I don't think Kyrie is referencing Tyson freakin Chandler (in his 18th season btw) with that one but you guys are discussing it in another thread.
Celtics in 18-19
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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I think that Brown is destined to be moved on to another squad. He just doesn't have a broad enough game to fit as a fourth option and isn't quite good enough within his lane to displace any of the big three. I've always figured it would be to someone like Atlanta this June.
Rozier is also a good candidate to be moved for a 3&D guy.
Rozier is also a good candidate to be moved for a 3&D guy.
The difference between these Celtics and teams like the Warriors, Bucks, and Raptors is that they recognize when and where everywhere is getting there shots on the floor. These teams have a certain offensive flow from their scorers being in this comfort zone (call it chemistry if you wish). We don't have any of this......Jaylen has no idea when and where his shots are coming from, Tatum does on some nights but doesn't on others, while Hayward seems to still be figuring this out as well. Our spot-up and iso guys change on every possession which leads to players being uncertain and "thinking" on the floor rather than "reacting" which you cannot have and expect to maximize your talent. The latter two could be able to figure this out as the season progresses but Jaylen on this roster with his skillset feels like the proverbial square peg fitting into a round hole. His value is likely at its highest as well since he provides a team with cost-controlled years on top of his upside.
I don't know if Ainge pulls the trigger with anything prior to the deadline, a fairly major shakeup would not surprise me at all, but I'm certain that this will be a busy summer in balancing this roster into a cohesive unit as those teams listed above.
Let's say we put Jaylen on the block (not suggesting it but indulge me). What do we think a reasonable return would be? You have to think that he would be quite valuable to other teams. Would ATL give up their Dallas pick + a player like Prince? Probably not but maybe if we throw in our pick. I struggle to find a realistic scenario that makes sense for both the Celtics and the acquiring team.
I think it makes sense in most matchups.
Wouldn't he have made sense last night against Nurkic?
Was no one else frustrated watching Nurkic push everyone out of his way for offensive rebounds? Or Lillard just racing to the hoop every possesion because he can blow by Kyrie and not worry about having both Baynes and Horford on the floor to stop it?
Horfords greatest defensive asset is his versatility and switchability. It doesn't make sense to me to give that up to just throw him on the opponents best big and have to defend the post by himself so often. How many times do we have to see the point guard blow by Kyrie, Horford step up to stop the penetration, only to have Tatum or Hayward now have to switch on to the center and keep him out of the paint or off the boards? It's not working.
One of Tatum or Hayward has to step up and say starting isn't that important to them and be willing to come off the bench. Teams almost without exception start the games with their bigger lineups. It's crazy to me to start smaller and have your best post presence play against smaller lineups.
If PHO throws in 3 first round picks, I would be all for this
However, I think a Rozier + Brown package would fetch a pretty decent haul. However, they are only making 8 million dollars combined, so you are looking at generaly rookie scale players only (assuming we want to better this team now). Trade machine likes a Rozier + Brown for KAT though
I don't think you need to pitch in a draft pick to get the Hawks to trade a decent roleplayer and a top 5 protected pick for a guy that would blossom as a second option. I mean it's hip to be down on Jaylen and all, but his problem is just that he's not better than Kyrie or Jayson Tatum. On the Hawks he's probably a 20 p/g scorer. Especially playing off Trae Young.
It's so hard to find a fit because the Celtics don't have any bad matching salary.
Like, I could see a deal centered around Jaylen and Bradley Beal making sense if the Wizards are ready to break it up and the Celtics ownership is really willing to pay some deep luxury tax. But the Celtics have no way to match up the salary without wiping out their depth, and even if they were the Wizards might not want to take on a three for one deal with say Jaylen/Smart/Morris.
It's such a pain in the ass matching up star players a team might move on from for prospects since there's such a difference between their salaries and dudes on rookie deals.
They might be, but maybe the Celtics wouldn't because it weakens their rotation significantly. Of course, couldn't do it til January anyway because Smart just signed.
Was just pointing out NBA rules are a pain in this way. Like I bet if Washington would do it for Jaylen/Smart/Morris, they'd be just as likely to do it for something like Jaylen/Rozier/Memphis pick, which would be better for Boston as well, but isn't legal due to salary constraints.
They need a Theo Ratliff contract just to make a basketball trade.
nba cap talk makes my head hurt but would riff raff like yabu and wanamaker or whoever make enough of a difference salary wise to do that?
All this trade talk is unnecessary. The Celtics have phenomenal talent on good deals. Keep them all. Just a few things need to happen to get this team going:
1. Start playing more home games.
2. Don't play Hayward 30mins, cut that back to 20 mins. Carefully up his minutes over the next 3-4 months. Have him come off the bench, build some confidence against 2nd units. He can be the main facilitator with the 2nd unit. If he's having a good night, let him linger on the floor. Its such a long season not sure why Brad has to force this.
3. Start Baynes or Theis instead of Hayward. Brown, Tatum, Hordford and Kyrie constitute 4 offensive weapons. Let our BIG focus on D, setting screens/picks, rolling to the rim and hitting the offensive boards for tip outs.
4. A 2nd unit of Rozier, Smart, MaMo, Hayward, Theis is a weapon. Let them get some continuity playing together at the end of the 1st and 3rd Quarters and the beginning of the 2nd and 4th Quarters.
5. Use our small ball lineup judiciously, like the GSW, at the end of the 2nd Quarter and end of games.
1. Start playing more home games.
2. Don't play Hayward 30mins, cut that back to 20 mins. Carefully up his minutes over the next 3-4 months. Have him come off the bench, build some confidence against 2nd units. He can be the main facilitator with the 2nd unit. If he's having a good night, let him linger on the floor. Its such a long season not sure why Brad has to force this.
3. Start Baynes or Theis instead of Hayward. Brown, Tatum, Hordford and Kyrie constitute 4 offensive weapons. Let our BIG focus on D, setting screens/picks, rolling to the rim and hitting the offensive boards for tip outs.
4. A 2nd unit of Rozier, Smart, MaMo, Hayward, Theis is a weapon. Let them get some continuity playing together at the end of the 1st and 3rd Quarters and the beginning of the 2nd and 4th Quarters.
5. Use our small ball lineup judiciously, like the GSW, at the end of the 2nd Quarter and end of games.
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Mostly agree. Brad also needs to define guys' roles clearly, particularly in terms of primary scorer, secondary scorer, and support guys. Just that change would probably add the decisiveness they've been lacking.
Brad said after the game that the team was poorly coached atm, and I don't think it was false humility. The good news is that he's a smart, adaptable guy, so I imagine he'll reach similar conclusions.
Yes, agreed, and think Brad will address over the next 2 days.
6. Brad needs to define players roles and reign in some bad decision making.
a. Baynes, Theis, Smart need to be told that when they are on the floor, they are there for their defense, and not the primary scorer early in the shot clock unless they have an uncontested lay-up.
b. On offense contested long two-point shots, early in the shot clock, need to stop. Spread the court, drive hard to the hoop and either draw a foul, convert the lay-up OR kick out to a teammate. Tatum looks to have received the memo with his play last night.
I am fine with those three, and yes, even Smart, taking uncontested corner threes anytime
Brad will choose the specific message, but the key is that it be simple and easy to implement on the fly without too much thinking.
After reading this I would never believe that we have the leagues #1 overall defense with only 11 teams allowing fewer offensive rebounds than us. Our "best post presence" is playing 13 mpg to fill minutes on a second unit to give Horford a blow. I will never understand the fascination with having Aron Baynes play a larger role against a worse matchup for him.
A coach cannot define these roles as they occur organically through the flow of the players on the floor which is why roster construction at this level is so vital. Telling a player to do this or to do that takes a player out of their natural reactionary process and gets them to now "think" about what they are supposed to and not supposed to be doing. This is fine in youth leagues however the higher each level up you play the quicker your reactionary responses must be as your opponent is playing the game at that mental speed.
Last night in the game they showed the graphic that the defense in October was awesome. The defense in November blows. We've allowed: 113, 102, 115, 109, 123, and 100.
In October we held 4 teams under 100.
In November we're 24th in DEFRTG
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We also played two Top-5 offenses and two more Top-10 offenses in those 6 games. Based on our overall season along with a strong clue of our defense based on an entire season last year I'm going to suggest that defense is not a problem for this team in the big picture. I'm going to go with our 27th ranked offense being more of an issue than our #1 ranked defense.
I'm certainly no expert at breaking down game film, but check out this highlight video of the fourth (I think) game of the season last year against the Knicks vs. the first half of the Portland game last night. The ISO ball epidemic is worse than I thought. There isn't nearly as much off ball movement this season. Way too many stretches where guys are just standing around the perimeter watching someone jack up a mid-range jumper. Ball isn't hitting the paint nearly as often either which Brad was talking about a few games ago. What the hell is causing this? Lack of effort? Poor coaching? HRB's theory of too many chiefs and not enough Indians? I don't know, but I'm starting to get nervous.
I asked this in a game thread but there was a stat that this team has attempted more open shots than anyone else but they're 28th in FG% on open shots. I'm not sure how they calculate that or if that's right but it seems right to my eyes.
One thing you see is when those shots don't fall this team can't seem to get out of their own heads. It's like they become dejected and say "fuck it, it's ISO time". In Tatum's case you've definitely seen him chuck up a brick and then hang his head to the point where his D is nonexistent.
They definitely need to calm the hell down. My hope is once those shots start falling guys won't be so quick to abandon what's actually working and generating opportunities.
One thing you see is when those shots don't fall this team can't seem to get out of their own heads. It's like they become dejected and say "fuck it, it's ISO time". In Tatum's case you've definitely seen him chuck up a brick and then hang his head to the point where his D is nonexistent.
They definitely need to calm the hell down. My hope is once those shots start falling guys won't be so quick to abandon what's actually working and generating opportunities.
He should be playing closer to 20.
Playing against the best big guy isn't a worse matchup for him, he's wasted playing against smaller lineups.
It's like having a nasty lefty reliever but only using him in the 7th, even if there happens to be righties coming up that inning.
Stevens uses Baynes to buy minutes against 2nd units.....I don't see where he is nasty against any particular type player. Playing an inferior guy more minutes against better players does not sound like optimal strategy to me.
While no coach is infallible, I find it curious that a coaching staff with the current C's track record is being questioned about how they build their rotations. I agree with others that the team has been extremely frustrating to watch but its still early.
People forget that the abbreviated pre-season means that teams, including the Celtics, had little time to formulate their line-ups and roles. With Hayward and Kyrie back, its clearly had a knock-on effect on the rest of the team as others have alluded to upthread with guys like Tatum, Brown and even Rozier struggling to find their current roles. I trust the Celtics braintrust to figure this out and there really is no rush.
Regarding Baynes, I agree that putting him and Horford on the court together regularly is going to create some serious mismatch disadvantages for Boston. So the Celtics will be going from one set of problems to another. It reminds me of the calls for more rebounding help over the past few seasons. There are statistical arguments that supported that position, of course. However it was pretty clear that whatever Ainge, Zarren, Stevens and his staff look at suggests that whatever benefit extra rebounding would give them would be negated by something else, likely on the defensive side of things.
People forget that the abbreviated pre-season means that teams, including the Celtics, had little time to formulate their line-ups and roles. With Hayward and Kyrie back, its clearly had a knock-on effect on the rest of the team as others have alluded to upthread with guys like Tatum, Brown and even Rozier struggling to find their current roles. I trust the Celtics braintrust to figure this out and there really is no rush.
Regarding Baynes, I agree that putting him and Horford on the court together regularly is going to create some serious mismatch disadvantages for Boston. So the Celtics will be going from one set of problems to another. It reminds me of the calls for more rebounding help over the past few seasons. There are statistical arguments that supported that position, of course. However it was pretty clear that whatever Ainge, Zarren, Stevens and his staff look at suggests that whatever benefit extra rebounding would give them would be negated by something else, likely on the defensive side of things.
Man do I miss that Jaylen Brown from knicks game. He looks like a totally different player this year. What is up with him??
Posts like this remind me how lucky we are that Pitino et al. are no longer in this organization. Jaylen would be on the block, and we would get back hot garbage.
I honestly don't get how you can take highlight videos and talk about ball movement. I mean beyond the fact that most of the highlights are started halfway or more into the play, they are highlights, which means that ball always goes through the net.
The Cs are getting the most open looks of anyone in the NBA. Isn't that what an offense system is supposed to do - get open looks?
Also, when they miss open shots, they often can't set up their defense on the other end, which pushes down the DRtg.
Horford shot 18.8% on 3Ps on this road trip. GH is hitting 31.9% and I can't remember a contested 3 that he has taken. If Al and GH and Jaylen aren't going to hit open 3s, this team isn't going to go far.
It's because you keep calling him inferior, he's not.
He's inferior to Horford, but I'm not suggesting he should take any of Horfords minutes. I think he should take some of Roziers. I think Baynes is a better fit for this teams needs than Rozier is.
In a vacuum, Rozier is a better basketball player. For fit on this team, I think Baynes makes more sense.
The team doesn't need Baynes to take Roziers minutes though. Their defense is beyond fine this year. They need Rozier to no be terrible at scoring the basketball.
With respect to our discussion on the Cs and open shots, interesting visualization I saw on Reddit just now here: https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/9wjzn3/the_celtics_ability_to_generate_open_shots_is/. Here's the image (hopefully there are no statistical errors):
I've mentioned this in the past but if someone hasn't invented a program that tells us what the score of a basketball game should have been based on the quality of shots of each team.
I've mentioned this in the past but if someone hasn't invented a program that tells us what the score of a basketball game should have been based on the quality of shots of each team.
For those on mobile: From Gary Washburn via Twitter
Gordon Hayward said he will come off the bench if that’s what the #Celtics need https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/celtics/2018/11/13/gordon-hayward-said-will-come-off-bench-that-what-celtics-need/OXSxgTSln19RHdIaN5IphN/story.html … via @BostonGlobe
If/when he is fully healthy, Hayward in the Ginobili role would be pretty great. It would also allow you to rotate Baynes/Rozier/Smart/Morris as the 5th starter based on match ups although I'm guessing they'd mostly just go with Baynes.
A few posters on here said a 2nd unit of Baynes, Rozier, Smart, Morris and Theis could challenge for the 8 seed. I personally think they'd challenge for a top 3-5 pick, but replace Baynes with a fully health Hayward and maybe they would. Replace Theis with Hayward and it's even more of a possibility. There would be some pretty decent ball movement and some good 3 point shooters.
A few posters on here said a 2nd unit of Baynes, Rozier, Smart, Morris and Theis could challenge for the 8 seed. I personally think they'd challenge for a top 3-5 pick, but replace Baynes with a fully health Hayward and maybe they would. Replace Theis with Hayward and it's even more of a possibility. There would be some pretty decent ball movement and some good 3 point shooters.
Not exactly shocking, hopefully, Brad will take Gordon up on this.
Start Baynes, Smart or Theis instead of Hayward depending on the match-up.
But I suspect Brad would replace Gordon with MaMo.
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That's both discouraging and extremely encouraging at the same time. We could be doing so much better but you also have to assume that the team will eventually find it's level---the Gods of BABIP have not been kind so far this season.With respect to our discussion on the Cs and open shots, interesting visualization I saw on Reddit just now here: https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/9wjzn3/the_celtics_ability_to_generate_open_shots_is/. Here's the image (hopefully there are no statistical errors):
I've mentioned this in the past but if someone hasn't invented a program that tells us what the score of a basketball game should have been based on the quality of shots of each team.
We don't disagree--the way you'd set those roles is lineup changes. And it's also not impossible to slot guys into different roles: Tatum played well as a secondary option last year after a life as an alpha, and Morris has turned himself into more of a spotup guy and secondary creator/screen setter this year.
Long term, Hayward coming off the bench is not best for the Celtics. It may be while he finds his rhythm and works his way through the minutes restriction. But his playmaking on the floor with Kyrie for as many minutes as possible is how this team achieves its ceiling.
The way he's playing right now, the best candidate to come off the bench is Tatum. He's the worst offender in terms of taking shots outside the flow of the offense. If he wants to hone his Carmelo impression, he should do it with the second unit.
The way he's playing right now, the best candidate to come off the bench is Tatum. He's the worst offender in terms of taking shots outside the flow of the offense. If he wants to hone his Carmelo impression, he should do it with the second unit.
I agree that a shakeup is needed with so much redundancy in this lineup. My issue is that I don't see the shakeup being within this roster due TO the redundancy. I don't want to play Horford at the 4 and I don't see Morris bringing much of a different skillset than Hayward as they both handle and score the ball. Maybe Smart with the starters? Rozier? To me this seems like shuffling the deck with the same personnel. I do expect a couple changes to the lineup as this is what Brad has access to at this time...….assuming little changes I then expect Ainge to try and do what is necessary to improve the team by the deadline.
I agree pretty strongly with this. At points it has almost felt jarring seeing him subbed in and out at seemingly random times. Especially when he seems to be finding a groove or replaces a guy doing exceptionally well. He played 31 min in Portland, so maybe it is over.
Bill Simmons just tweeted one of those “Who says no” trades that work from a salary standpoint. Celtics and Warriors- C’s get Draymond and Shaun Livingston for Horford and Rozier.
I love Al but Draymond would be tough to pass on. I’ll leave it to the experts on the board to tell me why I’m nuts.
I love Al but Draymond would be tough to pass on. I’ll leave it to the experts on the board to tell me why I’m nuts.
I like Green too, but he's another guy that is best with the ball in his hands, facilitating others--be interesting to see how he, Kyrie, and even Hayward would work together.
Per the Trade Machine, that reduces the Celtics expected wins by 1.
Per the Trade Machine, that reduces the Celtics expected wins by 1.
Green would be great in Stevens system and would work well with Irving and even Hayward. Furthermore, despite the strong aversion some here have to him, I think Draymond would quickly endear himself to Celtics fans.
That said, the trade as proposed makes little sense for either side. Horford and Green are similar but play different roles for their squads (Green is essentially a combination of Horford and Smart). Rozier and Livingston are completely different players - Rozier would likely struggle with Livingston's role with the Warriors whereas Livingston might fit well with what Boston does.
In short, the Warriors would not do this trade. Green isn't likely to be going anywhere. He is almost impossible for Golden State to replace
That said, the trade as proposed makes little sense for either side. Horford and Green are similar but play different roles for their squads (Green is essentially a combination of Horford and Smart). Rozier and Livingston are completely different players - Rozier would likely struggle with Livingston's role with the Warriors whereas Livingston might fit well with what Boston does.
In short, the Warriors would not do this trade. Green isn't likely to be going anywhere. He is almost impossible for Golden State to replace
Taking Gordon out of the starting lineup is not about trying to win now instead of a long-term focus. It's about easing him back into play after a catastrophic injury. Paul George took a while to get back to being himself, Hayward will also need time. He has to be frustrated with his play. It's a very long season. He'd get plenty of minutes playing with Kyrie, etc coming off the bench. Let him build his confidence versus other teams 2nd stringers and eventually dominate in 4-5 months.
Tatum is fine, agreed he's taken too many contested long 2s early in the clock. I blame Kobe
. Jayson is such a talented 3pt shooter and driver, it is frustrating watching him settle for those mid-range jumpers. Last game against Portland he focused on 3 pointers. He got the memo, no reason to not start him.
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