you seem them all for a month anyway?
I looked a bit at the total value earned. From SN's drafted list, the top three 'drafted' guys in terms of career AV are Edelman at 45 AV, Ted Larsen at 29, and Cannon at 26. Next guy after those three are Deaderick and Ebner at 9 AV.
Obviously, Butler is an outlier from the UDFA list (24 AV in three years). But Bolden, at 9 AV, would be tied for fourth on the 'drafted between 5th and 7th' list. BJGE accumulated 22 AV in 4 Pats seasons. Connolly, at 45 AV, exceeds all but Edelman from the drafted list. Wendell is at 34 AV. Arrington at 20AV with the Pats. One can keep going, but I think the story becomes clear
This list (though it includes undrafted players who started careers with a different franchise) gives a sense of the guys who likely have had positive value http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2017/07/the_50_greatest_undrafted_play_1.html
Butler; Develin; BJGE; Connolly; Wendell; R Allen; Andrews; Arrington; Bolden; Guyton; Love; Kline; Fletcher; Vellano; Thompkins; Sergio Brown; J Jones; B King; Hoyer; Jonas Gray; Sterling Moore; Francis; Skinner seem likely to fit that criteria
That is why I've had the hypotheses for a while that Pats view almost any in-season gain to be worth one of those late picks---they think the odds of getting a useful player are as great in UDFA market as the late draft. I get that seems a little illogical, but what I think it says is getting players into camp is a much better evaluative tool than scouting players who fall in that range, so why worry a lot about whether, and which, players you get at that point since you're as likely to prefer some UDFA once you seem them all for a month anyway?
I looked a bit at the total value earned. From SN's drafted list, the top three 'drafted' guys in terms of career AV are Edelman at 45 AV, Ted Larsen at 29, and Cannon at 26. Next guy after those three are Deaderick and Ebner at 9 AV.
Obviously, Butler is an outlier from the UDFA list (24 AV in three years). But Bolden, at 9 AV, would be tied for fourth on the 'drafted between 5th and 7th' list. BJGE accumulated 22 AV in 4 Pats seasons. Connolly, at 45 AV, exceeds all but Edelman from the drafted list. Wendell is at 34 AV. Arrington at 20AV with the Pats. One can keep going, but I think the story becomes clear
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Wouldn't they want both? I read somewhere that the chance of late round draftees starting at some point are over 70%, whereas for an UDFA, it must be much less (roughly 2 make a team out of roughly 12 signings each year, and only some of those would ever start). So yes, UDFAs can kinda make up for the loss of late round draft choices since there are so many to choose from, but per player, the chances for success seem much greater if drafted. So I would think BB would want both and not easily/readily give up late rounders, who will be likely contributors of some sort
I'm pretty sure he wants both: the argument isn't that he *doesn't* value late picks, it's that he sees UDFAs as almost as equivalent. And it's not like you can trade the ability to sign an UDFA like you can a late-round pick.
I'd be interested to see that study. Maybe that 70% figure holds up league-wide (I'm skeptical), but it's definitely not as likely for the Patriots. Only 9 / 36 5th-7th picks in the last decade have started even 1 game for the Patriots (5 others started for other teams).
You're probably right that per player, late-rounders have better odds, but they don't seem to have significantly better odds. Since you can sign like 20 UDFAs, adding a slightly better UDFA doesn't move the needle that much.
As for easily / readily giving up late rounders, the proof is kind of in the pudding. They deal these picks all the time.
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This won't last forever, of course, but I imagine the Pats have a huuuge advantage in signing UDFAs these days. Assuming the $$ is similar, if they target someone I don't think it takes much convincing to sign them.
As others have alluded to, I think it is not the he values them at zero---it is more that he likely values the 5th-7th round picks somewhat less than other teams do, because (I suspect) he views them as lottery tickets that are worth only slightly more than a UDFA lottery ticket. The implication of that is that once you value them only a little relative to just having another UDFA slot, it gets much easier to be comfortable flipping one of those picks for an in-season upgrade (or in the case of Marsh, an in-season lottery ticket). Which, as SN notes, is very consistent with their use of those picks the last few years.
Also, I think he believes he can get more of those 5-7 round picks on draft day as needed by his normal moving around that he does.
https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2010/5/15/1473181/late-round-draft-picks-survival
"To understand the survival rate of late round draft picks, I looked at ten years worth of 6th and 7th rounders from the draft classes of 1999 through 2008. Here's a rundown of the top-line numbers: 857 players were drafted in the 6th and 7th rounds between '99-'08. A surprisingly high 73% (625) started at least one game in the NFL."
73% (627) is actually the number of players who played at least one game in the NFL during that span, a figure he calls "Survival Rate" through the rest of that piece. I'm not sure why he talks about starting games there. Only 400 players (about 47%) started at least one game.