Celtics Draft Jayson Tatum at #3
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Apparently Tatum didn't shoot the 3 much at all in AAU ball and had hardly any attempts from NBA range at Duke this year, but I still think he's a decent bet to develop NBA range. He had the 5th highest FT% for freshman non-guards in the past 25 years. FWIW, Andrew Johnson's model projects him as a better shooter than Fultz.
This highlights how rare his shooting/scoring season was. He had >100 3p attempts, so it's not nothing, but for a forward to shoot as well as he did, as a freshman, in a major conference, is nearly unprecedented over recent history. Searching for Freshman forwards with at least 100 3pa who hit at least 30% of them, and shot at least 80% from the line since 2009 (chosen pretty arbitrarily) returns a small list (26) of mostly small conference guys. Tatum, Markkanen, and Danjel Purifoy of Auburn all did it this season, and there's not much after those 3. Of that group, Tatum leads the way in rebounding and blocks, which emphasizes how rare those shooting stats are for a guy with legit big man size/skills.
The flip side, I guess, is that there aren't a lot of good comps for a Tatum type on which to project NBA success, but I'll choose to see that as a rare combination of skills at a young age, rather than a tweener with no dominant skill, until proven otherwise.
Not terribly worried about Tatum's ability to extend his shot to NBA range given his mechanics and his size. For example, see below.
I'd like to see him gather the ball higher because as it is, his release is a bit slow, especially in a screen-heavy offense. But given that everything else looks good, I don't think that's a major tweak.
His legs are also extremely stiff on the landing. Its jarring to watch, I don't think Ive ever seen a pro shoot like that.
It might be a temporary curative to his drifting problem. He saw a shooting coach last season to fix his problem of drifting on the jumper (which made him really streaky early in the season). The rigidity in the legs came after that, so I'm hoping that this was just a temporary measure to fix the other problem.
I'd like to see him gather the ball higher because as it is his release is a bit slow, especially in a screen-heavy offense. But given that everything else looks good- strong base, good balance and footwork- I don't think that's a major tweak.
Interesting that his shooting motion looks more fluid off the bounce (in the workout video WBCD posted), vs. the 3 point shooting video posted previously. I'm no expert, but he had a weird looking forward hop and stiff landing when shooting spot up 3's. Ball was going in though.
does he have trouble driving to the hoop going left? cause his step back and turnaround going left look pretty solid to me.
To my eyes, he looks like an average (or maybe slightly above average?) athlete at his position. But, definitely looks like he has some nice size, strength and length; and looks like he can comfortably add more muscle to play the small-4 position.
To my eyes, he looks like an average (or maybe slightly above average?) athlete at his position. But, definitely looks like he has some nice size, strength and length; and looks like he can comfortably add more muscle to play the small-4 position.
Yes, his dribble drive with the left hand looks weak to me. Defenders will force him to take that jumper every time. They say he's a hard worker. In my view the left hand should be the first thing he works on.
But that's the point. He's fine going to his left to shoot the jumper. He has that nice Pierce-like step back. Tatum is not going to get to the rim going left against most NBA defenders at his present skill level. If he can't get to the rim, it makes the jumper easier to deefend.
Gotcha.
Is this from more than watching the minute long videos posted here?
Goes left here:
I get that he may not be great at it, but if he knows this, he develops his game in other ways.
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Maybe this is sarcasm but he got to the rim by dribbling with his left hand (which DrewDawg was trying to prove by posting the videos)
I understand that and was not arguing with DrewDawg. In the NBA he will need to be capable of finishing with the left. Pierce had a great left hand.
And remember, this all started because a poster said that in the 2 minute long videos he didn't think it looked like he could go left.
Do we have any more than that?
Well, in my defense, I watched the finals of the ACC playoffs, also the game Duke lost to NC State and Duke's loss to Syracuse in February. I watched the videos on Draft Express in addition to what was posted here.
And if you rewatch the video of Ainge's press conference introducing Tatum, he said the same thing about Tatum's left hand. He has to work on it.
And if you rewatch the video of Ainge's press conference introducing Tatum, he said the same thing about Tatum's left hand. He has to work on it.
It is a good sign that we are nit-picking at a 19 year old's abillity to go left in the NBA as something he needs to work on going forward. If that is his biggest offensive issue as a 19 year old first year pro, Ainge is going to look really good with this pick.
The Iverson "Practice?" Video seems appropriate, but here's Ben Simmons (1-3 3PA in college), Gerald Henderson Jr. (32.7 NBA 3FG%), and Sergio Rodriguez (33.7 3FG%) going 16-19 from behind the arc. Effortlessly.
It's practice.
It's practice.
I know others have pointed the weird hop that Tatum takes in his shot. The biggest thing that I notice is that he doesn't get a lot of lift in his three point shot. Kind of like a vintage set shot. He's tall enough that it might not matter but it's definitely not Ray Allen's form.
Not sure I'd say Henderson's shot looks effortless and I think we'd all be pretty happy if Tatum shot 33% from the NBA 3P line next year.
Simmons looks like he could be a great spot-up shooter though who knows how many of those shots he'll get. He also looks to me if he is bored. It's going to be terrific to watch him play next year.
Thanks man. I thought he was gonna hit 90% from deep this season til you brought the truth.
Assuming DA is right that Tatum is the best player in the draft, and shooting is his calling card, I want the over on 1/3 of next year's treys.
Perhaps a diligent poster could document how gradual 3pt shot improvement is the norm for high picks, and I know there is a body of research showing the Euro shooters improve fairly dramatically from year one to year two, but I'm still hoping Tatum can light it up from jump.
The guy is 6'8". Nobody that size takes a true jump shot when taking threes, especially not when they are in practice.
This. What's the elevation difference between Tatum's "set shot" and IT jumping 5 feet off the floor on every 3 attempt?
Not all of us, no. The league 3FG% is 35.8%, Jaylen Brown shot 34.1%. If you'll be pretty happy with 33%, what are your actual expectations?
Well yeah, that's why I mentioned his height.
But just for reference, at three inches shorter:
The expectations should never be for a 20-year old rookie to step in and be league average at anything right out of the gate. 33% from 3 would be a fine base for Tatum to improve in his second and third seasons moving forward.
Jaylen played in 78 games and went 46-135 from 3P land. If he had made 6 fewer, he would have been at 29.6%. If he had made 8 more, he would have been at 40%. We're not talking about a ton of shots here.
I suspect Tatum will be in this range. I think the better indicator of his progress will be how many 3Ps he can get up. If he has at least 160 by the end of the year, he's playing decent minutes and thus helping the team.
Officially signed (along with Zizec) over the weekend.
http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/pressrelease/celtics-sign-jayson-tatum-ante-zizic
http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/pressrelease/celtics-sign-jayson-tatum-ante-zizic
Nice line for Tatum for his first summer league game: 8 for 17 from the field, 4 for 5 from the foul line, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, only 1 turnover, a very impressive 5 steals, with a +/- of 7. Fultz was 6 for 16, 3 for 4 from the line, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 4 turnovers, only 1 steal (but 3 blocks), for a +/- of -12. It's only one little summer league game, but Ainge so far doesn't look dumb at all. (Jaylen had a monster game, marred only by 7 turnovers -- ouch.)