Celtics 2017 Salary Cap

JakeRae

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There is a lot of discussion of potential moves for the Celtics this offseason in the wake of the NBA lottery. A lot of that discussion is without the essential framing of the actual viability of proposed pathways under the cap. This thread is intended as a brief primer on the current cap status of the team. This initial post is a bit rough from a presentation standpoint. I will, hopefully, come back and edit it to improve presentation.

The relevant short version of the data is:

The Cap projects to $101 million.
The Celtics currently project to use $80.6 million.
The Celtics currently project to have cap space of $20.4 million.
To sign a max contract, they need to clear $10 million.
The Celtics currently have 12 players I am counting commitments to. For every player under 12, a $815,615 cap hold is added.

Now, a few notes. The current salary cap projects at $101 million based on my best ability to figure that out. I've also seen $103 million. At the former, a max free agent will cost $30.33 million (assuming 6-9 year veteran), at the latter, $31 million. I will assume the lower figure for all future calculations. Also, I am not listing cap holds for players who will only be kept if we don't sign a free agent. Thus, guys like Amir Johnson, Tyler Zeller, Jonas Jerebko, and Gerald Green are not included. Zeller has $8 million unguaranteed and could be a part of a trade.I include Demetrius Jackson because, assuming one player is removed to cut salary, Jackson is cheaper against the cap retained than cutting him is as his unguaranteed salary is less the $815,615.

The full roster salaries for players I am considering is:

Al Horford $27,734,405
Avery Bradley $8,808,989
Isaiah Thomas $6,261,394
Jae Crowder $6,796,117
Jaylen Brown $4,956,480
Marcus Smart $4,538,019
Kelly Olynyk $7,735,034
Terry Rozier $1,988,520
Demetrius Jackson $1,384,750
#1 Pick $7,026,240
Guerschon Yabusele $1,888,200
Ante Zivic $1,439,880

Note, any signing of a rookie for below their projection could shave a few dollars off these numbers.

The most obvious ways to clear space for a full max is to trade Bradley and Rozier ($10 million total cap savings) if only draft picks come back. Renouncing Olynyk and trading Smart also gets the team there ($11.6 million in cap savings). Trading Bradley and Jackson gets the Celtics within spitting distance of a max contract ($500,000 short) but not quite there. Just renouncing Olynyk leaves the team over $2 million dollars short, which is a much bigger gap.

For those who want to trade any of these guys for current NBA talent, whatever the salary that comes back obviously lowers the savings.

Please use the above as a guide for thinking about trade/FA signing possibilities.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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The least disruptive series of moves (I think) would be renouncing Kelly, stashing Yabusele again, and ditching Jackson.
 

plucy

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a rock and a hard place
A small difference, but per BI, Guerschon Yabusele (2016-16th, cap hold $2,247,480), Ante Zizic (2016-23rd, cap hold $1,645,200)
I think it is due to new CBA.
Anyway thanks for starting this thread. Twenty minutes ago I did the same calculations and came up with $81,122,629.
If the C's sign Hayward and draft Fultz, then trading Crowder and Bradley would make sense as to the distribution of minutes for the wings, and Bradley's contract situation. It would hurt to lose Crowder for his role and contract but that would open minutes for Brown.
If they could target a big with a few years on a rookie deal left, the C's could stay under the $70.7m threshold to offer a max deal. I haven't found a fit except for Portis and CHI first rounder, but ChIcago's cap and whether Hayward signs with the C's complicates a deal, so it would need to be resolved post 7/1. Still looking.
 

JakeRae

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A small difference, but per BI, Guerschon Yabusele (2016-16th, cap hold $2,247,480), Ante Zizic (2016-23rd, cap hold $1,645,200)
I think it is due to new CBA.
Anyway thanks for starting this thread. Twenty minutes ago I did the same calculations and came up with $81,122,629.
If the C's sign Hayward and draft Fultz, then trading Crowder and Bradley would make sense as to the distribution of minutes for the wings, and Bradley's contract situation. It would hurt to lose Crowder for his role and contract but that would open minutes for Brown.
If they could target a big with a few years on a rookie deal left, the C's could stay under the $70.7m threshold to offer a max deal. I haven't found a fit except for Portis and CHI first rounder, but ChIcago's cap and whether Hayward signs with the C's complicates a deal, so it would need to be resolved post 7/1. Still looking.
Do you know how they generate those cap holds. I took the 2016/2017 pick slots and multiplied by 1.2 (to account for the new CBA rule). Their numbers are the cap holds for 16 and 23 this year. Did the new CBA change the old rule that the cap hold is carried over from the draft year too? I can't find anything on that issue.
 
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pjheff

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The least disruptive series of moves (I think) would be renouncing Kelly, stashing Yabusele again, and ditching Jackson.
Even that series of moves is disruptive though. If the organization decides to renounce KO, waive Zeller / Mickey, allow Amir / Jerebko to walk, and stash Yabusele, then the team is one Horford concussion away from a situation in which Zizic is the lone big. Ainge would almost have to make a subsequent trade to add a frontcourt piece, most likely at the expense of backcourt depth.
 

plucy

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a rock and a hard place
Do you know how they generate those cap holds. I took the 2016/2017 pick slots and multiplied by 1.2 (to account for the new CBA rule). Their numbers are the cap holds for 16 and 23 this year. Did the new CBA change the old rule that the cap hold is carried over from the draft year too? I can't find anything on that issue.
I know Keith Smith talked about this issue when the new CBA came out. I'll look for the article.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Even that series of moves is disruptive though. If the organization decides to renounce KO, waive Zeller / Mickey, allow Amir / Jerebko to walk, and stash Yabusele, then the team is one Horford concussion away from a situation in which Zizic is the lone big. Ainge would almost have to make a subsequent trade to add a frontcourt piece, most likely at the expense of backcourt depth.
Definitely has to thread the needle a bit. There may be some vet minimum types to help ease the pain.
 

plucy

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a rock and a hard place
Do you know how they generate those cap holds. I took the 2016/2017 pick slots and multiplied by 1.2 (to account for the new CBA rule). Their numbers are the cap holds for 16 and 23 this year. Did the new CBA change the old rule that the cap hold is carried over from the draft year too? I can't find anything on that issue.
The new CBA calls for a 45% increase to the rookie scale to be phased in over three years.
The top slot for the #1 pick was 5,091,500 under the old CBA. Increase it by 15 percent to 5,855,225, then by 20% to 7,026,270 since the new CBA uses the 120% of max as the slot.
 

HomeRunBaker

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But why would Yabu agree?
Yeah. I'm sure part of the pre-draft arrangement with Yabusele's agent was for one year of stashing. Ainge himself said that he would be in Boston as part of our 15-man roster next season.
 

JakeRae

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The new CBA calls for a 45% increase to the rookie scale to be phased in over three years.
The top slot for the #1 pick was 5,091,500 under the old CBA. Increase it by 15 percent to 5,855,225, then by 20% to 7,026,270 since the new CBA uses the 120% of max as the slot.
Yes. The 20% rule clearly applies to a 2016 pick too. But, why would the increases to the 2017 scale apply to a 2016 pick? Under the old CBA, the cap hold was the draft year scale. I don't see anything about that changing. If it hasn't, my numbers are correct. If there was also a change such that stashed players have cap holds equivalent to their slot in the present year draft, then the BI numbers are correct. The intent to increase the rookie scale over the next three seasons is both true and irrelevant to this question which is purely about cap holds for prior year draft picks.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
Yeah. I'm sure part of the pre-draft arrangement with Yabusele's agent was for one year of stashing. Ainge himself said that he would be in Boston as part of our 15-man roster next season.
Is next year the start of two way contracts? And does the roster bump to 16? I don't know if Yabu would be an option for that, being a first round scale contract. But that could be where Nader comes in, the last man on the bench, but on a two way contract with Maine.
 

plucy

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a rock and a hard place
Yes. The 20% rule clearly applies to a 2016 pick too. But, why would the increases to the 2017 scale apply to a 2016 pick? Under the old CBA, the cap hold was the draft year scale. I don't see anything about that changing. If it hasn't, my numbers are correct. If there was also a change such that stashed players have cap holds equivalent to their slot in the present year draft, then the BI numbers are correct. The intent to increase the rookie scale over the next three seasons is both true and irrelevant to this question which is purely about cap holds for prior year draft picks.
Article VII, Sect. 4e

Page 186 of the CBA

Great tool.

(4) For purposes of this Section 4(e), in the event that a First Round Pick does not sign a Contract with the Team that holds his draft rights during the Salary Cap Year immediately following the Draft in which he was selected (or during the same Salary Cap Year in which he was drafted if the Draft occurs on or after July 1), the “applicable Rookie Scale Amount” for such First Round Pick means, with respect to any subsequent Salary Cap Year, the Rookie Scale Amount that would apply if the player were drafted in the Draft immediately preceding such Salary Cap Year at the same draft position at which he was actually selected.
 

JakeRae

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Article VII, Sect. 4e

Page 186 of the CBA

Great tool.

(4) For purposes of this Section 4(e), in the event that a First Round Pick does not sign a Contract with the Team that holds his draft rights during the Salary Cap Year immediately following the Draft in which he was selected (or during the same Salary Cap Year in which he was drafted if the Draft occurs on or after July 1), the “applicable Rookie Scale Amount” for such First Round Pick means, with respect to any subsequent Salary Cap Year, the Rookie Scale Amount that would apply if the player were drafted in the Draft immediately preceding such Salary Cap Year at the same draft position at which he was actually selected.
So, my original post appears to be correct then.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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So, this news seems to help the Celtics in their pursuit of Hayward. I think.


Woj: With Paul George, Gordon Hayward left off All-NBA teams, Pacers and Jazz lose chance to re-sign them to 5-year, $207M super-max contracts.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
Boogie didn't make it, who knows if he would have beaten out Deandre if he would have stayed in Sacramento.

It was made known that the fear of having to commit that much to Boogie was a reason to trade him.
 

JakeRae

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The base went up for 17-18, which applies to Yabu and Zizic. Multiplying by 120% for a cap hold is correct.
I show a 19% increase in the base for 17-18. I don't understand that, thought it was 15%.
You are correct. I misread. BI has the right numbers. I will amend my original post accordingly later tonight. That, obviously, makes clearing cap space a bit harder than I initially thought.
 

the1andonly3003

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Jul 15, 2005
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Even that series of moves is disruptive though. If the organization decides to renounce KO, waive Zeller / Mickey, allow Amir / Jerebko to walk, and stash Yabusele, then the team is one Horford concussion away from a situation in which Zizic is the lone big. Ainge would almost have to make a subsequent trade to add a frontcourt piece, most likely at the expense of backcourt depth.
certainly hope Zeller/Mickey can be converted into future assets, if not used as part of larger trades

never too early to refill the cupboard down the line
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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certainly hope Zeller/Mickey can be converted into future assets, if not used as part of larger trades

never too early to refill the cupboard down the line
I'm not sure anyone would give up anything of value for either player. But yes, it would be nice and I'm sure DA will make the requisite phone calls before cutting them loose.

Edit: to correct typo and add *not
 
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HoyaSoxa

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I'm sure anyone would give up anything of value for either player. But yes, it would be nice and I'm sure DA will make the requisite phone calls before cutting them loose.
Zeller's non-guaranteed deal would seem to have value to someone looking for cap relief, but doesn't it require taking back close to $8 million from any potential trade partner? Seems like that only happens if you strike out on your primary targets.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Zeller's non-guaranteed deal would seem to have value to someone looking for cap relief, but doesn't it require taking back close to $8 million from any potential trade partner? Seems like that only happens if you strike out on your primary targets.
Sorry, that was a typo. Should have read 'I'm *not sure'. I'll edit the original.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Stupid question. Rosters are expanding from 15 to 17 this year. Are NBA teams only required to have 12 players under contract even though they have 17 roster spots? If not, does having the 2 extra roster spots add an additional ~$2mil to the Celtics books?

I'm guessing players 13-17 cost peanuts anyway but at 900k each, that's $4.5 mil that could be allotted to Hayward.
 

Montana Fan

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Has anyone run into an article comparing the available FA dollars for the 30 teams to the expected payouts for this FA class? For example, the pool of dollars available to spend versus the expected payouts for the FA's?

It seems there is not as much money available this offseason and there might be a few deals to be had that are well below the ~$20 mil per season deals that are projected for seemingly every available FA.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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HomeRunBaker

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Zeller's non-guaranteed deal would seem to have value to someone looking for cap relief, but doesn't it require taking back close to $8 million from any potential trade partner? Seems like that only happens if you strike out on your primary targets.
Whenever Ainge is in rebuilding mode he has a long history of maintaining flexibility in making a "big splash" trade by always having large expiring contracts available to move for the right guy. We never get the KG deal done without the prior years swap of LaFrentz' additional $10m for Theo Ratliff's expiring $10m that was crucial and necessary for that trade to happen. Two years ago Ainge overpaid/signed Amir Johnson to a 1+1 with a team option for $11m(?) to have the ability to use him in the same manner......last summer he restructured Amir's to the same 1+1 with team option while doing the same with Zeller thus allowing us to have close to $20m in expiring contracts for a big deadline deal.

This summer will be interesting and busy with a need to move one of our guards or the #1 pick (presumably Fultz). I'm not expecting a big FA signing but who knows what Hayward is thinking.....he did sign an offer sheet with Charlotte to leave Utah once already. There is a chance that one of our veteran depth guys or another big is with us next year on a similar 1+1 contract to allow us the opportunity to make the big splash trade should it become available at next years deadline.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Is next year the start of two way contracts? And does the roster bump to 16? I don't know if Yabu would be an option for that, being a first round scale contract. But that could be where Nader comes in, the last man on the bench, but on a two way contract with Maine.
Yabusele was a 1st round pick and bound to the terms for 1st round picks in his slot agreed upon in the CBA. Nader was a second-round pick and they do not have those same "guaranteed" rights of a 1st rounder. 2nd rounds don't have a salary scale so our 37th pick the way todays agent/GM game is played will receive a multiple year guaranteed deal.....the difference is that these are much more team-friendly on the backend (typically years 3 and 4). Teams can be much more creative to protect their interests thanks to The Gilbert Arenas Rule....which also applied the following year with the Carlos Boozer fiasco when he conned a blind man (Cavs owner at the time Gilbert Gund)

Look at Jordan Mickey and Demetrius Jackson's contracts as examples of what to expect to be given to our 37th pick. Jackson was a 3+1 with a team option for 4th year and $5.5m at full value. Mickey signed a 2+2 deal with I believe the highest amount guaranteed to a 2nd rounder at the time.....in exchange for those valuable and cheap 2 additional team option years had he panned out. We also maintain Bird Rights on the player by structuring these deals in this manner.

Nader is far different as he was going to be an undrafted player had his agent and Ainge not agreed prior to the draft to have him sign with Maine which allows us to retain his rights while working on his craft as a role player in the same system we use in Boston......as opposed to signing him as a training camp invite and then later waiving him as we didn't have a spot on our 15-man roster for him last year. These deals have to be win-wins and this passes the test as the Celtics retain the rights of a young player without using up a spot on the 15-man roster (which is unique) while playing in our system in Maine while Nader gets the advantage of having been an NBA 2nd round pick on his resume which is tremendous value in future overseas deals if he doesn't make it in the NBA.
 

ishmael

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Has anyone run into an article comparing the available FA dollars for the 30 teams to the expected payouts for this FA class? For example, the pool of dollars available to spend versus the expected payouts for the FA's?

It seems there is not as much money available this offseason and there might be a few deals to be had that are well below the ~$20 mil per season deals that are projected for seemingly every available FA.
Lots of moving pieces, but at least 25 teams could maneuver under the cap if they really tried: http://hoopshype.com/salaries/

Other factors that make things hard are figuring out which players look to re-up this year (i.e. Greg Monroe has a $17M one year option) and which teams will go the FA route vs. using Bird rights (i.e. Boston pursuing Hayward/Millsap vs. re-signing Kelly and other holdovers).