Catching Controversy

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Sprowl

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Hurricane Sandy Leon finally dissipated late last summer, and turned into a pumpkin for the playoffs. Blake Swihart has the best hit tool and good athleticism for the position, but can he frame major league pitches and call a major league game? Christian Vazquez is the best defender of the three, but shows few signs of a major league bat.

Who starts? Who backs up and how much? Who gets stashed in the Bucket?

Sprowl sez:

Starter: Leon gets another half-season to show that July 2016 was no fluke. He's got the power.

Backup: Vazquez will never hit any better than he does now, and his defense is too good to leave in the minors.

Bucket: Swihart is not yet ready on defense, having missed most of last year recuperating from his misadventures in the outfield.
 

BuellMiller

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I think I agree...although, maybe a 1/2 season is too long to let Leon hit himself into/out of a job. (Especially if Swihart is tearing it up the IL). Maybe 40 games tops.
 

Koufax

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Sprowl has identified what will happen. What should happen is that Swihart should start because he is the most talented hitter in the bunch and he can refine his defensive skills as he goes along. Leon was a flash in the pan. Vazquez makes a splendid backup.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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Have to agree with Sprowl's take on this. Because of the lack of Options for Lyon and Vazquez this is the obvious solution. They shouldn't be restricting their options going forward until they get a better handle on the long term viability of these guys.

If I had to bet, Lyon will be putting up a sub .700 ops come June and Swihart will be raking in AAA with decent defence. Then we're shall see ..

I think Vazquez will be the long term backup regardless.
 

Saints Rest

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I'm in agreement with Sprowl, but I'm more bullish on Leon's hit tools. I think, like JBJ, he'll be very streaky, settling in to an overall slash line around .250/.300/.400.

I think CV is the ideal backup catcher.

Swihart needs to show improvement with the glove and some consistency with the bat. My guess is that barring injury, which is a tall order at C, we don't see Swihart until September, but that he could end up on the post-season roster.

PS: I don't think there is much controversy here so maybe a less inflammatory thread title? Catch as catch can?
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Starter: Vazquez. Leon was a mirage and they know it. Swihart needs more development. The hope is that Swihart dethrones him by mid-season. Vazquez's glove will carry him early.

Backup: Leon. Swihart isn't ready and they need to figure out if last year's possession by The Babe means he can hit enough to be a backup in case Vazquez simply can't hit at all.

Stash: Swihart. He needs work and this allows them to answer questions about the other two. I'm betting he's the guy by the ASB.
 
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Sprowl

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PS: I don't think there is much controversy here so maybe a less inflammatory thread title? Catch as catch can?
Nope. In the Age of Dombrowski, the big off-season deals all take place early, and there's nothing to keep the hot stove busy. SoSH needs all the controversy we can get, even if it's contrived.

 

mt8thsw9th

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settling in to an overall slash line around .250/.300/.400.
Perhaps his bat took a bit longer to come around (which can happen with catchers), but it should be noted his minor league line is .238/.325/.330. I think you give him some rope to start the season, but cut him loose as soon as Swihart/Vazquez force the issue.
 

shaggydog2000

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I'm expecting Leon to go back to being the borderline mlb hitter he was. Swihart will start in AAA, hit well, and be splitting time at C with Vazquez in the middle of the year, and be the starter by the final third.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Vazquez gets to jump into Craig Kimbrel's arms after the final out of the 2017 WS, having come on for Swihart in the 9th inning as a defensive sub in a 11-2 rout of the Dodgers.

Leon watches from the Dodgers bench, thinking what might have been -- and more than a little concerned that Halloween is just a couple weeks away.
 

The Gray Eagle

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In 518 career major league PAs, the Sandy Lion has a line of .254/.319/.362 with a .299 wOBA. That seems like a reasonable expectation for him this year.

Maybe he won't get there, but I think he wore down at the end of last season due to fatigue, and that his career numbers should be a good estimate to expect from him this time.

If he hits his career numbers, then a switch-hitting catcher with a .320 OBP with solid defense and a good arm is a solid player, not a problem or a hole in the lineup.

If he falls short of his career numbers, we have two other options already in house who might be good players too. Swihart has good offensive potential and can start in AAA. Vazquez looks more like his pre-injury self behind the plate this spring, and I expect him to be a great defensive catcher again this year. Maybe he will bounce back a bit offensively this year too.

The catching situation is in good shape.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
The thing about Leon that stuck out as implausible last year was his BABIP. He should have a respectable BABIP as a line-drive/ground-ball hitter in Fenway, but something like .315 is probably rational optimism. His ISO was also well above career norms, but that seems more reasonable for a 27-year-old finally getting steady PA and playing in a doubles-friendly ballpark. It probably makes sense to split the difference between 2016 and his career average there. So if you project the same K and BB rates as last year, with a .315 BABIP and .140 ISO, I get a line around .224/.310/.366. That seems reasonable, and it also happens to be fairly close to league average catcher offense for the AL last year (.230/.297/.387). And I think it's fair to call Leon's defense average-ish as well; this might even be giving him a bit too much credit. FG has him a few runs above average, but I don't think they incorporate framing, at which StatCorner has rated him below average.

So you have a guy with average-ish offense and defense; a guy with terrible offense (which could conceivably improve to OBP-heavy mediocrity at his peak) and plus defense; or a guy with above-average offense and below-average defense (which might improve to fringey in the short run and average in the long run). The fascinating thing is that they all seem to add up to average. Which is a good problem to have, really, but a tough one if you're the decision-maker.

EDIT: Answer to poll question: Leon. You start the year giving the lion's share of PT to the guy who probably won't hurt you too much anywhere, and let the other two fight it out to see who can bring the lagging part of his game up to speed quickest.
 
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DJnVa

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Starter: Leon gets another half-season to show that July 2016 was no fluke. He's got the power.

.
Man, I'm not sure giving someone 81 games to prove his July 2016 numbers makes sense.
 

glasspusher

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Nope. In the Age of Dombrowski, the big off-season deals all take place early, and there's nothing to keep the hot stove busy. SoSH needs all the controversy we can get, even if it's contrived.
Sprowl, I appreciate your effort to teach the controversy. Have you ever thought of doing PR for the fossil fuel industry, or possibly intelligent design?

I gotta go with Swihart. I don't see Sandy swinging a bat over the course of a season well enough to be an advantage over Swihart's defense. I would love to be proven wrong...
 

charlieoscar

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With Swihart turning 25 in just over two weeks from now I'm not sure how much more minor league time I want to give him. His BB/K ratio in 2016 (albeit just in a shirt time) was far better than it was in 2015 with Boston. Trading him this off-season might have been a better move if they don't think he can make the big-league roster.
 

lexrageorge

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With Swihart turning 25 in just over two weeks from now I'm not sure how much more minor league time I want to give him. His BB/K ratio in 2016 (albeit just in a shirt time) was far better than it was in 2015 with Boston. Trading him this off-season might have been a better move if they don't think he can make the big-league roster.
He's had a season cut short due to injury. A half season in AAA would not hurt him very much.
 

BroodsSexton

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Nope. In the Age of Dombrowski, the big off-season deals all take place early, and there's nothing to keep the hot stove busy. SoSH needs all the controversy we can get, even if it's contrived.

How about "FMK Catcher: Field, Minors, Keep"
 

Saints Rest

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Sprowl, I appreciate your effort to teach the controversy. Have you ever thought of doing PR for the fossil fuel industry, or possibly intelligent design?

I gotta go with Swihart. I don't see Sandy swinging a bat over the course of a season well enough to be an advantage over Swihart's defense. I would love to be proven wrong...
How would you feel if Leon could put up a line something like .270/.330/390 playing 3 out of every 4 games?
Because that's pretty much exactly what he has done over two years in a Red Sox uniform.
Yes, that includes an insanely hot run when he came up last year, but it also includes his dreadful 2015. My sense is that he has made a change that makes his 2016 more indicative and predictive of his 2017 but that we will have to deal with some cold stretches that make us think he's reverting to pre-2016.
 

mauf

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With Swihart turning 25 in just over two weeks from now I'm not sure how much more minor league time I want to give him. His BB/K ratio in 2016 (albeit just in a shirt time) was far better than it was in 2015 with Boston. Trading him this off-season might have been a better move if they don't think he can make the big-league roster.
The time to trade Swihart was 2-3 years ago. I've been consistently less bullish on him than the SoSH consensus, but even I think the right play now is to hang on to him and hope he's a late bloomer (as catchers often are) -- you're just not going to get much in trade right now.

If Swihart looks good in Pawtucket, you can trade him in a deadline deal, but the other options are modest enough that you'd probably promote him in that scenario.
 

Byrdbrain

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I think there is relatively little doubt the starter at the beginning of the season will be Leon but the much more interesting question is who will be the starter at the season.
I'm fully on team "Mugsy's Jock" for that as I see Swihart hitting too well in AAA to stay there very long but the D is obviously way behind Vaz.
I could certainly get behind the rest of his story as well.
 

redsoxstiff

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Vasquez number one for defense and calling games...Swihart as backup...
Leon is sucking hind tit...or traded.
 

simplicio

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I think there is relatively little doubt the starter at the beginning of the season will be Leon but the much more interesting question is who will be the starter at the season.
I'm fully on team "Mugsy's Jock" for that as I see Swihart hitting too well in AAA to stay there very long but the D is obviously way behind Vaz.
I could certainly get behind the rest of his story as well.
I think there's currently .423 OPS worth of doubt that Leon catches opening day. He's got a couple weeks left to show something, but spring has him looking pretty awful so far.
 

the moops

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Man, I'm not sure giving someone 81 games to prove his July 2016 numbers makes sense.
Why are we looking at just July numbers? His June + July + August numbers are 198 PA 350/394/571 which is incredible for any catcher.

Obviously his 85 PA where he really fell off in Sept/Oct 213/286/253 is troubling, but I think you need to give him a decent leash to see if he can fall somewhere in between those splits.
 

Byrdbrain

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I think there's currently .423 OPS worth of doubt that Leon catches opening day. He's got a couple weeks left to show something, but spring has him looking pretty awful so far.
I'd be very surprised if they will make the decision based on spring numbers.

I tend to agree that Leon is a mirage but I also think they will give him the shot. If Vaz could hit at all it would be a different story.
I don't think Swihart will get a shot since he hasn't caught since early last year and he didn't look very good when he did. Barring injury I think he'll be in Pawtucket for at least a couple of months to show what he can do.

I do have a pretty strong track record of being mostly wrong in my Sox predictions though so there is that.
 

simplicio

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I'd be very surprised if they will make the decision based on spring numbers.
I would be too, but at this point it's spring training numbers continuing a story he started writing last September. I'd have a lot more faith if he'd kept hitting through the end of the season.
 

Toe Nash

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Leon in 2016:
First 20 games: 1.212 OPS
Next 24 games: 1.001 OPS
Final 34 games: .554 OPS

Multiple people have pointed to his overall MLB line as what to expect going forward, but the hot 44 games makes up a huge portion of that. He basically has one full year played in MLB. In 612 minor league games he has a .654 OPS. OK, a lot of that was a long time ago. He hit for a .655 OPS in Pawtucket just last year!

I guess if you were sure he'd hit around a .650-700 OPS that would be fine -- as stated above it's average for a catcher (though maybe not average for a STARTING catcher; that average includes a lot of backup ABs). But it seems like he has just as much chance to be putrid for a couple months as he does of hitting well, and it's likely that you get something like his 2015 without getting into the good stuff.

But I suppose there's not another good option to start the year than to hope Leon can hit some.
 

Saints Rest

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Another way to look at 2016:
First 44 games; OPS about 1.100
Last 34 games: OPS .554
There were multiple articles about how he changed his approach; it's quite possible that the entirely of 2016, the good and the bad, better represent the current Sandy Leon than anything before 2016
 

glasspusher

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How would you feel if Leon could put up a line something like .270/.330/390 playing 3 out of every 4 games?
Because that's pretty much exactly what he has done over two years in a Red Sox uniform.
Yes, that includes an insanely hot run when he came up last year, but it also includes his dreadful 2015. My sense is that he has made a change that makes his 2016 more indicative and predictive of his 2017 but that we will have to deal with some cold stretches that make us think he's reverting to pre-2016.
I would love it! Maybe a little higher slugging. Also wouldn't mind Swihart's bat improving like Yadier Molina's did his first few years, but I'm a bit realistic. Looking back to Salty's 2013 season, .273 .338 .466, man, they let him go at the perfect time.

This is an interesting catching conundrum.
 

geoduck no quahog

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In his first four years of MLB experience, Leon appeared in 75 games, total.

Last year alone (his 5th), he appeared in 78 games. I think that's as much of an explanation for the drop off as anything. Let's see if it was about stamina, or regression before throwing him away.
 

dbn

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Can we add another question to the poll: "How many different ways will Sandy León's name be spelled in this thread? 3, 4, 5, 6+"
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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In his first four years of MLB experience, Leon appeared in 75 games, total.

Last year alone (his 5th), he appeared in 78 games. I think that's as much of an explanation for the drop off as anything. Let's see if it was about stamina, or regression before throwing him away.
Be careful about judging stamina based only on MLB appearances. He played in 114 games between AAA and MLB last year after playing a total of 100 the year before, 117 in 2014 and 138 in 2013. While it's possible he fatigued late in the year, it's not as though he was in uncharted territory in terms of playing time.
 

The Gray Eagle

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According to Abraham in the Glob, Leon played 53 games of winter league ball before last season, so if that's true, his total was 167 games played.

"Leon looked worn out, and understandably so. He played 53 games of winter ball in Venezuela before the season followed by 36 games for Triple A Pawtucket and 78 for the Red Sox.

“I did play a lot last season,” Leon said. “My body felt fine, but I went through some things. I expanded the strike zone because I got excited and tried to do too much. I felt good, but I was swinging at bad pitches. Every hitter goes through that.”

Said Farrell: “I think it was a combination. As much as he expanded the strike zone, that’s fatigue related as he tried to get started earlier against velocity. He was chasing up [in the strike zone]. Then teams fed him a heavy dose of off-speed.”

Leon played only four games of winter ball this year and came to camp feeling strong."
 

ToeKneeArmAss

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I've got to go with Vazquez (and thereby with Snod and Stiffy). His defense - including framing, arm, pitch blocking) are enough to offset his noodle bat. Plus pitchers appear to my eye to have confidence in him.

This team will play well enough on offense to carry a deficit there at catcher. Ymmv
 

Drek717

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With Swihart turning 25 in just over two weeks from now I'm not sure how much more minor league time I want to give him. His BB/K ratio in 2016 (albeit just in a shirt time) was far better than it was in 2015 with Boston. Trading him this off-season might have been a better move if they don't think he can make the big-league roster.
Swihart has never had a meaningful AAA sample to date. He barely got a cup of coffee there in 2015 before being called up to the ML level due to injuries and spent the rest of the year there. In 2016 he was the opening day catcher only to be sent down as soon as Vaz was demonstrably over the TJ surgery, then was up and down to play outfield before losing the rest of the year to a knee injury.

Giving Swihart a meaningful few months of additional time in AAA will not be a negative whatsoever for him, and at only 25 with about a year and change of ML service time it will also benefit the Red Sox as it extends control a bit further across his prime years.

I've got to go with Vazquez (and thereby with Snod and Stiffy). His defense - including framing, arm, pitch blocking) are enough to offset his noodle bat. Plus pitchers appear to my eye to have confidence in him.

This team will play well enough on offense to carry a deficit there at catcher. Ymmv
The pitching staff did very well down the stretch with Leon as the primary catcher though, so while Vaz might be good enough defensively to off-set his glove is he good enough to be better than Leon? That's the real question, and hinges as much on how bad Vaz' bat truly is versus how much of Leon's June to August hot streak was entirely an aberration. Lets not forget that Leon had generally been viewed as a glove first catcher thorughout much of his career until his hot streak last year, so the defensive gap isn't insurmountable with even a reasonable offensive divide favoring Leon.

I don't see any good reason why the best path forward isn't a Leon/Vazquez tandem with Leon getting a slightly higher share of the workload while Swihart gets to be the every day guy in Pawtucket. 2-3 months in we'll have a far better idea what we've actually got.
 

glasspusher

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I've got to go with Vazquez (and thereby with Snod and Stiffy). His defense - including framing, arm, pitch blocking) are enough to offset his noodle bat. Plus pitchers appear to my eye to have confidence in him.

This team will play well enough on offense to carry a deficit there at catcher. Ymmv
I was thinking in a similar vein, a good defensive catcher with a good offensive team. I was too busy working and going to college at the same time around Tony Peña's time in Boston, do you see a parallel of a possibility between an (obviously older) Peña and Vazquez today? Stay healthy, Vaz...
 

TonyPenaNeverJuiced

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I was thinking in a similar vein, a good defensive catcher with a good offensive team. I was too busy working and going to college at the same time around Tony Peña's time in Boston, do you see a parallel of a possibility between an (obviously older) Peña and Vazquez today? Stay healthy, Vaz...
In my mind, kind of. Offensively the comparison is apt - Peña's '90 & '91 seasons might be Vaz's ceiling if he were starting 140+ games a year. But, while Peña was a great receiver, pitch caller and staff manager with the Sox, his arm was not what it had been at it's height - considered one of, if not the, best in the majors throughout much of the 80s.

So if Vazquez hits like Tony time in Boston, catches like Tony time in Boston, and throws like a young Tony, he'd be better than Peña was with the Sox.

But it'd be so sweet if Vazquez hit like a 26-year old Tony Pena as well. Alas...
 

Cesar Crespo

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Swihart has never had a meaningful AAA sample to date. He barely got a cup of coffee there in 2015 before being called up to the ML level due to injuries and spent the rest of the year there. In 2016 he was the opening day catcher only to be sent down as soon as Vaz was demonstrably over the TJ surgery, then was up and down to play outfield before losing the rest of the year to a knee injury.
He has 273 PA at AAA. It's not huge, but it isn't meaningless. It's also spread over 3 years so maybe that is more your point. He has more AAA PA than Xander, Benintendi, Betts and JBJ when they were called up. JBJ was sent back down after 30 games and didn't reach the Majors again until 373 PA at AAA and didn't reach the Majors for good until putting up 761 PA. With all that said, getting another 100-200 PA in the minors isn't going to kill Swihart and considering he's coming off an injury, may benefit him.
 

koufax37

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I agree with Sprowl's general concepts, but I think Swihart is much closer to ready defensively than conventional wisdom, and Leon gets a lot less than a half season provided Blake hits well at the start. I think we all have a pretty good idea who Sandy is, which is better than his last 34 games and worse than his first 44 games. He will be okay, with occasional pop, but not a big time hitter you like to see up against good pitching. That is Blake's bar to get over, and I think we are looking at less than 200 Triple-A at bats for that to be proven.

I am happy to see Leon start, Vazquez back up and Blake get hot in Triple-A first after missing so much time last year, but I think it happens in May. I think that scenario is both best for his development as a catcher, and for our total catcher position WAR for the year, and more importantly our probability of winning games in October.
 

Koufax

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Blake might not get off to a hot start because of all of his injury time off. He'll probably start the season in AAA, but there's a good chance he ends the season as the no. 1 in Boston. I figure a call-up to the big club around the All Star game (barring injury to any of the catchers) and becoming the no. 1 catcher soon thereafter.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Swihart was re-assigned to the minor league camp this morning. Guess the only remaining question is which of Vazquez and Leon gets the larger share of the starts in the early going.

 

SouthernBoSox

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I hope a lot of members were able to watch the yesterday's ST game because it was basically a master class of how to control a running game. Vazquez is just such a difference maker back there. You forget because of the year off, but he's a very real game changing player behind the plate.

You just pray he becomes a non horrible hitter, he'd be insanely valuable. And I think he ends up as the starter because the pitchers will basically demand it.
 

phenweigh

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Swihart was re-assigned to the minor league camp this morning. Guess the only remaining question is which of Vazquez and Leon gets the larger share of the starts in the early going.
Per this morning's Springfield Republican:

As noted on MassLive.com March 23, the Red Sox could use specific starting pitcher-catcher combinations at least to begin the season.

Vazquez worked well with Eduardo Rodriguez late last year and so he'll likely be paired with Rodriguez and knuckleballer Steven Wright.

Wright posted a 6.46 ERA in 23 2/3 innings when Leon caught him last year. He recorded a 2.72 ERA in 36 1/3 innings when Vazquez caught him.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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Curious to see how this shakes out this week. I could see CV being the starter in a 60/40 situation getting Sale/Eddie/Wright to start the season. I haven't seen much of the ST games, but from the sounds of yesterday's game, CV and the cannon are back.
 

Mike F

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Unless Leon shows hitting more like last season, Vasquez will get 3 of the 5 pitchers. Of course I have crossed fingers that all three catchers hit well, albeit not as much Vasquez.
 

TheoShmeo

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I hope a lot of members were able to watch the yesterday's ST game because it was basically a master class of how to control a running game. Vazquez is just such a difference maker back there. You forget because of the year off, but he's a very real game changing player behind the plate.

You just pray he becomes a non horrible hitter, he'd be insanely valuable. And I think he ends up as the starter because the pitchers will basically demand it.
Unless Leon hits well and Vazquez hits poorly to start the season, it's hard to see Leon holding Vazquez off for too long regarding a majority of the Catcher innings. The only thing that sucks about that is that Shaughnessy made the same point and prediction in today's Globe, but I digress.

To me, the bigger question is, absent injury, how long it will take for Swihart to replace Leon at the major league level. If Leon struggles at the plate for a while, I assume we'll see a Vazquez-Swihart combo..
 

BuellMiller

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Unless Leon shows hitting more like last season, Vasquez will get 3 of the 5 pitchers. Of course I have crossed fingers that all three catchers hit well, albeit not as much Vasquez.
As long as he can do this from time to time:
 

PaulinMyrBch

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The faster we get Swihart up and move Leon, the happier I'll be. I don't believe that what we saw from Leon last year is sustainable. I'm totally OK with a CV-BS 60:40 split with pinch hit AB's going to Blake to add to his playing time.

Butler, or an emergency trade to get a backup, should we have to deal with an injury to someone (if we move Leon) is fine with me.
 

dbn

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Sorry for a fanboy-ish post, but I really hope Vaz hits well enough to be a regular starter for years to come, because I absolutely love watching good defensive baseball. Same reason I have a man crush on Bradley.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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Of course, Leon without an RBI in ST so far, hits 2 HR's today. Can't complain. Just still can't believe it. I saw him play live in 2015 and honestly thought it was the worst pro swing I'd ever seen.