Celtics in 18-19

BaseballJones

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I think this is the year Ainge is totally comfortable over-paying in a trade to get the guy he wants in the draft. It is great to have all of these draft picks going forward, but they just won’t have the roster space (or need) for them were they to keep all of their picks. With the Kyrie/Hayward/Horford core of veterans coupled with Brown/Tatum, you do what you got to do to get an elite-ish talent around that and make your run at championships.

Rozier+Sac 19+Memphis pick for a top 5 pick this year makes a TON of sense to me, and who cares if it ends up being a “loss” from a trade perspective going forward if you get the guy you want and he is legit.
Who would you think the right guy is for the Celtics if they get a top 5 pick?
 

Cesar Crespo

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It does? Chriss is abjectly horrendous at basketball. Can’t stay out of foul trouble, doesn’t shoot the ball well, and isn’t a great defender.
Didn't show much year over year improvement either, which is always a red flag. I'd prefer Bender but want neither.
 

BigSoxFan

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It does? Chriss is abjectly horrendous at basketball. Can’t stay out of foul trouble, doesn’t shoot the ball well, and isn’t a great defender.
I'm not in love with his game but he's still only 20 years-old and has flashed some potential in that dumpster fire of a situation. If I'm trading Rozier to Phoenix, I'm aiming for Bender over Chriss. Both players have major warts but they're young enough to potentially become useful with proper coaching.

In the end, given how close this team is to contending, I likely hold on to Rozier for 2018-2019 season if a guy like Chriss is the best we can do.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Many of us have settled on Jaren Jackson Jr. if he gets past Atlanta at #3.
I'm a Bamba guy and while Jackson has some insane tools there is something there that I'm not sold on even if I can't yet point a finger to it.

Right now, neither Chriss or Bender are more than a Yabu-type contributor to a playoff team. You know my feelings on Bender so I'd lean to Chriss who has the insane physical skills to possibly grow his floor game into. I don't really see Phoenix as a match though.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I think this is the year Ainge is totally comfortable over-paying in a trade to get the guy he wants in the draft. It is great to have all of these draft picks going forward, but they just won’t have the roster space (or need) for them were they to keep all of their picks. With the Kyrie/Hayward/Horford core of veterans coupled with Brown/Tatum, you do what you got to do to get an elite-ish talent around that and make your run at championships.

Rozier+Sac 19+Memphis pick for a top 5 pick this year makes a TON of sense to me, and who cares if it ends up being a “loss” from a trade perspective going forward if you get the guy you want and he is legit.
I'm going the other way. Cs are going to have several max salaries on the books. They will need as much cost-controlled talent as possible. If DA can keep finding NBA contributors in the back of the draft, that will help them much more than trying to get one superstar who they won't be able to re-sign after the rookie contract.
 

BaseballJones

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Bamba and Jackson each offer very different things to an NBA team. Jackson probably is better offensively now and may be more athletic. Long. Lacks NBA strength but that can relatively easily be improved. Not a very good rebounder for a guy with his size and athleticism. Just 5.8 boards per game for Michigan State. That would need to improve.

Bamba is a freak with his wingspan and ability to protect the rim. And his offensive game is improving. Pretty nice shooting mechanics actually, and so his range should improve.

Just depends on what Boston wants/needs. I see Bamba as a DeAndre Jordan but with offensive skills. I see Jackson as a guy who could be like a Chris Bosh. Both good options.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Bender guys?! We doing this again?

He had a 0-0-0 game in 37 minutes. He averaged 6 and 4 in 25 minutes on 38% shooting. He doesn’t defend. He’s not a great distributor

Why are we rushing to trade Terry for either Chriss or Bender? They’re both very bad. Could do a 30 for 30 on Phoenix taking both those guys in the top 10.
 

Saints Rest

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Things I would like to see
1) Rozier + BOS 1st to PHO for Chriss + future 1st
2) Smart taking the QO or signs a 3 year 30 million deal
3) Baynes resigned for 120% raise on a 2 year deal with year 2 partially guaranteed
4) Sign a knock down shooter with the mini mid level
What do people think are the chances that Marcus will decide to roll the dice on a QO? That seems like it could be ideal for the Celtics, at least in the short-term. If he were to sign the QO, would the Celt's retain Bird-rights on him?
 

amarshal2

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I'd argue that, given the tax and contract timelines, the Celtics, more than most other teams, should be trying to maximize variance in the future rather than minimizing it in the present.

EDIT: maximize variance wrt high-end draft picks, not overall team performance. And for lower draft picks, they'll probably be looking for solidish contributors.
I’m not sure what you mean. The Celtics already have a loaded roster. In this scenario, can’t it be argued that trading a bunch of upper mid-level assets for the opportunity at a home run IS maximizing variance both of team and draft picks? Seems that way to me.

I think perhaps you meant the opposite? That you’d rather minimize long-term team variance by keeping a bunch of upper mid-level future assets to help fill out needs in the salary cap era.
 

Big John

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If I'm dealing with McDonough, I'm going for the brass ring by offering Kyrie Irving and the Kings pick for Tyson Chandler and #1.

Ayton, Chandler
Horford Morris
Tatum Hayward
Brown Smart
Rozier #27

Not a bad lineup with Hayward as your 6th man. Or you can play Hayward, Tatum and Brown together with either Chandler or Horford at Center. Solves five issues:
1. Baynes replacement
2. Creates cap space to resign Smart at a market price
3. No need to roll the dice on a project big with #27 when good guards will still be available.
4. Chandler and Horford can mentor Ayton and accelerate his development
5. stay out of the repeater tax.
 

Marbleheader

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It's unfortunate Danny couldn't have gotten the SAC pick unprotected or just taken the Lakers pick and gambled that it would be top 10. As it is, the SAC pick is pretty much untradeable until next year's draft lottery. Let's say the SAC pick is #5 next year, isn't there a decent chance #10 this year is a comparable player? It's also a lot easier to move up from 10 than it is from 27.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'm a Bamba guy and while Jackson has some insane tools there is something there that I'm not sold on even if I can't yet point a finger to it.

Right now, neither Chriss or Bender are more than a Yabu-type contributor to a playoff team. You know my feelings on Bender so I'd lean to Chriss who has the insane physical skills to possibly grow his floor game into. I don't really see Phoenix as a match though.
I agree with you on Chriss/Bender's contributions. Can't see either being very useful during the playoffs. I really don't like either enough to trade Rozier. For me, it's either use Rozier as part of a deal to get into the top 5-6, to get a young guy with upside (like nighthob's Isaac idea), or keep him. I simply don't trust Kyrie's ability to stay healthy and Smart is 50/50 to return.
 

nighthob

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If he were to sign the QO, would the Celt's retain Bird-rights on him?
Yes. But the Bird Rights aren't transferrable on a QO deal, so the player has to approve any trade. In other words, if he's on a QO deal, you use the remaining time to groom his replacement because he'd have the same trade value as Tyreke Evans did last February.
 

Jimbodandy

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Regarding trading future picks pic now, I'm in the camp that thinks that the Memphis pick possibly NOT conveying any time soon is a feature, not a bug. Being about to add an impact rookie in a couple of years as salaries inflate is awesome. But moving Sac19+ in order to target someone this year is fine by me.
 

lovegtm

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I’m not sure what you mean. The Celtics already have a loaded roster. In this scenario, can’t it be argued that trading a bunch of upper mid-level assets for the opportunity at a home run IS maximizing variance both of team and draft picks? Seems that way to me.

I think perhaps you meant the opposite? That you’d rather minimize long-term team variance by keeping a bunch of upper mid-level future assets to help fill out needs in the salary cap era.
Yeah, I could have said that more clearly.

Basically what I mean is that the Celtics shouldn't be overpaying (which they almost certainly would be) to get premium draft assets now. They should be setting the team up to have premium draft assets in the future, even if they don't know whether, with the Memphis pick for example, the pick will be #2 or #13.

In the near term, it's probably better to just draft role player types in the 20s.

Of course, all else being equal, every team in the NBA would like to have a high pick in this year's draft. But all else is never equal, and fixating on a particular player, especially unproven college guys, is a great way to end up Colangeloing your team.
 

Big John

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Bender guys?! We doing this again?

He had a 0-0-0 game in 37 minutes. He averaged 6 and 4 in 25 minutes on 38% shooting. He doesn’t defend. He’s not a great distributor

Why are we rushing to trade Terry for either Chriss or Bender? They’re both very bad. Could do a 30 for 30 on Phoenix taking both those guys in the top 10.
Everyone knew Bender was at least two years away, and it's been two years. But goodness, I wouldn't offer Rozier for him. I'd offer Yabu and Nader, pointing out to Phoenix that if they draft Ayton, there won't be very many minutes for Bender, and he may become the next Hezonja.
 

lovegtm

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Everyone knew Bender was at least two years away, and it's been two years. But goodness, I wouldn't offer Rozier for him. I'd offer Yabu and Nader, pointing out to Phoenix that if they draft Ayton, there won't be very many minutes for Bender, and he may become the next Hezonja.
"Two years away" and "37 minutes without appearing in the box score" are not things of the same category lol.
 

HomeRunBaker

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What do people think are the chances that Marcus will decide to roll the dice on a QO? That seems like it could be ideal for the Celtics, at least in the short-term. If he were to sign the QO, would the Celt's retain Bird-rights on him?
Can you get below zero? Marcus taking the QQ to role the dice on putting up numbers as his minutes and role is reduced would be one of the all-time head scratchers imo. This is why players employ agents.....to avoid them making such terrible business decisions.

Sure it would be great for the Celtics.....generally speaking when a move it so lopsided in favor of the team it's a disaster of a move by the player.
 

DannyDarwinism

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If you're looking to kill some time, take a look at Suns' message boards, where they spend a lot of time arguing about who sucks worse between Chriss and Bender. Bad sign when fans of a rebuilding team hate their 20 year old lottery picks after year two.
 

Reverend

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It’s bizarro world Jayson and Jaylen.
Is anyone else feeling some strong vibes coming from this guy in college some of you are talking about...

"Jaren" I believe his name is? I dunno, something about him... though maybe not quite the perfect fit.
 
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Phragle

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If you're looking to kill some time, take a look at Suns' message boards, where they spend a lot of time arguing about who sucks worse between Chriss and Bender. Bad sign when fans of a rebuilding team hate their 20 year old lottery picks after year two.
Who would have thought?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Chriss' appears to be a Tyrus Thomas type, showing some flashy athletic stuff but not actually a good defender and very limited on O. Will need to become a good 3pt shooter at least. Marcus Smart is more useful to a good team at the 4 spot than Chriss.
 

nighthob

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Is anyone else feeling some strong vibes coming from this guy in college some of you are talking about...

"Jaren" I believe his name is? I dunno, something about him... though maybe not quite the perfect fit.
Jaren Jackson Jr. You'd need to start calling them the J Crew rather than the Jay Crew, but then Jackson's got lots of Js to make it work.

More seriously he looks like the sort of player that Stevens talks about. He's extremely long, extremely athletic, has a frame that looks like it could carry another 20-25 pounds without any loss of athleticism. He shoots well, has a nice all round game.

I think Bagley's better, if only because he has that scorer's mentality. But Jackson will be much better on the defensive end, and Boston's not really concerned with adding more alphas.
 

InstaFace

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Is anyone else feeling some strong vibes coming from this guy in college some of you are talking about...

"Jaren" I believe his name is? I dunno, something about him... though maybe not quite the perfect fit.
It's be pretty fun to be able to talk about Jaylen, Jayson and Jaren, as a collective.

Make it happen, theo.
 

Reverend

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Jaren Jackson Jr. You'd need to start calling them the J Crew rather than the Jay Crew, but then Jackson's got lots of Js to make it work.

More seriously he looks like the sort of player that Stevens talks about. He's extremely long, extremely athletic, has a frame that looks like it could carry another 20-25 pounds without any loss of athleticism. He shoots well, has a nice all round game.

I think Bagley's better, if only because he has that scorer's mentality. But Jackson will be much better on the defensive end, and Boston's not really concerned with adding more alphas.
It's be pretty fun to be able to talk about Jaylen, Jayson and Jaren, as a collective.

Make it happen, theo.
Yeah--"Y-not", right?
 

mauf

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Bamba and Jackson each offer very different things to an NBA team. Jackson probably is better offensively now and may be more athletic. Long. Lacks NBA strength but that can relatively easily be improved. Not a very good rebounder for a guy with his size and athleticism. Just 5.8 boards per game for Michigan State. That would need to improve.

Bamba is a freak with his wingspan and ability to protect the rim. And his offensive game is improving. Pretty nice shooting mechanics actually, and so his range should improve.

Just depends on what Boston wants/needs. I see Bamba as a DeAndre Jordan but with offensive skills. I see Jackson as a guy who could be like a Chris Bosh. Both good options.
Rebounding is one of the few areas where college stats are highly predictive of pro performance. Put another way, subpar rebounding is a deficiency that’s harder to fix than other deficiencies in a 19-20 year old’s game might be. So if you’re going to bet big on Jackson, I think you need to think he projects as a poor man’s Durant, because I doubt he’ll ever rebound well enough to merit the Bosh comparison. (Or alternatively, you have to think rebounding matters less than it once did — Horford was a terrific rebounder early in his career, but it’s a much less important part of his game now than it once was.)

Bamba is fascinating, but I’m not sure he fits on the C’s. In addition to Brad’s preference for bigs who can stretch the floor, I think Bamba is too raw to earn minutes on a contending team, and he’s not going to develop properly with his ass stapled to the bench.
 

SteveF

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I think you need to think he projects as a poor man’s Durant, because I doubt he’ll ever rebound well enough to merit the Bosh comparison.
The appeal of Jackson is he can switch on defense and can never be played off the floor in the modern game. When he switches onto a point guard on defense, he won't get blown by off the dribble. He can "guard" Durant. He can "guard" LeBron. He can stay on the floor with whatever other 4 guys you surround him with, including another big because he can still space the floor on offense.

The rebounding is a definite flaw, though. That said, the guy guarding LeBron or Durant isn't going to have the same rebounding opportunities as the guys not guarding LeBron or Durant.

Still, Jackson might be best served playing alongside another big.

Jackson is really the only guy I'd consider for the #1 pick outside of Doncic.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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Rebounding is one of the few areas where college stats are highly predictive of pro performance. Put another way, subpar rebounding is a deficiency that’s harder to fix than other deficiencies in a 19-20 year old’s game might be. So if you’re going to bet big on Jackson, I think you need to think he projects as a poor man’s Durant, because I doubt he’ll ever rebound well enough to merit the Bosh comparison. (Or alternatively, you have to think rebounding matters less than it once did — Horford was a terrific rebounder early in his career, but it’s a much less important part of his game now than it once was.)

Bamba is fascinating, but I’m not sure he fits on the C’s. In addition to Brad’s preference for bigs who can stretch the floor, I think Bamba is too raw to earn minutes on a contending team, and he’s not going to develop properly with his ass stapled to the bench.
JJJ only averaged in the low 20’s in minutes per game at MSU as a freshman. There were a lot of rebounders on that squad so I don’t take much stock in his 5.8 average.
 

mauf

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The appeal of Jackson is he can switch on defense and can never be played off the floor in the modern game. When he switches onto a point guard on defense, he won't get blown by off the dribble. He can "guard" Durant. He can "guard" LeBron. He can stay on the floor with whatever other 4 guys you surround him with, including another big because he can still space the floor on offense.

The rebounding is a definite flaw, though. That said, the guy guarding LeBron or Durant isn't going to have the same rebounding opportunities as the guys not guarding LeBron or Durant.

Still, Jackson might be best served playing alongside another big.

Jackson is really the only guy I'd consider for the #1 pick outside of Doncic.
Oh, I don’t think it’s necessarily a deal-breaker. I’m just saying I don’t think it’s wise to pick JJJ thinking he’s likely to develop into a good NBA rebounder — you have to assume he’ll always be a bit deficient in that area relative to other guys his size. (Though @Soxfan in Fla makes a good point about JJJ’s relatively limited minutes making that RB average look worse than it is.)
 

the moops

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Yea, the 0-0-0 thing in 37 minutes is completely made up. Maybe check game logs first before an outrageous claim like that is made? He has only played more than 37 minutes 4 times in this past season, and he scored 14, 20, 8, and 15 points in those games. He did score zero points in a 36 1/2 minute performance, but had 6 rebounds and 4 assists.

I was the one who started this Bender or Chriss thing. It seems that most of you missed that the hypothetical included a PHO first round pick. The Bender or Chriss were just to even out the money and to take a flier on a guy.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Yea, the 0-0-0 thing in 37 minutes is completely made up. Maybe check game logs first before an outrageous claim like that is made? He has only played more than 37 minutes 4 times in this past season, and he scored 14, 20, 8, and 15 points in those games. He did score zero points in a 36 1/2 minute performance, but had 6 rebounds and 4 assists.

I was the one who started this Bender or Chriss thing. It seems that most of you missed that the hypothetical included a PHO first round pick. The Bender or Chriss were just to even out the money and to take a flier on a guy.
Sorry, was going off of memory. But a 0 pt 36.5 minute game is pretty hilarious in its own right.

After checking game logs he had multiple 20plus min games w 0 points.

I don’t want to take a flyer on Bender or Chriss, and the last thing Boston needs is more future conditional picks.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Why woukd you not want future picks? There is a decent chance that LAC pick becomes a 2nd and the MEM pick conveys in a year or two. I would think having a PHO first round pick in 2020 or beyond would be pretty ideal
If I’m moving off Rozier I don’t want the centerpiece to be a 2020 conditional first w protections.

They want to go unprotected? Fine. But that’s not going to happen.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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McDonough won't make a trade that could be considered even remotely favorable to Ainge. That means no un- or low-protected picks in any such deal, whether or not he can even expect to be around long enough as Phoenix's GM for it to really hurt.

He's still wounded from the IT trade fall-out (and his whole tenure in general). Remember how smug he was in the aftermath of the news about Josh Jackson not working out for the Celtics as if McD had played Ainge for a fool.
 

the moops

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If I’m moving off Rozier I don’t want the centerpiece to be a 2020 conditional first w protections.
The alternative is to let him walk at the end of next year. They can't afford to pay a backup PG the kind of money he will command. His peak trade value is now. I think you gotta get what you can
 

BigSoxFan

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The alternative is to let him walk at the end of next year. They can't afford to pay a backup PG the kind of money he will command. His peak trade value is now. I think you gotta get what you can
I think it depends on the return and Smart situation. If all I can get for Rozier is a mid-to-late 1st, I’m keeping him and giving myself a valuable insurance policy for Kyrie, a guy who misses games every year, and the ability to keep Kyrie’s regular season minutes down. Barring LeBron going to Philly, this team is the odds on favorite to come out of the East and I’d be perfectly ok with keeping Rozier and letting him walk if the return is mediocre.

Next year, we could have upwards of 4 picks in the first round so a replacement could be selected then. Or, Ainge could take a guy like Brunson this year and give him a year of development.
 

DJnVa

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The appeal of Jackson is he can switch on defense and can never be played off the floor in the modern game. When he switches onto a point guard on defense, he won't get blown by off the dribble. He can "guard" Durant. He can "guard" LeBron. He can stay on the floor with whatever other 4 guys you surround him with.
Remember when Izzo pulled him late against Syracuse due to defense. I don’t know what to make of that.
 

southshoresoxfan

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The alternative is to let him walk at the end of next year. They can't afford to pay a backup PG the kind of money he will command. His peak trade value is now. I think you gotta get what you can
So his value is high so you have to sell low for Chriss and a future first?

I’m not the least bit concerned w Ainges asset management. There’s lots of question marks around Rozier, Smart and this years draft, but selling low on Rozier won’t happen. They’d rather the year insurance policy and then let him walk. That’s more valuable than a package like the theoretical Phoenix one.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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Remember when Izzo pulled him late against Syracuse due to defense. I don’t know what to make of that.
No. Izzo pulled him because he felt he couldn’t handle the middle of the zone on offense. So instead of just swapping him into the wing with Bridges he benched him for a guy that averaged under a basket a game. Dumbest decision I’ve ever seen Izzo make as an MSU fan.