Celtics Draft Jayson Tatum at #3

DJnVa

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Any chance the discussion of unstoppable guys gets a new thread?
 

Cesar Crespo

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It's a shame we didn't even really see what should have been McGrady's prime as he was a shell of his former self by age 26-27..
I didn't see this with all the Alex English shade, but Tracy McGrady, Anfernee Hardaway and Grant Hill were the injuries that saddened me the most in my teens and tweens.
 

joe dokes

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I didn't see this with all the Alex English shade, but Tracy McGrady, Anfernee Hardaway and Grant Hill were the injuries that saddened me the most in my teens and tweens.
Mine was Bill Walton. Scored 44 (21-22FG!!) in the NCAA final when I was about 12. 4 injury-marred but ultimately successful seasons in Portland, then several years of inactivity or obscurity, then his dead-cat bounce with the Celtics before another injury.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Nice breakdown of Tatum's season thus far (complete with video!) here: http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/jayson-tatum-celtics-news-stats-highlights-scouting-report-kyrie-irving-al-horford/ltazvx8nmwwr18w7l9bthgwu7. One thing that is highlighted is how different Tatum's game is from what was projected - and almost solely for the better.

Has the collective "intelligence" of NBA pundits ever gotten two consecutive picks as wrong as JB and JT?

Another nugget:

The assignment of guarding the opposing team’s best perimeter player usually goes to Jaylen Brown or Marcus Smart, leaving Tatum to match up with the likes of Andre Roberson, Kyle Anderson, Norman Powell and Malcolm Brogdon at the start of games. Tatum shines as a disruptor when he’s in those positions, using his long wingspan to pick off cross-court passes and protect the rim as a help defender. In addition to the 18 steals and 25 deflections he’s recorded in 18 games, Tatum has blocked 15 shots and held opponents to 60.5 percent shooting at the rim.
 

slamminsammya

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Has the collective "intelligence" of NBA pundits ever gotten two consecutive picks as wrong as JB and JT?
People didnt exactly think Tatum was a chump - the consensus was that he was between the 2nd and 5th best player in the draft.

As far as all time consecutive picks that were underrated, how about the Kings selecting Hassan Whiteside in 2010 at 33rd overall and then going and taking IT as the 60th pick in 2011?

Edit: Or Golden State taking Steph Curry in 2010 followed by Jeremy Lin? I guess Lin was undrafted. The judges would also accept Klay Thompson at 11 in 2011 followed by Draymond at 35.

Or Joe Dumars at 18 in 1986 followed by Dennis Rodman in the 3rd round in 1987?

How about Stockton at 15 in 84 followed by Malone at 13 in 85?

Lots of options.
 
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lovegtm

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People didnt exactly think Tatum was a chump - the consensus was that he was between the 2nd and 5th best player in the draft.
It's not that Tatum was underrated; it's that everything people thought would be an issue wasn't.
- not great athleticism
- poor defense
- too much midrange
- hard time extending to 3
- ball stopper

He was ranked highly because of his advanced iso game, and he's barely used that, even on the 2nd unit.

So I'd say the collective intelligence was more wrong on JT than JB. JB is becoming the best version of himself, whereas Tatum is quickly becoming a very different thing than everyone thought he was.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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People didnt exactly think Tatum was a chump - the consensus was that he was between the 2nd and 5th best player in the draft.

As far as all time consecutive picks that were underrated, how about the Kings selecting Hassan Whiteside in 2010 at 33rd overall and then going and taking IT as the 60th pick in 2011?

Edit: Or Golden State taking Steph Curry in 2010 followed by Jeremy Lin? I guess Lin was undrafted. The judges would also accept Klay Thompson at 11 in 2011 followed by Draymond at 35.

Or Joe Dumars at 18 in 1986 followed by Dennis Rodman in the 3rd round in 1987?

How about Stockton at 15 in 84 followed by Malone at 13 in 85?

Lots of options.
I didn't mean underrated; I meant wrongly evaluated. Plus hyperbole but the point stands (at least insofar as message boarding goes).
 

nighthob

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It's not that Tatum was underrated; it's that everything people thought would be an issue wasn't.
- not great athleticism
- poor defense
- too much midrange
- hard time extending to 3
- ball stopper
Right, these were the things he kept getting dinged for, although people should have noted the midseason improvement last year in three point shooting. The ball stopper thing was always more of a "the best scorer on an a college team" thing than a real worry (in high school he had a pretty good feel for passing).
 

lovegtm

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Right, these were the things he kept getting dinged for, although people should have noted the midseason improvement last year in three point shooting. The ball stopper thing was always more of a "the best scorer on an a college team" thing than a real worry (in high school he had a pretty good feel for passing).
Yeah, there's a very real tendency for NBA "numbers-guys" to signal how savvy they are by dinging guys who have elite mid-range games, without thinking about how those guys can evolve in the right system, and how the base skillset can translate. We get it, you're cool enough to think that Rudy Gay and Melo were overrated, cool story bro.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Right, these were the things he kept getting dinged for, although people should have noted the midseason improvement last year in three point shooting. The ball stopper thing was always more of a "the best scorer on an a college team" thing than a real worry (in high school he had a pretty good feel for passing).
2nd best scorer. Kennard had him beat in every offensive category.
 

Fishy1

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Yeah, there's a very real tendency for NBA "numbers-guys" to signal how savvy they are by dinging guys who have elite mid-range games, without thinking about how those guys can evolve in the right system, and how the base skillset can translate. We get it, you're cool enough to think that Rudy Gay and Melo were overrated, cool story bro.
All of this is right, and I'll add that anyone who's watched these Celtics teams the past few years knows how important that part of the game can be when you desperately need a bucket. Do you want mid-range jump shots to be an essential part if your offense? No. But having guys who can make those shots efficiently when you need them is damn helpful.

Of course, it's better to have guys like Kyrie, LeBron, or Steph who can make more efficient shots whenever you need them, but those guys are - well, they're LeBron, Kyrie and Steph.

But late possession tough shots are needed throughout the game, especially from second unit offenses. One of the most bizarre things about this team so far as that those shots have continued to fall to Marcus Smart and Rozier - who are really horrid shooters - when guys like Morris and Tatum (even Kyrie sometimes!) are on the floor. If that changes, this team will be much more efficient.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Tatum making the shot over Jackson, then the cut to his mom looking unimpressed, was high comedy:

 

benhogan

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Tatum has that Old Man game in his repertoire: up fakes down low wrap around passes, euro step to the basket, lean in layups with the opposite hand, mid-range body upped fadeaways, two hand dunks instead of one-handed tomahawk slams and I love it. Incredibly controlled and mature game for his age, very unique.

Looking forward to seeing a Jaylen Brown type training program this offseason and the added strength, a future Paul George w/a better 3pt stroke.
 
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Sam Ray Not

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True shooting percentages of the top 5 picks:

Fultz .372
Ball .383
Tatum .636
Jackson .445
Fox .455

Would be especially hilarious on a graph — a giant middle finger. :)
 

DannyDarwinism

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Tatum has that Old Man game in his repertoire: up fakes down low wrap around passes, euro step to the basket, lean in layups with the opposite hand, mid-range body upped fadeaways, two hand dunks instead of one-handed tomahawk slams and I love it. Incredibly controlled and mature game for his age, very unique.

Looking forward to seeing a Jaylen Brown type training program this offseason and the added strength, a future Paul George w/a better 3pt stroke.
There's a lot of another former Pacer in his offensive game. He's Danny Granger, cubically transformed.
 

Imbricus

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...mature game for his age...
I was thinking this same thing last night. How rare is it to find a 19-year-old with a game that mature? He has a really good sense of when to shoot, when to pass, when to exploit a hole and drive, where to be on defense. Contrast where he is vs. Jaylen through his first 24 games. Night and day.
 

JakeRae

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I was thinking this same thing last night. How rare is it to find a 19-year-old with a game that mature? He has a really good sense of when to shoot, when to pass, when to exploit a hole and drive, where to be on defense. Contrast where he is vs. Jaylen through his first 24 games. Night and day.
One way to contextualize this is to look at historical TS%. Tatum's is the best ever for a 19 year old. For a player under 20, he is second only to Bynum. Among the top 20 seasons ever for players 20 and under, he is the only 19 year old other than Bynum or Biedrins to rank in the top 20. (700 minutes minimum, selected to keep Tatum on the list but filter out guys who played less.) Thad Young and Kyrie are the first other 19 year olds who weren't centers. They shot .570 and .566, respectively as rookies. Tatum is at .636. The best true wing of a similar age is Kobe, who ranks 51st at .548. After that is Devin Booker at .535.

In short, Tatum's scoring efficiency is historically good for a 19 year old. It's historically good by a very big margin for a 19 year old who isn't a center.

More generally, his BPM of 3.2 ranks 3rd all time for 19 year olds behind only Kyrie (3.3) and T-Mac (4.0). It is 16th all time for under 20 year olds (just ahead of KG and Towns). Only 13 19 year olds have ever posted a positive BPM. That list includes the aforementioned 3 plus Davis, Drummond, Lebron, KG, Howard, Deng, Thad Young, Biedrins, Kobe, and Melo.
 

benhogan

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That's great, thanks, Jake.

So far statistically he is one of the all-time greatest age-related wings in his first year.

Let's take a step back, put the analytics aside, and look at Tatum's off the court decision making:
1. Decides to play for the most respected college coach and program in the NCAA (I hate Duke, but its a fact)
2. Becomes a pro and moves his mother into his building to keep him grounded/focused.
3. Pre-draft: Tatum workouts for all NBA teams interested in him. He didn't try to pick and choose a team (ie Lonzo, Jackson)
4. Started working with well known St Louis trainer, Drew Hanlen, at the age of 13.
5. Mentored at a young age by Bradley Beal.
6. Extremely ambitious, aspires to be a HOFer and realizes that he has to be responsible for his off the court behaviour.

Here is a great interview with Tatum and Hanlen(he is awesome):

https://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/story/2017-nba-mock-draft-jayson-tatum-duke-scouting-report-details-suns-lakers-celtics-050417

FYI- Hanlen see's Tatum as a hybrid of Carmelo and Paul George.

Tatum is going to be an absolute beast, thanks, Danny.
 
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Aug 24, 2017
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The Duke decision becomes even smarter when you take into account that he had gotten some feedback that he needed to extend his range and work on his shot and so he chose Duke partially to be able to have the opportunity to take advantage of their offensive style which would give him 3point looks in ways he wouldn't get at some other schools.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The Duke decision becomes even smarter when you take into account that he had gotten some feedback that he needed to extend his range and work on his shot and so he chose Duke partially to be able to have the opportunity to take advantage of their offensive style which would give him 3point looks in ways he wouldn't get at some other schools.
Well realistically it was either Duke or Kentucky as the only other official visit he made was to his hometown St Louis Billikens coming off a 12-21 season with a new coach and his deliberate style. Presuming he choose Duke or Kentucky, Tatum wasn't going to go wrong......although he may have left some money on the table by selecting Duke ;)
 

Imbricus

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the only other official visit he made was to his hometown St Louis Billikens coming off a 12-21 season
Which is where his dad played college ball. He apparently said after picking Duke that the Billikens were a close second, which would be another testament to his maturity, being able to say that with a straight face. ;)
 

BigSoxFan

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Which is where his dad played college ball. He apparently said after picking Duke that the Billikens were a close second, which would be another testament to his maturity, being able to say that with a straight face. ;)
Larry Hughes would like to have a word with you...
 

BaseballJones

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His game log is very interesting. Remember, just a rookie...

24 games played:
- Only 3 times has he been under 10 points.
- Only 7 times has he gotten fewer than 4 rebounds.
- Only 6 times has he had a negative +/- number.

In other words, just consistently good. Not usually a stat monster, but just usually, night in and night out, GOOD.

Nice, nice start to this kid's career.
 

snowmanny

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It's just too bad he has no shot at ROY because of another guy from last year's draft. He's the new Magic Johnson.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Anyone else miss the fact that JT is leading the entire fricking NBA in 3P%? With tonight's game, he's at 51.3%.

(Old friend KO is at .475.)

Guess the pre-draft questions about his shooting range can be pit to rest now, right.
 

djbayko

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Anyone else miss the fact that JT is leading the entire fricking NBA in 3P%? With tonight's game, he's at 51.3%.

(Old friend KO is at .475.)

Guess the pre-draft questions about his shooting range can be pit to rest now, right.
Unfortunately, I don't get to watch all the games (but I do watch all the game highlights on YouTube). But it seems like every single time I check the box score, Tatum has between 15-19 points. He's incredibly consistent, and he doesn't shoot a ton.

I think I'm more excited about him than any other aspect of the team, and there's a lot to be excited about at the moment.
 
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Imbricus

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The consistency has been amazing. Consider that a guy like Brown seems to yo-yo from game to game. Tatum is often in a sweet spot of 15 to 20 points. He had been starting games slow and finishing strong, but last night he had 14 at the end of the first quarter, and looked to be on his way to 30+, then was content to pass the ball away as the defense started picking him up more intensely.
 

tbrown_01923

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There was at least one time last night where he overpassed leading to a bad shot. I have an itch that basically is Tatum saying screw it, I am shooting every time I touch the ball tonight - just to see how that turns out... His flow inside of the offense is insane for a rook.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Anyone else miss the fact that JT is leading the entire fricking NBA in 3P%? With tonight's game, he's at 51.3%.

(Old friend KO is at .475.)

Guess the pre-draft questions about his shooting range can be pit to rest now, right.
And as for one of the other big questions- the long twos have been few and far between. Even when he gets into an iso, he's taking it to the rim and using his length to finish or kicking out if the drive isn't there. It just seems like he's a sponge in terms of learning and incorporating his coaching. Plus, his footwork's as good as advertised, his functional length and defensive instincts are much better than I expected and he has flashed enough with his handle to make me think it will become a real asset soon. If he's as coachable as he seems, and his shooting is anywhere close to what he has shown so far, he's going to be a foundational player in short order.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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And as for one of the other big questions- the long twos have been few and far between. Even when he gets into an iso, he's taking it to the rim and using his length to finish or kicking out if the drive isn't there. It just seems like he's a sponge in terms of learning and incorporating his coaching. Plus, his footwork's as good as advertised, his functional length and defensive instincts are much better than I expected and he has flashed enough with his handle to make me think it will become a real asset soon. If he's as coachable as he seems, and his shooting is anywhere close to what he has shown so far, he's going to be a foundational player in short order.
With respect to the long twos, it seems like the only time he's taking them is when he's attacking close-outs. In addition, according to BRef, after going 1-8 in October on shots greater than 16 feet but inside the 3P line, he's been 10-18 on those shots in November and December.

My only question: if he can extend his range from 20 feet to 23 feet in the course of one summer, how far back is going to be able to extend his range after a summer of NBA workouts?
 

Manzivino

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Unfortunately, I don't get to watch all the games (but I do watch all the game highlights on YouTube). But it seems like every single time I check the box score, Tatum has between 15-19 points. He's incredibly consistent, and he doesn't shoot a ton.

I think I'm more excited about him than any other aspect of the team, and there's a lot to be excited about at the moment.
The consistency has been amazing. Consider that a guy like Brown seems to yo-yo from game to game. Tatum is often in a sweet spot of 15 to 20 points. He had been starting games slow and finishing strong, but last night he had 14 at the end of the first quarter, and looked to be on his way to 30+, then was content to pass the ball away as the defense started picking him up more intensely.
10+ points in 13 straight games and 17 of 18, with the only exception being the Lakers game that he left with ankle soreness after 5 points in 9 minutes. The kid is legit.
 

BigSoxFan

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My list of players I trade Tatum straight up for with no questions asked (irrespective of need) is dwindling by the week. Think I’m at the following:

Simmons
Embiid
Porzingis
LeBron
Greek Freak
Wall
Towns
Westbrook
Curry
Durant
Harden
Kawhi
Davis