Catching Controversy

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rotundlio

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I'm a bigger Swihart fan than most but I'm coming around on the idea of Swihart being the trade bait around the ASB if Leon's bat is anything near what it looks like (.750 - .850 ops range) and Vazquez can live anywhere above .600.
León isn't even arb-eligible until after next season, either. Amazing. (Edit: Mea culpa. Looks like he's Super Two?)

I figured there may be a GM out there willing to surrender an impact piece, but then I figured he'd ridden the pine in Washington for longer.

Win enough World Series and León/Vázquez could run in 2020. This country is capricious enough.
 
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Buzzkill Pauley

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I'm a bigger Swihart fan than most but I'm coming around on the idea of Swihart being the trade bait around the ASB if Leon's bat is anything near what it looks like (.750 - .850 ops range) and Vazquez can live anywhere above .600.
Swihart just doesn't that much trade value any more, unfortunately. Mostly because he burned a full year of MLB service time on the DL last season, but also because his ankle needs time to prove it can withstand 100+ games behind the plate, and he'll need at least enough time behind the dish catching MLB breaking pitches to show he isn't going to be a liability defensively.

Now, I think it's good he's still in the Sox organization, because I just don't see either Leon or Vazquez able to sustain an OPS significantly above .700 over the course of a full primary catcher year's of 450 plate appearances.

[edit] And Leon was 1st year arb eligible this season. It's Swihart who would be arb eligible after next season, if he should be called up this year for more than a couple weeks.
 

gryoung

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I continue to believe that trading Swihart would be long-term mistake. Defensively, he's at the bottom of the three - but the gap is not as great as the offensive gap where he's at the top of the list. The sample size is fairly small, but he sure seemed to be figuring out major league pitching last season just when he got injured. The catching talent in the Sox minor league system is thin and Swihart is pretty unique, considering his athleticism.
 

Saints Rest

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My gut tells me that catcher is a position that generally needs 3 players in a given year due to injury. Considering the seeming one or the other (offense or defense) of all three players, it seems like keeping all three for at least a season is the wise choice here. What's the option situation for each? Should Leon or Vaz enter into a prolonged slump or should Swihart show some improvements, how easy would it be to shuffle the three among the four catcher positions between Fenway and the Bucket?
 

Soxfan in Fla

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My gut tells me that catcher is a position that generally needs 3 players in a given year due to injury. Considering the seeming one or the other (offense or defense) of all three players, it seems like keeping all three for at least a season is the wise choice here. What's the option situation for each? Should Leon or Vaz enter into a prolonged slump or should Swihart show some improvements, how easy would it be to shuffle the three among the four catcher positions between Fenway and the Bucket?
Swihart is the only one with options, which is the big challenge.
 

Saints Rest

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The three catcher thing sounds logical, but in 2004 the Sox third catcher had 4 AB (Sandy Martinez). In 2007 it was 27 AB (Kevin Cash). 2013 it was 77 with Lavarnway.
I know correlation does not imply causation, but I wonder if those years suggest that catcher health may be a vital part of a championship run. On mobile at the moment, but it might be an interesting study.
 

Byrdbrain

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They won't cut bait yet but it certainly could be time to switch which catcher gets 3/5 and which gets 2/5.
As stated Swihart isn't knocking down the door and the defense seems good for the most part.
 

oumbi

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And just an update on the third wheel in this conversation. Vasquez has batted in 10 games. His slash line is:
.452/.485/.645, with an OPS of 1.130.

Clearly, his pasts indicates that this is not going to be sustain this level of production. But given the other choices at present, perhaps the Sox should play him while he is hot.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It appears they are already starting to go that way. Before yesterday, Vazquez caught Pomeranz and Rodriguez (and Johnson) while Leon caught Porcello, Price, and Wright. Yesterday Vazquez got the start with Wright on the mound. It's the kind of change of pace you might typically see because of a day game after a night game, except Vazquez started both games. I think it lends the move significance going forward.
 

Byrdbrain

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It seems to be that is already happening. He had been catching Pom and ERod with Leon getting the other three. Yesterday they had him out there catching Wright and I assume he will be out there today catching ERod per usual giving him three starts in a row.
I assume Leon will still have Porcello and Sale but let's see.
I would have done it differently with Vaz catching Porcello so you had some days off in between starts instead of Vaz 3 days in a row and Leon for 2.

I see RHF already said this but I had the whole damned post already typed out before I saw his post so here it is anyway.
 

Plympton91

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If John Farrell was going to turn Swihart into a LFer as soon as Vazquez got healthy last season, they should have traded Swihart in the winter of 2016 when he was at peak value. I made that argument all last spring and again all this winter.

Two years ago, he could have been the centerpiece of a trade for Cole Hamels. Now he's floundering AAA and they'd be lucky to get an injured middle reliever in a trade. Though Dombrowski seems to have a knack for getting teams to part with those coveted assets, I still think he should have either gotten way more than 6 games last April or traded at peak value as a catcher.

And none of that means they should give up on Swihart now that he's at the nadir of his value. No need to sell low. Hopefully, it's just a random slow start and he rebuilds a bunch of value going forward.
 

lexrageorge

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Swihart has played in all of 13 games in AAA this season. He had a 7-for-17 stretch that got followed up by a 0-for-20. He's now 3 for his last 7 at the plate with one of those 3 hits being a home run. Just saying....
 

koufax37

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I'm not giving up on Blake, and think SSS aside he still is on track to being an good MLB hitter...although I'm pretty sure they said that about Salty at that age too, so it is a projection he needs to gradually strengthen into a reality and is by no means a certainty.

But if Vazquez can be somewhat useful at the plate with his great defensive skills, he is a great asset to have, and I hope the recent switch to him having the strong end of 60/40 is a sign of what is to come. While I will happily enjoy really hot hitting for a couple weeks, the sample size is way too small to mean very much. But the individual at bats and quality of swings show some reasonable hope that he is on the upswing on the 600 OPS backup he has been through his first 400 MLB at-bats.

Sandy had a really fun 283 PAs in 2016, but the batter we are seeing now is consistent with the batter he has been most of his career, and I think he should slide into the happy long term life of a veteran backup catcher, and not be the >50% guy again in his career. And that said, Farrell probably overvalues "rapport", so I look forward to Vazquez getting a chance at some point to catch Sale and Porcello so we don't get rigid with the 60/40 split and build the rapport narrative too large.
 

Doooweeeey!

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SSS certainly, but Vazquez is slashing .341/.372/.466 and has looked capable at the plate.
He's cooled off after his hot April, but the expected return to his career stats has been slower than expected, IMO.
(April: 34AB .412/.444/.588. May: 54AB .296/.328/.389) There's a lot to like there.
His playing time has been allocated just right, having returned to backup duties after being tabbed briefly as the "starter" in early May.
 

joe dokes

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SSS certainly, but Vazquez is slashing .341/.372/.466 and has looked capable at the plate.
He's cooled off after his hot April, but the expected return to his career stats has been slower than expected, IMO.
(April: 34AB .412/.444/.588. May: 54AB .296/.328/.389) There's a lot to like there.
His playing time has been allocated just right, having returned to backup duties after being tabbed briefly as the "starter" in early May.
Is he the 60 or the 40 with Leon.
 

SouthernBoSox

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His defense has been pretty horrible this month too, he's in some sort of slump. Leon has been noticeably better
 

Doooweeeey!

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Is he the 60 or the 40 with Leon.
Well, technically 54% of the games played so far.

edit: Leon has 107 PA in his 24 starts, Vazquez has 94 in his 28 starts.
So it's really about 50/50 if you count the few AB Leon gets after Vaz is pulled late in games.

Vaz hasn't seemed to be over-exposed, however.
 
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phenweigh

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Extremely SSS, but I thought his 2-run double last night was on a very tough pitch. My reaction was; "Bad hitters don't make contact with that pitch, never mind squaring it up on the barrel."
 

grimshaw

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His defense has been pretty horrible this month too, he's in some sort of slump. Leon has been noticeably better
Mostly he needs to cut the shit with the throwing errors. 5 out of 6 of them already. He's like a right fielder who loves showing off his gun.

Edit: Side note - as a team the Red Sox have the most throwing errors in the majors with 26. Interestingly, two other top contenders -the Dodgers and Cubs are tied for 2nd worst with 23. Some are obviously rushing throws and general terrible 3b play, but there are way too many times they chuck it around with no chance of getting a runner.

They had 37 all last year.
 
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Doooweeeey!

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Extremely SSS, but I thought his 2-run double last night was on a very tough pitch. My reaction was; "Bad hitters don't make contact with that pitch, never mind squaring it up on the barrel."
I thought the same. The CW on Vaz has been he's good to the opposite field as a contact hitter. Last night's hit looked to my eye like an adjustment on the fly, on a pitch that wasn't too easy to do what he did with it, namely pull it to the huge gap in left-center.
 

Red Sox Physicist

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Well, technically 54% of the games played so far.

edit: Leon has 107 PA in his 24 starts, Vazquez has 94 in his 28 starts.
So it's really about 50/50 if you count the few AB Leon gets after Vaz is pulled late in games.

Vaz hasn't seemed to be over-exposed, however.
You mixed up the start counts. Leon has 28 starts at C and Vazquez now has 25 starts at C (including yesterday).
 

sean1562

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So what do we think of our catchers and their long term viability at the halfway point of the season?

Sandy Leon- OPS+ 74 bWAR 0.3 and not eligible for FA until 2021
Christian Vazquez- OPS+ 72 bWAR -0.5 and not eligible for FA until 2021
Blake Swihart- .592 OPS in AAA

Are we locked in until 2021 with these guys? Do we all think Vazquez is still a "generational" defensive talent? I don't know what else we have in the minors at the C position, but will this be an area of need in the coming years, or do we just hope one of Leon or Vazquez emerges?
 

grimshaw

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They are 32nd and 33rd respectively out of 37 among catchers with 150 at bats in wRC+. I don't think any of us were expecting miracles offensively, but this year they are just terrible rather than the historically bad 1st half production from 2016.

The defense is definitely good (I actually think Sandy is better), and the running game is controlled very well, but their overall value rates as replacement level to this point.

They do have Roldani Baldwin and Daniel Flores in the system, the latter being a great prospect, but he's only 16. Baldwin probably still has 2-3 years - he may get bumped up to high A this year - before he's ready and this has been his break out year.

Lucroy is the only big name FA, but has been awful this year. I can live with who we have. It's a shame that Swihart has shown nothing since that position is there for the taking.
 
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Snodgrass'Muff

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I can live with who we have, but I am curious if Swihart will ever resemble anything like his 22 year old self.
I've stopped hoping for it. With reports that his ankle still hurts, there's a decent chance his development was permanently knocked off track. That's not to say he'll never get back to the majors in any capacity, but I think the days of "Buster Posey-lite" are long gone.

As for the major league club, Vazquez at around a 70 wRC+ is passable so long as the lineup doesn't have other black holes in it. Unfortunately, 3B is also currently one, so they need to address that (which I'm sure they will). The free agent market has very few answers the next two winters. Nothing after this season worth talking about, but Mesoraco, Flowers and Grandal will be available by the winter after next season. None of them are exactly young, though.

I'm guessing the plan is going to be trying to trade for or sign a roughly league average bat to pair with Vazquez and to hope Baldwin's breakout is real. Flores is as exciting as a non-generational talent IFA goes (like Kevin Maitan), but he's far enough away that he shouldn't be any part of any future plans for the position. Maybe he's making himself a distant possibility in two years or so. For now, it's basically Baldwin or bust.
 

Cesar Crespo

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They do have Roldani Baldwin and Daniel Flores in the system, the latter being a great prospect, but he's only 16. Baldwin probably still has 2-3 years - he may get bumped up to high A this year - before he's ready and this has been his break out year.
It's Baldwins breakout year in regards to power. He's always hit for good contact and was projected to hit for good power. He doesn't strike out a lot but he never walks either. He's also not that great at Catcher. He and Pedro Castellanos are my new binkies now that Lin is on the big club and with Dubon and the Basabe's being traded.

Since June 4th, Roldani is hitting .392/.421/.637 in 107 PA with 4bb/13k, 10 doubles, 5 HRs.
Going further back to May 3rd and he's at .337/.366/.594 in 184 PA with 7bb/31, 16 doubles, 1 triple, 9 HRs.

He is currently in the midst of a 5 game hitting streak where he is 11/21 and has at least 2 hits in every game.

One interesting thing of note, he's always hit righties better than lefties outside of 2016. OPS vs R from 2014-2017: .820, .788, .646, 1.011
OPS vs L ,.436, .516, .809, .556

He also completely ditched 3b this year to concentrate solely on catching. FWIW, he was dreadful at 3b. Fielding percentage is a bad stat but .909 in 915 innings of work says something.
 

pantsparty

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So slightly related to catchers but mostly about managing and maybe there's a better thread for this, I've appreciated Farrell's willingness this year to pinch-hit for the catchers. It's been seemingly conventional wisdom that you never sub out a catcher because if the backup gets injured you basically auto-lose the game. Farrell has a few times this year pinch-hit for Vazquez and Leon a few times, and I think it's the right move to accept that if the unlikely occurs and the second guy gets injured you just take the L if it gives you a opportunity to get an advantage in an at-bat that's late and close.

It didn't end up with any results tonight, but I think pinch-hitting Lin for Vaz to get the LHB/RHP advantage and then Leon for Marrero for the same were great moves.
 

gryoung

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So slightly related to catchers but mostly about managing and maybe there's a better thread for this, I've appreciated Farrell's willingness this year to pinch-hit for the catchers. It's been seemingly conventional wisdom that you never sub out a catcher because if the backup gets injured you basically auto-lose the game. Farrell has a few times this year pinch-hit for Vazquez and Leon a few times, and I think it's the right move to accept that if the unlikely occurs and the second guy gets injured you just take the L if it gives you a opportunity to get an advantage in an at-bat that's late and close.

It didn't end up with any results tonight, but I think pinch-hitting Lin for Vaz to get the LHB/RHP advantage and then Leon for Marrero for the same were great moves.

Must have been Disarcina's ideas.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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So slightly related to catchers but mostly about managing and maybe there's a better thread for this, I've appreciated Farrell's willingness this year to pinch-hit for the catchers. It's been seemingly conventional wisdom that you never sub out a catcher because if the backup gets injured you basically auto-lose the game. Farrell has a few times this year pinch-hit for Vazquez and Leon a few times, and I think it's the right move to accept that if the unlikely occurs and the second guy gets injured you just take the L if it gives you a opportunity to get an advantage in an at-bat that's late and close.

It didn't end up with any results tonight, but I think pinch-hitting Lin for Vaz to get the LHB/RHP advantage and then Leon for Marrero for the same were great moves.
Which makes me wonder -- who on the Sox is currently in line to don the tools in that emergency scenario? I would have to assume that there is always somebody whose job that is, and that they know who they are. I would further assume that it's generally a bench player or other low-status guy, i.e., not a veteran starter. A healthy Holt would be a logical choice, but that's currently not an option. Travis, maybe?

(Or are my assumptions flawed and is this actually something that they would just improvise in the moment since it's so unlikely?)
 

sean1562

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what a disaster that was. what a pointless waste of a once promising young talent.
 

Plympton91

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Maybe next they.can have Devers try to catch. That would be as intelligent as moving Swihart to LF last year.

They should have traded Swihart for Hammels when they had the chance if they were just going to hand the job the Vazquez as soon as his elbow was sound and without regard to whether he could hit a ball out of the infield more than once a week.
 

lexrageorge

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If the "rigors" of playing LF were too much for Swihart, I tend to doubt he would have a long catching career.
 

iayork

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The defense is definitely good (I actually think Sandy is better), and the running game is controlled very well, but their overall value rates as replacement level to this point.
Just to add a little to their defense, the season is far along enough that framing numbers are starting to get reliable. Briefly, Vazquez is still elite (5th-best in baseball), adding the equivalent of around 8 extra runs for the team in the first half, and León is average. Details here.
 

joe dokes

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Beside nonsequiter in the dictionary, there's a screen shot of this post.
Nonsequiter is right next to iriny in my dictionary.

Farrell doesn't get hammered for it because it wasn't such a horrible thing even though it turned out badly.

Farrell doesn't get hammered for it because it was an organizational decision.
 
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Van Everyman

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Clearly LF is a much more dangerous position to play than catcher, it's just common sense.
It would be awesome if someone could photoshop in Beltre ramming into every LFer we have.

The thing I never really understood about Swihart was that they started him last year at the beginning of the season and then demoted him, like, a handful of games into the season. And IIRC he didn't look too bad with the bat or the glove.

I get the sense that DD—or someone who reports to him—was not a fan.
 

Plympton91

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It would be awesome if someone could photoshop in Beltre ramming into every LFer we have.

The thing I never really understood about Swihart was that they started him last year at the beginning of the season and then demoted him, like, a handful of games into the season. And IIRC he didn't look too bad with the bat or the glove.

I get the sense that DD—or someone who reports to him—was not a fan.
The person who is not a fan is John Farrell. While there is some aspect of organizational decision making, the choice of starting catcher among two players with options has to be heavily, heavily weighted toward the manager. If it isn't, then nothing is.

I don't even really begrudge the decision to go with Vazquez over Swihart. My only point, which I made repeatedly since they both reached AAA the first time, is that they should have picked one as the starter and traded the other one. Swihart will never have more value than he did in the winter of 2015-2016 unless he becomes the starting catcher again. This was completely mismanaged.
 

joe dokes

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I don't even really begrudge the decision to go with Vazquez over Swihart. My only point, which I made repeatedly since they both reached AAA the first time, is that they should have picked one as the starter and traded the other one. Swihart will never have more value than he did in the winter of 2015-2016 unless he becomes the starting catcher again.
Probably true, but I think the uncertainty over Vazquez's TJ surgery got in the way.
 

Zososoxfan

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It's not too late for Blake yet - he's 25. He's worth more to the Sox farm than in any trade, so he will be given another year to recover from his surgery before writing him off.